Despite worldwide policy efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol, the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) remains a negative externality. Economic equilibrium paths in the presence of such an uncorrected externality are inefficient; as a consequence there is no real economic opportunity cost to correcting this externality by mitigating global warming. Mitigation investment using resources diverted from conventional investments can raise the economic well-being of both current and future generations. The economic literature on GHG emissions misleadingly focuses attention on the intergenerational equity aspects of mitigation by using a hybrid constrained optimal path as the "business-as-usual" benchmark. We calibrate a simple Keynes-Ramsey growth model to illustrate the significant potential Pareto-improvement from mitigation investment, and to explain the equilibrium concept appropriate to modeling an uncorrected negative externality.

We investigate the role of leasing in the lending boom in Central and South Eastern Europe (CEE and SEE). We contribute by (1) providing a full picture of the financing situation in Eastern Europe, where leasing plays a more important role than elsewhere; (2) by investigating the finance-growth-nexus for ten Eastern European countries with a panel data approach over 1999-2006; (3) by extending the production function approach (credit, stock, bond) and the law-and-financeview for leasing. We find that leasing and credit positively contributed to economic growth. However, leasing and credit are complements and not substitutes as suggested partly by previous research in other regions. We conclude that leasing cannot be used to circumvent proper regulation by policy makers or market participants, and that alternative forms of finance need to be included for a full picture of the finance-growth link. / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

Intresset för relationen mellan aktiemarknaden och den ekonomiska tillväxten har funnits sedan länge. Tidigare forskning har visat på olika resultat, vissa forskare menar att det finns ett positivt samband medan andra menar på att det inte finns något samband eller att det finns ett negativt samband mellan aktiemarknaden och den ekonomiska tillväxten. Studien huvudsakliga syfte var att analysera förhållandet mellan aktiemarknaden och den ekonomiska tillväxten i Sverige. Studien avgränsades till att undersöka kvartalsdata från Sverige under tidsperioden 1987–2016, detta gav ett urval på 120 mätpunkter. Data samlades in och analyserades i ett statistikprogram genom en korrelationsanalys och en regressionsanalys. Resultatet visade att det finns ett positivt signifikant samband mellan aktiemarknaden och den ekonomiska tillväxten i Sverige. Resultatet visade även att det finns ett negativt signifikant samband mellan inflationen och den ekonomiska tillväxten i Sverige, samt att det finns ett positivt signifikant samband mellan investeringar och den ekonomiska tillväxten i Sverige. / For a long time, there has been an interest for the relationship between the stock market and economic growth. Previous research has shown mixed results, some researchers concluded that there is a positive relationship, while others concluded that there is no or a negative relationship between the stock market and economic growth. The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between the stock market and the economic growth in Sweden. The study was limited to examining quarterly data from Sweden during the period 1987-2016, this gave a population of 120 measurement points. Data was collected and analyzed in a statistic program by a correlation analysis and a regression analysis. The result showed that there is a positive significant correlation between the stock market and the economic growth in Sweden. The result also showed that there is a negative significant relationship between the inflation and the economic growth in Sweden, and that there is a positive significant correlation between investment and the economic growth in Sweden. / <p>Betyg D, 170601</p>

La croissance économique est un indicateur majeur pour évaluer la capacité d'un pays à améliorer le niveau de bien-être de sa population. La littérature économique associe la croissance à une progression vigoureuse et sur une longue période de la production totale, ou de celle par tête. Le rythme de la croissance correspond au taux de croissance de la production et du revenu sur le long terme. Les économistes de la révolution industrielle ont identifié dans l'accumulation du capital, le moteur de ce mouvement. L'investissement, élément particulier de la demande, puisqu'il permet d'augmenter le stock de capital, est également susceptible d'augmenter les capacités de production. La réalisation de la croissance est un objectif essentiel de la politique économique. Dans le modèle de Ramsey, la croissance repose essentiellement sur l'accumulation du capital matériel. Il est donc fondamental d'étudier les facteurs qui favorisent cette accumulation à long-terme, ou qui au contraire viennent la freiner. Parmi ces facteurs se trouvent les déterminants de l'épargne. / The economic growth is a major indicator which estimates a country's capacity to improve its population well-being level. The economic literature associates economic growth with an increase of either a total or per capita supported production on the long time. The growth rhythm corresponds to the production rate and the income growth rate on the long term. The economists of the industrial revolution has identified in the capital accumulation, the dynamic of that movement. Investment is a particular element of the demand, since it allows to increase the capital stock, and thus to increase the production capacities. Growth realization is an essential aim of the economic policy. ln Ramsey's model the growth bases essentially on the physical capital accumulation. So it is fundamental to study the factors which favor this accumulation in the long term or slow it down on the contrary. Among these factors are the determiners of savings.

We propose the use of Latent Class Analysis methods to analyze the covariate inclusion patterns across specifications resulting from Bayesian model averaging exercises. Using Dirichlet Process clustering, we are able to identify and describe dependency structures among variables in terms of inclusion in the specifications that compose the model space. We apply the method to two datasets of potential determinants of economic growth. Clustering the posterior covariate inclusion structure of the model space formed by linear regression models reveals interesting patterns of complementarity and substitutability across economic growth determinants.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / E. Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation explores the relationships between three groups of variables in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), from 1989 to 2003. The first group consists of output level and output growth as measured by gross domestic product index (GDPI) and gross domestic product growth (GDPG). The second group consists of two categories of institutional development (INST), and the third group of variables is structural policy reforms (SPR), often known as liberalization policies. This dissertation’s theoretical and empirical framework explicitly account for the endogeneity between output performance variables, the measures of institutional development and SPR. Several empirical specification models of the theoretical simultaneous system of three equations are estimated. In the first group of specification models the dependent endogenous variables are GDPG, SPR and INST, while in the second group the dependant endogenous variables are GDPI, SPR and INST. Moreover, two datasets are used. The first dataset has data from 1989 to 2003, thus covering the whole transition period, while the second dataset is a subset of the first one, containing data for the recovery stage of transition only. The empirical methods used in this dissertation include panel data analysis, principal component analysis, two stages least squares approach and three stage least squares approach in the presence of a SUR modeling procedure. With respect to the output performance equation, the findings of this research indicate that institutional reform (INSTREF), and property rights and contract enforcement institutions (PCINST and ROLINST) are very important determinants of output levels when the whole transition period dataset is used, and very important determinants of both the output levels and output growth rates when the recovery stage dataset is used. While the effect of current SPR is ambiguous, the effect of lagged SPR on output and output growth is positive. Moreover, SPR continue to affect output performance via their indirect effect on institutional development. With respect to the institutional reforms, and property rights and contract enforcement institutions, two sets of determinants were found to be important. On the side of the demand factors, SPR, and especially lagged SPR is found to be an important determinant of both institutional reforms and property rights and contract enforcement institutions. On the side of supply factors, macroeconomic stabilization, a measure of the state’s capacity to implement institutional reform, resulted very important in explaining the variation in institutional reform and property rights and contract enforcement institutions. Political reform, in terms of a shift from the autarkic political regime to a democratic political regime, is found to positively affect institutional development in the recovery stage. With respect to the structural policy reforms’ equations, this dissertation’s main finding is that political reform positively affects SPR in both datasets. Moreover, lagged SPR is found to positively affect SPR, which is an indication of transition governments’ maintained commitment to a package of SPR-s.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lloyd B. Thomas Jr / Dennis L. Weisman / This dissertation has focused primarily on the relationship between aggregate private output and a measure of the public fixed capital stock for the U.S. economy using two different approaches for the years 1947-2005. The study starts with a brief survey of the existing literature on the relationship between private output and public capital and continues with an analysis of data on some macroeconomic variables related to private output and public capital. It employs a production function approach to provide empirical estimates and analyze its econometric problems, and continues with a vector autoregression (VAR) model. It uses two criteria, the Akaike Information Criterion and the Schwartz Bayesian Criterion, to compare the performance of the two models tested. There are several differences between this study and the existing literature. The most important difference is that each of the other studies uses only a single approach to analyze the relationship between the public capital stock and private economic growth while this study uses two different methodologies to analyze the same relationship and tests the two models using the same aggregate macroeconomic annual data on the U.S. economy from 1947 to 2005. This study represents the first attempt to provide estimates of the elasticities of private output with respect to the private capital stock, private labor stock, public nonmilitary capital stock, and public core infrastructure capital stock by employing two different approaches so that the comparison of the elasticities resulting from the two different approaches can be most meaningful. Moreover, this study also represents the first attempt to provide estimates of the marginal products of the above four inputs. Second, the studies that employ a production function approach are ad hoc and so is the production function approach of this study, but the production function approach section of this study is the only one having an explicit capital evolution equation for both the private and the public capital stock. All of the other studies using annual data use aggregate macroeconomic data on related variables for less than thirty years while this study employs aggregate data from 1947 to 2005 (fifty nine years). Lastly, the other production function studies are incomplete in the sense that they either do not attempt to deal with some major econometric problems such as a common trend (resulting in a spurious correlation) and the direction of the causation or when they do acknowledge major econometric problems, they do not do anything to correct them. This study, on the other hand, will try to detect major econometric problems. Once the problem is detected, the study will employ measures to deal with the problem. Major findings of this study are as follows. First, the causation runs from the public fixed capital stock to private output rather than in the other direction. Second, most of the studies in the existing literature report a positive impact of the private fixed capital stock on private output that is too small to be credible, whereas they report a positive impact of the public fixed capital stock on private output that is too large to be credible. However, the estimates of this study suggest not only a positive impact of the public capital stock on private output that seems credible but also a positive and very large impact of the private capital stock on private output. Third, the results of several joint hypothesis tests conducted show that there is enough sample evidence to claim that not only that the private sector operates under constant returns to scale in all inputs, private and public, for the years 1947-2005 but also that the private fixed capital stock is more important to the aggregate private production process than either of the two measures of the public fixed capital stock.

[pt] Atualmente pode ser observado um cenário onde a expectativa é de uma enorme pressão sobre a demanda energética futura, as alarmantes consequências das emissões de dióxido de carbono na atmosfera e a realização do abastecimento energético seguro e com certo grau de previsibilidade. Assim torna-se essencial o desenvolvimento de métodos sustentáveis de geração e consumo energético. Baseado neste contexto, o presente estudo visa aprofundar o entendimento da relação entre o consumo de energia renovável e o crescimento econômico para um painel de doze países em desenvolvimento entre o os anos de 2003-2013. O teste de raiz unitária de Levin, Li e Chu bem como o modelo de dados em painel foi utilizado para inferir a relação causal entre as variáveis. O resultado revelou uma relação causal entre o PIB real, consumo de energias renováveis e formação bruta de capital fixo, como consequência dos seus respectivos coeficientes positivos e estatisticamente significativos. Entretanto, não pode ser verificado uma relação causal entre crescimento econômico e a força de trabalho. / [en] Nowadays, a scenario can be observed where the expectation is that there will be enormous pressure on future energy demand, the alarming consequences of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere and the realization of a secure supply of energy with a certain degree of predictability. Thus, the development of sustainable energy generation and consumption methods is essential. Based on this context, this study aims to deepen the understanding of the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth for a panel of twelve developing countries between the years 2003-2013. The Levin, Li and Chu unit root test as well as the panel data model were used to infer the causal relationship between the variables. The result revealed a causal relationship between real GDP, renewable energy consumption and gross fixed capital formation, as a consequence of their respective positive and statistically significant coefficients. However, a causal relationship between economic growth and the labor force can not be verified.

Les infrastructures de transport sont des biens publics dont l'importance a été démontrée dans la littérature économique depuis les travaux fondateurs des nouvelles théories de la croissance endogène, de la nouvelle économie géographique, ainsi que les études empiriques menées dans plusieurs pays. Notre travail de recherche s'intéresse aux infrastructures de transport dans les pays en développement (PED) avec une application au cas du Maroc.La thèse se présente en deux parties, la première met en évidence le rôle des infrastructures de transport dans l'économie à travers une revue de la littérature théorique et empirique ainsi que la présentation des différentes approches économétriques de modélisation du capital public. Nous étudions le cas du Maroc à travers une étude économétrique par un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur permettant d'analyser les relations dynamiques à long terme entre capital public et PIB ainsi que les effets de causalité. Puis, nous démontrons avec un modèle autorégressif l'impact des investissements autoroutiers sur le PIB/hab et l'amélioration de l'accessibilité.La deuxième partie de la thèse s'intéresse aux effets des infrastructures de transport sur la croissance des 16 régions marocaines et les disparités entre ces régions sous l'effet du capital public routier et autoroutier. Nous nous basons dans notre recherche, sur les travaux de Charlot (1999) et Charlot et Schmitt (2002) sur les régions françaises, sur les travaux de Marquez, Ramajo et Hewings (2011) s'intéressant au rôle du capital public sur la croissance régionale des provinces espagnoles, ainsi que sur de l'étude de Malyadi (2011) pour le cas du Maroc. Du point de vue théorique, notre approche se situe au croisement des théories de la croissance endogène et de la nouvelle économie géographique.La progression de la thèse se fait dans un ordre décroissant en termes d'espace étudié, partant du cadre national au cadre régional en terminant par un cas local de l'industrie automobile au Maroc pour explorer les liens entre infrastructure de transport et industrialisation régionale / Transport infrastructures are public goods. Their importance is demonstrated in the literature since the seminal works of the endogenous growth theory, new economic geography, as well as empirical studies conducted in several countries. Our research focuses on the transport infrastructure in developing countries with an application to the case of Morocco. This thesis is divided in two parts. The first one highlights the role of transport infrastructure in the economy through a review of theoretical and empirical literature and the presentation of different econometric modeling approaches. Then, we study the case of Morocco by using econometric approach of vector error correction model to analyze the long-term dynamic relationships between GDP, public capital and the causality effects. Then, we demonstrate with an autoregressive model the impact of highway investments on GDP / capita and improving accessibility. The second part of our research focuses on the effects of transport infrastructure on the economic growth of 16 Moroccan regions, and the differences between these regions as a result of road and highway public capital allocation. We follow in our research Charlot (1999), Charlot and Schmitt (2002) on French regions, and Marquez, Ramajo and Hewings (2011) applied on Spanish provinces. After, we study the evolution of urban primacy in Morocco by focusing our analysis to the structural role of transport infrastructure. We use gravity models to explore spatial interactions between Moroccan regions. Finally, we are interested in the region of Tangier in Morocco. We study the case of the Tangier-Med port as transport infrastructure. We analyze the impacts of this port on the economic dynamics of this region and the location of productive activities.

This paper is a first attempt to empirically evaluate some competing hypotheses for the Austrian growth performance. We find that the real appreciations, gross investment, a low duration of unemployment and high youth employment exhibit a significant influence on economic growth. This validates the hard currency policy hypothesis, the macroeconomic management hypothesis, and the microinstitutions hypothesis, whilst all other fail according to this exercise. In particular, we find the Schulmeister-thesis of loose money and the deficit spending hypothesis are even counterfactual. Summarizing, we find that economic policy had its share in promoting growth in the Austrian economy. As a byproduct from our analysis, we find that low levels of unemployment have a significant and positive impact on the growth rate of real GDP, which calls for further theoretical research in this direction. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"