The thesis aims to defend the irreplaceable role of the Austrian business cycle theory in explaining the current financial crisis in the U.S.. Attention is also paid to applied measures of American economic policies and their impact on the elimination of the purification process of the recession. Furthermore, the work deals with the identification of preventive measures, which would reduce the likelihood of the occurrence of economic cycles. Recommendations by representatives of the Austrian School are described as difficult to implement on the basis of number of arguments. In the work are therefore proposed more realistic measures to limit the volatility of the economic cycle, which emanate mainly from the composite price index, which is the subject of this text. The index reflects the price development in all stages of production and should therefore in monetary policy matters replace the current use of price indicators, based on the inflated scale of consumption, taking into account only minimal effects of monetary expansion. The work deals with the calculation of the composite price index for the United States, which used the instrument of Skounsen indicator of gross domestic output. The development of the composite price index in the US is then analyzed and compared with the development of other macroeconomic variables. Based on this examination, we recommend the use of composite price index for monetary policy regime of inflation targeting and the implementation thereof by the Federal Reserve monetary policy.

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The function of the construction industry in an economy has proven to be beneficial, especially during the economic downturn. The nature of the products of the construction industry makes it possible for the government to utilise the industry as a means to accelerate and multiply the economy by utilising the fiscal budget to build infrastructures. By so doing, the economy will be multiplied as the construction industry is an industry that produces investment goods. However, due to the nature of the Malaysian construction sector, the expenses required to stimulate the economy could not be made to the maximum extent, as the industry relies heavily on immigrant construction workers to address its labour supply problem. Immigrant construction workers are known for their high tendency to remit their salary to their country of their origin. This scenario disturbs the economic cycle within the Malaysian economy and, hence, dampens the function of the construction industry as the multiplier-accelerator provider. This research was undertaken to better manage the cash flow economic cycle leakage by adopting some economic measures coupled with improvised management of immigrant construction workers exercised through legislation. The adopted research methodology used transformative mixed-methods to balance the limitations of a single research approach. A literature review of the economic models and tools were conducted in a search for the most suitable measures, while attempting to understand the nature of construction industry by highlighting the structure and the problems associated with the industry. Special attention was also given to investigate the motivation behind the human migration to justify and support the research. Other than issues involving the use of immigrant workers, special attention was given to issues of remittances and its impacts on the global economy. The findings underpinned by literature and the research findings were used to develop the conceptual framework to manage the economic cycle leakage that is entrenched in the construction industry s economic cycle. The integrated framework consists of economic, management and legislation and was developed to address the issues highlighted. The use of economic tools can only be materialised through better management and the execution of legislation. The framework was encapsulated in a combination of process protocol and a maturity framework to allow time for the policy makers to implement it. Considerations have been made to develop the framework to ensure the smooth transition its implementation. The framework was self-validated through formative evaluations where data were attained from several parties to reduce any bias perspective. In addition, most of the measures suggested were derived from interviews conducted among the respondents. Several benefits of the framework were identified. It is concluded that the impact of immigrant construction workers employment can be managed by considering the appropriate tools in the form of economic, managerial and legislation measures. This research has developed an integrated process protocol maturity framework that addresses the three aforementioned aspects. The framework is simple and easily understandable with detailed activity zones that entail specific tasks that must implemented by different parties. The developed framework is expected to aid the authorities in managing immigrant construction in Malaysia and to effectively manage these workers. The framework also allows time for its implementation through the maturity stages suggested.

Bakalauro baigiamajame darbe nagrinėjama viena opiausių šių dienų ekonominių ir socialinių problemų – spartus nedarbo augimas ir gyventojų užimtumo mažėjimas. Tokius ryškius darbo rinkos pokyčius sąlygojo pasaulinė ekonominė ir finansų krizė ir ją lydintis ekonomikos nuosmukis. Teoriniu aspektu atskleista darbo rinkos samprata, ją sudarantys elementai, nedarbo pokyčius lemiančios priežastys. Taip pat, remiantis kitų šalių patirtimi, atskleista, kaip ekonominiai svyravimai įtakoja darbo rinką, užimtumą ir nedarbą, koks ryšys egzistuoja tarp ciklinio ekonomikos svyravimo ir nedarbo lygio. Empirinėje darbo dalyje įvairių statistinių metodų pagalba įvertinta ir atskleista situacija Šiaulių apskrities darbo rinkoje. 1999-2009 m. laikotarpiu analizuojama Šiaulių apskrities nedarbo lygio ir BVP augimo tempo dinamika, vyrų, moterų ir jaunimo nedarbo bei struktūriniai darbo rinkos pokyčiai. Vertinamas Šiaulių apskrities užimtųjų ir bedarbių skaičiaus kitimas Lietuvos Respublikos kontekste. Atlikus Šiaulių apskrities darbo rinkos analizę, buvo statistiškai įvertintos 2010-2012 m. optimistinės, pesimistinės ir labiausiai tikėtinos darbo rinkos perspektyvos. / Bachelor Final work examines one of the most delicate economic and social problems of nowadays – the rapid growth of unemployment growth and employment declining. Such sharp changes of labour market were caused by global economic and financial crisis and the consequence of this crisis is economic downturn. Theoretical aspect disclosed the concept of labour market, its composition and determining causes of unemployment. It is also based on experience of other countries. Theoretical part of the work shows what influence the economic fluctuations have on the labour market, employment, unemployment, and basically what kind of relationships can be reflected between cyclical economic fluctuations and unemployment. A variety of statistical methods were used to identify and disclose the actual situation of Šiauliai region labour market in empirical part. During the period between in 1999-2009, the analysis of Šiauliai region unemployment rate and GDP growth rate dynamics, men, women and youth unemployment and the structural changes in the labour market was accomplished. It identified the changes in numbers of employed and unemployed people of Šiauliai region in the context of the Republic of Lithuania. After the analysis of Šiauliai region labour market, the optimistic, pessimistic and most likely labour market prospects based on statistical in 2010-2012 were evaluated.

The thesis evaluates relationship between probability of default of non-financial corporations and households and evolution of macroeconomic environment. This work contributes to the literature of credit risk proving importance of macroeconomic variables in determining the PDs both on aggregate level and for sector of non-financial corporations and sector of households in the Czech Republic. Evaluation of an impact of the recent financial crisis on the PDs are done by employing latent factor model and FAVAR model on monthly data of non-performing loans and other macroeconomic variables covering the period 01/2002-06/2013. Finally, an ability to forecast and fit the data of FAVAR model and one factor latent model are compared. The comparison indicates that latent factor model should be more appropriate than FAVAR model.

[pt] Segundo Burns & Mitchell (1946), ciclo econômico são tipos de flutuações encontradas nas atividades econômicas (...) e um ciclo consiste na expansão ocorrendo ao mesmo tempo em várias atividades econômicas, seguida por um movimento similar de recessão, contração e recuperação que se funde à fase de expansão do próximo ciclo econômico. Este estudo visa relatar os ciclos econômicos (CE) brasileiros e cruzar esses dados com índices econômicos de performance (Rentabilidade do Ativo, Margem EBIT, Rentabilidade do Patrimônio, Lucro Por Ação, Índice Preço/ Lucro) das empresas brasileiras listadas na BM&F Bovespa que se mantiveram no índice IBrX nos últimos 10 anos. Foi verificado que os índices de performance tiveram resultados positivos e significantes, ou seja, acompanharam o CE nos momentos de crise e expansão. Exceto P/L, que foi negativo e não significante. / [en] According to Burns & Mitchell (1946), business cycles are kind of fluctuations founded in the economic activities (...) and a cycle consists in an expansion occurring at the same time in various economics activities, followed for a similar movement of recession, contraction and recuperation that merge to expansion phase from the next economic cycle. The aim of this study is to report Brazilian Business Cycles (BC) and cross the data with economic performance index (Return on Asset, Return on Sales, Return on Equity, Earnings per share, Price/ Earnings) of Brazilian companies listed at BM&F Bovespa that have been at IBrX index during the last ten years. Further more it will verify if these companies followed the Brazilian economic movements (BC) or if they have been immune to them. The performance index was positive and significant, that is they follow the movement of BC on crisis and expansions, with the exception of the index Price/Earnings (P/E) that was negative and not significant.

The diploma thesis deals with the connection between the economy cycle and the development on the mortgage credit market since 2000 until 2010. Mainly it focuses on the problematic of the effectiveness of the currency policy and on the analysis of the main determinants, which leads to the mortgage crisis. The aim of the thesis is to assess the determinants of the credit cycle and their connection with the development of the economy cycle. The main indicator that influence the credit cycle will be analyzed. On the basis of the gained information I will answer the question whether there should exist some strategy of the state in the field of accommodation and whether the currency policy should be controlled according to same rules or rather discretionally. As for the methodology, the descriptive method, the comparative analysis, the trend line and the technique of the deviations from the trend will be applied.

The thesis is focused on the progress of municipality revenues of municipality. There are several posible dependencys on: government sector and on tax revenues. Tax revenues are depend on the law of budgetary distribution of taxes. Tax buoyancy is calculated only for several chosen that are important for municipality budget. There are also considered irrecoverably revenues, wchich adjust the distribution of grands. It dependence on grown province of municipality. Thesis researches period of time between 19982012. Revenues volatility might be caused by amendment (retirement laws or budgetary distribution of taxes) and by economic cycle. Almoust all from kinds of revenues showed more dependency on economic cycle than on changes of government laws. The only exeption is property tax which grew even in time of economic crises becouse of amendment of law 2009.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Os paÃses desenvolvidos tÃm grande interesse em saber qual à âo estado atual de sua economiaâ, e tenta prever qual deve ser esse estado em um futuro prÃximo. O interesse do governo no assunto està ligado a questÃes orÃamentÃrias, previdenciÃrias, e atà mesmo intervencionistas. As empresas tambÃm se interessam pela questÃo, pois disso depende a rentabilidade de seus negÃcios e de seus investimentos. Infelizmente, nenhuma sociedade atual possui uma estimativa direta (e um previsor) do âestado da economiaâ, pois essa à uma variÃvel latente, isto Ã, nÃo observÃvel. Recentemente hà uma preocupaÃÃo maior em tentar mensurar o comportamento cÃclico das economias. Em particular, a anÃlise da sincronizaÃÃo do ciclo econÃmico entre diferentes paÃses torna-se um tema de crescente interesse em ambos os cÃrculos acadÃmicos e polÃtico. à fato observar que economias desenvolvidas tÃm se tornado bem mais integrada nos Ãltimos anos. Nesses paÃses, os fluxos comerciais tÃm aumentado substancialmente e os mercados financeiros se tornam mais homogÃneos. Assim, uma crescente atenÃÃo està sendo dedicada em examinar se os esforÃos para coordenarem suas polÃticas econÃmicas levam a uma maior sincronizaÃÃo de dos ciclos econÃmicos desses paÃses. à de se esperar que paÃses com fortes ligaÃÃes em termos de correlaÃÃes de ciclo econÃmico enfrentem custos menores de aderir a uma uniÃo do que paÃses com menor relatividade cÃclica sincronizada. OBJETIVOS: Nesse contexto, os objetivos do presente trabalho foram dar uma dataÃÃo dos perÃodos de recessÃo das economias de oito estados brasileiros (Bahia, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco, ParanÃ, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina e SÃo Paulo) e determinar se hà ocorrÃncia de ciclos econÃmicos sincronizados entre essas economias locais. METODOLOGIA: Desta forma foram utilizadas as sÃries nÃmero-Ãndice da produÃÃo industrial mensal (IPI) â IndÃstria Geral, entre 1981:01 a 2009:03, divulgadas pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e EstatÃstica (IBGE). Os dados foram convertidos em trimestrais pela mÃdia aritmÃtica, totalizando 113 trimestres. Aplicamos duas ferramentas distintas para obtermos uma dataÃÃo dos ciclos econÃmicos para a economia de cada estado brasileiro. Uma nÃo-paramÃtrica, dada pelo Algoritmo de Harding e Pagan (2002) e uma paramÃtrica, atravÃs das mudanÃas de Markov, seguindo Hamilton (1989). A verificaÃÃo da ocorrÃncia de sincronizaÃÃo dos ciclos econÃmicos se deu atravÃs da construÃÃo de uma matriz simÃtrica de dissimilaridade, assim como foi proposta no trabalho de Camacho (2005). RESULTADOS: verificamos que ambas as metodologias de dataÃÃo se aproximaram no sentido de tentarem apresentar uma dataÃÃo para a recessÃo no ciclo econÃmico descrito pela produÃÃo industrial de cada estado. Quanto à verificaÃÃo de sincronizaÃÃo desses ciclos, ambas as matrizes de dissimilaridade sugerem que os estados de Minas Gerais, SÃo Paulo, Santa Catarina e Rio Grande do Sul apresentam sincronizaÃÃo dos ciclos econÃmicos de suas economias. Os estados do Rio de Janeiro e Paranà nÃo estÃo sincronizados. O estado do Rio de Janeiro està mais prÃximo dos demais estados das regiÃes sul e sudeste que dos estados representativos da regiÃo nordeste. O estado do Paranà nÃo està sincronizado com os estados do nordeste, e hà uma divergÃncia de resultados das matrizes paramÃtrica e nÃo-paramÃtrica em relaÃÃo aos demais estados do sul e sudeste. O estado da Bahia apresenta mÃdia sincronizaÃÃo, exceto com os estados do Pernambuco e ParanÃ. Finalmente, Pernambuco parece apresentar um dinamismo diferente dos demais estados, assim com retrata Carvalho (2005). CONCLUSÃO: Nossos resultados evidenciam uma sincronizaÃÃo dos ciclos econÃmicos entre os estados da regiÃo Sul e Sudeste, com exceÃÃo do estado do ParanÃ. Pernambuco nÃo està sincronizado com nenhum dos estados brasileiros estudados. O estado da Bahia està mais prÃximo dos estados do Sul e Sudeste, exceto Paranà e Rio de Janeiro, e como ressaltado anteriormente, nÃo apresenta sincronizaÃÃo com o estado de Pernambuco. / Developed countries are keen to know what "the current state of its economy", and tries to predict what should be the state in the near future. The government's interest in the subject is on the budget, social security, and even interventionist. Companies also are interested in the question, because it depends on the profitability of their business and their investments. Unfortunately, no current society has a direct estimate (and a predictor) of the "state of the economy", as this is a latent variable that is unobservable. Recently there is a greater concern in trying to measure the cyclical behavior of economies. In particular, the analysis of the business cycle synchronization between different countries becomes a subject of increasing interest in both academic and political circles. It is well to note that developed economies have become much more integrated in recent years. In these countries, trade flows have increased substantially and financial markets become more homogeneous. Thus, increasing attention is being devoted to examine whether efforts to coordinate their economic policies lead to greater synchronization of business cycles of these countries. It is expected that countries with strong links in terms of business cycle correlation face lower costs of joining a union than countries with less synchronized cyclic relativity. OBJECTIVES: In this context, the objectives of this study were to take a dating of recessions of economies of eight Brazilian states (Bahia, Minas Gerais, Pernambuco, ParanÃ, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and SÃo Paulo) determine if there is occurrence of synchronized business cycles between these local economies. METHODOLOGY: This way we used the monthly industrial production index number series (IPI) - General Industry from 1981: 01-2009: 03, released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Data were converted to quarterly by the arithmetic average total of 113 quarters. We use two different tools to obtain a dating business cycle for the economy of each Brazilian state. A non-parametric, given by Harding algorithm and Pagan (2002) and a parametric, through the Markov changes, following Hamilton (1989). Verification of the occurrence of synchronization of business cycles was made through the construction of a symmetric matrix of dissimilarity, as was proposed in Camacho's work (2005). RESULTS: we found that both methods of dating approached in order to try to present a dating to the recession in the economic cycle described by industry each state. As for synchronization verification of these cycles, both dissimilarity matrices suggest that the states of Minas Gerais, SÃo Paulo, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul present synchronization of business cycles of their economies. The state of Rio de Janeiro is closer to the other states of the South and Southeast regions of representative states of the Northeast. The state of Paranà is not synchronized with the northeastern states, and there is a divergence of results of parametric and non-parametric arrays compared to other states in the south and southeast. The state of Bahia has an average synchronization, except with the states of Pernambuco and ParanÃ. Finally, Pernambuco seems to have a different dynamic in other states, so with portrays Carvalho (2005). CONCLUSION: Our results show a synchronization of business cycles between the states of the South and Southeast, with the exception of the state of ParanÃ. Pernambuco is not synchronized with any of the Brazilian states studied. The state of Bahia is closer to the South and Southeast, except Paranà and Rio de Janeiro, and as noted above, has no synchronization with the state of Pernambuco.

[pt] Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar os efeitos do ciclo econômico no mercado de trabalho brasileiro entre os grupos demográficos. Nós iremos quantificar os efeitos do ciclo, períodos de crescimento e recessão, nas taxas de desemprego e ocupação entre indivíduos de diferentes idades, gêneros, escolaridade e raça. Utilizamos os microdados da PME, divulgada pelo IBGE, para estimar um modelo que mostra as reações à crise de cada grupo demográfico. Nosso estudo mostra que os grupos que mais sofrem durante a crise são mulheres brancas, jovens, e indivíduos com baixo nível educacional. Estes grupos registraram a maior reação nas taxas de desemprego e ocupação durante o ciclo comparado aos seus pares. Além disso, mostraremos que as diferenças entre os grupos podem ser explicadas, parcialmente, pela sua participação entre os setores da economia. / [en] In this paper we explore the effects of business cycle on labor market outcomes. We examine how the business cycles affect the occupation and unemployment rates across people of different age, gender, race and education. We use individual level data from PME, published by IBGE, to estimate a panel data model that calculates the sensitivity of each group to the business cycle in main metropolitan regions in Brazil. Our study shows that the impacts of cycles are not uniform across demographic groups and who are most sensible to business cycles are white women, youth and low education workers. These groups registered the greatest reaction in their unemployment and employment rates during recessions and booms, respectively, compared to their pairs. In addition, we show that the differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups can be explained in part by differences in their exposure to industry occupation employment.