In the last two decades, many firms in the U.S. forest products industry have either divested their timberlands or converted their corporate structures from C corporations to real estate investment trusts (REITs). This study hypothesizes that this large-scale timberland ownership change affects the financial performance of firms involved in divestitures and on timber supply and, as a result, the economic surplus of producers and consumers in the U.S. timber markets. These issues have not been adequately addressed in existing literature. Event analysis and equilibrium displacement models were employed to address firm financial performance in the capital markets and welfare implications in U.S. timber markets, respectively. The capital markets responded to divestiture events by significantly improving buying firms’ and REITs’ market value. Annual average timberland ownership changes resulted in a net reduction of timber supply which, in turn, caused total social surplus to decrease by $43 million on annual rate of timberland ownership change basis. Compared to over $33 billion U.S. timber markets, this surplus reduction was small. Thus, this study helps justify timberland ownership change decisions and explains the nature and extent of surplus shifts among producers and consumers when timberlands change hands.

This thesis examines the size and distribution of benefits from the use of transgenic tobacco as a production vehicle for pharmaceutical proteins. Ex-ante welfare benefits are estimated for the introduction of two biotech innovations. In both cases economic surplus model with imperfect competition is employed to assess the size and distribution of benefits from these alternative uses of tobacco. An introductory chapter presents an overview of the topic followed by chapters 2 and 3 which contain the two case studies. The first paper (chapter 2) examines the case of Human Serum Albumin production from transgenic tobacco. The second paper (chapter 3) examines the case of Glucocerebrosidase Enzyme from transgenic tobacco. Results demonstrate that new products from bio-pharming applications stand to generate significant social benefits. The introduction of Human Serum Albumin generates average annual gains of $46 million and the introduction of Glucocerebrosidase Enzyme generates average annual gains of $500 to $600 million. / Master of Science

Concerns about the harmful effects of pesticides on the environment, human health, and wildlife have led to research and promotion of integrated pest management (IPM) strategies. Recently, an IPM program was introduced in the Albanian olive sector through the USAID-funded global IPM-CRSP project to develop improved olive IPM technologies. This study develops and applies a protocol for integrated economic impact assessment of olive pest management strategies designed by the IPM-CRSP project in Albania. The main components of the integrated approach for economic impact assessment of olive IPM include (i) net return analysis for measuring farm level impacts; (ii) economic surplus modeling for measuring market-level impacts; and (iii) modeling of IPM adoption under output uncertainty. The economic surplus equilibrium displacement model developed for the Albanian olive market with no international trade accounts for IPM research-induced supply shifts, increased demand due to quality improvement, and research-induced spillovers to non-target zones. The main sources of data for performing partial budgeting and economic surplus analysis were: (i) an expert survey; (ii) partial budgets compiled based on a farmer survey and expenditure records from field-level experiments; and (iii) data collected at the market level. The data used to estimate the dichotomous logit model came from a 1999 survey of 200 growers and a survey of 120 growers carried out in 2000 in the Vlora district of Albania. The net return analysis indicates that compared to conventional practices, the proposed olive IPM packages generally promise higher yields, improved quality of olive products, lower pesticide use, and higher net returns to producers. However, adoption of some of the IPM practices implied higher production costs. Based on the simulation results, the Albanian olive industry has the potential to derive a net IPM research benefit between $39 million (assuming that farmers move directly from minimum spraying to IPM) and $52 million (assuming that farmers move from full pesticide program to IPM) over the next 30 years. Farmers' reliance on pesticide use on olives and other crops does not seem to hinder IPM adoption. Grower perceptions and the process of expectation formation significantly influence adoption decisions. Addressing the process of expectation formation and changing these perceptions by educational programs and better access to information will encourage IPM adoption. / Ph. D.

In international trade involving agricultural products, attempts to safeguard the health of humans, animals, and plants, have led to the imposition of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) standards. Due to the fact that groundnuts are susceptible to aflatoxin contamination, stringent aflatoxin standards have been imposed on groundnut trade by many developed countries. For Senegal and other groundnut exporters in the developing world, these aflatoxin standards pose a major challenge. As a result, in Senegal's confectionery groundnut sector, CIRAD (a French scientific organization) has commenced research aimed at developing an aflatoxin-reducing program. This study evaluates the potential economic impact of CIRAD's aflatoxin-reducing program. The hypotheses underlying the study are as follows: (i) The adoption of CIRAD's aflatoxin-reducing program would enhance the welfare of Senegal's confectionery groundnut farmers (ii) An overall welfare net-gain would be derived by Senegal from the adoption of the program. The analysis employs an economic surplus model that incorporates trade, as well as, domestic production and consumption. Various scenarios of program-effectiveness are examined. The results support the hypotheses of the study; besides enhancing farmers' welfare, the adoption of the aflatoxin-reducing program is expected to yield an overall net-gain ranging between US$0.56 million and US$4.25 million. The overall net-gain is, however, very small. / Master of Science

The Government of Senegal is attempting to liberalize the groundnut market. In the past, this market was highly regulated with government-set producer prices, groundnut oil processing mills owned by parastatals, and requirements that all groundnuts be sold to these quasi-governmental organizations. In recent years, these rules are being relaxed, and farmers are allowed to sell groundnuts on the open market. However, farmers continue to sell most of their groundnuts, as before, to the mills. This study attempts to shed light on the effects of this market liberalization. First, an attempt is made to provide estimates of the farmers' short-run output supply and input demand responses to price changes. A quadratic profit function model is estimated using data collected for the current study and a similar dataset collected by Akobundu [1997]. Second, a quadratic programming model is used to examine the effects of eliminating pan-territorial prices. Results indicate that the elimination of the pan-territorial price system will have an overall benefit to Senegalese society. However, as expected, groundnut producers in areas remote from the groundnut oil processing mills would face lower prices. The effects on producers and consumers in the major producing regions, however, were found to be minimal. Finally, the dissertation provides an extensive description of the economic activities of small-scale farm households in Senegal's Groundnut Basin. Differences between males and females and between household heads and other males in the household are also examined. Although females are not as involved in groundnut production, they do not seem to face discrimination in either the official or the open market. The description of the situation facing small-scale farmers provided in this dissertation is not encouraging. The quantity and timing of the rains in the Groundnut Basin add an unwelcome uncertainty to farming. Increases in population are adding pressure to the environment and are placing heavy demands on wood and grazing lands. Only eight percent of the farmers had groundnut seed multiplication ratios less than one, and sixty-seven percent had ratios less than five. The dissertation also indicates that farmers are not producing enough to feed their families. Fewer than twelve percent of the households produce a caloric surplus. Sixty percent produced less than fifty percent of their caloric needs. The study indicates that farmers are not earning enough from agricultural production to take care of normal expenses throughout the year. Thus, when combined with uncertain rains and a worsening environment, the farmers have little margin of safety. Therefore, any government policies affecting groundnut production in particular or agricultural production in general should take into account the situation already facing the farmers. / Ph. D.

This study assesses the research benefits of IPM technologies and management practices aimed at reducing the virus problem in tomatoes in West Africa. Surveys are conducted with producers, extension agents, scientists, and other experts to obtain information and economic surplus analysis is used to project benefits over time. The determinants of adoption are assessed using a probit model. Results show that adoption of the host-free period reduced the amount of insecticide sprays by 71% and the production cost by $200/ha in Mali. The cost-benefit analysis indicated that the use of virus-tolerant seeds generated profits ranging from $1,188 to $2,116/ha in Mali and from $1,789 to $4,806/ha in Senegal. The likely factors influencing adoption of the technologies in both countries are the frequency of extension visits, farmer's field school training, gender, education, seed cost, tomato area, and experience in tomato losses. The benefits in the closed economy market vary from $3.4 million to $14.8 million for the host-free period, $0.5 million to $3 million for the virus-tolerant seeds, and $4.8 million to $21.6 million for the overall IPM program. In the same order, the benefits under the open economy market range from $3.5 million to $15.4 million, $0.5 million to $3million, and $5 million to $24 million. The distribution pattern indicates that producers gain one-third and consumers two-thirds of the benefits. Our results support policies aiming to increase the adoption rate or the expected change in yield. / Master of Science

This study conducts an ex-ante economic impact evaluation of developing low cost technologies for pyramiding useful genes from wild relatives into elite progenitors of cassava in Nigeria, Ghana and Uganda. More specifically, it estimates the change in economic surplus generated by introducing cassava varieties with tolerance to cassava mosaic disease, green mites, whiteflies, and delayed post-harvest deterioration. It compares the economic benefits of marker-assisted selection (MAS) to conventional breeding for these traits. Results indicate that varieties developed with marker-assisted breeding that incorporate all three traits are worth US$2.89 billion in Nigeria, $854 million in Ghana, and $280 million in Uganda over 20 years. If these varieties were to be developed with tolerance to CMD and Green mites alone they would be worth US$1.49 billion in Nigeria, $675 million in Ghana, and $52 million in Uganda if developed through MAS. If developed solely by conventional breeding they would be worth about US$676 million in Nigeria, $304 million in Ghana, and $18 million in Uganda. The difference is mostly due to the faster timing of release for the varieties developed with MAS and the higher probability of success. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted and benefits for MAS range from US$1.7 billion to US$4.3 billion for all three traits depending on assumptions. In all cases, the research investment is highly profitable from a societal standpoint. / Master of Science

Prioritätensetzung in der Agrarforschung ist ein komplexes Entscheidungsproblem angesichts der Unsicherheit in der Abschätzung der erwarteten Wirkungen von Forschung und Technologien und den vielfältigen sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Zielen, die mit der Generierung von Wissen und neuen Technologien in landwirtschaftlichen Forschungsinstitutionen in Entwicklungsländern verbunden sind. Diese Arbeit versucht durch die Anwendung von formalen und quantitativen Evaluierungs- und Entscheidungsmethoden mit der besonderen Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit und multiplen Zielen einen Beitrag zur Methodenverbesserung in der Prioritätensetzung zu leisten. Zur Darstellung dieser Methoden wurde als Fallstudie das nationale Milchviehforschungsprogramm des "Kenyan Agricultural Research Institute" (KARI) ausgewählt. Gegenstand der Analyse sind 19 geplante Forschungsprojekte, die anhand eines stochastischen Evaluierungsansatzes ("Economic Surplus" und Monte Carlo Simulation) hinsichtlich ihrer ökonomischen Wirkungen auf den kenianischen Milchmarkt untersucht wurden. Die Evaluierungsergebnisse der Forschungsprojekte und anschließende Bewertung anhand verschiedener stochastischer Dominanztests zeigen, daß die Ableitung einer klaren Präferenzstruktur und Rangordnung innerhalb der Projekte nach ökonomischen Kriterien, z.B. Gegenwartswert und Kosten-Nutzenrelation, in vielen Fällen nicht möglich ist, sondern vielmehr von den unterstellten Risikopräferenzen abhängt. Dies bedeutet, daß aus der Sicht eines Planers eine differenzierte und vorsichtige Interpretation und Beratung des Forschungsmanagements vorzunehmen ist. Dies steht im Gegensatz zu einer deterministischen Investitionsanalyse. Mehrere mathematische Programmierungsmodelle wurden zur Analyse von multiplen Zielen, der Untersuchung der Wirkungen von Verteilungsaspekten und unterschiedlicher Risikopräferenzen auf die Zusammensetzung eines optimalen Forschungsportfolios entwickelt und angewandt. Obwohl in den meisten Fällen eine Änderung der Risikoeinstellung auch eine Änderung des optimalen Portfolios bewirken würde, sind die ökonomischen Unterschiede gemessen am Gegenwartswert der alternativen Portfolios unbedeutend. Die Analyse der Zielkonflikte zwischen Effizienz- und Verteilungsziel wurde unter zwei unterschiedlichen Blickwinkeln für das Verteilungsziel untersucht: zum einen als räumliche und regionale Allokation des Forschungsnutzens, und zum anderen zwischen kenianischen Konsumenten und Produzenten von Milch. Aus den Modellergebnissen wird deutlich, daß eine spezielle Förderung von Produzenten- sowie Konsumenteninteressen nur beschränkt möglich ist, d.h. die jeweiligen Planungsoptionen nur geringe Umverteilungswirkungen erzielen. Ganz anders stellt sich die Situation bei einer regionalen Differenzierung dar. Dort würden je nach relativer Bedeutung einzelner Regionen starke Umverteilungswirkungen in den regionalen Einkommen auftreten. Allerdings sind diese Optionen im Vergleich zu einer "neutralen", d.h. regional indifferenten Ausrichtung mit großen Effizienzverlusten verbunden. / Priority setting in agricultural research is a complex decision making problem due to the inherent uncertainty surrounding the impact of research activities and the multiple social and economic research objectives under which research institutions in developing countries have to operate. This study attempts to apply formal and quantitative evaluation and decision making methods for a more rigorous and explicit analysis of the uncertainty and multiple research objectives. These methods are illustrated by applying them to a priority setting exercise for the National Dairy Research Program of the Kenyan Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) conducted in 1996. A set of 19 planned dairy research projects was proposed and specified by KARI scientists and the economic impact assessed based on a stochastic evaluation framework using economic surplus methods and Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that comparing these projects by stochastic dominance criteria with respect to the expected net present value and cost-benefit ratio the final rank order is very much subject to assumed risk preferences of the decision- makers. Thus, decision advice on the type of prioritised projects for implementation and fund raising is much less clear-cut than a deterministic evaluation would suggest. Mathematical programming techniques were applied to analyse the trade-off between multiple research objectives, to examine the distributional consequences of research, and to explore how different risk strategies (from risk aversion to risk proneness) would affect the selection of a optimal research portfolio from the planned dairy research projects. Although risk has a strong bearing on the composition of a research portfolio for various different funding levels the economic implications are not significant in terms of net present value. In a Multiple-objective programming framework the trade-off between efficiency and equity was examined. Equity concern was looked at two different angles: first, by a spatial distribution of the research benefits, and second by the distributions among consumer and producer groups. Results show a limited scope of directing the dairy research plan either for the sake of consumers or producers while the scope of targeting different production zones in Kenya is much larger although the trade-offs in terms of foregone welfare between different zones are very pronounced.

Research and development of Bt rice in Southeast Asia has been overshadowed by the contentious debate over the potential release of transgenic food crops into the region. The study provides empirical evidence on the potential size and distribution of economic benefits of adopting Bt Indica rice in the Philippines and Vietnam through the years 2000 to 2020. Total welfare gains from Bt rice are projected at 618.8 million USD (discounted at 5 percent) and aggregate benefits by region are projected at 269.6 million USD for the Philippines, 329.1 million USD for Vietnam, and 20.1 million USD for the rest of the world. Simulation results indicate that producers in both countries will capture 66.5 percent of the total welfare effect from Bt rice adoption, 25.9 percent will accrue to consumers, 3 percent to the rest of the world, and the loss in Philippine government revenue accounts for 4.6 percent of the total welfare effect. The study also reports how other factors will determine the size and distribution of economic benefits of Bt rice. <i>Vita removed, Sept. 13, 2012, Gmc</i> / Master of Science

Peanut production has been decreasing in Senegal over the past decades for historical, political, economic and environmental reasons. One of the solutions proposed by recent Senegalese administrations is to increase production through agricultural research and the development of peanut varieties that are adapted to the environmental constraints in Senegal. The last variety developed is La Fleur 11, which is very drought tolerant. The purpose of the study is to assess the economic impact of research on La Fleur 11 on the Senegalese economy through an ex-ante evaluation of the net social benefits from the adoption of this new variety. In order to fulfill this objective, an economic surplus analysis is conducted within the framework of a partial equilibrium model. Results indicate that the net social benefits from the adoption of La Fleur 11 are positive. Assuming that all peanut supply is sold to SONACOS at a producer base price and that research evaluation is conducted at the farm-level, Consumers (SONACOS) are the main beneficiaries from research. Their benefits are on average 6 times producers' (farmers). The research-induced increase in the government cost of the subsidy represents 84 percent on average of consumers' and producers' benefits; the research-induced increase in net social welfare represents 16 percent on average of consumers' and producers' benefits. The internal rate of return averages around 43 percent. When peanut markets are disaggregated, research benefits consumers (SONACOS) 3 times more than producers (farmers) at the farm level. Most of producers' benefits come from farm household consumption (47 percent of total farm-level benefits) and most of consumers' benefits come from the official seed market. At the SONACOS-level where peanut oil and cakes are exported, research benefits producers (SONACOS) only; consumers (rest of the world) do not benefit from research at this level. The IRR is more likely to be about 42 percent. This study suggests that future investments in agricultural research in Senegal can result in a positive economic impact provided that other actions are undertaken regarding extension, credit, and input distribution in order to enhance adoption and take advantage of the yield potential of the new peanut varieties. Also, this study provides a procedure of research evaluation for future use in Senegal and West Africa. / Master of Science