University of Stellenbosch Business School / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study examined the relationship between economic structure and energy intensity in selected developed and developing countries of the world. A methodological and systematic approach was adopted to select the thirty-one countries explored in the study. Therefore, to answer the research questions posed in the study, the Granger Causality Technique and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) method were used. This study discovered that the variables examined in the study showed variations. The variations emerged because of differences in methodologies and analytical frameworks adopted. Errorcorrection models were estimated and used to test for the direction of Granger causality. In the model, a high R2 was observed among the six variables (i.e. energy efficiency, per capita income, manufacturing, average energy prices, energy imports, technological developments), which invariably account for 60.8 percent of the variance in the energy intensity. Based on this, the unidirectional Granger causality runs from efficiency, per capita income and manufacturing to energy intensity. Hence, the price effects are relatively less significant in the causal chain. The result is at variance with the hypothesis that the structure of the economy does not determine its energy intensity. Nevertheless, a unidirectional Granger causality running from economic structure to energy intensity indicates that improvement in the economic structure would encourage a decline in energy intensity.

We draw on a unique dataset for energy use by manufacturing firms in 18 Sub-Saharan African countries to estimate the relationship between energy intensity of production and firms' characteristics. Our results show that lower levels of energy intensity are associated with export activity, foreign ownership, size and capital-labor ratio, while higher levels of energy intensity are associated with a higher share of fuels in total energy consumption. We do not find a statistically significant relationship between energy intensity and the age of capital equipment or ownership of a generator, while our results on quality management certification are inconclusive.

This thesis investigates the patterns of each type of energy consumption for fourteen countries, to study the link between energy consumption, economics and population. It was found that for all the countries studied, there is a decrease in energy consumption relative to economic growth. This shows that the world has become less energy based, and is more efficient in using energy to produce economic wealth. The carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for each fossil fuel type used for electricity generation in New Zealand: coal, gas and oil was also calculated. Gas is the main contributor of CO₂ by electricity generation for New Zealand. New Zealand's CO₂ emissions from electricity generation have nearly tripled in the last 12 years. Despite the environmental concerns of global warming and the Kyoto protocol, there has been a large increase in total CO₂ emitted. This increase has seen a replacement of gas by coal in order to continue to meet the electricity demand of the nation. New Zealand has a small energy market relative to the global market. World energy market patterns show a recent history of oil declining, coal declining, gas increasing and the significant presence of nuclear. Renewable energies are insignificant on the world scene. These are marked contrasts to the New Zealand scene. Of the renewable energy supply fuels, both hydro and geothermal have been in decline, from before deregulation. This trend will continue in the future if left to market forces. Although renewable energy may be a solution to New Zealand's energy supply, the increase in market share of other renewable energies to date is limited. They are unlikely to be sufficient to cover New Zealand's energy demand in the near future. With New Zealand being dependent on the world supply of oil, the expected depletion of the Maui gas field, the low market share for renewable energy and rising concerns about pollution, the green house effects and global warming, nuclear power is considered an option in New Zealand.

<p> With fluctuations in energy price and the uncertainty of energy supply, particularly in the past decade, it has become increasingly important to forecast energy requirements. It is useful to know the response of energy demand to changes in both energy price and supply. In addition, the amount of substitution possibilities would allow forecasting demand for individual energy types. </p> <p> This study focuses on changes in energy intensities in the manufacturing and service sectors from 1962 to 1982. Trends for the sectors as a whole, and individual industries within each sector are analyzed on the basis of significant changes in; total consumption patterns and specific energy types. These trends are helpful in acting as a base for analyzing future energy needs in Canada. </p> / Thesis / Bachelor of Arts (BA)

O sistema energético pode ser visto não apenas como uma restrição, mas também como uma oportunidade para o desenvolvimento produtivo de uma sociedade. Pela segunda ótica, o objetivo principal a ser perseguido é a da garantia do suprimento energético e da adequação das formas e fontes de energia aos usos finais demandados. Ao mesmo tempo, dentro do contexto global de preocupação com as mudanças climáticas, faz-se necessário conceber uma nova trajetória de desenvolvimento para o estado de São Paulo, mais moderna, com maior participação de fontes renováveis de energia, focada na diminuição da ntensidade energética, e mais voltada ao desenvolvimento tecnológico. Este trabalho procurou, então, mostrar que o estado de São Paulo já promoveu uma verdadeira transformação de sua matriz energética em termos da participação de energias renováveis, no entanto, que os paulistas ainda devem encarar outros desafios maiores como saber lidar com a tendência não declinante de sua intensidade energética nos últimos anos. Enfim, ao decompor o indicador de intensidade energética para o estado de São Paulo, buscou-se explicitar as possíveis causas de forma a observar se há um tradeoff aparente entre o uso de fontes energéticas renováveis e a estagnação dos valores da intensidade energética estadual. / The energy system can be understood not only as a constraint, but also as an opportunity for a society productive development. Taking the second approach, the main objective to be pursued is that of securing energy supply and adequacy of forms and sources of energy to the demanded end uses. At the same time, within the context of global concern about climate change, it is necessary to devise a new development path for the state of São Paulo, more modern, with a higher share of renewable energy sources, focused on reduction of energy intensity and more focused on technological development. This study sought to show, therefore, that the state of São Paulo has promoted a true transformation of its energy matrix in terms of the share of renewable energies. However, the state must still face other major challenges such as how to deal with its non-downward energy intensity trend in recent years. Finally, by decomposing the energy intensity indicator for the state of São Paulo, we sought to clarify the possible causes in order to observe whether there is an apparent tradeoff between the use of renewable energy sources and the stagnation of the state energy intensity values.

O sistema energético pode ser visto não apenas como uma restrição, mas também como uma oportunidade para o desenvolvimento produtivo de uma sociedade. Pela segunda ótica, o objetivo principal a ser perseguido é a da garantia do suprimento energético e da adequação das formas e fontes de energia aos usos finais demandados. Ao mesmo tempo, dentro do contexto global de preocupação com as mudanças climáticas, faz-se necessário conceber uma nova trajetória de desenvolvimento para o estado de São Paulo, mais moderna, com maior participação de fontes renováveis de energia, focada na diminuição da ntensidade energética, e mais voltada ao desenvolvimento tecnológico. Este trabalho procurou, então, mostrar que o estado de São Paulo já promoveu uma verdadeira transformação de sua matriz energética em termos da participação de energias renováveis, no entanto, que os paulistas ainda devem encarar outros desafios maiores como saber lidar com a tendência não declinante de sua intensidade energética nos últimos anos. Enfim, ao decompor o indicador de intensidade energética para o estado de São Paulo, buscou-se explicitar as possíveis causas de forma a observar se há um tradeoff aparente entre o uso de fontes energéticas renováveis e a estagnação dos valores da intensidade energética estadual. / The energy system can be understood not only as a constraint, but also as an opportunity for a society productive development. Taking the second approach, the main objective to be pursued is that of securing energy supply and adequacy of forms and sources of energy to the demanded end uses. At the same time, within the context of global concern about climate change, it is necessary to devise a new development path for the state of São Paulo, more modern, with a higher share of renewable energy sources, focused on reduction of energy intensity and more focused on technological development. This study sought to show, therefore, that the state of São Paulo has promoted a true transformation of its energy matrix in terms of the share of renewable energies. However, the state must still face other major challenges such as how to deal with its non-downward energy intensity trend in recent years. Finally, by decomposing the energy intensity indicator for the state of São Paulo, we sought to clarify the possible causes in order to observe whether there is an apparent tradeoff between the use of renewable energy sources and the stagnation of the state energy intensity values.

Aquaculture had already been distinguished as an important component of global food security and economics. However, aquaculture has expanded at the cost of natural resources and the environment. The vulnerability of the aquaculture industry due to the consequences of global environmental changes and energy price fluctuations has been addressed in various studies. The identification, planning, and implementation of sustainable energy systems are important to ensure the long term economic and environmental sustainability of aquaculture. This research investigated sustainable energy systems for aquaculture using a life cycle approach, allowing for the identification of the most sustainable energy options under different geographical and economic contexts. This also provides useful insights for the sustainable development of aquaculture with energy systems. The main objectives were to develop a statistical model for energy intensity of aquaculture (Chapter 2) and a user-friendly tool that can assist in the decision making of choosing the sustainable energy systems in aquaculture (Chapter 3), and to investigate the applicability of solar hot water systems for aquaculture (Chapter 4) and the potential improvement of the sustainability performance of aquaculture with energy systems (Chapter 5). In the first task, the main influencing factors on the energy use of aquaculture were investigated via a statistical analysis method. Results showed that natural trophic level of species, culture technology, culture system intensity, and local climatic conditions are important factors. With the key variables, an energy intensity prediction model was developed and applied to explore an energy efficient growth strategy for global aquaculture. Energy use in future global aquaculture would be significantly reduced with a selective extensification of global aquaculture. Also, climate change with consideration of temperature and precipitation would help reduce the energy use of global aquaculture as warm climate zones are more dominant in major aquaculture producing countries. In the second task, an MS-Excel based decision support tool was developed to assist the selection of environmentally and economically sustainable energy systems (single source or hybrid sources) in aquaculture. Through a case study, the most sustainable energy options for U.S. aquaponics systems were investigated, considering different geographical and economic contexts in five U.S. states (FL, HI, WA, LA, and ME). Results showed that solar systems (solar photo-voltaic and solar hot water heater) could be the most sustainable energy options for U.S. aquaponics due to their low environmental impacts and economic benefits. In the third task, results showed that heating strategies, setting (indoor or outdoor), and local climatic conditions played a pivotal role in determining the environmental and economic impacts of solar hot water systems in aquaculture. The lowest environmental impact was found with a 20% heating strategy for outdoor aquaculture systems under hot climate conditions, while the most economical case was found with an 80% heating strategy for indoor aquaculture systems under moderate climate conditions. Further improvements of environmental and economic performances could be achieved with consideration of water source (groundwater and surface) and design (horizontally fixed or optimally tilted solar thermal collector). In the fourth task, environmental and economic impacts of alternative energy systems were obtained using the tool which was developed in the second task. Results showed that local geographical and weather characteristics, local energy prices, and incentive availability were important parameters to determine the sustainability performance of alternative energy systems in aquaculture. The use of renewable energy was more sustainable than conventional energy systems in the regions where there are favorable geographical conditions, high electricity and fuel prices, and incentives. The use of solar photovoltaic with a thin-film technology was the most sustainable electricity generation options in most states of the U.S., while the use of natural gas boilers was the most sustainable heating options in most states of the U.S. The sustainability performance of the solar photovoltaic systems can be further improved through either a technological advancement or an incentive, while financial support is more effective for solar hot water systems. The application of anaerobic digestion as a backup system in general will reduce the sustainability of hybrid heating system; however, the hybrid biogas-diesel heating system has better sustainability performance compared with a diesel heating system if it is used for medium to large scale fish farms. This research provides an understanding of energy use characteristics of current aquaculture systems, and insights for the planning of sustainable energy supply systems in aquaculture, considering different growth strategies, effects of climate change, and alternative energy systems with various operational strategies and design factors. Furthermore, the decision-making tool was made to be accessible to fish farmers, state-wide planners, and regulators.

Die wesentlichen sozio-ökonomischen Prozesse, die die vermehrten anthropogenen CO₂-Emissionen verursachen, können durch die Determinanten Bevölkerung, Wohlstand (Bruttoinlandsprodukt pro Kopf) und Technologie (Energie- und Kohlenstoffintensität) vereinfacht beschrieben werden. Der Einfluss dieser Determinanten auf die Emissionsänderungen ist nicht für alle Länder der Erde gleich.<br /> Zeitreihen der CO₂-Emissionen aus der Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger, der Bevölkerung, des Bruttoinlandsproduktes und des Primärenergieverbrauches von 121 Ländern bilden die Grundlage für das entwickelte statistische Verfahren zur schrittweisen Informationsverdichtung, mit dem der gesamte Datenraum zu 6 energiewirtschaftlichen Ländertypen schrittweise zusammengefasst wird.<br /> Zur Beschreibung dieser Ländertypen wird mit Hilfe der Dekompositionsanalyse der Einfluss der Bevölkerungs-, der Wohlstands- und der Technologiekomponenten an den Emissionsänderungen quantifiziert. Die Ländertypen können vereinfacht als Repräsentanten unterschiedlicher Entwicklungsstufen und -richtungen angesehen werden. Sie bilden unter anderem eine Grundlage für die Weiterentwicklung und Kalibrierung regionalisierter makro-ökonomischer Modelle zu den sozio-ökonomischen Hintergründen der vermehrten anthropogenen CO₂-Emissionen. / The principal socio-economic processes that cause the increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide can be modeled by the variables population, affluence (gross domestic product per capita) and technology (energy intensity and carbon intensity). The impact of these variables on the changes of the CO₂ emissions is not the same for all countries of the earth.<br /> Time series of carbon dioxide emissions from burning of fossil energies, population, gross domestic product and of primary energy supply of 121 countries were analyzed. A statistical method for the stepwise aggregation of these data into six classes of countries according to their energy use profile.<br>The impact of population, affluence and technology components on the changes of the emissions of carbon dioxide is quantified by decomposition analysis. The classes of countries according to their energy use profile can be regarded as representative of different states and of different paths of development. These classes are also a basis for the elaboration and calibration of regionalized macro economic models to analyze the socio economic determinants of the increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.

Two weeks before the Copenhagen summit on climate change, China officially made a pledge to cut its carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent below 2005 level by 2020. The thesis has tried to look into the quality and quantity concern of this pledge made by the biggest CO2 emitter in the world. From the existing projections on China’s business as usual (BAU) scenarios to 2020, there are no unanimous conclusions showing whether there is additionality in China’s pledge to reduce 40-45% of its carbon intensity between 2005 and 2020. Further analysis on selected results, we have found scenarios of two frequently cited authorities, namely IEA and EIA are, to some extent, misinterpreted regarding their references/current policies scenarios. On the other hand, several more typical BAU scenarios, like Garnaut’s and ReMIND-R, predicted much lower than 40% reduction rate in the period of 2005-2020. China’s pledge seems achievable with certain extra effort, comparing with historical pathways of several OECD countries, including U.S., Japan, Germany, and Korea. The average period in these four countries to go through China’s abatement path is around 21 years. From a global prospect, China’s pledge is impressive but not enough to address the climate change issue. The biggest uncertainty inherited in the pledge is the uncertain peak year of absolute emissions. The critical movement beyond 2020 pledge is to peak its absolute CO2 emissions as early as possible. Such a challenging target shall be set as no later than 2030 according to our overviews on the related literature.

Magistro baigiamajame darbe nagrinėjama energetinių išteklių naudojimo (gamyboje, tiekime, vartojime) apimtis bei būdus Lietuvos ūkyje, siekiama įvertinti energetinių išteklių naudojimo ekonominį efektyvumą Lietuvos ūkio sektoriuose (pramonėje, statyboje, žemės ūkyje, transporte, paslaugų sektoriuje, namų ūkiuose) ir nustatyti energetinių išteklių naudojimo ekonominį efektyvumą įtakojančius veiksnius. / The aim of the master‘s thesis is to examine the methods and the volume of energy resource usage (in production, supply and consume) in Lithuanian economy, to evaluate the economic efficiency of energy resource usage in Lithuanian economic sectors(industry, construction, agriculture, transport, services and households) and to determine factors influencing the economic efficiency of energy resource usage.