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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

情報決策象限理論之建構與個案分析-孫子兵法情報概念的反思 / The Construction and Case Study of the Quadrangular Theory for Intelligence-Decision:Reflection on the Intelligence Thought of Sun Tzu.

紀光陽, Chi,Kuang Yang Unknown Date (has links)
「情報」與「決策」存在著高度的密切關係,「情報」正確而及時則相對提高「決策」的正確性;反之,則降低「決策」的正確性。但同一個「情報」對不同的個人而言,會產出不同的「決策」結果,此即是「決策」不僅與「情報」有關,亦與個人的「認知」條件有著密切的關係。   因此,本文透過孫子兵法「情報」與「決策」的關係,架構出孫子的決策邏輯與位階性,再以此建構出情報決策「象限理論」,企圖系統性地解釋「情報」條件與決策者「認知」條件的複雜關係,並藉由第二次美伊戰爭的決策過程作為例證,說明導致決策錯誤的重要因素。並由「象限理論」中第一象限區域,及美伊戰爭決策缺失中,檢討並演繹出「國家安全決策新思維」,文中指出一個專業且中立的情報機關,除了要提升情報信息的客觀性外,更要避免、改變決策者先入為主的錯誤認知。經由本文所提出的「象限理論」、「決策方程式」、「個案分析」、「國家安全決策新思維」,將有助於瞭解並加速決策產出的質量與效能,進而有利於優質決策的產出。 / There is highly relationship between intelligence and decision-making. The correct and on time intelligence will make a good policy; but the wrong or slow intelligence will make a bad policy, on the contrary. The same intelligence for different individuals will result in different decision-making, which means decision-making has high relationship with intelligence and personal cognition. For this reason, this article constructs The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making based on The Art of Sun-tzu theory, to explain the complicated relation between intelligence and personal cognition, as well as to state the important factor which leads to the wrong decision-making in the Second Gulf War. This article also point out an important concept: the professional and intelligence agencies will not only improve the objectively intelligence, but also will avoid policymaker's prejudiced cognition. The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making will help to understand the whole situation and accelerate the high quality and high efficiency decision-making process.

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