Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The practice of combining single-factor multiples (SFMs) into composite multiples models is underpinned by the theory that various SFMs carry incremental information, which, if encapsulated in a superior value estimate, largely eliminates biases and errors in individual estimates. Consequently, the chief objective of this study was to establish whether combining single value estimates into an aggregate estimate will provide a superior value estimate vis-á-vis single value estimates. It is envisaged that this dissertation will provide a South African perspective, as an emerging market, to composite multiples modelling and the multiples-based equity valuation theory on which it is based. To this end, the study included 16 SFMs, based on value drivers representing all of the major value driver categories, namely earnings, assets, dividends, revenue and cash flows. The validation of the research hypothesis hinged on the results obtained from the initial cross-sectional empirical investigation into the factors that complicate the traditional multiples valuation approach. The main findings from the initial analysis, which subsequently directed the construction of the composite multiples models, were the following: Firstly, the evidence suggested that, when constructing multiples, multiples whose peer groups are based on a combination of valuation fundamentals perform more accurate valuations than multiples whose peer groups are based on industry classifications. Secondly, the research results confirmed that equity-based multiples produce more accurate valuations than entity-based multiples. Thirdly, the research findings suggested that multiples models that are constructed on earnings-based value drivers, especially HE, offer higher degrees of valuation accuracy compared to multiples models that are constructed on dividend-, asset-, revenue- or cash flowbased value drivers. The results from the initial cross-sectional analysis were also subjected to an industry analysis, which both confirmed and contradicted the initial cross-sectional-based evidence. The industry-based research findings suggested that both the choice of optimal Peer Group Variable (PGV) and the choice of optimal value driver are industry-specific. As with the initial cross-sectional analysis, earnings-based value drivers dominated the top positions in all 28 sectors that were investigated, while HE was again confirmed as the most accurate individual driver. However, the superior valuation performance of multiples whose peer groups are based on a combination of valuation fundamentals, as deduced from the crosssectional analysis conducted earlier, did not hold when subjected to an industry analysis, suggesting that peer group selection methods are industry-specific. From this evidence, it was possible to construct optimal industry-specific SFMs models, which could then be compared to industry-specific composite models. The evidence suggested that composite-based modelling offered, on annual average, between 20.21% and 44.59% more accurate valuations than optimal SFMs modelling over the period 2001 to 2010. The research results suggest that equity-based composite modelling may offer substantial gains in precision over SFMs modelling. These gains are, however, industry-specific and a carte blanche application thereof is ill advised. Therefore, since investment practitioners’ reports typically include various multiples, it seems prudent to consider the inclusion of composite models as a more accurate alternative. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die praktyk om Enkelfaktor Veelvoude (EFVe) te kombineer in saamgestelde veelvoudmodelle word ondersteun deur die teorie dat verskillende EFVe oor inkrementele inligting beskik, wat, indien dit in ’n superieure waardeskatting opgeneem word, grootliks vooroordele en foute in individuele skattings elimineer. Gevolglik was die hoofdoel van hierdie studie om vas te stel of die kombinering van verskeie enkelfaktor waardeskattings in ’n totale waardeskatting ’n superieure waardeskatting sal verskaf vis-á-vis enkelfaktor waardeskattings. Dit word voorsien dat hierdie proefskrif ’n Suid-Afrikaanse perspektief, as ’n ontluikende mark, sal bied aangaande saamgestelde veelvoudmodellering en die veelvoud-gebaseerde ekwiteitswaardasie-teorie waarop dit gebaseer is. Hiermee ten doel, sluit hierdie studie 16 EFVe in, gebaseer op waardedrywers wat al die vernaamste waardedrywerkategorieë, naamlik verdienste, bates, dividende, omset en kontantvloeie, verteenwoordig. Die bevestiging van die navorsingshipotese is afhanklik van die resultate soos bekom vanuit die aanvanklike dwarsdeursnee-empiriese ondersoek na die faktore wat die tradisionele veelvoudwaardasieproses kompliseer. Die hoofbevindinge van die aanvanklike ontleding, wat daarna rigtinggewend was vir die komposisie van die saamgestelde veelvoudmodelle, was die volgende: Eerstens, dui die bewyse daarop dat, wanneer veelvoude saamgestel word, veelvoude waarvan die portuurgroepe op ’n kombinasie van fundamentele waardasieveranderlikes gebaseer is, meer akkurate waardasies lewer as veelvoude waarvan die portuurgroepe op industrie-klassifikasies gebaseer is. Tweedens, het die navorsingsresultate bevestig dat ekwiteitsgebaseerde veelvoude meer akkurate waardasies lewer as entiteitsgebaseerde veelvoude. Derdens, toon die navorsingsbevindinge dat veelvoudmodelle wat saamgestel word uit verdienstegebaseerde waardedrywers, veral wesensverdienste (WV), hoër grade van waardasie-akkuraatheid bied in vergelyking met veelvoudmodelle wat saamgestel word uit dividend-, bate-, omset- of kontantvloei-gebaseerde waardedrywers. Die resultate van die aanvanklike dwarsdeursnee-ontleding is ook onderwerp aan ’n industrie-ontleding, wat die aanvanklike bevindinge van die dwarsdeursnee-ontleding beide bevestig en weerspreek het. Die bevindinge vanaf die industrie-ontleding dui daarop dat beide die keuse van optimale Portuurgroepveranderlike (PGV) en die optimale keuse van waardedrywer, industrie-spesifiek is. Soos met die aanvanklike dwarsdeursnee-ontleding, het verdienste-gebaseerde waardedrywers die top posisies by al 28 sektore wat ondersoek is, gedomineer, terwyl WV weer as die akkuraatste individuele waardedrywer bevestig is. Die superieure waardasie-resultate van veelvoude waarvan die portuurgroepe gebaseer was op ’n kombinasie van fundamentele waardasie-veranderlikes, soos afgelei uit die aanvanklike dwarsdeursnee-ontleding, het egter nie dieselfde resultate gelewer op ’n per sektor basis nie, wat aandui dat portuurgroep seleksiemetodes industrie-spesifiek is. Vanuit hierdie bevindinge was dit moontlik om optimale EFV-modelle saam te stel, wat dan vergelyk kon word met industrie-spesifieke saamgestelde veelvoudmodelle. Die bevindinge het voorgestel dat saamgestelde modellering gemiddeld jaarliks, tussen 20.21% en 44.59% meer akkurate waardasies gelewer het as optimale EFVmodellering oor die tydperk 2001 tot 2010. Die navorsingsresultate dui aan dat ekwiteitsgebaseerde saamgestelde modellering aansienlike toenames in waardasie-akkuraatheid mag bewerkstellig bo dié van EFVmodellering. Hierdie toenames is egter industrie-spesifiek en ’n carte blanche toepassing daarvan is nie aan te beveel nie. Gevolglik, aangesien beleggingspraktisyns se verslae tipies verskeie veelvoude insluit, blyk dit redelik om die insluiting van saamgestelde modelle as ’n meer akkurate alternatief te oorweeg.

The aim of the thesis is valuation of the company Moira CZ, a.s. on the date 1.1.2009. The thesis consist of strategic analysis, financial analysis, analysis and prognosis of generators of value and financial plan. The value of the company is determined by the yield method DCF Equity and by the method of market multipliers.

The master’s thesis is focused on fundamental analysis of stocks. The methods of fundamental analysis including their advantages or difficulties and possibilities of implementation in practice were analysed and described in theoretical part of thesis. The experimental part involved the fundamental analysis of the company ČEZ issued in a calculation of intrinsic value stock. In conclusion, the results of the analysis were compared to a current price of a stock on the Czech stock exchange. In addition, the following methods are used in the investment recommendations concerning stocks of ČEZ.

Ce travail propose une analyse de l’évaluation des capitaux propres de l’entreprise obtenue des modèles d’évaluation de la rente économique. La qualité des estimations dépend de la pertinence des hypothèses et du calibrage empirique de ces modèles. Dans un premier temps, les fondements théoriques des différentes hypothèses sur la croissance et/ou la persistance de la rente économique et de son influence sur l’évaluation des fonds propres sont analysés. S’appuyant sur le modèle des accroissements anormaux du résultat, nous montrons que la rente économique du nouvel investissement ou de l’accroissement anormal du résultat devrait converger vers zéro du fait des forces concurrentielles. Cette proposition, différente de ce qui est couramment admis suite au travail d’Ohlson et Juettner-Nauroth, apparaît influencer sensiblement l’estimation des fonds propres de l’entreprise. Une analyse asymptotique des multiples présentés dans le deuxième chapitre de cette thèse souligne ces aspects en dehors des biais et des difficultés que pourraient amener les mesures empiriques du phénomène. Le travail propose notamment une explication de la surévaluation systématique des fonds propres obtenue par le modèle des accroissements anormaux du résultat. Par la suite, une méthode d’estimation de la persistance de l’accroissement anormal du résultat par firme est proposé afin d’améliorer le calibrage de ce modèle. Dans le dernier chapitre, un modèle analytique synthétisant les deux grands types d’approche concernant la modélisation de la rente, le modèle des résultats résiduels et le modèle des accroissements anormaux du résultat, est proposé. Une équation de valorisation linéaire en est dérivée et est mobilisée afin de caractériser le contenu informationnel des prévisions de la variation du bénéfice à court terme avancées par les analystes financiers. / This research proposes an analysis of equity valuation of firm, obtained from the models valuing economic rents. The quality of the estimations depends on the pertinence of the hypothesis and the empirical calibration of these models. In the first place, the theoretical foundations of different hypotheses on the growth rate and/or the persistence level of economic rent and the influence of these hypotheses on equity valuation are analyzed. Through the abnormal earnings growth model, we show that the economic rent of the new investment or the abnormal earnings growth should converge towards zero due to the market competition. This proposition, different from Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth’s assumption often adopted in prior studies, is found having sensitive influence on equity valuation. The asymptotic analysis of valuation ratios in the second chapter of this thesis underlines these aspects while being immune from the bias and the difficulties that the empirical studies on this issue could induce. This research notably proposes an explanation for the problem of systematic overvaluation of equity by the abnormal earnings growth model. In the second place, to improve the calibration of the abnormal earnings growth model, a method is proposed to estimate the firm-specific persistence level of the abnormal earnings growth. In the last chapter, an analytical model is proposed to synthesize the two main approaches concerning rent modeling: the residual income valuation model and the abnormal earnings growth model. A linear valuation equation is derived from the analytical model and mobilized to characterize the value relevance of the short-term earnings variation forecasted by financial analysts.

The master’s thesis is focused on prediction on capital market by fundamental analysis. It's principle and methods that can be used for intrinsic stock value evaluation are described in the theoretical part. The experimental part goes in for the fundamental analysis of the company ČEZ. Evaluated intrinsic value of the stock is compared with the current price of a stock on the Czech stock exchange and the investment strategy is discussed.

This project aims to analyze Nordic companies active in the sector of Information and Communications Technology (ICT), and does this in two parts. Part I entails analyzing public companies to construct a valuation model aimed at predicting the enterprise value of private companies. Part II deals with analyzing private companies to determine if there are opportunities providing excess returns as compared to investments in public companies. In part I, a multiple regression approach is utilized to identify suitable valuation models. In doing so, it is revealed that 1-factor models provide best statistical results in terms of significance and prediction error. In descending order, in terms of prediction accuracy, these are (1) total assets, (2) turnover, (3) EBITDA, and (4) cash flow. Part II uses model (1) and finds that Nordic ICT private equity does provide opportunities for positive alphas, and that it is possible to construct portfolio strategies that increase this alpha. However, with regards to previous research, it seems as though the returns offered by the private equity market analyzed does not adequately compensate investors for the additional risks related to investing in private equity. / Det här projektet analyserar nordiska bolag aktiva inom Informations- och Kommunikationsteknologi (ICT) i två delar. Del I behandlar analys av publika bolag för att konstruera en värderingsmodell avsedd att förutsäga privata bolags enterprise value. Del II analyserar privata bolag för att undersöka huruvida det finns möjligheter att uppnå överavkastning jämfört med investeringar i publika bolag. I del I utnyttjas multipel regressionsanalys för att identifiera tillämpliga värderingsmodeller. I den processen påvisas att modeller med enbart en faktor ger bäst statistiska resultat i fråga om signifikans och förutsägelsefel. I fallande ordning, med avseende på precision i förutsägelser, är dessa modeller (1) totala tillgångar, (2) omsättning, (3) EBITDA, och (4) kassaflöde. Del II använder modell (1) och finner att den nordiska marknaden för privata ICT-bolag erbjuder möjligheter för överavkastning jämfört med motsvarande publika marknad, samt att det är möjligt att konstruera portföljstrategier som ökar avkastningen ytterligare. Dock, med hänsyn till tidigare forskning, verkar det som att de möjligheter för avkastning som går att finna på marknaden av privata bolag som undersökts inte kompenserar investerare tillräckligt för de ytterligare risker som är relaterade till investeringar i privata bolag.