Resumo: Considerando a importância da compreensão da dinâmica espaço temporal dos componentes do balanço de energia (BE) em escala regional para o gerenciamento de recursos hídrico e o manejo agrícola, o objetivo principal desta tese foi construir e analisar uma série temporal dos componentes do BE adequada às condições de clima subtropical úmido do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Para tanto, inicialmente foi avaliada a adequação de modelos de estimativa de BE para o Estado. Nesta etapa foram utilizados produtos MODIS e dados de referência medidos em uma torre micrometeorológica instalada em Cruz Alta – RS, usando valores instantâneos para um período de estudo de 2009 a 2011. Na sequência foi avaliada a adequação dos modelos em representar a variabilidade espacial dos componentes do BE. Nesta etapa foram usados produtos MODIS, dados de reanálise ERA Interim, dados de referência da torre micrometeorológica e dados de estações meteorológicas do INMET, para o mesmo período de estudo. Na última etapa do trabalho foi construída a série temporal dos componentes do BE usando o modelo METRIC, a qual abrangeu um período de 14 anos, de 2002 a 2016. Os resultados demonstraram que os três modelos analisados apresentam coerência com as medidas de referência, sendo as maiores limitações apresentadas pelo modelo SEBAL, as quais se atribui principalmente às condições ecoclimáticas do Estado e a baixa resolução espacial das imagens. Na análise da variabilidade espacial, o modelo METRIC apresentou maior consistência nos resultados e proporcionou maior número de dias com resultados válidos, sendo assim apontado como o mais apto para realização do restante do estudo. A série temporal construída possibilitou a compreensão dos padrões de distribuição espaço temporal dos componentes do BE no estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Há uma marcada sazonalidade nos componentes do BE, com maiores valores no verão e menores no inverno. G (fluxo de calor no solo) é o componente de menor magnitude e sua distribuição espacial e temporal é determinada pela distribuição de Rn (saldo de radiação). Já os componentes LE (fluxo de calor latente) e H (fluxo de calor sensível), são os que mostram magnitude maior e apresentam padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal coerentes com as condições climáticas e com os tipos de uso e cobertura na área de estudo. Observase um padrão inverso, com um gradiente de LE no sentido noroeste para sudeste e para o componente H, no sentido sudeste para noroeste. Sendo estas informações de grande importância para gerenciamento de recursos hídricos em escala regional, para estudos de zoneamento agrícola. / Abstract: Given the importance of understanding the temporal and spatial dynamics of of the energy balance (EB) components in a regional scale for the management of water resources and agricultural, the main objective of this thesis was to construct and analyze a time series of the components of BE appropriate to the subtropical humid climate conditions of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. In order to reach the objective initially, the adequacy of the models for the humid climate conditions was evaluated, in this step we used MODIS data and reference data measured in a micrometeorological tower installed in Cruz Alta - RS. The analyzes performed with instantaneous values and the study period was from 2009 to 2011. The next step evaluate the spatial variability of the BE components, the data used were the MODIS products, ERA Interim reanalysis data, reference data of the micrometeorological tower and INMET meteorological stations, for the same study period. In the last stage the time series of the BE components was constructed from the METRIC model. The period series was 14 years from 2002 to 2016.The results showed that the three models analyzed were consistent with the reference measurements, with the greatest limitations presented by the SEBAL model, which are mainly attributed to the state's eco-climatic conditions and the low spatial resolution of the images In the analysis of the spatial variability, the METRIC model presented greater consistency in the results and provided greater number of days with valid results, this model thus indicated as the most suitable for the rest of the study. The time series constructed allowed us to understand the temporal distribution patterns of BE components in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. There is a marked seasonality in the BE components, with higher values in summer and lower in winter. G is the smallest magnitude component and its spatial and temporal distribution is determined by the Rn distribution. On the other hand, the LE and H components are those that show higher magnitude and present spatial and temporal distribution patterns consistent with the climatic conditions and the types of use and coverage in the study area. An inverse pattern is observed, with a LE gradient from north-west to south-east and for H-component, from southeast to northwest.

Avec la pression croissante sur les ressources en eau accentuée par la menace des changementsglobaux, l'agriculture irriguée, surtout dans les régions semi-arides, se trouve confrontée à denouvelles exigences. Une gestion optimale des ressources en eau est indispensable dans les périmètresirrigués afin d'éviter à la fois l'irrigation excessive et le stress hydrique dommageable aux cultures.Dans ce contexte, proposer un outil simple, parcimonieux et robuste, facile à mettre en placepermettant de suivre le besoin réel en eau des cultures, à différentes échelles spatio-temporelles,permettrait d’apporter un indicateur tangible quant à l’efficience de l’irrigation dans les périmètresirrigués. Ce travail de thèse a pour objectif d’évaluer et d’adapter plusieurs outils de suivi del’évapotranspiration des cultures irriguées de l’échelle parcellaire à l’échelle régionale par l’utilisationde la télédétection multi-capteurs et multi-résolution. Notre zone d’étude est le bassin versant duTensift au Maroc, objet d’étude du LMI TREMA (Jarlan et al., 2015) et support de l’observatoireTensift. Nous avons identifié 3 outils : un modèle de bilan d’énergie de surface (TSEB ; Norman et al.,1995) piloté par une observation de température radiométrique qui renseigne indirectement sur l’étathydrique de surface ; l’approche à coefficient cultural double de la FAO-56 (Allen et al., 1998) quiprédit l’état hydrique de surface par la résolution d’un bilan hydrique mais nécessite en contre-partiede connaître précisément les apports d’eau, grandeur très incertaine sur les périmètres irrigués àl’échelle parcellaire ; la modélisation globale qui, par opposition aux deux autres, est une approcheautonome ne nécessitant aucun forçage externe. Dans un premier temps, la confrontation dessimulations du modèle TSEB à un ensemble de mesures expérimentales recueillies à l’échelleparcellaire durant 2 saisons agricoles ainsi qu’à l’approche FAO-56 préalablement calibrée sur lesprincipales cultures de notre région d’étude sur la base de travaux antérieurs a permis de montrer que :- le modèle TSEB est très robuste et offre des performances acceptables pour la prédiction del’évapotranspiration (RMSE < 1mm/jour sur 4 sites lors de deux saisons agricoles) ; - les bonnescapacités de cet outil pour la détection de stress hydrique ; - une bonne aptitude également àpartitionner l’évapotranspiration entre évaporation du sol et transpiration de la plante. Dans un 2èmetemps, nous avons évalué les capacités prédictives d’un modèle global que nous avons développé surla base d’une série temporelle d’évapotranspiration observée sur le terrain. La modélisation globale estbasée sur la théorie des systèmes dynamique non-linéaire. Si elle ne possède pas les capacitésexplicatives des modèles mécanistes évoqués ci-dessus, peut être une bonne alternative pour laprévision de l’évapotranspiration. L’analyse de l’horizon de prévisibilité du modèle global que nousavons obtenu montre un intérêt limité pour les agriculteurs ou les gestionnaires puisque cet horizonn’excède pas 3h. Néanmoins, cette approche, très originale dans ce contexte, reste particulièrementséduisante et ouvre plusieurs perspectives. Enfin, nous avons développé un prototype « tout satellite »,basé sur le modèle TSEB et qui utilise uniquement les produits gratuits MODIS et les ré-analysesERA-Interim, pour le suivi spatialisée et à long terme de la consommation en eau des cultures dans lebassin versant du Tensift. Après une évaluation des forçages ERA-Interim, nous avons évalué laperformance du prototype par (1) confrontation des prédictions des composantes du bilan d’énergieaux données expérimentales de l’observation Tensift et (2) confrontation de la consommationmensuelle prédite au niveau des principaux périmètres irrigués de la région aux apports d’eaumensuels fournis par l’office régional qui gère ces périmètres... / With the increasing pressure on water resources accentuated by the climate change threat, irrigated agriculture, especially in semi-arid zone, faced more challenges. Optimal management of water resources is essential in irrigated areas in order to avoid both excessive irrigation and water stress that is harmful to the growth of crops. In this context, proposing a simple, parsimonious and robust, easyto- use tool for monitoring the crop water requirement at different spatial and temporal scales would provide a tangible indicator of irrigation efficiency over irrigated perimeters. This thesis aims to evaluate and adapt several tools for monitoring the evapotranspiration of irrigated crops from the plot scale to the regional scale through the use of multi-sensor and multi-resolution remote sensing observations. Our study area is the Tensift watershed in Morocco, studied by LMI TREMA (Jarlan et al., 2015) and supported by the Tensift observatory. We identified 3 tools: a surface energy balance model (TSEB; Norman et al., 1995) driven by a radiometric temperature observation that provides indirect information on surface water status; the FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach predicts the hydric status by computing the water balance but requires the know precisely the water input, very difficult to obtain on the plot scale of irrigated perimeters ; global modeling which, as opposed to the first two, is an autonomous approach requiring no external forcing. Firstly, the comparison of the TSEB model simulations with a set of experimental measurements collected on a plot scale during 2 consecutive agricultural seasons and with the results of the calibrated FAO-56 dual crop coefficient approach has shown that : - the TSEB model is very robust and offers acceptable performance for the prediction of evapotranspiration (RMSE <1mm / day during the two agricultural seasons); - a good capabilities of TSEB model for detection water stress; - a good ability also to partition the evapotranspiration between evaporation of the soil and transpiration of the plant. In the second step, we evaluated the predictive capacities of a global model that we developed on the basis of a time series of evapotranspiration observed in the field. Global modeling is based on the theory of the nonlinear dynamic systems theory. If it does not have the explanatory capabilities of the mechanistic models mentioned above, it may be a good alternative for predicting evapotranspiration. The analysis of the horizon of predictability of the global model that we obtained shows a limited interest for the farmers or the managers since this horizon does not exceed 3h. Nevertheless, this approach, very original in this context, remains particularly attractive and opens perspectives. Finally, we have developed a prototype, based on the TSEB model and using only MODIS free products and ERAInterim reanalyses, for monitoring evapotranspiration at Tensift watershed scale and over long periods. After an evaluation of the ERA-Interim products, we evaluated the prototype performance by (1) comparing the predictions of the energy balance components to the experimental data from Tensift observatory and (2) comparing the predicted monthly consumption at the main irrigated perimeters of the region with monthly water supplies provided by the regional office which manages these perimeters. Thus, there is a strong overestimation (almost a factor of 2) of the water consumed compared to the inflow of water, which could be related to the high number of boreholes in the region. This work and the tools developed opens perspectives for piloting and managing agricultural water in semi-arid regions.

Resumo: Considerando a importância da compreensão da dinâmica espaço temporal dos componentes do balanço de energia (BE) em escala regional para o gerenciamento de recursos hídrico e o manejo agrícola, o objetivo principal desta tese foi construir e analisar uma série temporal dos componentes do BE adequada às condições de clima subtropical úmido do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Para tanto, inicialmente foi avaliada a adequação de modelos de estimativa de BE para o Estado. Nesta etapa foram utilizados produtos MODIS e dados de referência medidos em uma torre micrometeorológica instalada em Cruz Alta – RS, usando valores instantâneos para um período de estudo de 2009 a 2011. Na sequência foi avaliada a adequação dos modelos em representar a variabilidade espacial dos componentes do BE. Nesta etapa foram usados produtos MODIS, dados de reanálise ERA Interim, dados de referência da torre micrometeorológica e dados de estações meteorológicas do INMET, para o mesmo período de estudo. Na última etapa do trabalho foi construída a série temporal dos componentes do BE usando o modelo METRIC, a qual abrangeu um período de 14 anos, de 2002 a 2016. Os resultados demonstraram que os três modelos analisados apresentam coerência com as medidas de referência, sendo as maiores limitações apresentadas pelo modelo SEBAL, as quais se atribui principalmente às condições ecoclimáticas do Estado e a baixa resolução espacial das imagens. Na análise da variabilidade espacial, o modelo METRIC apresentou maior consistência nos resultados e proporcionou maior número de dias com resultados válidos, sendo assim apontado como o mais apto para realização do restante do estudo. A série temporal construída possibilitou a compreensão dos padrões de distribuição espaço temporal dos componentes do BE no estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Há uma marcada sazonalidade nos componentes do BE, com maiores valores no verão e menores no inverno. G (fluxo de calor no solo) é o componente de menor magnitude e sua distribuição espacial e temporal é determinada pela distribuição de Rn (saldo de radiação). Já os componentes LE (fluxo de calor latente) e H (fluxo de calor sensível), são os que mostram magnitude maior e apresentam padrões de distribuição espacial e temporal coerentes com as condições climáticas e com os tipos de uso e cobertura na área de estudo. Observase um padrão inverso, com um gradiente de LE no sentido noroeste para sudeste e para o componente H, no sentido sudeste para noroeste. Sendo estas informações de grande importância para gerenciamento de recursos hídricos em escala regional, para estudos de zoneamento agrícola. / Abstract: Given the importance of understanding the temporal and spatial dynamics of of the energy balance (EB) components in a regional scale for the management of water resources and agricultural, the main objective of this thesis was to construct and analyze a time series of the components of BE appropriate to the subtropical humid climate conditions of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. In order to reach the objective initially, the adequacy of the models for the humid climate conditions was evaluated, in this step we used MODIS data and reference data measured in a micrometeorological tower installed in Cruz Alta - RS. The analyzes performed with instantaneous values and the study period was from 2009 to 2011. The next step evaluate the spatial variability of the BE components, the data used were the MODIS products, ERA Interim reanalysis data, reference data of the micrometeorological tower and INMET meteorological stations, for the same study period. In the last stage the time series of the BE components was constructed from the METRIC model. The period series was 14 years from 2002 to 2016.The results showed that the three models analyzed were consistent with the reference measurements, with the greatest limitations presented by the SEBAL model, which are mainly attributed to the state's eco-climatic conditions and the low spatial resolution of the images In the analysis of the spatial variability, the METRIC model presented greater consistency in the results and provided greater number of days with valid results, this model thus indicated as the most suitable for the rest of the study. The time series constructed allowed us to understand the temporal distribution patterns of BE components in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. There is a marked seasonality in the BE components, with higher values in summer and lower in winter. G is the smallest magnitude component and its spatial and temporal distribution is determined by the Rn distribution. On the other hand, the LE and H components are those that show higher magnitude and present spatial and temporal distribution patterns consistent with the climatic conditions and the types of use and coverage in the study area. An inverse pattern is observed, with a LE gradient from north-west to south-east and for H-component, from southeast to northwest.

Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-27T15:03:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DANILO ERICKSEN COSTA CABRAL – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 3103151 bytes, checksum: 21c39f5e775ca2cffae4904318258171 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T15:03:16Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DANILO ERICKSEN COSTA CABRAL – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2018.pdf: 3103151 bytes, checksum: 21c39f5e775ca2cffae4904318258171 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-22 / Analisou-se neste estudo a tendência anual e a média global da Água Precipitável (AP) no período de 1986 a 2016. Foram utilizados dados extraídos das reanálises do ERAInterim/ European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A partir destes dados avaliou-se a distribuição espacial da tendência de Água Precipitável. Para a análise da tendência climática aplicou-se testes estatísticos de Mann-Kendall e t de Student observandose o comportamento das séries globais. Para a variável AP, foi encontrado o valor médio de 24,4mm para todo o período, correspondendo a um volume estimado para toda a atmosfera. Os resultados apontam tendências significativas de 0,0246; 0,0121 e 0,0203 mm/ano para o HN; HS e todo o Globo, respectivamente. Foi observada uma tendência positiva para algumas áreas do globo bem como outras negativas, resultando em uma distribuição não homogênea, denotando-se uma provável tendência de aumento do vapor d’água no globo. / In this study was analyzed the annual trend and the global mean of Precipitation Water (WP) from 1986 to 2016. Data extracted from the ERA-Interim / European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis were used. From these data was evaluated the Precipitation Water tendency spatial distribution. For the analysis of the climatic trend, Mann-Kendall and t-Student statistical tests were applied, observing the behavior of the global series. For the WP variable was found the average value of 24.4 mm for the whole period, corresponding to estimated volume for the whole atmosphere. The results indicate significant trends of 0.0246, 0.0121 and 0.0203 mm /year for HN; HS and the whole Globe, respectively. A positive trend was observed for some areas of globe as well as negative values, resulting the not homogeneous distribution, denoting a probable tendency to increase water vapor in the globe.

Dans le contexte du réchauffement et du changement climatique, il est important d’étudier les distributions, les cycles saisonniers et les tendances des gaz à l’état de trace dans l’atmosphère tels que la vapeur d’eau. L'Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand a en charge plusieurs dispositifs d’observation dont le site instrumenté Cézeaux, Opme et Puy de Dôme (CO-PDD) situés dans le centre de la France (45◦ N, 3◦ E). Le site des Cézeaux dispose d’un LIDAR Rayleigh – Mie - Raman fournissant en routine des profils verticaux de vapeur d’eau et de paramètres optiques caractérisant les cirrus. Le site du puy de Dôme est équipé d’un spectroscope à cavité optique (CRDS-Picarro). Des mesures de colonnes totales de vapeur d’eau sont disponibles sur tous ces sites par GPS. Le site d’Opme est équipé d’un pluviomètre. Enfin Météo-France effectue le travail de contrôle qualité des données météorologiques sur les stations de mesure en France et ces données ont été utilisées dans cette thèse. La validation des données sur le site du puy de Dôme a été la première la première exploitation dans cette thèse. Des comparaisons des données sur le puy de Dôme ont montré un très bon accord entre les données de vapeur d’eau extraites de la station météorologique du puy de Dôme, de Météo France et les donnes CRDS du puy de Dôme, avec une corrélation de 0.94 et 0.98 respectivement. Les profils verticaux obtenus par LIDAR ont permis de sélectionner une anomalie de vapeur d’eau et d’identifier une intrusion stratosphère-troposphère en analysant les processus dynamique associés à cette anomalie. Les données OLR ont montré que cette intrusion est accompagnée de convection profonde et enfin LACYTRAJ confirme l'origine stratosphérique d’une partie de la masse d'air présente au-dessus de Clermont-Ferrand au cours de l’anomalie. Les longues séries d’observations (ex : Puy de Dôme 1995-2015) et des ré-analyse ECMWF ERA-Interim (1979-2017) et la diversité des sources de données (ex : satellites AIRS et COSMIC), nous permettent de documenter, analyser et comparer la variabilité, les cycles et la tendance de la vapeur d'eau à la surface et dans la troposphère, à différentes échelles de temps et déterminer les processus géophysiques responsables des distributions de vapeur d'eau sur le site CO-PDD. Le cycle annuel de la vapeur d'eau est clairement établi pour les deux sites de différentes altitudes et pour tous les types de mesure. Les sites de Cézeaux et du puy de Dôme ne présentent presque aucun cycle diurne, suggérant que la variabilité de la vapeur d'eau à la surface sur ces deux sites est plus influencée par les systèmes météorologique sporadiques que par les variations diurnes régulières. Les données LIDAR montrent une plus grande variabilité mensuelle de la distribution verticale que les produits satellites COSMIC et AIRS. La colonne totale de vapeur d'eau GPS sur le site des Cézeaux présente une tendance positive (0,42 ± 0,45 g/kg*décade entre 2006-2017). L'analyse par régressions multi-linéaires montre que les forçages continentaux (East Atlantic, East Atlantic-West Russia) ont une plus grande influence que le forçage océanique (Nord Atlantic Oscillation) sur les variations de vapeur d'eau. / In the context of global warming and climate change, it is important to study the distributions, seasonal cycles and trends of trace gases in the atmosphere such as water vapor. of the Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand is in charge of several observation devices including the instrumented site Cézeaux, Opme and Puy de Dôme (CO-PDD) located near the center of France (45◦ N, 3◦ E). The site of Cézeaux is instrumented by a Rayleigh - Mie–LIDAR Raman providing routine vertical profiles of water vapor mixing ratio and optical parameters characterizing cirrus clouds. The puy de Dôme site is equipped with an optical cavity spectroscope (CRDS-Picarro). Measurements of total water vapor columns are available on all these sites by GPS. The Opme site is equipped with rain gauges. Finally, Météo-France performs the quality control work and of data on meteorological stations in France and these data were used in this thesis. The validation of the puy de Dôme data was the first the first task in this thesis. Comparisons between the puy de Dôme data sets showed a very good agreement between the water vapor datafrom the OPGC meteorological station of Puy de Dôme, Météo France and CRDS data with a correlation of 0.94 and 0.98 respectively. The vertical profiles deduced from the LIDAR allowed to identify a water vapor anomaly and a stratosphere-troposphere intrusion associated with this anomaly. OLR data showed that this intrusion could be linked with deep convection and LACYTRAJ confirms the stratospheric origin of a part of the air mass present above Clermont-Ferrand. Long series of observations (eg Puy de Dôme 1995-2015) and ECMWF ERA-Interim re-analysis (1979-2017) and the diversity of data sources (eg AIRS and COSMIC satellites), allowed us to document, analyze and compare the variability, cycles and trend of surface and tropospheric water vapor at different time scales and determine the geophysical processes responsible for water vapor distributions at the site of CO-PDD. The annual cycle of water vapor is clearly established for the two sites of different altitudes and for all types of measurement. Cézeaux and puy de Dôme present almost no diurnal cycle, suggesting that the variability of surface water vapor at this site is more influenced by a sporadic meteorological system than by regular diurnal variations. The LIDAR dataset shows a greater monthly variability of the vertical distribution than the COSMIC and AIRS satellite products. The Cézeaux site presents a positive trend for the GPS water vapor total column (0.42 ± 0.45 g/kg*decade during 2006–2017) and a significant negative trend for the surface water vapor mixing ratio (−0.16 ± 0.09 mm/decade during 2002–2017). The multi-linear regression analysis shows that continental forcings (East Atlantic Pattern and East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern) have a larger influence than oceanic forcing (North Atlantic Oscillation) on the water vapor variations.