O paradigma neoinstitucional assumiu, no fim do século XX e no começo do XXI, um papel de preponderância na Ciência Política, ditando as epistemologias e os métodos de se produzir conhecimento na disciplina. Suas duas principais correntes – institucionalismo da escolha racional e institucionalismo histórico – constituem marcos distintos de explicação dos fenômenos políticos, sendo os principais referenciais teóricos nas análises políticas institucionais. Porém, ambas correntes apresentam diversos problemas epistemológicos, fundados principalmente no caráter estático de suas abordagens sobre a fenomenologia política. Embora tal postura teórica fosse outrora suficiente para explicar a política, no mundo dinâmico atual, uma nova teoria que capte o dinamismo dos fenômenos políticos faz-se necessária. Neste sentido, o objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar uma proposta heurística para a análise das mudanças institucionais, denominada institucionalismo evolucionário. Esse modelo heurístico dialoga com a teoria evolucionária, o neoinstitucionalismo e a teoria dos jogos. Além da proposição desse modelo, este trabalho exemplifica sua aplicação por meio da análise da evolução das dinâmicas de segurança nas relações entre Polônia e Rússia no pós-Guerra Fria. / At the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, the neoinstitutionalist paradigm assumed a preponderant role in Political Science, dictating the epistemologies and methods for producing knowledge in the discipline. Its two main theoretical streams – rational choice institutionalism and historical institutionalism – constitute distinct approaches to explaining political phenomena, and are the main theories for analysing politics under the framework of the paradigm. Nevertheless, both theories present many epistemological problems, based mainly in their static approach to political phenomenology. Although these theories have once managed to explain reality, our current dynamic world demands a new theory capable of analysing the dynamics of political phenomena. Therefore, this work aims to present a heuristics capable of understanding institutional change, known as evolutionary institutionalism. This heuristics dialogues with evolutionary theory, neoinstitutionalism and game theory. Other than this theoretical model, this work applies it in the analysis of security dynamics in the context of Polish-Russian relations in the post-Cold War period.

Novel infectious diseases in humans are of great concern to public health authorities and researchers in epidemiology. Zoonotic pathogens in particular have the potential to cause epidemics without any or little warning. In this thesis, I investigate evolutionary and environmental conditions, and the interactions between both, which facilitate the zoonotic emergence of novel pathogens. I start with a list of the mechanisms and processes which might influence a zoonotic emergence, and identify some unsolved problems. I address these with multiple, theoretical models. First, I use a village-city model with different adaptation scenarios to examine the influence of spatial heterogeneity on the emergence process. I derive general analytical results for the statistical properties of emergence events, including the probability distribution of outbreak sizes. My results suggest that, for typical connection strengths between communities, spatial heterogeneity has only a weak effect on outbreak size distributions, and on the risk of emergence per introduction. Next, I extend the research on environmental conditions by looking at pathogen specialisation in multi-host systems. I derive threshold connectivities for which generalist pathogens, which infect multiple species and might therefore be more dangerous to cross into the human species, can sustain transmission and are not dominated by specialists, which can only cause sustained transmission chains in a single host species, but are able to cause emergences with little warning. My third research chapter is interested in the effect of the loss of biodiversity. I analytically derive expected prevalences for fast growing and slow growing species. If fast growing species tend to perform better in degraded environments, my analytical results suggest that the overall prevalence level of infectious diseases will rise as environments degrade, which facilitates the chance of zoonotic jumps. In my last research chapter, I examine the actual impact of a novel, emerging infectious disease. I use data from the recent `Swine flu' epidemic in England to estimate epidemiological parameters of the infectious agent. My results suggest that the majority of infected cases showed no or only mild symptoms. This reveals that more data than just the estimated number of cases are necessary to fully evaluate the danger of a possible zoonotic, emerging infectious disease. I conclude by discussing my results and the implications which these might have.

Endophytes are organisms that live inside plants without causing disease and include microbes that benefit their hosts by aiding in nutrient acquisition and pathogen control. This thesis concerns the endophytes of the genus Zea which includes modern maize (Zea mays L.). Beginning 9,000 years ago, maize was domesticated from wild grasses in Mexico (teosintes), bred into diverse varieties and moved to new soils throughout the Americas. The impact of these long-term changes on the associated endophytic communities has not been examined. Furthermore, today, maize is routinely transplanted around the world to facilitate breeding, but the short-term impact of switching soils on endophyte composition is not known. I attempted to answer the first question by surveying the bacterial endophytes that inhabit 14 diverse ancestral, ancient and modern Zea genotypes. To answer the second question, three extreme Zea genotypes, ancestral, intermediate and modern, were grown side by side on two extreme soils that span the tropical-to-temperate migration route of maize. Endophyte populations from seeds, roots and shoots were DNA fingerprinted using terminal restriction length polymorphism (TRFLP) of 16S rDNA. To understand microbial functions, bacteria were cultured and tested for >13 in vitro traits including nitrogen fixation, phosphate solubilization, plant hormone production and antibiosis. Relationships between endophyte communities were analyzed using principle component analysis (PCA) and Sᴓrensen’s similarity index. The results show that different Zea tissues and genotypes have diverse endophytic communities. The community composition of seed endophytes correlates with host phylogeny suggesting that as humans bred maize, they inadvertently impacted its microbial inhabitants, though the change was gradual. Soil swapping and growth on sterile sand confirm that shoot and root endophyte communities in juvenile plants are primarily inherited. However, a given maize genotype can also select and take up the same microbes (based on TRFLP) from geographically diverse soils. These latter results show that the endophyte communities of Zea plants are significantly buffered from the short-term effects of migration. A few microbes and microbial traits are conserved across all Zea genotypes and soil treatments, suggestive of a core taxonomic and functional microbiota for this agriculturally important genus. / OMAFRA New Directions, Ontario Research Fund, Canadian Foundation for Innovation

Organisms are frequently faced with uncertainty regarding how best to exploit vital resources, and may benefit from collecting information about their distribution through space and time. However, the ways in which competition over resources might systematically facilitate or constrain an individual's ability to use information has been largely overlooked. In this thesis, I develop a conceptual framework for considering how the distribution of limited resources might underpin interdependencies between competition and information use. I focus on the evolutionary ecology of relationships between social dominance and social information use. I begin with an observational study of wild chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) suggesting that, when resources can be monopolised, individuals with low competitive ability are limited in their ability to use social information. Building on these findings, I then develop a general model exploring selection on social information use in a competitive context across three axes of 'resource ecology' (scarcity, depletion rate, monopolisability). This study makes predictions regarding the resource conditions under which competitive ability might constrain social information use, and the potential importance of social information use in the evolution of social dominance. I go on to test these predictions in chacma baboons using a field experiment. This experiment also explores whether the predictability of resource distribution might facilitate the decoupling of social information use from the competitive context in which it was collected. Taken together, these findings provide general insights into the combinations of ecological conditions and behavioural mechanisms that should underpin the benefits of social dominance. I end by building a simple population matrix model to study social dominance using an eco-evolutionary approach, in which feedback loops between ecological and evolutionary processes are considered. By modelling relationships between dominance rank and survival, reproduction, inheritance, and development, I am able to derive estimates of long-term fitness associated with dominance. Using these estimates, I generate predictions regarding how dominance hierarchies should impact the dynamics of group stability, viability, and fission.

The sap beetle genus Carpophilus Stephens (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) is a large genus consisting of over 200 species and are found worldwide. Several species are important pests of crops and stored products, and are frequently intercepted as part of biosecurity operations. The genus is poorly known taxonomically, and there are several species groups that are challenging to identify by morphological methods. In particular, two species found across the Pacific, C. maculatus Murray and C. oculatus Murray are frequently confused with each other. These two species are similar in size and colour, but differ primarily by the shape of the colour pattern on their elytra. However, this colour pattern is highly variable within both species, leading to ambiguity in the indentification of these species. Within C. oculatus, three subspecies have been described based on differences in the male genitalia and pronotal punctation: C. o. oculatus and C. o. gilloglyi Dobson are distributed widely across the Pacific, while C. o. cheesmani Dobson is known only from Vanuatu. A search of literature records and specimen collections revealed 32 species of Carpophilus recorded from the Pacific region. In addition there remain several unidentified specimens representing at least four species, two of which will be described subsequent to this research. A number of species recorded in the literature may have been misidentified, and these require further field collections and inspection of museum specimens to confirm their presence in the Pacific. To test the validity of the subspecies of C. oculatus, and its distinctiveness from C. maculatus, a phylogeny of available specimens of Carpophilus was inferred from one mitochondrial gene (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI)), and two nuclear genes (28S ribsomal RNA (28S) and the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2)). These data show large genetic distances between the three subspecies of C. oculatus of 7-12%. Given these distances are similar to those between other species in the genus, this indicates these subspecies may be elevated to full species. The data also consistently support a monophyletic relationship between C. o. oculatus and C. o. gilloglyi. Nuclear genes also support C. o. cheesmani as part of a clade with the other subspecies, but these relationships are unresolved in COI. Carpophilus maculatus was not supported as being the sister taxon of the C. o. oculatus and C. o. gilloglyi clade. Other relationships within Carpophilus were unresolved, possibly due to a combination of incomplete taxon sampling, and saturation of substitutions within the COI gene. Phylogeographic analysis of specimens collected from several localities within the range of C. oculatus showed that, with only one exception, there were no shared haplotypes between archipelagoes. This result suggests it may be possible to determine the provenence of intercepted specimens, providing further information regarding potential invasion pathways. A degree of geographic structuring was also present within C. o. gilloglyi, being separated into a western clade found in Fiji and Rotuma and an eastern clade distributed from the Kermadec Islands and Tonga to French Polynesia. This separation was most profound in COI data, with a mean pairwise distance between the clades of 7%. ITS2 data also demonstrates a degree of differentiation between the two clades, based on differences in the insertions and deletions between the clades. The variability in the shape and colour of the elytral pattern of C. oculatus was also investigated. Colour was quantified using a method based on Red-Green-Blue (RGB) colour values derived from digital photographs, while an outline analysis of the elytral pattern was conducted using elliptic Fourier analysis (EFA). Principal Components Analysis of the RGB values and EFA coefficients showed no clear separation between subspecies, nor were any trends correlated with host fruit or collection localities. Variation at all levels and all measures studied in this thesis show that this geographic region and this genus of beetles offer intruiging insights into speciation, biogeography and biological invasions. There is much scope for further research on the causes and consequences of this variation and the lives of these interesting insects.