No description available.

Magister Artium (Development Studies) - MA(DVS) / In line with neoclassical economic growth propositions that outward-orientation fosters economic growth, since independence from Britain in 1964 the Government of Malawi has placed international trade at the centre of its economic development agenda. In spite of this theoretical affirmation of the trade-growth relationship, some empirical studies that have been done both in the country and abroad show contrary results. This prompted this study to be undertaken with the aim of assessing the impact of exports and imports on economic growth in Malawi from 1970 to 2010.This study has used a neoclassic economic growth model containing gross domestic product, exports, imports, capital and labour force as variables of analysis. After collecting annual time series data on the variables for the period 1970 to 2010 from the World Bank online statistical data base, Ordinary Least Squares regression and several econometric tests were run on the model to ensure robust and accurate results. Statistical accuracy of the findings was further cemented by use of the 5 percent level of significance. Exports were found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on the country’s economic growth, while imports had a negative and insignificant influence. Similarly, capital and labour force showed a positive effect on economic growth even though the capital’s effect was statistically insignificant. Nevertheless, the study also strongly confirmed the presence of a long-run equilibrium among the variables. The above results strongly suggest that Malawi should continue with its export-led economic growth strategies such as the Economic Recovery Plan (ERP) and the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MDGS). However, if the two economic development plans are to bear fruit this study strongly urges Malawi to consider diversifying its economy away from primary export production and instead embark on value-addition. Furthermore, the country should not only reduce the importation of consumer goods in favour of capital goods, but also improve the quality of the labour force and capital formation, if Malawi is to realise its economic development and poverty alleviation aspirations.

Submitted by Fabielle Cheuczuk (fabielle.cheuczuk@unioeste.br) on 2017-11-30T12:47:57Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Keli_Prezzotto_Machado 2017.pdf: 909609 bytes, checksum: a65f2ab12d77f2ed7e3947dedc7f9caf (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-30T12:47:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Keli_Prezzotto_Machado 2017.pdf: 909609 bytes, checksum: a65f2ab12d77f2ed7e3947dedc7f9caf (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-23 / The causes of economic growth, as well as the need for international trade between countries, have long been discussed. The factors that aid growth have changed according to each economic school. Economic growth is considered to be measured through GDP, so some jobs use exports as a possible source of consistent growth in the long run. In this sense, it was proposed to verify the role played by exports in terms of the acceleration of Brazilian economic growth? In order to answer this question, this study aims to analyze whether exports are preponderant to the economic growth of Brazil in the period from 1975 to 2017. For this purpose, we will use the Export-led-growth (ELG) hypothesis, which Exports boosts economic growth. Using time series data of the GDP and exports variables, the adopted econometric procedures were the unit root test to test the stationarity, Johansen cointegration test to verify the existence of cointegration between the variables, and the Granger causality test to verify The causality. The main results suggest the absence of cointegration and the bias of the variables for the analysis period. / As causas do crescimento econômico, bem como a necessidade do comércio internacional entre os países, vem há muito tempo sendo discutidas. Os fatores que auxiliam no crescimento foram mudando de acordo com cada escola econômica. Considera-se que o crescimento econômico é mensurado através do PIB, da mesma forma, alguns trabalhos utilizam-se das exportações como sendo uma possível fonte de crescimento consistente no longo prazo. Nesse sentido, qual o papel desempenhado pelas exportações no que tange a aceleração do crescimento econômico brasileiro? Para responder este questionamento, este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar se as exportações são preponderantes para o crescimento econômico do Brasil no período de 1975 a 2017. Para tanto, utilizou-se da hipótese Export-led-growth (ELG), a qual verifica que as exportações impulsionam o crescimento econômico. Utilizandose dos dados de séries temporais das variáveis PIB e exportações, os procedimentos econométricos adotados foram o teste de raiz unitária para testar a estacionariedade, teste de cointegração de Johansen para verificar a existência de cointegração entre as variáveis, e o teste de causalidade de Granger para verificar a causalidade. Os principais resultados sugerem a ausência de cointegração e a bicausalidade no sentido de Granger entre as variáveis para o período de análise.

With an ever-increasing globalising world, trade is of most importance for developing countries to not fall behind and be outcompeted. Export-led growth theory states that one of the key determinants for economic growth is exports. This thesis aims to analyse the causal effects of exports on economic growth in the case of Brazil. Annual data from the World Bank’s database for the years 1990-2018 has been used. The variables included are GDP, exports, gross capital formation, FDI and labour force. This study puts the export-led growth theory in a Vector Error Correction – Granger Causality framework. As opposed to previous scholars’ findings, neither export-led growth nor growth-led export could be determined for Brazil.

Magister Commercii - MCom / The objective of this study is to investigate the empirical relationship between exports and economic growth in order to ascertain whether the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid in the case of South Africa. This study has not only focused on sectoral exports for the period 1990-2011; but it has also examined total exports for the period extending from 1970 to 2011. Using quarterly data and time series econometric techniques of co-integration and Granger-causality tests over the two set of periods, the key findings of the study are as follows: (i) At the aggregate level (using total exports): the technique of co-integration suggests that total exports and GDP moved together in the long-run, though deviations from the steady state might happen in the short-run. Furthermore, Granger causality tests inferred from the Vector Error Correction model reveal that the direction of causality between export and GDP growth is bidirectional. (ii) At the sectoral level (using the main component of exports): export-growth link emerges as a long-run behavioural relationship since a co-integrating relation was found among output and agricultural, manufactured and mining exports. This relationship demonstrates that manufactured exports have the greatest positive impact on output growth. (iii) Sectoral level Granger-causality tests based on ECM reveal the existence of a long run causality running from manufactured exports to GDP; whereas the short-run causality runs from manufactured and mining exports to GDP. However, the Toda-Yamamoto Granger test confirms only short-run causality from manufactured exports to GDP. In both cases, there is evidence of a uni-directional causality from exports to GDP.The above results show that the hypothesis of export-led growth is valid for South Africa. This implies that exports, particularly manufactured and mining exports play a key role in driving economic growth. Hence, the key policy implication of these results is that, measures which aim at stimulating production for exports and shifting the content of exports will meaningfully contribute to the improvement of GDP growth and employment prospects in South Africa.

This study uses annual data for the period 1975-2014 for South Africa and Botswana, and 1979-2013 for Lesotho to examine empirically the impact of trade openness on economic growth in these three South African Customs Union (SACU) countries. The motivation for this study is that SACU countries are governed by the common agreement for the union that oversees the movement of goods that enter the SACU area. However, although these countries are in a com-mon union, they have quite different levels of development. Based on the country’s level of development, Lesotho is a lower middle-income and least developed country, whereas Botswana and South Africa are upper middle-income economies. Thus, these disparities in the levels of economic development of SACU countries i are expected to have different implications in relation to the extent to which trade openness affects economic growth. It is within this background that the current study seeks to examine what impact trade openness has on economic growth in each of the three selected countries. To check the robustness of the empirical results, this study uses four equations based on four different indicators of trade openness to examine the linkage between trade openness and economic growth. While Equation 1, Equation 2 and Equation 3 employ trade-based indicators of openness, Equation 4 uses a modified version of the UNCTAD (2012a) trade openness index that incorporates differences in country size and geography. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling, the study found that the impact of trade openness on economic growth varies across the three SACU countries. Based on the results for the first three equations, the study found that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in South Africa and Botswana, whereas it has no significant impact on economic growth in Lesotho. Based on Equation 4 results, the study found that after taking the differences in country size and geography into account, trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in Botswana, but an insignificant impact in South Africa and Lesotho. For South Africa and Botswana, the main recommendation from this study is that policy makers should pursue policies that promote total trade to increase economic growth in both the short and the long run. For Lesotho, the study recommends, among other things, the adoption of policies aimed at enhancing human capital and infrastructural development as well as the broadening of exports, so as to enable the economy to grow to a threshold level necessary for the realisation of significant gains from trade. / Economics

<p>The objective of this study is to empirically examine the export-led growth hypothesis in Mozambique using quarterly time series data over the period of 1987-2004, applying a co-integration analysis, Engle and Granger&rsquo / s (1987) Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger causality test. The paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth and othe explanatory variables, such as real exports, imports, labour force, gross capital formation, terms of trade, civil war and natural disasters (the last two as dummy variables).</p>

The paper discusses the interactions of changes in income distribution and the accumulation dynamics in the post-Fordist accumulation regime in OECD countries, which is characterized by deregulated financial markets. The neoliberal mode of regulation came with a decisive shift in power relations at the expense of labor, which is clearly reflected in the fall of wage shares across OECD economies. The notion of a "finance-dominated" accumulation regime is proposed to highlight that financial developments crucially shape the pattern and the pace of accumulation. Financial globalization has relaxed balance of payment constraints and thereby allowed the build up of big international imbalances. The combination of real wage moderation and financial liberalization has led to different strategies (or at least outcomes) in different countries. While some countries (like the USA) exhibit a credit-fuelled consumption-driven growth model that comes with large current account deficits, others (like Germany and Japan) show an export-driven growth model with modest consumption growth and large current account surpluses. Overall the finance-dominated accumulation regime is characterized by a mediocre growth performance and by a high degree of fragility. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

<p>The objective of this study is to empirically examine the export-led growth hypothesis in Mozambique using quarterly time series data over the period of 1987-2004, applying a co-integration analysis, Engle and Granger&rsquo / s (1987) Error Correction Model (ECM) and the Granger causality test. The paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth and othe explanatory variables, such as real exports, imports, labour force, gross capital formation, terms of trade, civil war and natural disasters (the last two as dummy variables).</p>

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Wayne Nafziger / This dissertation constructs three empirical essays. The first essay illustrates the causality on the relationship between output (GDP) growth and exports. By using the Modified Wald (MWald) test we observe unidirectional causality from exports to GDP. More specifically, for the robustness we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model and the Generalized Impulse Response Function Analysis (GIRA). The VECM and the GIRA yield bidirectional causality between exports and GDP, which weakly supports the unidirectional result of the to MWald test. Meanwhile, we confirm that there is structure break by using the structural break test. These results are plausible and consistent with the expectations of our study for the Export Led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH). However, compared with previous studies on the ELGH for Korea, our results are different. Other studies show a bidirectional causality relationship but this study only has unidirectional causality. These differences may be caused from different observation data, various variables, and use of different econometric methodologies. Also, model selection and omitting variables can also significantly change the results of causality testing. The second essay investigates a degree of competition between Korea's and China's exports in the U.S. market by using the substitute elasticity on a simple demand model. The market share of Korean exports has been decreasing while that of China's has been increasing. The results of this study are as follows. First, we find that Korea has a dominant market share of only goods group code 27 in commodity groups over that of China, otherwise having China's dominant market shares over those of Korea for other export sections by using historical trade data. Second, most estimates of substitute elasticity between both countries' exports in the U.S. market are small (inelastic). However, 61 (apparel articles and accessories, knit or crochet), 62 (apparel articles and accessories, not knit etc) and 85 (electric machinery etc, sound equipments, TV equipment, parts) commodity groups' substitute elasticities are large (elastic) and are competitive in the U.S. market compared with those of China. A small value of the elasticity of substitution may be due to an identification problem for a simple standard model as well as measurement errors in prices as a unit value in this study. So, in order to avoid problems such as these, we may need to use appropriate instrumental or proxy variables in the simple standard model, which highly correlate with the independent (unit price) variables and are uncorrelated with measurement error terms. In practice, it is not easy to find good instrumental variables. The final essay evaluates the roles of price and income as important factors that affect Korea's exports by using the most recent monthly data. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach we find the long-run relationship of variables and estimate the long-run price and income elasticities. However, the estimates of these long-run elasticities are statistically insignificant. This may be due to some misspecifications or measurement errors in our model. Meanwhile, due to the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, we construct the Error Correction Model (ECM) in order to observe the short-run dynamics of the elasticities. Specifically, we add a dummy variable into our export demand model to achieve more efficient estimations since the dummy variable reflects a shock in Korea's export; Korea's economic crisis in 1997. In contrast to the long-run elasticity, we find that the short-run elasticities' estimates are more statistically significant. When we use the structure break test to check the structural stability of Korea's export demand, we find that there is no structural break point of 1997. Therefore, a shock of Korea's economic crisis in 1997 might not significantly affect Korea's export demand in a given sample. However, the Information Technology (IT) bubble of the world economy in 2001 and the entry of Korea into the OECD had triggered an increase in Korea's export demand due to existing structural break points of both events. In addition, we find that income elasticities are larger than price elasticities in the short run. This implies that income has more of an impact than that of price for the export demand model in the short run. This also implies that the change of Korea's exports in the short run is more sensitive to changes in foreign income (industrial production) compared with that of price (exchange rate). An interesting result, thus, is that Korea's exports in the short run may have higher export performance on income than that of price (exchange rate). This might be a consequence of the dependence of an increase in foreign income in recent years. In recent years, developing countries have greatly increased their economic growth compared with that of developed countries and Korea's exports have increased into these developing countries. Thus, we confirm that an increase in Korea's exports is mainly affected by income compared with price, specifically in the short run by using recent data.