' š P a g e | 1 P a g e | 2 ' ' 's P a g e | 3 ……………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………… …………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………… P a g e | 4 Master's Thesis Proposal š 's The aim of this work is to evaluate whether or not the common knowledge prompt that the international arena is at fault for most destabilizations of countries with a geopolitical interest is true in this case. 's 's P a g e | 5 ' ' ' Yonghong, D., & Hongchao, L. (2020). Rivalry and Cooperation: A New "Great Game" in SUN, Yun (2012), China's Strategic Misjudgement on Myanmar, in: Journal of Current - P a g e | 6 ' P a g e | 7 on their society's well that prevent the country's consolidation, the P a g e | 8 ' Myanmar as a state has seen its importance rise in the general public's scope because the mass media echoed widely the latest coup by it's own national military: " Myanmar's elected leaders, including de facto head of state Aung San Suu Kyi and members " P a g e | 9 favour their ethnic in detriment of others, and made their power so prominent...

ABSTRACT This research investigates the role played by external actors in contemporary African civil conflicts with specific attention to South Africa’s leading role in addressing Burundi’s intractable civil conflict. The inquiry was guided by looking at SA’s efforts in managing Burundi’s peace process in partnership with key external parties such as the Regional Initiative for peace in Burundi, AU and the UN; and by examining the level of success of SA’s involvement in the peace process and limitations encountered in pursuing diplomatic/political and military efforts aimed at resolving the civil conflict. The theories of conflict resolution and protracted social change, and scholarly and policy literature on intervention were drawn upon to frame the research. The struggle for political power explains the key root cause to Burundi’s civil conflict; rival politicians manipulated ethnicity and the past injustices, which are rooted in colonial policies of divide and rule, as tools in an attempt to accede to power and thereby, gain economic advantage at the expense of others. SA diplomatic efforts played an important role in addressing this by advocating for political and military power sharing. In order to reconcile and manage differences in approaches that were advocated to deal with the Burundi civil conflict, SA mobilized for support in Burundi’s neighbouring countries so as to back a peaceful solution to address the conflict. Further, in an effort to bolster its troops and, therefore, expand operations designed to promote peace in Burundi, SA had to merge into the African Mission in Burundi, and cooperate with the UN in order for the latter to render impetus to the peace process by, providing necessary resources and political support for the Burundi peace mission, and subsequently to assume the mission by taking over from the African mission. Although SA’s troop deployment provided protection for the former Hutu exile politicians and thereby, encouraged them to participate in negotiations and the transitional government, which participation increased chances of success in the peace process, however, SA did not do much in peacekeeping under the UN due to inadequate military equipments; civilians continued to be killed in the presence of SA troops, even though, under the UN their role extended to include civilian protection. To the extent that SA’s intensive diplomatic efforts resulted in the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement for Burundi, however, a number of Burundian parties did not participate in the signing of the agreement and the rebel movements were excluded from the process. Thus, the Arusha peace process failed to attain consensus in addressing Burundi’s contentious issues. Although the UN peacekeepers in Burundi, of which SA was part, had a Chapter VII mandate to enforce the peace of which civilian protection was part of their mission, they did not exercise it. Intervention was constrained by the Burundian government; they argued that the ultimate authority in maintaining security throughout the country rested on them. Moreover, it is difficult if not impossible to observe UN traditional peacekeeping norms while at the same time having to implement the responsibility to protect, which has been occasioned by the post-Cold War world, in which human rights have gained wider recognition, and international norms of sovereignty and nonintervention redefined. Thus, strict observance of the UN traditional peacekeeping norms, inhibit intervention aimed to protect civilians facing catastrophic circumstances or under imminent threat.

The purpose of this quantitative cross-sectional study was to obtain a more accurate diagnosis of the factors that incite terrorism through examining the extent to which independent variables (the Group Grievance Index (GGI), the Legitimate State Index (LSI), and the External Intervention Index (EII)) can predict the dependent variable (the level of global terrorism (GTI)) for the period between 2006-2017. The study included data from the 162 member states of the United Nations, covering 99.7% of the world's population. Game theory and the political process theory provided the theoretical frameworks for the study. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to assess the effect of the interaction on the relation between GGI, SLI, EII, and GTI. The results of the study showed that the relationship between the level of terrorism and the independent variables varies according to the level of terrorism. Interaction between GGI, SLI, and EII was negatively associated with GTI in countries with low GTI risk with an adjusted odds ratio 0.99, but in the countries with a medium and high level of GTI, the relationship was positive, and the adjusted odds ratio was respectively 1.01 and 1.02. The findings benefit international and national security decision-makers by identifying the nature of the relationship between terrorism and the factors affecting it. As well, the importance of considering the interaction between variables that affect terrorism. The results of the study may serve to bring social change within government cultures in the third world when dealing with minorities and grievance groups. Furthermore, it may motivate third world nations to achieve legitimate representation within all social strata and push the international community to reduce interference in the affairs of other sovereign nations.

“That there are no humanitarian solutions to human problems” David Rieff (2002) states.  Proceeding from this argument, perhaps the solutions are compatible with the nature of the factors causing the problem. Thus, it is necessary to understand the dynamics of the factors that caused and exacerbated the crisis. Wars and their political factors are one of the most important causes of humanitarian crises in the current era. So, the thesis presents a dual political and humanitarian vision that aims to understand the humanitarian crisis in a particular region from the background of the intertwining of the international and local relations of the conflict, to discover the impact of these issues on the humanitarian crises.   This thesis uses Al-Hasakah Governorate in northeastern Syria as a case study, focusing on the humanitarian crisis in this region resulting from the autonomy conflict which is represented by the conflict of some Kurdish factions against the Syrian government to obtain autonomy through imposing military control. In that context, the research sheds light on external intervention and the role played by international actors in this conflict. The conclusions indicate how the conflict and its political nature which moved from the local level to the international through external intervention, plus the conflicting geopolitical interests led to the spread of most types of violence, exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, and created challenges for the humanitarian response.

No / The management and incorporation of ethnic identities in Pakistan has historically been far more problematic in Balochistan than other provinces and regions. With the killing in 2006 of Akbar Bugti, a leading political figure who was the head of the Bugti tribe and served as federal minister, chief minister and Governor of Balochistan, the province became politically polarised and has descended into a new cycle of bombings, abductions and murders. The rebellion has resulted in a major security operation pitting the security forces against the Baloch people, attacks against Punjabi settlers and sectarian violence against Hazara Shias that collectively threaten to derail major development projects and increase instability in Pakistan as a whole at a critical juncture. This article examines the insurgency in Balochistan and evaluates various perspectives that have been used to explain the present crisis: external intervention, resistance to social change, resource driven conflict theory, transnationalism and diaspora, and failure to manage difference. After examining the evidence it concludes by arguing that the primary cause for the insurgency in Pakistan is due to poor management of difference.

This master’s thesis studies the European Union’s (EU) foreign policy in the Eastern Partnership before and after the EU Global Strategy (EUGS) and investigates whether or not there has been a policy shift towards the paradigm of resilience. Previous research disagrees on the implications of the EUGS and I argue that more empirical research on the matter is needed. The purpose of this thesis is thus to empirically investigate whether or not a shift in EU foreign policy towards a paradigm of resilience has indeed taken place in practice after the launch of the EUGS. Two sources of data are used in the study: the first and principal are the annual action programmes for the Eastern Partnership used by the EU for planning and delivering of external assistance; the second is a set of semi-structured elite interviews conducted with respondents representing the Eastern Partnership and the EU respectively. The results are mixed, showing a slight trend towards resilience-building but no ground-breaking paradigm shift has occurred. I argue that the resilience-building focus and principled pragmatism approach presented by the EUGS rather should be seen as an attempt by the EU to be honest with the foreign policy it is already conducting.

This thesis is a theoretical and empirical inquiry into ‘deliberative peacebuilding’, seeking to explain the ‘failures’ and ‘successes’ of peacebuilding in East Timor and Somaliland. While warfare has increased globally since the end of the Cold War, the UN has made efforts to build peace (e.g. Boutros-Ghali 1992). While peacebuilding has become an internationally applied set of ideas and practices, one of the theoretical gaps is deliberation. This research thus conceptualises ‘deliberative peacebuilding’, and associates this with peacebuilding in the non-Western, post-colonial, and (post-)conflict context. This research identified East Timor and Somaliland as its case studies. Despite similarity in the ‘legitimation problem’ with vertical (state-society) and horizontal (‘modernity’-‘tradition’) inequalities/differences based upon cultural and historical backgrounds, East Timor and Somaliland undertook different approaches in a decade after the end of their civil wars. While East Timor accepted UN peace operations, Somaliland rejected them. Yet both experienced similar transitions to make political order between ‘failure’ (political de-legitimation/societal dissent) and ‘success’ (political legitimation/societal consent).Accordingly, this thesis poses two questions: 1) what caused the UN to have ‘failed’ (to prevent the ‘crisis’ from recurring in 2006) in East Timor, and 2) what caused East Timor and Somaliland to have experienced ‘equifinality’ (making similar progress along different paths) in building peace (in East Timor from 1999 to 2012 and in Somaliland from 1991 to 2005). Findings, among others, include different paths in transition: a ‘hybrid’ path with external intervention in East Timor and an ‘agonistic’ path without it in Somaliland. Asymmetry in power relations urged deliberative agencies to address the ‘legitimation problem’ differently.

This thesis focus on the UN-led peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) and how the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has undertaken this in its resolutions. The importance to study this subject and statebuilding efforts, such as MINUSMA, is due to that a failed statebuilding may result in potential international consequences. This is the case in Mali where terror- and criminal organizations now roam free in large parts of the country where these organizations may plan their operations, including international terror attacks. Therefore, this study will research how the UNSC has positioned itself regarding the potential explanations to the outcomes of statebuilding, the statebuilder´s dilemma, and dividing structures. To conduct the analysis of the resolutions, a qualitative document analysis has been conducted. For understanding the context in Mali and the aftermath of the resolutions, secondary data analysis has been used. The conclusions for this thesis are that the UNSC has taken a middle way in the context of the statebuilder´s dilemma and dividing structures, but that the UNSC also shows a great loyalty towards the Malian state and not vice versa as the dilemma debates. The objective is to shine a light on the UN peacekeeping missions in an attempt to influence how they are carried out since improvement is needed.

I have been puzzled over understanding the relationship between political institutional arrangements, ethnically divided societies, and conflict for some time. I have also wondered about the relationship between the characteristics of power-sharing political institutions, ethnicity, transborder ethnic kin (TEK), and ethnic conflict, i.e., why countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Cyprus, Ethiopia, Sudan, Libya, the former Soviet countries, and other nations experience civil conflict and unstable political systems while others do not. It has always fascinated me how specific power-sharing arrangements can sometimes bring peace and stability, but in other cases do not. For example, the minority ethnic Russians in Ukraine engaged in ethnic conflict and secessionism, and this process appears to have been affected by the presence of a TEK state (Russia). At the same time, ethnically, Russian groups in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which also share the same TEK state have not engaged in secession. The Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, Albanians in the former Yugoslavia, and Armenians in Azerbaijan are involved in significant fighting with active support from their TEK groups. What explains these variations in ethnic civil conflict among these groups, and under what conditions are groups with TEK more likely to experience ethnic conflict?

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