This dissertation aims to reclassify municipal structures of the U.S. municipalities and investigates the effect of municipal structures on government fiscal management outcomes, including fiscal conditions and fiscal slack balances. This dissertation is comprised of four chapters. The first chapter briefly introduces, and each of the remaining three is an independent research article. The second chapter investigates seven essential structural characteristics of the U.S. municipalities and constructs a municipal structure political-administrative index. It then examines the determinants of municipal structures on a political-administrative dimension. The empirical results show that municipal structure choices are statistically significantly associated with citizens’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Citizens’ income levels play a crucial role in determining municipal structure changes during the sample period. The third chapter examines the effect of municipal structures on government fiscal conditions. Municipal structure is operationalized by the municipal structure political-administrative index, which is the focus of the second chapter. There are a variety of mechanisms through which municipal structures can influence government fiscal conditions, among which managerial professionalism, strategy stance, and managerial accountability versus efficiency are theoretically addressed. Empirical evidence shows that a municipal structure that is more administrative is associated with healthier fiscal conditions in cash solvency, dependence on intergovernmental transfers, and debt level. Particularly, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the municipal structure index and governments’ fiscal conditions. Moreover, municipal structures moderate the influence of external environmental factors. The fourth chapter investigates the determinants of local government’s fiscal slack in a political-budgetary-managerial framework. The research argues that voters’ preferences, government’s budgetary performance, and government internal management work interactively to influence government fiscal slack, and it proposes appropriate indicators for the three explanatory dimensions. Particularly, government internal management is operationalized by the municipal structure political-administrative index. Empirical results show that voters’ anti-tax and pro-spending sentiment have a negative effect on the size of government fiscal slack, and government’s budgetary performance exerts a positive impact. Moreover, government internal management modifies the effects of voters’ preferences and government’ budgetary performance on government fiscal slack.

WHY SHOULD TURKEY CONTINUE WITH STRONG FISCAL ADJUSTEMENT? LESSONS DERIVED FROM THE PAST AgAR PASLI, Mediha M.S., Department of Economics Supervisor: Associate Prof. Dr. Nadir &Ouml / CAL November 2006, 87 pages Turkey managed to produce a strong fiscal adjustment during the period of 1999-2005 with the annual average of close to 5 percent. Moreover, with the help of this tight fiscal stance, Turkey&rsquo / s public debt has been reduced from the peak of 90.5 percent of GNP in 2001 to 55.8 percent in 2005. Although this is a major achievement both in terms of the size and the speed, the challenge for Turkey is now to continue with fiscal adjustment in order to further reduce its public debt level which still poses a sizeable vulnerability risk for the economy. Therefore, in order to provide an answer to the sustainability question, this thesis first aims to (i) measure the fiscal adjustment in Turkey at the general government level during 1999-2005 period, (ii) analyze sources of fiscal adjustment based on the economic classification, institutional breakdown, and cyclical and structural components. After understanding size and sources of adjustment, the reduction in public debt will be decomposed into its parts including the contribution come from primary surplus. This will shed light on whether Turkey could still rely on those factors for further reduction in public debt in the future.

Univ., Diss.--Budapest, 2007. / Literaturangaben.

Submitted by Automa??o e Estat?stica (sst@bczm.ufrn.br) on 2017-11-22T20:29:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 JohnatanRafaelSantanaDeBrito_TESE.pdf: 6965053 bytes, checksum: b36784a50b940bb3f9d85ae77154b541 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Arlan Eloi Leite Silva (eloihistoriador@yahoo.com.br) on 2017-11-23T21:38:04Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 JohnatanRafaelSantanaDeBrito_TESE.pdf: 6965053 bytes, checksum: b36784a50b940bb3f9d85ae77154b541 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-23T21:38:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 JohnatanRafaelSantanaDeBrito_TESE.pdf: 6965053 bytes, checksum: b36784a50b940bb3f9d85ae77154b541 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-21 / A estrutura fiscal-federativa brasileira apresenta algumas peculiaridades que a torna distinta, sobretudo no que diz respeito ?s compet?ncias relativas aos governos locais. O modelo de transfer?ncias e a ocorr?ncia de fen?menos tais como o flypaper effect e a ilus?o fiscal, lan?am quest?es acerca do comportamento da gest?o fiscal dos munic?pios brasileiros. O car?ter aut?nomo dessas esferas de governo ? questionado do ponto de vista or?ament?rio, tendo em vista a depend?ncia existente dos recursos oriundo de transfer?ncias, tanto verticais como horizontais. Al?m disso, o car?ter descentralizado do modelo acentua o n?vel de desequil?brio fiscal nos munic?pios, gerando d?vidas quanto a efetividade fiscal desses entes. Diante desse contexto, questiona-se qual o padr?o funcional do comportamento fiscal derivado da estrutura organizacional do federalismo fiscal brasileiro. O objetivo desta tese ? apresentar uma an?lise acerca do modelo fiscal-federativo brasileiro ? luz da perspectiva dos munic?pios, considerando a autonomia or?ament?ria e o desequil?brio fiscal efetivo, de maneira a compreender as diferen?as no que diz respeito aos n?veis de efetividade fiscal obtido pelos governos locais e assim observar qual o padr?o da gest?o fiscal dos munic?pios em face ? estrutura do modelo brasileiro. A hip?tese levantada ? que os aspectos intr?nsecos ao modelo fiscal-federativo praticado no Brasil, tais como o sistema de transfer?ncias e o flypaper effect, n?o apenas afetam a gest?o fiscal dos munic?pios como s?o fatores preponderantes para o funcionamento do pr?prio modelo, gerando, por consequ?ncia, um padr?o de comportamento quase compuls?rio e pouco aut?nomo. Para observar essas quest?es, foi constru?do um Coeficiente que desempenha a fun??o de par?metro gerencial para identificar do n?vel de efetividade fiscal da menor esfera de governo (Coeficiente de Efetividade Fiscal dos Munic?pios ? CEFM), sendo este uma proxy anal?tica da estrutura do federalismo fiscal brasileiro. Al?m das vari?veis or?ament?rias, considerou-se algumas caracter?sticas socioecon?micas dos munic?pios a aplicou-se uma an?lise de cluster afim de agrup?-los em fun??o de suas semelhan?as e assim poder observar, posteriormente, as mudan?as nos agrupamentos ocasionadas pela inclus?o do par?metro fiscal. Como resultados, verificou-se a ocorr?ncia de n?veis distintos de efetividade fiscal dos munic?pios e a verifica??o do referido padr?o de comportamento ao qual os munic?pios se enquadram em fun??o dos aspectos que o modelo fiscal-federativo imp?e a estes. / The Brazilian fiscal-federative structure presents some peculiarities that make it distinct, especially with regard to the competences related to local governments. The transfer model and the occurrence of the flypaper effect and fiscal illusion raise questions about the fiscal management behavior of Brazilian municipalities. The autonomous nature of these spheres of government is questioned from a budgetary perspective, given the existing reliance on resources from both vertical and horizontal transfers. In addition, the decentralized nature of the model accentuates the level of fiscal imbalance in the municipalities, generating doubts as to the fiscal effectiveness of these entities. Given this context, the research question is: what is the functional pattern of fiscal behavior derived from the organizational structure of Brazilian fiscal federalism. The purpose of this thesis is to present an analysis of the Brazilian fiscal-federative model in the light of the municipalities' perspective, considering the budgetary autonomy and the effective fiscal imbalance, in order to understand the differences in the levels of fiscal effectiveness obtained by the governments localities and thus to observe the standard of the fiscal management of the municipalities in face of the structure of the Brazilian model. The hypothesis raised is that the aspects intrinsic to the fiscal-federative model practiced in Brazil, such as the transfer system and the flypaper effect, not only affect the fiscal management of the municipalities, but are also preponderant factors for the functioning of the model itself, consequence, a pattern of almost compulsory and not autonomous behavior. In order to observe these questions, a Coefficient was constructed that performs the function of managerial parameter to identify the level of fiscal effectiveness of the smallest sphere of government (Fiscal Effectiveness Coefficient of municipalities - CEFM), which is an analytical proxy of the structure of Brazilian fiscal federalism. In addition to the budgetary variables, we considered some socioeconomic characteristics of the municipalities, a cluster analysis was applied in order to group them according to their similarities and thus to be able to later observe the changes in the clusters caused by the inclusion of the fiscal parameter. As results, it was verified the occurrence of distinct levels of fiscal effectiveness of the municipalities and the verification of the mentioned pattern of behavior to which the municipalities are classified according to the aspects that the fiscal-federative model imposes on them.

A concessão de incentivos tributários tem sido uma política fiscal recorrente de diferentes entes estatais para atrair investimentos, gerar empregos ou mesmo desenvolver uma região específica. Apesar de controversa a aplicação da política de incentivo fiscal como geração do desenvolvimento econômico, é possível identificar na literatura casos bem sucedidos de desenvolvimento regional baseado na aplicação de incentivos fiscais para a atração de investimentos. O Estado do Rio Grande do Sul também recorreu a uma política de incentivos fiscais para a atração de investimento e desenvolvimento da indústria local e, ainda hoje, há traços claros dessa política em sua legislação. Dentro dessa política destaca-se a renúncia fiscal do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no setor de máquinas e equipamentos agrícolas. O propósito desse trabalho foi analisar a relevância desse incentivo fiscal para as indústrias do setor de máquinas e equipamentos agrícolas instaladas no Estado, no período de 1970 a 2008, demonstrando que esse ramo de atividade também é dependente de outros fatores para o seu desenvolvimento, como o preço das commodities, linhas de financiamento, mão de obra especializada etc., e correlacionados com a capacidade de geração de empregos dentro do Estado, capacidade de promover o desenvolvimento regional, capacidade de gerar valor agregado dentro do Estado e, não menos importante, capacidade de fixação dessa indústria dentro do Estado diante da concorrência de outros Estados da federação que, também, oferecem incentivos tributários similares. / Tax incentives have been used for different levels of public entities to attract investments, generate jobs or develop a specific region. Although there is diverging opinion about the benefits generated through of the application of tax incentive to promote economic development, is possible to identify successful cases of regional development based on tax incentive to attract investments. The State of Rio Grande do Sul, also applied tax incentives to attract investment and to develop local industry. Most part of these tax incentives policies is valid in current day. Among these policies of the Rio Grande do Sul State there is the specific tax incentive to the sector of agricultural machinery and equipment. The purpose of this study, was analyzed the relevance of this tax incentive for industry of agricultural machinery and equipments located in the State between 1970 and 2008, showing this activity is also dependent on other factors for the development as commodity prices, lines of credit, specialized labor etc., and correlated with job generation in the State, capacity to promote regional development, generate added value within the State, and fixed the industry in the State although the other States offer similar tax incentives.

Submitted by Eduardo Pavinato Olimpio (epolimpio@gmail.com) on 2015-02-11T11:13:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Eduardo_Pavinato_Olimpio_v2.pdf: 909989 bytes, checksum: 77a7740bfe398788f777f020fb78522c (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Eduardo, Seu trabalho foi rejeitado, pois você deve aguardar o recebimento da ficha catalográfica, que será enviada pela biblioteca. Encaminhei um e-mail com divergências na formatação para que você corrija e quando você receber a ficha catalográfica, deverá fazer a nova submissão de seu trabalho. Peço verificar todo o conteúdo, pois constam páginas em branco (ex: página 28, 48, 58...) com isso você deve corrigir também o seu sumário. Att Renata. on 2015-02-11T15:41:54Z (GMT) / Submitted by Eduardo Pavinato Olimpio (epolimpio@gmail.com) on 2015-02-12T22:39:58Z No. of bitstreams: 2 teseconsolidada.pdf: 888609 bytes, checksum: 707b8184fbf6bf378198a5f1c1d3f9ab (MD5) teseconsolidada.pdf: 888609 bytes, checksum: 707b8184fbf6bf378198a5f1c1d3f9ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2015-02-12T22:49:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 teseconsolidada.pdf: 888609 bytes, checksum: 707b8184fbf6bf378198a5f1c1d3f9ab (MD5) teseconsolidada.pdf: 888609 bytes, checksum: 707b8184fbf6bf378198a5f1c1d3f9ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-02-13T12:34:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 teseconsolidada.pdf: 888609 bytes, checksum: 707b8184fbf6bf378198a5f1c1d3f9ab (MD5) teseconsolidada.pdf: 888609 bytes, checksum: 707b8184fbf6bf378198a5f1c1d3f9ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-01-12 / Neste trabalho apresentamos um modelo DSGE de pequena escala com economia fechada para estudar os efeitos de um aumento do crédito subsidiado e de uma política fiscal expansionista sobre as decisões de política monetária. O modelo, construído com base na literatura nacional e internacional, é constituído por uma economia fechada, com formação de hábito dos consumidores, firmas atuando em um mercado de competição monopolística (NEISS; NELSON, 2003) e rigidez de preços a la Calvo (CHRISTIANO; EICHENBAUM; EVANS, 2005). O governo é inserido no modelo através da autoridade monetária, que segue a Regra de Taylor definida por Vasconcelos e Divino (2012), e através da autoridade fiscal, que segue uma meta de superávit primário como em Castro et al. (2011). Por fim, o volume de investimento financiado por crédito subsidiado e a taxa deste crédito são definidos exogenamente pela autoridade fiscal, afetando sua restrição orçamentária. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a política fiscal expansionista é mais importante que o aumento do subsídio ao crédito para o aumento da taxa de juros real neutra. Estes efeitos, porém, explicam pouco da variância das variáveis macroeconômicas quando comparados aos choques de demanda e de produtividade. Além disso, o modelo mostra evidências de um caráter inflacionário recente da política monetária no Brasil. / In this work we present a small-scale DSGE model with closed economy in order to study the monetary effects caused by an increase of the subsidized credit and an expansionary fiscal policy. The model is developed over several works on the Brazilian and international literature is based on a simple model of a closed economy with households consumption habit formation and firms acting in a monopolistic competitive maket (NEISS; NELSON, 2003) and Calvo price rigidities (CHRISTIANO; EICHENBAUM; EVANS, 2005). The government is inserted through a monetary rule defined by Vasconcelos e Divino (2012) and through the fiscal authority via a primary surplus rule as in Castro et al. (2011). Finally, the amount of investment financed with subsidized credit and its interest are exogenously defined by the fiscal authority, affecting its budget constraint. Our results suggest that an expansionary political is more important than the increase of the credit subsidy in their effects on the neutral real interest rate. However, these effects have less relevance on the variance of the macroeconomic variables when compared to the effects of a demand or technology shocks. Moreover, the model evidences the inflacionary character of the recent monetary policy in Brazil.

Este trabalho analisa se entre 2011 e 2016 a economia brasileira operou sob um regime de dominância fiscal ou de dominância monetária. Considerando que cada um destes regimes implica ações diametralmente opostas para a política econômica, a identificação de qual regime está em vigor é de fundamental importância para as autoridades fiscal e monetária. Para realizar esta avaliação, foram testados quatro modelos distintos, cada qual com uma estrutura particular que objetiva identificar sob qual regime a economia está operando. De modo geral, os resultados apontaram que durante o período de interesse predominou o regime de dominância monetária. Contudo, há sinais de que em determinados momentos a economia se encontrou próxima um regime de dominância fiscal, algo que implica em alterações na importância das políticas fiscal e monetária para o equilíbrio da economia. / This paper analyzes if between 2011 and 2016 the Brazilian economy operated under a regime of fiscal dominance or monetary dominance. Considering that each of these regimes implies diametrically opposed actions for the economic policy, the identification of which regime is in force is of fundamental importance for the fiscal and monetary authorities. In order to carry out this evaluation, four distinct models were tested, each one with a particular structure that aims to identify under which regime the economy is operating. In general, the results pointed out that during the period of interest the regime of monetary dominance prevailed. However, there are signs that at certain times the economy has found itself close to a regime of fiscal dominance, something that implies changes in the importance of fiscal and monetary policies for the equilibrium of the economy.

A concessão de incentivos tributários tem sido uma política fiscal recorrente de diferentes entes estatais para atrair investimentos, gerar empregos ou mesmo desenvolver uma região específica. Apesar de controversa a aplicação da política de incentivo fiscal como geração do desenvolvimento econômico, é possível identificar na literatura casos bem sucedidos de desenvolvimento regional baseado na aplicação de incentivos fiscais para a atração de investimentos. O Estado do Rio Grande do Sul também recorreu a uma política de incentivos fiscais para a atração de investimento e desenvolvimento da indústria local e, ainda hoje, há traços claros dessa política em sua legislação. Dentro dessa política destaca-se a renúncia fiscal do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul no setor de máquinas e equipamentos agrícolas. O propósito desse trabalho foi analisar a relevância desse incentivo fiscal para as indústrias do setor de máquinas e equipamentos agrícolas instaladas no Estado, no período de 1970 a 2008, demonstrando que esse ramo de atividade também é dependente de outros fatores para o seu desenvolvimento, como o preço das commodities, linhas de financiamento, mão de obra especializada etc., e correlacionados com a capacidade de geração de empregos dentro do Estado, capacidade de promover o desenvolvimento regional, capacidade de gerar valor agregado dentro do Estado e, não menos importante, capacidade de fixação dessa indústria dentro do Estado diante da concorrência de outros Estados da federação que, também, oferecem incentivos tributários similares. / Tax incentives have been used for different levels of public entities to attract investments, generate jobs or develop a specific region. Although there is diverging opinion about the benefits generated through of the application of tax incentive to promote economic development, is possible to identify successful cases of regional development based on tax incentive to attract investments. The State of Rio Grande do Sul, also applied tax incentives to attract investment and to develop local industry. Most part of these tax incentives policies is valid in current day. Among these policies of the Rio Grande do Sul State there is the specific tax incentive to the sector of agricultural machinery and equipment. The purpose of this study, was analyzed the relevance of this tax incentive for industry of agricultural machinery and equipments located in the State between 1970 and 2008, showing this activity is also dependent on other factors for the development as commodity prices, lines of credit, specialized labor etc., and correlated with job generation in the State, capacity to promote regional development, generate added value within the State, and fixed the industry in the State although the other States offer similar tax incentives.

Este trabalho analisa se entre 2011 e 2016 a economia brasileira operou sob um regime de dominância fiscal ou de dominância monetária. Considerando que cada um destes regimes implica ações diametralmente opostas para a política econômica, a identificação de qual regime está em vigor é de fundamental importância para as autoridades fiscal e monetária. Para realizar esta avaliação, foram testados quatro modelos distintos, cada qual com uma estrutura particular que objetiva identificar sob qual regime a economia está operando. De modo geral, os resultados apontaram que durante o período de interesse predominou o regime de dominância monetária. Contudo, há sinais de que em determinados momentos a economia se encontrou próxima um regime de dominância fiscal, algo que implica em alterações na importância das políticas fiscal e monetária para o equilíbrio da economia. / This paper analyzes if between 2011 and 2016 the Brazilian economy operated under a regime of fiscal dominance or monetary dominance. Considering that each of these regimes implies diametrically opposed actions for the economic policy, the identification of which regime is in force is of fundamental importance for the fiscal and monetary authorities. In order to carry out this evaluation, four distinct models were tested, each one with a particular structure that aims to identify under which regime the economy is operating. In general, the results pointed out that during the period of interest the regime of monetary dominance prevailed. However, there are signs that at certain times the economy has found itself close to a regime of fiscal dominance, something that implies changes in the importance of fiscal and monetary policies for the equilibrium of the economy.

The current fiscal policy does not differentiate capital expenditure from current expenditure. Since the global deficit target is fixed according to the present fiscal policy rule, the non financial expenditure becomes pro cyclical, and the public investment is adjusted to meet the targeted deficit. As a result, the public investment has dramatically decreased which, in turn, has affected the international competitiveness and the economic and social development of the Peruvian society. This paper proposes: 1) change the public expenditure policy public investment by eliminating its pro cyclical bias; and 2) redefining the system of fiscal accounting. To meet this purposes the budget must be divided in two parts: the current budget with a saving or primary surplus target, and the investment expenditure based on a rule of directing the public debt only to finance this kind of expenditure over the economic cycle. This is the so called Public Investment Golden Rule. To this Golden Rule is added other according to which the ratio of public net debt must be sustainable during the economic cycle. Finally, it’s proposed to adopting the new IMF accounting system. The Golden Rule becomes pretty velar in the context of this new system. When the operational result becomes equal to cero, the net investment becomes equal to the public debt. Hence, the null operational result according to the new accounting system is the only one which is consistent with the Golden Rule. / La actual política fiscal no diferencia los gastos de capital de los gastos corrientes. La regla vigente de fijación de metas globales de déficit convierte al gasto no financiero en una variable procíclica, y la inversión pública es la que se ajusta para cumplir las metas de déficit. Esta política fiscal procíclica ha reducido la inversión pública a niveles mínimos sin precedentes históricos, conspirando así contra el desarrollo y la competitividad del país. En este trabajo se propone: 1) cambiar la política de gasto, eliminando el sesgo procíclico de la inversión pública; y 2) rediseñar la contabilidad fiscal. Para ello el presupuesto público debe dividirse en dos partes: uno de gasto corriente, con una meta de ahorro o de superávit primario corriente anual, y otro de gasto de inversión basado en una regla de destinar el endeudamiento, a lo largo del ciclo económico, a financiar solo el gasto de inversión y no el gasto corriente. Esta es la Regla de Oro de la Inversión pública. A esta regla se le adiciona otra según la cual la deuda neta del gobierno como porcentaje del PBI debe mantenerse, durante el ciclo económico, en un nivel sostenible. Asimismo, se plantea rediseñar la contabilidad fiscal sobre la base del nuevo sistema de contabilidad del FMI. Con este sistema, la Regla de Oro se hace aún más comprensible: cuando el resultado operativo es igual a cero, la inversión neta sería exactamente igual al endeudamiento. Por tanto, el único resultado coherente con la Regla de Oro en esta nueva contabilidad es que el ahorro corriente o resultado operativo sea nulo sobre el ciclo económico.