This study uses a simple univariate regression model to assess the cyclicality of fiscal policy, based on government expenditure, in South Africa since 1994. The model suggests that that total government expenditure is highly procyclical, indicating that government spending responds positively to economic growth. The results from similar regression focusing on components of government spending suggests that only capital spending (economic classification) and general services (functional classification) are countercyclical, while other classifications are more procyclical in line with total government spending. The procyclicality of expenditure components such as compensation of employees, goods and services and all functional classification is in line with government’s decisions to reduce taxes in order to boost economic activities during periods of recessions, coupled with South Africa’s high public wage bill. The countercyclicality of capital spending is attributed to government's view on prioritising capital projects during periods of recession, in line with the Keynesian theory. Results of procyclicality confirm most of other empirical findings on South Africa’s fiscal policy. However, this suggests that the procyclicality of South Africa’s government expenditure plays only a small role in demand management and therefore stabilising aggregate demand or economic fluctuations. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Thesis: M.S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1975 / Bibliography: leaves 79-80. / by Richard Joseph Boyland, Jr. / M.S. / M.S. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management

Yes / This paper develops and estimates a new-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the analysis of fiscal policy in the UK. We find that government consumption and investment yield the highest GDP multipliers in the short-run, whereas capital income tax and public investment have dominating effect on GDP in the long-run. When nominal interest rate is at the zero lower bound, consumption taxes and public consumption and investment are found to be the most effective fiscal instruments throughout the analysed horizon, and capital and labour income taxes are established to be the least effective. The paper also shows that the effectiveness of fiscal policy decreases in a small open-economy scenario and that nominal rigidities improve effectiveness of public spending and consumption taxes, whereas decrease that of income taxes.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Wollongong, 2009. / Typescript. Includes bibliographical references: leaf 172-197.

Zugl.: Sheffield, University, Diss., 2005.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2005. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 146-159).

Thesis (Ph. D.)--UCLA, 2009. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 166-171).

This thesis contributes to the public finance literature concerned with fiscal sustainability, and consists of an introduction and four stand-alone essays. The first three essays analyse the reasons why governments accumulate large levels of debt. In the first essay, I find that parties that implement fiscal consolidations are punished by the voters in the following election. However, there does not appear to be a rewarding effect for governments that implement fiscal expansions. The second essay, which is co-authored with Rafael Ahlskog, shows how voter opposition to fiscal consolidation is shaped by moral considerations and feelings of personal responsibility. More precisely, we argue that voters are more likely to refuse fiscal consolidation when they do not feel responsible for the public debt. The third essay argues that misperceptions about the business cycle would have caused fiscal problems even if policy-making was conducted by independent experts. According to my estimates, biased projections have weakened annual budget balances by approximately one per cent of GDP. In the fourth essay, I argue that budgetary mechanisms created to improve fiscal discipline have a bias toward a reduced public sector. Because discretionary decisions are usually required to adjust public expenditures to price and wage increases, periods of rapid growth have repeatedly caused the welfare state to shrink. I use the introduction to discuss the commonalities between the essays and to situate the field of public finance in a broader, historical context.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation explores the potential of centralised, top-down procedural rules (also known as budget-process rules) and independent fiscal councils to complement numerical fiscal rules as devices for preventing fiscal profligacy. To this end, it studies the connections between fiscal policymaking frameworks and fiscal outcomes in fourteen European Union countries in the years from 1998 to 2004. The fiscal policymaking frameworks of these countries contained various configurations of numerical rules, procedural rules and fiscal councils, and the study uses differences in the degrees to which the countries complied with the supranational rules of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) as a measure of the efficacy of these configurations at preventing fiscal profligacy. The analysis itself consists of two parts. The first part – a cross-sectional analysis of all fourteen countries – uses a set-theoretic technique known as fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to identify connections between various configurations of the elements of fiscal policymaking frameworks and the degrees to which the countries complied with the SGP rules. These connections are interpreted in terms of sufficiency and necessity and used to identify pathways to consistent compliance with the SGP rules. The second part of the analysis consists of case studies of three of the fourteen countries (Finland, France and Ireland). The case studies are used to verify aspects of the set-theoretic analysis, namely the specification of the set-theoretic model (especially the influence of the preferences of policymakers on compliance with the SGP rules), the accuracy of the quantitative measures of the efficacy of elements of fiscal policymaking frameworks, the explanatory value of the solution pathways and the country-level relevance of two hypotheses derived from the results of the analysis. The set-theoretic analysis finds some evidence of the efficacy of fiscal policymaking frameworks consisting of combinations of numerical rules, procedural rules and fiscal councils, but establishes that such multifaceted frameworks were neither necessary nor sufficient for preventing fiscal profligacy. The study also shows, in tentative fashion in the set-theoretic analysis and more forcefully in the case studies, that the preferences of policymakers were critical determinants of the effectiveness of all types of fiscal policymaking frameworks. Hence, it concludes that the potential of multifaceted fiscal policymaking frameworks should not be exaggerated. In addition, it argues that an unwavering commitment to fiscal prudence complemented by policymaking framework elements chosen to overcome specific incentive distortions is a more promising approach for preventing fiscal profligacy than such multifaceted frameworks per se. More generally, the findings of the study confirm the scope for using fsQCA and other case-oriented methods to complement regression-based analyses of the effectiveness of fiscal policymaking frameworks. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek die potensiaal van gesentraliseerde, bo-na-onder begrotingsprosesreëls en onafhanklike fiskale rade om numeriese reëls aan te vul as meganismes om fiskale spandabelrigheid te verhinder. Met hierdie doel voor oë bestudeer dit die verbande tussen fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke en fiskale uitkomste in veertien lidlande van die Europese Unie in die jare van 1998 tot 2004. Die fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke van hierdie lande het verskeie konfigurasies van numeriese reëls, begrotingsprosesreëls en fiskale rade bevat, en die studie gebruik verskille in die mate waartoe die lande die bonasionale reëls van die Stabiliteits- en Groeiverdrag (“Stability and Growth Pact”, oftewel SGP) nagekom het as ‘n maatstaf van hierdie konfigurasies se doelmatigheid met betrekking tot die verhindering van fiskale spandabelrigheid. Die ontleding self bestaan uit twee dele. Die eerste deel – ‘n kruissnitontleding van al veertien lande – gebruik ‘n versamelingsteoretiese tegniek was as “fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis” (fsQCA) bekend staan om verbande te identifiseer tussen verskillende konfigurasies van die elemente van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke en die mate waartoe die lande die SGP-reëls nagekom het. Hierdie verbande word aan die hand van genoegsaamheid en noodsaaklikheid geïnterpreteer en gebruik om roetes na nakoming van die SGP-reëls te identifiseer. Die tweede deel van die ontleding bestaan uit gevallestudies van drie van die veertien lande (Finland, Frankryk en Ierland). Die gevallestudies word gebruik om aspekte van die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding te toets, naamlik die spesifikasie van die versamelingsteoretiese model (veral die invloed van die voorkeure van beleidmakers op nakoming van die SGP-reëls), die akkuraatheid van die kwantitatiewe maatstawwe van die doelmatigheid van elemente van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke, die verklarende waarde van die oplossingsroetes asook die tersaaklikheid vir individuele lande van twee hipoteses wat uit die resultate van die ontleding voortvloei. Die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding vind aanduidings van die doelmatigheid van fiskale beleidsraamwerke wat kombinasies van numeriese reëls, begrotingsprosesreëls en fiskale rade bevat, maar stel vas dat sulke saamgestelde raamwerke nóg noodsaaklik nóg genoegsaam vir die verhindering van fiskale spandabelrigheid was. Die studie toon ook, op tentatiewe wyse in die versamelingsteoretiese ontleding en meer oortuigend in die gevallestudies, dat die voorkeure van beleidmakers deurslaggewende bepalers van die doelmatigheid van alle tipes beleidmakingsraamwerke was. Dit kom dus tot die gevolgtrekking dat die potensiaal van saamgestelde fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke nie oordryf moet word nie. Voorts voer dit aan dat ‘n onwrikbare verbintenis tot fiskale dissipline, aangevul deur elemente van beleidsmakingsraamwerke wat gekies is om spesifieke verwringings van aansporings te bowe te kom, groter belofte inhou as ‘n benadering om fiskale spandabelrigheid te verhinder as sulke saamgestelde raamwerke per se. Op ‘n breër vlak bevestig die studie dat daar heelwat ruimte bestaan om fsQCA en ander metodes wat op gevalle konsentreer, te gebruik om regressie-ontledings van die doelmatigheid van fiskale beleidmakingsraamwerke aan te vul.

This thesis studies the relative roles of monetary and fiscal policies to achieve the basic macroeconomic objectives of stable prices with sustainable growth in Pakistan. Using data from December 1981 till June 2008, the changes in the monetary policy stance are shown to be capable of affecting the domestic price level and output growth. This thesis also tests the fiscal theory of price determination using quarterly data for the sample period 1977q1-2009q4, by investigating the relationship between the fiscal deficit, debt accumulation and inflation dynamics. The estimates reveal that there exists a fiscal dominant regime for most of the sample period since the fiscal authority is insensitive to monetary policy in the sense that neither taxes nor expenditure react (now or in the future) to the changes in the stock of outstanding government debt. It is also found that changes in the primary deficit exert an effect on aggregate demand which is also evidence of an active fiscal policy regime. This study also explores the indirect channels of fiscal regime by including a monetary, real sector, exchange rate and the consolidated budget deficit variables in three different specifications of vector error correction models and finds the monetary and fiscal variables as the key determinants of inflation in Pakistan. It also suggests a positive and significant relationship between the budget deficit and seigniorage revenues, confirming the monetisation of the fiscal deficit and indirect evidence of the fiscal dominance in the economy. In addition, this thesis employs a SVAR specification of exogenous fiscal policy shocks to observe the relative effectiveness of fiscal multipliers and finds their significant role to affect inflation and output in the economy. Finally this study develops and estimates a small macro-econometric model and then it is used to assess the relative performance of the monetary and fiscal policies in Pakistan. Policy simulations suggest that if Pakistan follows a rule based regime then macroeconomic stability can be improved in terms of the stability of output and inflation.