It is increasingly recognized that banks might not be pricing adequately climate risks in the value of their loans contracts. This represents a barrier to scale up the green investments needed to align the economy to sustainability and to preserve financial stability. To overcome this barrier, climate-aligned policies, such as a revision of the microprudential banking framework (for example a Green Supporting Factor (GSF )), and the introduction of stable green fiscal policies (for example a Carbon Tax (CT )), have been advocated. However, understanding the conditions under which a GSF or a CT could represent an opportunity for scaling up green investments, while preventing trade-offs on risk for financial stability, is still insufficient. We contribute to fill this knowledge gap threefold. First, we analyse the risk transmission channels from climate-aligned policies, a GSF and a CT, to the credit market and the real economy via loans contracts. Second, we assess the reinforcing feedbacks leading to cascading macro-financial shocks. Third, we consider how banks could react to the policies, i.e., their climate sentiments. In this regard, we embed for the first- time banks climate sentiments, modelled as a non-linear adaptive forecasting function into a Stock-Flow Consistent model that represents agents and sectors of the real economy and the credit market as a network of interconnected balance sheets. Our results suggest that the GSF is not sufficient to effectively scale up green investments via a change in lending conditions to green firms. In contrast, the CT could shift the bank's loans and the green/brown firms' investments towards the green sector. Nevertheless, it could imply short-term negative transition effects on GDP growth and financial stability, according to how the policy is implemented. Finally, our results show that bank's anticipation of a climate-aligned policy, through stronger climate sentiments, could smooth the risk for financial stability and foster green investments. Thus, our results contribute to understand the conditions for the onset and the mitigation of climate-related financial risks and opportunities. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

This dissertation consists of four empirical papers analysing and discussing central bank policies in the post-crisis period. After the global financial crisis central bankers and other regulators have faced many new challenges, including a prolonged period of acommodative monetary policy, side effects of monetary policy easing on financial stability and interaction of macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policy. On top of that, policy makers must deal with uncertainty surrounding the transmission and the effectiveness of newly introduced macroprudential measures. The empirical analyses focus primarily on the Czech Republic and its banking sector, with an exception of the first essay. Using data for the Czech Republic and five euro area countries, the first essay shows that monetary tightening has a negative impact on the credit-to-GDP ratio and banks' capital-to-asset ratio, while these effects have strengthened considerably since mid-2011. This supports the view that accommodative monetary policy contributes to a build- up of financial vulnerabilities, i.e. it boosts the credit cycle. The second essay assesses the transmission of higher additional capital requirements stemming from capital buffers and Pillar 2 add-ons on banks' capital ratio, capital surplus and implicit risk weights. The results...

This thesis consists of four self-contained papers related to banking, credit markets and financial stability.    Paper [I] presents a credit market model and finds, using an agent based modeling approach, that credit crunches have a tendency to occur; even when credit markets are almost entirely transparent in the absence of external shocks. We find evidence supporting the asset deterioration hypothesis and results that emphasize the importance of accurate firm quality estimates. In addition, we find that an increase in the debt’s time to maturity, homogenous expected default rates and a conservative lending approach, reduces the probability of a credit crunch. Thus, our results suggest some up till now partially overlooked components contributing to the financial stability of an economy.     Paper [II] derives an econometric disequilibrium model for time series data. This is done by error correcting the supply of some good. The model separates between a continuously clearing market and a clearing market in the long-run such that we are able to obtain a novel test of clearing markets. We apply the model to the Swedish market for short-term business loans, and find that this market is characterized by a long-run nonmarket clearing equilibrium.    Paper [III] studies the risk-return profile of centralized and decentralized banks. We address the conditions that favor a particular lending regime while acknowledging the effects on lending and returns caused by the course of the business cycle. To analyze these issues, we develop a model which incorporates two stylized facts; (i) banks in which lendingdecisions are decentralized tend to have a lower cost associated with screening potential borrowers and (ii) decentralized decision-making may generate inefficient outcomes because of lack of coordination. Simulations are used to compare the two banking regimes. Among the results, it is found that even though a bank group where decisions are decentralizedmay end up with a portfolio of loans which is (relatively) poorly diversified between regions, the ability to effectively screen potential borrowers may nevertheless give a decentralized bank a lower overall risk in the lending portfolio than when decisions are centralized.    In Paper [IV], we argue that the practice used in the valuation of a portfolio of assets is important for the calculation of the Value at Risk. In particular, a seller seeking to liquidate a large portfolio may not face horizontal demand curves. We propose a partially new approach for incorporating this fact in the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall measures and in an empirical illustration, we compare it to a competing approach. We find substantial differences.

This thesis analyses financial stability in eight members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asia-Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP) economies. One of the factors that may increase financial imbalances (and hence it affects financial stability of an economy) is the accumulated outstanding debt of the economic agents. For example, the corporate sector’s outstanding debt can negatively affect activity of lenders and hence the capabilities of the economy. Since banks are important financial intermediaries in most financial systems, the financial status of banking sector is also important to analyse financial stability of a country. Macroeconomic conditions and financial system structure are some of the important factors that can affect financial conditions (financial soundness) of banks and hence the banking sector. Financial soundness of banks can secure the stability of the financial system. Chapter 2 shows that financial imbalances that arise from accumulated outstanding debt within the corporate sector have a negative effect on the technical capabilities (total factor productivity) of the economy. Therefore, monetary authority (central bank) should control over the debt level. To address this, chapter 2 focuses on the design of monetary policy rule for a small open economy in the context of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. This model is extended to show the effects of financial imbalances on the economy. Real exchange rate is another important factor that affects the firm’s real marginal cost, aggregate supply and aggregate demand as discussed in this chapter. The derived optimal monetary policy rule indicates that the monetary authority responds to financial imbalances through output gap when financial imbalances exist due to accumulated outstanding debt. Moreover, the optimal policy rule shows that the response of the monetary authority to exchange rate movements is indirect, through the domestic inflation and output gap. Chapter 3 describes the effect of the financial system structure on financial stability through investigating the financial soundness of the banking sector. Bank financial soundness is the measure of the stability of the financial system and is defined by return on assets, equity capital-asset ratio and return volatility. The first two items increase financial soundness, whereas return volatility decreases financial soundness of a bank. The structure of the financial system is described as market-based or bank-based. Given interrelations between financial sectors and between economies of the EMEAP countries, chapter 3 uses the global (infinite dimensional) vector autoregressive (VAR) model that has been proposed recently to estimate the generalised impulse responses of financial stability measure. Results show that the market-based financial system can increase financial stability through increasing financial soundness of the banking system. Chapter 4 uses nonperforming loans (NPLs) (as one of the main factors behind Asian financial crisis in 1997/8) to analyse financial soundness of banks. NPLs determine loans default rates that decreases banks’ financial soundness. Chapter 4 tests the resistance of the banking system of the EMEAP countries to large macroeconomic shocks (stresses) in a stress-test framework, computing frequency distributions of default rates in three main macroeconomic scenarios (baseline model, stressed real GDP growth and stressed real interest rate). Default rate indicates the possible loss of banks and hence it is an indicator of credit risk which weakens banks’ financial strength. The stress-test indicates that stressing real GDP growth with negative extreme shocks leads to an increase in frequency of higher default rates (in comparison with the baseline model), whereas positive shock to real interest rate may secure financial stability through increasing the frequency of lower default rates and decreasing frequency of higher default rate.

Šiame rašto darbe analizuojami Europos Sąjungos šalių narių nacionaliniai centriniai bankai ir jų vaidmuo vykdant finansinio stabilumo užtikrinimo funkciją. Šios, vienos iš pagrindinių funkcijų vykdymas, atliekamas naudojant įvairius finansinio stabilumo užtikrinimo instrumentus, kurių įvairiapusiškas tyrimas yra pagrindinė diplominio darbo ašis. Darbo pagrindinis tikslas yra apibendrinti nacionalinių centrinių bankų teisinį savarankiškumą ES erdvėje, ištirti naudojamų finansinio stabilumo užtikrinimo instrumentų rinkinius ir įvertinti naudojamų rinkinių veiksmingumą. Diplominį darbą sudaro trys pagrindinės dalys. Pirmoje dalyje atliekama finansinio stabilumo sampratos ir centrinių bankų veiksmų, siekiant finansinio stabilumo užtikrinimo, mokslinės literatūros analizė. Antroje dalyje pristatoma atliekamo tyrimo problema, pateikiama tyrimo logika bei metodologija. Trečioje dalyje apibendrinami tyrimo rezultatai, pateikiamos išvados ir autoriaus rekomendacijos nustatytose probleminėse srityse. Darbe atliktas tyrimas patvirtina pakankamai didelį ES nacionalinių centrinių bankų teisinį savarankiškumą bei jų disponuojamų finansinio stabilumo užtikrinimo instrumentų skaičių. Taip pat tyrimo rezultatai leidžia daryti išvadą, jog centrinių bankų finansinio stabilumo užtikrinimo efektyvumas priklauso nuo disponuojamų instrumentų skaičiaus ir jų pobūdžio. / This paper work analyses EU national central banks and their role performing financial stability maintenance function. Implementation of one of central banks’ key functions is exercised through special financial stability instruments which are the hinge in accomplished research in this paper. The main objective in this diploma work is to measure national central banks’ legal independence in EU area, examine different usable sets of financial stability instruments in member countries and estimate efficiency of these sets. This paper work consists of three main parts. Theoretical analysis of financial stability and central banks’ actions in maintaining it, is presented in the first part. Second part covers the main problem and methodology of fulfilled research. All results of the research, their evaluation and authors proposals in the situation are presented in the third part. Accomplished research confirms that nation central banks in EU have considerable legal independence and dispose major part of possible financial stability instruments. The research also affirms that there is a quantitative dependence between disposed financial stability instruments number and their complexion.

As a consequence of a turbulent financial market with recurring recessions, the Basel regime was developed, an institutional change with the purpose to create enhanced financial stability through increased capital requirements and increased scrutiny of internal procedures. The Basel regime is an often recurring element in social debates where various aspects are discussed, one of which is whether it maintains its purpose to secure financial stability or whether it is cost effective, and if not, who gets affected by these potential costs. The majority of previously conducted research within this area agrees with the opinion that changes in the regulatory framework within the financial markets, such as the Basel regime, has led to reduced risk of bankruptcy for the banks which has contributed to increased global financial stability. However, research illustrates that these types of changes in the regulatory framework impose a financial burden leading to contradictions in the division of these costs between costumers and shareholders. This dissertation has been conducted from a shareholders perspective, out of which the study ́s three hypothesis has been created from. The data in this study is built upon the stock price from the three largest available banks’ shares (based on total assets), in the 26 countries which are represented in the Basel committee from (2007) to (2013). Calculations of the shares’ systematic risk (beta-value), return, and risk-adjusted return (Treynors ratio) throughout a period of time have been conducted in order to later be tested and lead to statistically significant results and thereby display whether the hypotheses were valid or not. The result of the study indicated that the systematic risk of these shares have declined from (2007) to (2013), which is a confirmation that the Basel regime has fulfilled its purpose in reducing the risk within the banks. However, the study has not been able to show that the return or risk-adjusted return had been condensed, a result which suggests that it is not the banks’ shareholders who carries the costs for alterations of the regulations within financial markets. / Till följd av en turbulent finansiell marknad med återkommande finanskriser utvecklades Baselregimen, en institutionell förändring med syftet att skapa ökad finansiell stabilitet genom bland annat ökade kapitalkrav och skärpta tillsynskrav av interna processer. Baselregimen är ofta förekommande i samhälleliga debatter där olika aspekter diskuteras, så som huruvida den lyckas uppfylla sitt syfte om att skapa ökad finansiell stabilitet eller om huruvida den är kostsam och vem som i så fall drabbas av eventuella kostnader. Majoriteten av tidigare forskning är överens om att regelförändringar inom finansiella marknader, så som Baselregimen, lett till minskad konkursrisk i banker vilket bidragit till ökad global finansiell stabilitet. Dock påvisar forskningen att denna typ av regeländringar är kostsamma, vilket leder till motsägelser kring hur kostnadsfördelningen mellan kunder och aktieägare ser ut. Valet föll i denna uppsats på att studera aktieägarnas perspektiv, vilket studiens tre hypoteser skapats utifrån. Datan har i denna studie utgjorts av aktiekurser från tre av de tillgängliga största bankernas aktier (baserat på totala tillgångar), i de 26 länder som finns representerade i Baselkommittén från år (2007) till år (2013). Beräkningar av bankaktiernas systematiska risk (betavärde), avkastning och riskjusterade avkastning (Treynors kvot) över tiden har genomförts för att sedan testats och leda fram till statistiskt signifikant påvisbara resultat och därmed huruvida hypoteserna förkastas eller inte. Studiens resultat påvisar att den systematiska risken i bankaktierna har sjunkit från år (2007) till år (2013), vilket är en bekräftelse på att Baselregimen uppnått sitt syfte om att sänka risken i bankerna. Dock har inte studiens resultat kunnat påvisa att bankaktiernas avkastning eller riskjusterade avkastning sjunkit, ett resultat som tyder på att det inte är bankernas aktieägare som får bära kostnaden för regelförändringar inom finansiella marknader.

Submitted by Letícia Penhalver Jensen null (leticiapjensen@hotmail.com) on 2016-11-27T20:40:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 LETÍCIA PENHALVER JENSEN (3).pdf: 1787297 bytes, checksum: 3109316b5b47c96f2d24de171e80e0ee (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Felipe Augusto Arakaki (arakaki@reitoria.unesp.br) on 2016-11-30T14:02:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 jensen_lp_me_arafcl.pdf: 1787297 bytes, checksum: 3109316b5b47c96f2d24de171e80e0ee (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-30T14:02:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 jensen_lp_me_arafcl.pdf: 1787297 bytes, checksum: 3109316b5b47c96f2d24de171e80e0ee (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-28 / Embora o referencial teórico da relação entre estabilidade financeira e competição bancária seja vasto, não existe consenso na literatura. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é contribuir para a melhor identificação dos padrões dessa relação. Através de uma análise em nível de empresa, ao buscar evidenciar as características microeconômicas dos riscos dos bancos, identificamos quatro modelos que formam estimados por dados em painel. Os resultados obtidos não evidenciam que uma maior concentração de mercado melhora a estabilidade financeira. / Even though the theoretical framework of the trade-off between financial stability and banking competition is vast, there is no agreement in the literature. The main goal of this work is to contribute to the literature in order to a better explanation of this relationship. Through an analysis at a firm level, in highlighting the microeconomic aspects of bank risks , we have identified four models all estimated by panel data. The results did not show that a rise in the market concentration improves financial stability.

A tese tem como propósito conectar os objetivos de eficiência da indústria bancária, resiliência financeira e estabilidade macroeconômica em um arcabouço integrado e multidimensional, para entender como as fricções financeiras geram trade-offs e como políticas de intervenção do Estado, baseadas em cada uma das dimensões, interagem com os demais conceitos. É desenvolvido um modelo DSGE de escala média que descreve explicitamente o setor bancário e inclui fricções no escopo da firma e da indústria bancária em adição às rigidezes tradicionais dessa classe de modelos. Os objetivos são interpretados a partir de relações endógenas do modelo. Exercícios de comparação de estado estacionário e simulação dinâmica estocástica de ajustamento a choque contracionista de política monetária são utilizados para entender a interação conceitual. Os resultados mostram que as fricções financeiras implicam pass-through imperfeito da política monetária porque o ajustamento dentro da estrutura do passivo bancário é diferente, implicando novas condições de resiliência financeira e induzindo ganhos de eficiência tecnológica. As intervenções do Estado analisadas são as barreiras à entrada, os recolhimentos compulsórios de reservas e os requerimentos de capital. Cada política baseada em um conceito específico de intervenção modifica de maneira particular o comportamento ótimo dos bancos, com efeitos sobre os conceitos adjacentes. As consequências da pesquisa estão relacionadas à formatação de políticas coordenadas e eficazes de intervenção e indicam uma nova fronteira de estudo de políticas ótimas no escopo da Economia Bancária. / The purpose of this dissertation is to connect three banking-related concepts which are banking efficiency, financial resilience, and macroeconomic stability in a single integrated framework. It tries to understand how financial frictions settle trade-offs, whose nature and importance are investigated, and how institutional single-concept-based policies could generate untoward effects. A canonical medium-scale DSGE model is constructed featuring several banking frictions in addition to traditional real and nominal rigidities embodied in macro-models. Concepts are measured and interpreted in terms of endogenous metrics. Steady state comparisons and dynamic simulations for tighten monetary policy are performed. Results show that the concepts considered have very interesting linkages in the banking sector. Financial frictions induce an imperfect pass-through of monetary policy weather adjustments of deposits and bank capital are quite different. Changings in bank allocations and prices lead to new financial resilience conditions and efficiency gains. Institutional interventions such as barriers to entry, compulsory deposit rules and capital requirements, could impose very particular changes in bank\'s choices whose effects would spill over all the concepts. Findings lead to important issues for policy makers regarding the effectiveness and absent coordination of interventions for banking sector. Furthermore, results address a new research area of optimal policy in a multidimensional perspective.

Esta dissertação revê as metodologias de teste de estresse em sistemas financeiros e descreve uma análise de cenário e um teste de estresse aplicado ao Brasil. Os cenários macroeconômicos são modelados por vetores auto-regressivos e o teste de estresse por um probit ordenado com efeitos aleatórios. Dados para o Brasil no período de 11/2002 a 11/2007 são usados para estimar os cenários macroeconômicos. A experiência brasileira de 2002 e início de 2003 parecem particularmente interessante para um teste de estresse por incluir uma grande volatilidade de mercado com taxas de inadimplência e perdas bancárias acima da média. A introdução de cenários macroeconômicos no teste de estresse do sistema financeiro brasileiro e o uso de regressões de dados categorizados com dados em painel são a principal contribuição deste trabalho. O modelo pode ser estendido para usar dados para um setor industrial especifico para identificar potenciais riscos de concentração de empréstimos. / This dissertation reviews financial system stress-testing methodologies and describes a scenario analysis and macro stress testing applied to Brazil. The macroeconomic scenarios are modeled by a vector autoregressive and the stress testing by a random effects ordered probit panel. Data for Brazil over the time period from 11/2002 to 11/2007 is used to estimate the macroeconomic scenarios. The Brazilian experience in 2002 and early 2003 appears particularly suited for macro stress-testing as it includes a great market volatility with significantly higher than average default rates and banks\' losses. Introducing macroeconomic scenarios in Brazilian financial system stress-testing and using categorical regression with panel data are the main contributions of the dissertation. The model can be extended to use industrial specific sector data to stress in order to identify potential risks of loans\' concentration.

The objective of master thesis is the examination of Swedish, Swiss and Polish business cycle in four key areas consisting of internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium, cyclical development indicators and financial stability during 2000-2015 period and analysis of fiscal and monetary policy with respect to anti-crisis measures. The pivotal hypothesis is that Sweden, Switzerland and Poland have managed to deal with Great Recession relatively better than other advanced economies. Theoretical section characterises chosen countries, explains fundamental terms and sets the research framework. The empirical part monitors business cycle by chosen indicators within internal and external equilibrium, cyclical development and financial stability, subsequently evaluates situation before the crisis outbreak and examines anti-crisis measures that have been taken. Empirical section is closed by SWOT which evaluates economic development during 2009-2015 period and serves as tool for main hypothesis verification.