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Modélisation hiérarchique bayésienne pour l'évaluation des populations de thonidés : intérêts et limites de la prise en compte de distributions a priori informatives / Bayesian state-space modelization for tuna stock assessment : interest and limits of informative priorsSimon, Maximilien 11 December 2012 (has links)
La modélisation de la dynamique des populations de thons et grands pélagiques pour l'évaluation des stocks est confrontée à deux enjeux majeurs. (1) L'hypothèse forte de proportionnalité entre Captures Par Unité d'Effort de pêche (CPUE) et l'abondance des stocks. Les CPUE des pêcheries commerciales sont en effet les seules mesures relatives de biomasse utilisées pour l'évaluations des stocks de thons et grands pélagiques, malgré leur manque de représentativité de l'abondance de ces populations. (2) Le manque de données informatives pour modéliser la relation Stock-Recrutement (SR) ce qui conduit à utiliser des contraintes sur la "steepness" de cette fonction. Nous examinons comment l'introduction d'informations indépendantes des pêcheries commerciales dans les modèles pour l'évaluation des stocks thoniers permet de lever l'hypothèse de capturabilité constante et de mieux justifier le choix de la steepness de la relation SR. Le cadre statistique bayésien autorise la prise en compte d'informations supplémentaires via des distributions a priori informatives (priors). Cette thèse examine donc les possibilités d'élicitation de priors informatifs pour des paramètres démographiques et des paramètres liés à la capturabilité des engins de pêche, ainsi que l'utilisation de ces priors dans un modèle global. Les cas d'études sont les stocks de thon rouge (Thunnus thynnus) et d'albacore (Thunnus albacares) de l'Atlantique. La grande variabilité naturelle des taux de mortalités pré-recrutement pose des limites à l'utilisation des seuls traits d'histoire de vie pour l'élicitation de priors pour des paramètres démographiques. Par ailleurs, la relation SR pour les thonidés est remise en question par une valeur de steepness proche de 1. Il apparait que des priors informatifs sur la capturabilité dans un modèle hiérarchique global permettent de réduire les incertitudes dans le diagnostic sur l'état d'un stock thonier. Nous montrons ainsi que le diagnostic sur le stock Atlantique d'albacore est plus pessimiste qu'attendu la tendance à la hausse des capturabilités des principaux engins de pêche est prise en compte. L'élicitation de priors présente donc un fort intérêt pour utiliser des informations supplémentaires et extérieures aux CPUE et améliorer la perception de l'état des stock thoniers. / Modelisation of the population dynamics of tunas and tuna like species for stock assessment is facing two issues. (1) The hypothesis of proportionality between Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) and abundance (constant catchability). CPUEs from commercial fisheries appear to be the only relative measure of abundance in spite of their lack of representativity of the abundances of the populations. (2) The lack of informative data for the modelisation of the Stock-Recruit (SR) relationship, which leads to constraint this function on its steepness. The introduction of fisheries-independent sources of information is investigated in order to relax the assumption of constant catchability and to provide better justification of steepness choice for the SR relationship. The Bayesian statistical framework allows the consideration of additional information a priori via informative distributions (priors). This work investigate the elicitation of informative priors for demographic parameters and parameters related to the catchability of fishing gear, as well as the use of these priors into a surplus production model. The cases of the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) and of the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares}) were taken as examples. The large natural variability of pre-recruits mortality rates limits the use of life history traits for eliciting priors for demographic parameters. In addition, the SR relationship for tuna is challenged by a steepness value close to 1. It appears that informative priors on catchability parameters, in a hierarchical surplus production model, reduce uncertainties in the diagnosis on the status of tuna stocks. We show that the status of the Atlantic yellowfin tuna stock is more critical taking into account upward trends in the main fishing gears catchabilities. We conclude that prior elicitation is a reliable tool to take into account additionnal information and to improve tunas stock assessment.
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Linking individual behaviour and life history: bioenergetic mechanisms, eco-evolutionary outcomes and management implications / Vinculació del comportament individual amb la història de vida: mecanismes bioenergètics, implicacions eco-evolutives i de gestióCampos-Candela, Andrea 08 January 2019 (has links)
Animal behaviour is a state variable of the individual that deserves special attention given its determinant role in eco-evolutionary processes (Wolf et al. 2007 in Nature). The decomposition of the behavioural variation in between- and within-individual variability has revealed the existence of consistent between-individual differences referred to as personality or behavioural types (Dall et al. 2004 in Ecology Letters). Five axes of personality are usually recognized (exploration, aggressiveness, activity, sociability and boldness), and individual specificities along them tend to be correlated leading to what is known as behavioural syndromes. Recently, these patterns of covariation have been enlarged to accommodate movement behaviour within a personality-dependent spatial ecology theory (Spiegel et al. 2017 in Ecology Letters). Most animals tend to forage, reproduce and develop any activity within specific bounded space, which leads to the formation of home range (HR) areas (i.e., HR behaviour, Börger et al. 2008 in Ecology Letters). The increasing development of animal tracking technology is providing a huge amount of movement data revealing that HR behaviour is widespread among taxa and shows a large consistent variability, both at within- and between-individual level, which allows to define the existence of well-contrasted spatial behavioural types (SBTs). SBTs, as other personality traits, play an important role in selective processes as those impelled by harvesting activities. The Pace-of-Life-Syndrome (POLS) theory (Réale et al. 2010 in Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci), hypothesises on how personality traits are expected to be correlated with life history (LH) traits along the fast-slow continuum (Stearns 1992 in Oxford Univ. Press) in the broadest sense. Accordingly, patterns of covariation between specific SBTs, physiology-related features and LHs would be expected to exist whenever they maximize the animal performance in a given environment. However, the way in which behavioural variation at the within-species level is translated to the wide range of LH traits remains a fundamental yet unresolved question, mainly due to the lack of a proper theoretical framework (Mathot & Frankenhuis, March 2018 in Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology). Thus, unrevealing the mechanisms behind is certainly scientifically very exciting but also socially relevant. In such a context, this PhD thesis aimed to address from conceptual, empirical and theoretical perspectives cornerstone questions in behavioural ecology: what are the feasible mechanisms underpinning the establishment of HR areas and within-species variation, what are their consequences for animal functioning and performance (i.e., in. LH traits) at the individual and eco-evolutionary levels, or what are the implications for the assessment and conservation of wildlife of the existence of SBTs. The PhD thesis focusses in a fish heavily exploited by recreational fishers but it aims to provide general reasoning applicable to a wide range of wild animals. First, the PhD thesis proposes a mechanistic theory of personality-dependent movement behaviour based on dynamic energy budget models (i.e., a behavioural-bioenergetics theoretical model). Second, integrated in the field of animal personality (i.e., decomposition of behavioural variability into within- and between-individual’s components), it addresses empirically the study of behavioural variability in the main axis of personality for a marine fish species and looked for evidences of whether personality-mediated differences in energy acquisition may exist. Aiming to support empirically the possible connections between personality traits and space-use behaviour, the thesis provides some insights on the application of a novel-tracking algorithm to analyse the movement of individual fish submitted to different experimental conditions. Third, it provides two examples of how applying HR-related theoretical concepts may improve the management of natural resources: attending the properties of HR may facilitate the assessment of wildlife using fixed monitoring sampling stations, and considering SBTs may influence the assessment of the status of wild fish stocks. Finally, the adaptive value of the proposed behavioural-bioenergetics theory is explored by means of dynamic optimization to understand the eco-evolutionary consequences related with HR variability. In summary, this PhD thesis makes an important contribution to behavioural ecology by developing a unifying theory to test the generality and adaptive value of POLS based on dynamic energy budgets. This behavioural-bioenergetics model connects (1) personality traits (2) HR behaviour, (3) physiology and (4) LH traits through an interwoven of mass/energy fluxes, within which they interact and feedback with the ecological context. Overall, from an eco-evolutionary perspective, the proposed framework constitutes a powerful tool for exploring the ecological role of HR behaviour and predicting what combination of behavioural traits would be evolutionally favoured in a given ecological context. Moving forward to including managerial scenarios, this unifying theory provides scientifically founded knowledge that would promote to improve natural resource management by attending the behavioural component of animal populations.
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