自2002年中共十六大訂定的2020年「全面建設小康社會」之後，恩格爾係數在中國大陸社會經濟領域的地位就大為升高，儼然成為確定生活水平最常用的標準，各地區、省市無不爭相報導本地生活水平已到了「小康」或者「富裕」階段。隨著恩格爾係數受到人民以及地方政府、媒體關注程度提高，更多的質疑也伴隨而來。本碩士論文的研究目的有二：第一，尋找影響中國大陸城鄉恩格爾係數起伏的因素；第二，這些因素影響程度的多少。 就實證結果而言，食品價格指數、依賴比與城鎮恩格爾係數成正向關係；實質收入、物價指數、耐用品消費支出、房地產價格指數、醫療、衣著、教育消費支出與恩格爾係數成負向關係。農村居民方面，實質收入、食品價格指數、房地產價格指數與恩格爾係數成正向關係；物價指數、依賴比、耐用品、醫療、教育、衣著支出與恩格爾係數成負向關係。 由於影響城鄉恩格爾係數的因素各不相同，如果要優化城鎮的消費結構、提高人民生活水平，則應從耐用品消費、教育等支出項目著手，收入已經不是影響城鎮居民恩格爾係數的重要因素；而要提升農村的消費結構及生活水平，則應更注意提高農民收入、注意食品價格指數的起伏，這比成天宣稱恩格爾係數降到多低、達到甚麼階段，更能幫助提升人民的生活水平。然目前中國大陸仍以恩格爾係數最為影響人民生活水平唯一指標，如果沒有輔以其他指標，這對於評價人民生活質量，將有如以管窺豹，無法窺得全貌。 / The importance of Engel's coefficient in Mainland China, has been put on the table since 2002. After the The Sixteenth National Congress of the CPC , ‘Build a Well-off Society in an All-Round Way’has become the main goal in socio-economic area in Mainland China. The position in the area would greatly increase, becoming the most commonly used criteria for determining standard. City are all competing to coverage of local standard of living has come to a "well-off" or "off" stage. As the Engel's coefficient by the people, as well as local governments, higher levels of media attention, more questions are followed. The purposes of this paper are: looking for the factors in Mainland China of urban and rural Engel’s coefficient ups and downs; and how much impact these factors. The empirical result shows: FCPI, dependent ratio, have positive effects on Engel’s Coefficient in the urban; and real income, CPI, PIRE, household facilities, medicine, clothing, education expenditure, have the negative effect. In rural area, real income, FCPI, PIRE, have the positive effect on Engel’s Coefficient; and CPI, dependent ratio, household facilities, medicine, clothing, education expenditure, have the negative effect. To sum up, there are different factor to affect Engel’s Coefficient in urban and rural area. And Engel’s Coefficient is not the only indicate showing the level of people’s living. We should use more indicates to estimate living standard.

Ce travail se propose d’examiner les conséquences du décès parental précoce sur la trajectoire biographique des enfants, dans un régime de mortalité où la principale perturbation n’est pas le VIH/SIDA, mais une grave crise socio-politique. Le Burundi est l’un des épicentres du conflit traversé dans les années 90 par la région des Grands Lacs. A l’aide des données de l’Enquête Socio-Démographique et de Santé de la Reproduction (ESDSR) menée au Burundi en 2002, nous analysons l’impact du décès parental précoce sur un grand nombre de dimensions du parcours de vie des enfants burundais: mortalité, violence et exploitation sexuelle, séparation des membres de la fratrie, scolarité, entrée précoce dans le travail, ressources, conditions de l’héritage, entrée dans la vie reproductive et familiale. Ces analyses sont menées selon l’âge de l’enfant au moment du décès d’au moins un de ses parents, tout en cherchant à évaluer l’effet de la cause de décès des parents (crise/autre cause) sur les résultats obtenus. On montre que la perturbation du parcours de vie des enfants ayant précocement vécu le décès de leur père est mineure. A l’inverse l’expérience précoce de la mère ou du dernier parent survivant affecte la plupart des dimensions de la trajectoire biographique des enfants. La crise burundaise amplifie et, dans certains cas, transforme voire renverse la relation entre l’expérience précoce du décès d’au moins un parent et la trajectoire des enfants. L’orphelin à cause des massacres de masse de 1993 est un orphelin « politique » dont la protection et le soutien par les instances politiques, militaires, administratives et humanitaires est devenu un enjeu de la crise elle-même. / The aim of this paper is to analyze lifetime effects of parental death during childhood, in a country context where HIV/AIDS isn’t the main cause of death among young adults but deaths caused by a major socio-political crisis. During the 90’s, Burundi hosted the cradle of the regional conflict in the Great Lakes. A 2002 demographic, social and reproductive health survey in Burundi (ESDSR) will provide us the information required to analyze impact of early parental death, on a complex panel of life perspectives for children: mortality, violence and sexual abuse, separation of siblings, schooling, working at early age, resources, heritage, early marriage and age at first birth. These analyses are led by child age at early parental death, along with an attempt to estimate the effect from the cause of this death (crisis or other) on results. The strength of leading conclusions is consolidated by the mean of exchanging results, these results being derived from several analysis methods: bivariate and multivariate logistic models adapted or not to clustered data (standard, multilevel, marginal and fixed-effects logistic regressions).We bring lights on the minor effect of early father loss on child life trajectory. On the contrary, early mother or last living parent death experience affects almost every child life trajectory. Burundi crisis emphases but in some cases, reverses those effects from negative to positive. 1993 mass slaughters orphans are “political” orphans. Their political, military, administrative and humanitarian protections became part of the main goals, in the crisis itself.

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2015-01-16T13:14:38Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Tese - Cláudio Roberto Cardoso de Godoi - 2014.pdf: 1446327 bytes, checksum: 78154341b9ccb5964b8508984eea19e1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2015-01-16T13:48:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Tese - Cláudio Roberto Cardoso de Godoi - 2014.pdf: 1446327 bytes, checksum: 78154341b9ccb5964b8508984eea19e1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-01-16T13:48:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Tese - Cláudio Roberto Cardoso de Godoi - 2014.pdf: 1446327 bytes, checksum: 78154341b9ccb5964b8508984eea19e1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-07 / Soybean breeding programs practice selection of high genetic value genotypes with two main objectives: a) to use them as parents in the hybridization process (first stage of the program), and b) to indicate them as new cultivars (final stage of the program). In this context, a first study used microsatellite markers (SSR) to assess the genetic diversity of soybean germplasm adapted to the Brazilian conditions. The experimental material consisted of 192 accessions, which included both introductions and Brazilian germplasm. The genetic divergence was assessed by descriptive analysis and the Rogers-W genetic distance. A total of 222 alleles were identified in the 37 genotyped loci, with an average of six alleles and a range of 2 to 14 alleles per locus. The genotypes were clustered according to the origin of the germplasm, and resulted in two groups: one group formed by introductions and other by Brazilian genotypes. Eighty five percent of the genetic distances estimates were above 0.70, suggesting that the assessed germplasm has good potential for hybridization in soybean breeding programs. It was concluded that the SSR markers are useful to identify divergent genotypic groups, as well as genotypic combinations with high genetic variability. It also became clear that the use of introduced germplasm ensures the incorporation of alleles necessary to increase the genetic base of soybeans and, consequently, the variability needed for the selective process. In a second study, the mixed model approach was used to assess some strategies of estimation and prediction of genotypic values for grain yield in the soybean regional yield trials. A total of 111 genotypes classified into three maturity groups were sown in up to 23 experiments in Central Brazil. The experiments were carried out in randomized complete block designs, with three replications. The biometrical analyses followed the fixed model and mixed model approaches, in the latter case assuming the genotypic effects as random. In the mixed model approach, analyses were made with or without information from the relationship estimates obtained either by genealogy or SSR markers, arranged in a genotypic covariance matrix (G). Also, in a context of spatial analysis, different structures were used in the residual covariance matrix (R) for each mixed model adjusted. The following conclusions were obtained: i) the fixed model analysis is adequate to estimate genotypic values in soybean trials with balanced data and orthogonal design; ii) under such conditions and intermediate to low heritability, the inclusion of relationship information associated to G matrix, although does not ensure the best fit models, improves the precision in predicting genotypic values; iii) the use of spatial structures associated to R matrix, in presence of the residual autocorrelation, improves the goodness of model fit to the data; and, iv) the choice of model for the analysis does not change the ranking of the genotypes in high heritability situations and, therefore, does not impact significantly on the selection of superior genotypes. / Os programas de melhoramento de soja visam à seleção de genótipos de alto valor genético, com a finalidade de uso principalmente em duas de suas etapas: a) como genitores no processo de hibridação (fase inicial); e, b) para indicação como nova cultivar (fase final). Nesse contexto, num primeiro estudo avaliou-se, por meio de marcadores microssatélites (SSR), a diversidade genética em germoplasma de soja adaptado às condições brasileiras. O material experimental constituiu-se de 192 acessos, entre introduções e germoplasma de origem nacional. Na avaliação da divergência genética, considerou-se a análise descritiva e a distância genética de Rogers-W. Nos 37 locos genotipados, identificaram-se 222 alelos, com média de seis alelos por loco e variação de 2 a 14 alelos. O agrupamento dos genótipos mostrou-se associado à origem do germoplasma, resultando em dois grupos: um introduzido e outro brasileiro. Das estimativas de distâncias genéticas obtidas, 85% foram superiores a 0,70, indicando bom potencial do germoplasma para hibridações em programas de melhoramento da soja. Concluiu-se que os marcadores SSR são úteis na identificação de grupos genotípicos divergentes, bem como de combinações de alta variabilidade genética. Ademais, o uso de germoplasma introduzido garante a incorporação de alelos necessários à ampliação da base genética da espécie e, consequentemente, da variabilidade necessária para uso no processo seletivo. Num segundo estudo, no contexto da análise de modelos mistos, avaliaram-se estratégias de estimação e predição de valores genotípicos para produtividade de grãos, a partir de ensaios de competição final de linhagens de soja. Os genótipos, em número de 111 e classificados em três grupos de maturação, foram semeados em até 23 experimentos conduzidos na região central do Brasil. Os experimentos foram conduzidos no delineamento de blocos completos casualizados, com três repetições. Nas análises biométricas adotaram-se as abordagens de modelo fixo e de modelo misto, neste caso, assumindo-se efeitos genotípicos como aleatórios. Na última abordagem, consideraram-se ainda análises com ou sem uso da informação de parentesco genético, obtida a partir de genealogias ou por marcadores SSR, e associada à matriz de covariâncias dos efeitos aleatórios (G). Para cada modelo, num contexto de análise espacial, adotaram-se também distintas estruturas para a matriz de covariâncias residuais (R). Concluiu-se, então, que: i) a análise com modelo fixo é adequada para estimar efeitos genotípicos em soja, sob condições de balanceamento dos dados e ortogonalidade do delineamento; ii) sob tais condições, a inclusão da informação de parentesco associada à matriz G, embora não garanta melhor ajuste aos modelos, sob herdabilidade moderada ou baixa, melhora a precisão das predições de valores genotípicos; iii) o uso de estruturas espaciais associadas à matriz R, na presença de autocorrelação residual, melhora o ajuste estatístico dos modelos; e, iv) corrobora-se a tese de que, sob alta herdabilidade, a escolha do modelo de análise não altera o posicionamento relativo dos genótipos, e, portanto, não impacta significativamente na seleção de genótipos superiores.