The study is a contextual analysis of flood victimization. Victimization is defined as the social, psychological, and physiological aftermath experienced by victims of a disaster. Disaster researchers concentrate on the victims' characteristics to explain the varying degrees of their victimization, providing only ambiguous results. Theorists such as Kreps, Wildavsky, and Douglas contend that the outcomes of disasters are contingent upon social structure. This analysis treats victimization as one such outcome. The condition and behavior of individuals can be explained by the presence of disaster and the conditions of social organization. A model explains victimization based on individual's attributes (individual resources), his social environment, and the disaster characteristics. This study uses the 1984 Mingo Creek Flood Victims Survey data to test the model. The data contain information measuring victimization. The survey data are linked with 1980 Census tract data. The tract data provide indicators of the social networks. This tract information, the contextual variables, taps the social conditions, including poverty, unemployment, geographic mobility, and family patterns. This study uses factor analysis to identify the dimensions of victimization. Regression tests the relationship between the contextual variables, the individual resource variables, the disaster characteristic variables, and victimization. The results of the analysis show that victimization is multidimensional with different types of variables being significant predictors for each dimension of victimization, one variable indicating the intensity of the disaster, the dollar value of damage victims experienced, is found to be a significant predictor of the psychological, physiological, and social disruption aspects of victimization. Variables measuring the family and unemployment patterns in the victims' census tract are significant predictors of the psychological and social disruption aspect of victimization. The findings provide general support for the proposed model of victimization. However, victimization is multidimensional with each dimension having a unique set of predictors. Based on the findings, this study suggests that future research focus on measurement and conceptualization of the characteristics of disasters and the victims' social environment.

This research explored the City of Johannesburg’s response to floods in the lower-income settlement of Soweto in February 2009, through participant observation, interviews and examination of official documentation. The municipality’s response indicates the governance forces that may shape adaptation to increasingly severe and frequent climate events in the context of development pressures and needs. It was found that the flood event provided a ‘window of opportunity’ for action and learning on flooding, but governance factors hindered an effective response. These included the framing of flood risk, limitations in the City of Johannesburg’s municipal structure, institutional power dynamics, and the performance culture. The research demonstrated that networked governance is critical to adaptation in global South cities. In the case of Johannesburg city, conflicting governance paradigms constrained the realisation of networked governance modes. Resolving tensions amongst competing governance approaches is necessary to advance both the climate and development agenda in Johannesburg.

L’érosion des sols est intense dans les petits bassins versants montagneux en climat tropical. Lorsqu’ils atteignent les rivières, ces sédiments posent divers problèmes à l’aval. L’identification des sources de sédiments et la compréhension de leur dynamique au sein des bassins versants est donc cruciale pour proposer des mesures de lutte efficaces contre ces problèmes. Cette thèse vise à tester et à développer des méthodes de traçage qui consistent à comparer les propriétés physico-chimiques des sols à celles des sédiments transportés dans les rivières pour en définir les sources et pour en contraindre les temps de transfert. Le site d’étude est un bassin de 22,4 km² au Laos équipé d’un emboîtement de stations de suivi et soumis à un régime de mousson. Trois campagnes de prélèvements ont permis de collecter des échantillons de sols de surface, de ravines et de berges ainsi que des eaux de pluies, de ruissellement et de rivières, les matières en suspension (MES) associées et des laisses, au cours de 3 crues de début de mousson en mai 2012 et juin 2013. Les échantillons ont été analysés afin de déterminer leurs activités en radionucléides apportés au sol par les pluies de manière ponctuelle (¹³⁷Cs) ou continue (⁷Be, ²¹ºPb), la teneur et la composition de la matière organique (C organique, N, C/N, δ¹³C et δ¹⁵N), la granulométrie des MES et la composition de l’eau (conductivité électrique, δ¹⁸O). Plusieurs expériences méthodologiques ont permis de tester et valider les hypothèses qui sous-tendent l’utilisation du marquage en ⁷Be et en excès de ²¹ºPb des sédiments (adsorption rapide sur les particules de sol, rapport ⁷Be / ²¹ºPbxs des particules transportées par le ruissellement comparable à celui de la pluie correspondante). Durant la crue de mai 2012, la contribution des sédiments récemment érodés est élevée en début d’événement (25-35%), mais elle est ensuite diluée par la remobilisation de particules déposées sur le lit du cours d’eau ou stockées dans les zones de dépôt. La caractérisation combinée du carbone organique particulaire (COP) et de l’activité en ¹³⁷Cs des particules a mis en évidence la prédominance de l’érosion des sols de surface marqués par leur signature C₃ à l’amont, et l’augmentation de la contribution de l’érosion des berges (marquage C₄) dans la partie aval du bassin. Les valeurs les plus élevées des taux d’exportation de sédiments (43,3 Mg km-2) et de C (0,83 MgC km-2), du coefficient de ruissellement (11,7%) et du pourcentage d’eau de ruissellement dans l’écoulement total (78-100%) ont été observées au niveau de la station drainant en grande partie des versants sous teck. Les teneurs en C mesurées et les flux de COP calculés ici sont beaucoup plus élevés que ceux qui ont été estimés lors de travaux réalisés il y a 10 ans dans le même bassin versant, lorsque la surface couverte de teck y était beaucoup plus faible (2,5% en 2002-2003 contre 32% en 2012). Ainsi, à l’aval, le taux d’exportation spécifique de C lors d’une seule crue en 2012 s’est révélé être 2,6 fois plus important que celui observé au cours de l’année hydrologique 2002-2003 (34 crues érosives). Lors des deux crues de juin 2013, la variabilité spatio-temporelle des retombées de ⁷Be et ²¹ºPb a pu être quantifiée. Ces résultats indiquent qu’il est indispensable de mesurer le signal d’entrée du marquage ⁷Be /²¹ºPb de chaque événement et qu’il est préférable de réaliser un échantillonnage en plusieurs points du bassin plutôt que de le fractionner en un seul point au cours du temps. Durant ces crues, la composition des sédiments a pu être étudiée le long d’un continuum de dix stations emboitées (0,1 ha à 19,8 km²). Les contributions respectives des différentes sources de sédiments, et leur propagation à travers le bassin, ont pu être déterminées à l’aide des mêmes traceurs que lors de la crue de mai 2012. À l’avenir, la combinaison de traceurs proposée dans cette thèse pourrait être appliquée à d’autres évènements ou d’autres sites. / Soil erosion is particularly intense in small mountainous tropical catchments. When supplied to the rivers, eroded sediment leads to numerous problems downstream (transfer of pollutants, increase of water turbidity, dam siltation…). Identifying sediment sources and understanding their dynamics across catchments constitutes a prerequisite to design and implement efficient measures to reduce these problems. This thesis aimed at testing and developing fingerprinting methods, by comparing physico-chemical properties of soils and riverine suspended sediment to define their origin and constrain their transfer across catchments. The study site is a 22.4 km² catchment in northern Laos equipped with nested monitoring stations and submitted to monsoon rainfalls. Three field campaigns were conducted to collect samples of surface soils, gullies, riverbanks, and rainwater, overland flow, river water, suspended matter and deposited sediment during three floods at the beginning of the monsoon in May 2012 and June 2013. Collected samples were analysed to determine fallout radionuclide activities (¹³⁷Cs, ⁷Be and ²¹ºPb), organic matter composition (organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations, C/N ratio, δ¹³C et δ¹⁵N), particle size distribution and water composition (electric conductivity and δ¹⁸O). Several methodological experiments were performed to check assumptions underlying the use of atmospheric 7Be and ²¹ºPb as tracers of sediment (quick adsorption of rainwater radionuclides to soil particles; similarity between /210Pbxs activity ratio measured in overland flow particles and corresponding rainfall signature). During the flood studied in May 2012, the contribution of recently eroded sediment was high at the beginning of the rising stage (25-35%), but was then diluted by sediment remobilization from the riverbed and deposition areas (swamps). The combined determination of particulate organic carbon (POC) and ¹³⁷Cs activity of sediment indicated the dominance of surface soil ( C₃ vegetation labelling) erosion in upstream parts and the increase of riverbank (labelled by C₄ plants) erosion contribution in the downstream part of the catchment. The highest runoff coefficient (11.7%), sediment specific yield (43.3 Mg km-2), total organic carbon specific yield (0.83 MgC km-2) and overland flow contribution (78–100%) were found at the station draining mainly the areas covered with teak plantations. Total organic carbon concentrations and POC specific yields calculated during this thesis are much higher than those obtained during a previous study carried out 10 years earlier in the same catchment, when teak plantations covered a much lower proportion of its area (2.5% in 2002-2003 vs 32% in 2012). At the downstream station, carbon specific yields for the studied flood in 2012 were twice higher than the annual ones observed in 2002-2003 (34 erosive events). During the two floods analysed in June 2013, the spatial and temporal variability of ⁷Be and ²¹ºPb wet deposition was investigated and quantified. The results indicate that the input signal of ⁷Be/²¹ºPb labelling associated with each storm should be determined and that spatially distributed collection of rainfall should be privileged to the sequential time-fractionated sampling at a single location. During these floods, the composition of exported suspended sediment could be studied along a continuum of ten nested stations draining areas between 0.1 ha and 19.8 km². Respective contributions of the different surface and subsurface sources of sediment and their propagation across the catchment, were successfully determined with the same tracers as during the May 2012 event. In future, the panel of parameters used in this thesis could be applied to characterise suspended matter behaviour during floods occurring later in the rainy season, or along a longer continuum of nested monitoring stations.

The American Defense Institute for Medical Operations (DIMO) states that deaths associated with disasters have increased by 50 percent each decade and as Alexander (2002) notes, although disasters require special organization, coordination and resources, they are not exceptional events. Disasters tend to be repetitive; often re-occurring in the same places and as such, are sufficiently frequent and predictable enough to plan for. Disasters are occurring more frequently due to industrialization and rapid development, and as the world’s population has grown, large numbers of people are “vulnerable”; living in less desirable, less ‘safe’ areas. “Natural” disasters hit developing countries perhaps harder, where more people are vulnerable, infrastructure is lacking to begin with and resources are already stretched. Many countries including South Africa are challenged by the increasing number of natural disasters and how to protect the most vulnerable who are without basic infrastructure and largely without access to media. Thus effective public health communication and promotion has become of critical importance particularly in high risk communities and is possible since disasters often occur in the same places. Purpose Literature exists on the efficacy of using media channels to reach people with critical public health messages during disasters, but no studies have focused specifically on other means of communicating public health messages during disasters in places where media doesn’t reach or people can’t justify the cost of batteries for their radios. No research has been done to determine if the people affected recall life saving lessons imparted during disasters; why or why not. Similarly, there is little in the way of documentation detailing the following during past disasters that have occurred both on the African continent and worldwide: who communicated public health messages; what messages were communicated and how messages were imparted. Media – specifically radio and television are used in developed countries to communicate warnings and evacuation messages for example. At best there are reports from the different NGO’s that operate in communities affected by a disaster or NGO’s that arrived to provide humanitarian assistance. It can be surmised that communication is done by those that take the JENNIFER HESLOP/ Student ID No. 0516028Y 6 initiative using whatever channels exist; this may likely include the affected country’s own resources, NGO’s and responders. Coordination to prevent duplicating messages or groups operating in the same areas has in the past been lacking. As such, there is a need to look critically at vulnerable places and people, the value of the information imparted during disasters, why messages may or may not be heeded and if communities would apply the information in future without outside assistance. The study looks at a community that was affected by a specific disaster in South Africa; what proportion of the sample learned life-saving information for the first time during the disaster and whether they would recall these life-saving mechanisms, unaided, in similar future scenarios. Another objective was to determine if gender, age, education or employment status was of any significance against the portion of the study population that learned the information for the first time during the floods. The research leads one to question whether messages are in context with people’s realities and what would prevent them from applying the principles imparted. Broader questions arose, like, do disasters provide an opportunity for learning where there was no learning yet established; and is there an opportunity for engagement between “outsiders” (those with expertise) and “insiders” (affected community) that is truly beneficial to those in need of the information – beneficial in the sense that the information could be applied in future without outside assistance? Design/ methodology The research included two key groups of people: those responsible for the decision making around the communication and public health response to the disaster, and the affected communities. The research design included qualitative key informant interviews accessed through snowballing technique and quantitative face-to-face interviews with 100 community members. The qualitative study was a descriptive, semi-structure interview outline designed to provide a framework to describe the situation, the health risks, priorities, health promotion messages that were communicated and how they were communicated. Key informants were made up of members of the disaster response team as well as others that played a role during the floods. The interviews were transcribed; reoccurring themes were identified and distilled to get the three most critical public health messages that were communicated during the floods. The recurring themes formed the basis of the quantitative questionnaire. JENNIFER HESLOP/ Student ID No. 0516028Y 7 The quantitative study, a cross sectional descriptive study, relied on one hundred community members living in the broader Qho area during the floods and provided they met the criteria (they lived in the area during the floods and could recall what happened), they were asked for their consent before the interview commenced. The data were captured and analysed using Epi Info 6, frequencies were run to describe the sample, and then cross tabulations were performed, looking for associations between the outcome variables and demographic and media variables; chi square tests were performed to test for significance. The three most critical public health messages were: water purification, oral re-hydration therapy for diarrhea and warnings not to eat an animal that had died of unknown causes during the floods. Findings The findings of the research indicate that across two public health messages more than half of all respondents learned the information that may have saved their lives for the first time during the floods. Forty-eight percent learned how to purify water for the first time during the floods; 54.2 percent learned about oral re-hydration therapy during the floods; and 55.6 percent learned not to eat an animal that has died of unknown causes during the floods. Determining whether the sample population would apply the same lessons learned, unaided, in future similar circumstances, is harder to prove since it is self-reported. Nearly 100 percent across the three questions said categorically that they would and most could name ways to purify water, stop diarrhea and said that they knew not to eat an animal that has died of unknown causes. One hundred percent of responders said they would know what to do to make dirty water clean and some cited ways they would do this by boiling and/ or the use of ‘Jik’ (brand of bleach; in South Africa, the word ‘Jik’ has become synonymous with ‘bleach’). Ninety percent of the sample said they would use “the salt and sugar mixture in water” to treat diarrhea and 90 percent knew they should not eat an animal that has died of unknown causes. It is perhaps of interest to note that significantly more men learned during the flood to use OTR for diarrhea than women. Thus disasters may likely provide an opportunity for men to learn health practices that normally women would be more likely to have learned. There was also a significant difference between those that learned about ORT during the floods and those that learned before the floods by level of education, with 63 percent of those that learned about ORT before the floods, having completed primary school. Also of interest was the fact that while only 15 percent of the total sample population has access to television, of the 55.6 percent that learned not to eat an animal that has died of an unknown cause during the floods, 24.5 percent had access to television, and 86 percent of those with access to TV learned about this during the flood. Practical implications Disasters provide opportunities to fast-track development and public health goals. However, based on the research, for communication to have the desired response, communities and public health experts should be involved in dialogue with broader stakeholders before, during and after disasters. It is important to include “locals” (experts from the broader community) and community healthcare workers on an on-going basis, in public health promotion and preparedness strategies and to involve men in the community; a group that has largely been absent in communities and not historically involved in family health care. When a disaster is declared, an injection of resources – human, physical and financial assists significantly in making things happen, from providing and / or upgrading infrastructure to getting critical information and resources to affected populations. Just as critical is education – teaching people how to respond and why, as opposed to just telling people. Knowledge is more sustainable than physical resources, although both are often required. People need to truly understand the information in their own contexts, as well as the “why’ and “how” if they are going to be able to replicate the lessons unaided in future. Concurrently, affected people are more open to information and changing behaviours that may now seem foolish or outdated. Electronic media channels cannot be relied upon as the sole means of communication but need to be incorporated despite low penetration, due to the powerful effect the mediums have in stimulating word-of-mouth transmission of messages, particularly messages that may lead to social discomfort. Alternative means of communication like face-to-face dialogue and use of cell phone messaging, and understanding how communication must be done to ensure effectiveness is imperative - and these guidelines are applicable across cultural, political and socio-economic JENNIFER HESLOP/ Student ID No. 0516028Y 9 boundaries. It is imperative that those providing assistance understand the affected population and their realities as if they were his or her own. This includes local resources like media; literacy levels; beliefs and values; as well as who is trusted by the community.

O objetivo geral da pesquisa é verificar até que ponto a Geografia ensinada em escolas cuja comunidade é afetada por enchentes tem realizado a leitura do espaço de vivência dos alunos e uma aprendizagem significativa. O trabalho de campo foi realizado em cinco escolas públicas (estaduais e municipais) situadas no entorno do rio Aricanduva, no baixo e médio cursos do rio, na área de maior inundação. Foram entrevistados Diretores, Coordenadores Pedagógicos, Professores e alunos da 6ª série do ensino fundamental. Os questionários (abertos) versam sobre a construção do conhecimento em Geografia e a noção de enchentes. Também foram analisadas as Propostas Curriculares Oficiais e os livros didáticos (adotados nas escolas). Observou-se que há um descompasso, entre o que se intenciona ensinar, a concepção de ensino e de Geografia e o que se aprende na disciplina. De um lado os professores (Propostas Curriculares e os livros didáticos) têm uma concepção que se preocupa com a realidade e o desenvolvimento do pensamento crítico, por outro lado; os alunos, possuem uma concepção da disciplina e da escola ligada à localização, ao mercado de trabalho e ao conhecimento enciclopédico. Em relação às enchentes prevalecem, entre os entrevistados, explicações destituídas de elaboração científica, embora, entre os professores, haja alguma compreensão da questão das inundações urbanas enquanto produto do processo de urbanização, como pensamos deveria ser. Os resultados demonstram a relevância da concepção de ensino baseada na construção de conhecimentos com referência no conhecimento cotidiano e situado no espaço vivido dos alunos. / The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which geography taught in schools whose community is affected by flooding has made the reading of the living space of students and significant learning. The fieldwork was conducted in five public schools (state and municipal) located around the river Aricanduva in low and middle courses of the river, the area of major flooding. Directors were interviewed, educational coordinators, teachers and students from 6th grade education. Questionnaires (open) deal with the construction of knowledge in geography and the notion of flooding. Also analyzed the proposed curricula and textbooks (adopted in schools). It was observed that there is a mismatch between what we intend to teach, design and teaching of geography and what is learned in the discipline. On the one hand teachers (Proposed Curriculum and textbooks) have a design that is concerned with reality and the development of critical thinking, on the other hand, the students have a concept of discipline and school linked to location, market work and encyclopedic knowledge. In relation to floods prevail among respondents explanations devoid of scientific development, though, among teachers, there is some understanding of the issue of urban flooding as a product of the urbanization process, we think it should be. The results reveal the importance of design education based on the construction of knowledge with reference to everyday knowledge and situated in the lived space of students

O intenso crescimento urbano vem agravando diversos problemas socioambientais e econômicos nas cidades. Nesse cenário, inundações urbanas são crescentes em muitas cidades brasileiras, causando diversos problemas. Embora as enchentes sejam consideradas fenômenos cíclicos e naturais, podem ser potencializadas pela ação humana. Visando o reconhecimento dos condicionantes destes eventos, a metodologia utilizada foi integrada, englobando fatores naturais, sociais e antrópicos. Foram pesquisados os eventos de inundações na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Jaú, as características humanas que influenciam, bem como a identificação das áreas de risco, visando contribuir social e ambientalmente para a minimização desses danos no município de Jaú-SP. No intuito de contribuir com a população que se encontra nas áreas de risco, foi realizado um estudo de campo, através da utilização de entrevistas, compatível com a realidade do município. O estudo documental, através do histórico de inundações na área urbana nos últimos dez anos, relacionou o processo de urbanização e a incidência de inundações. Entrelaçado a esses dados, identificou-se os bairros de ocorrência de inundação. A pesquisa demonstrou que existem 39 bairros suscetíveis a eventos de enxurradas e inundações. Já a inundação do ano de 2011, trouxe gastos totais de R$ 6.593.070,00 para o município, com danos materiais, não materiais e ambientais, além de prejuízos econômicos e sociais. Quanto a sociedade, observou-se que a relação entre ser humano e natureza se encontra estritamente desfavorável para ambos. / The intense urban growth is exacerbating many social, environmental and economic problems in cities. In this scenario, urban floods are increasing in many Brazilian cities, causing various problems. Although the floods are considered cyclical and natural phenomena, they may be potentiated by human action. Aimed at recognizing the constraints of these events, the methodology was integrated, encompassing natural factors, social and man-made. The flood events in the basin of Rio Jau were surveyed, the human characteristics that influence, and the identification of risk areas in order to contribute socially and environmentally to minimize such damage in the town of Jau-SP. In order to contribute to the population that is in risk areas, a field study was conducted through the use of interviews, consistent with the reality of the city. The desk study through the history of flooding in urban areas over the past decade, related the process of urbanization and the incidence of flooding. Intertwined with these data, it identified flood occurrence neighborhoods. Research has shown that there are 39 districts susceptible to runoff events and flooding. Since the flood of 2011, brought total expenditures of $ 6,593,070.00 for the county, material damages, nonmaterial and environmental as well as economic and social losses. As society, it was observed that the relationship between humans and nature is strictly negative for both.

O aumento da população em grandes centros urbanos, dos problemas ambientais, e as mudanças climáticas globais são alguns dos fatores que têm influenciado numa maior intensidade e a frequência de eventos extremos e de desastres naturais em todo o globo. A região sul do Brasil aparece como uma das mais afetadas, sofrendo com estiagens e inundações recorrentes. O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar o risco de inundação da bacia hidrográfica do arroio Feijó que sofre frequentemente com inundações. Baseia-se na abordagem metodológica do Índice de Vulnerabilidade, que contempla dados demográficos e sociais dos setores censitários (IBGE). Abrange áreas dos municípios de Porto Alegre, Alvorada e Viamão, no estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Ao longo do período analisado, de 1980 a 2015, foram registradas 36 inundações em 19 anos, com a probabilidade de 53% ocorrência de um novo evento danoso a cada ano. Os meses com maior frequência são fevereiro setembro e outubro. Ainda que 63% dos anos com inundações tenham apontado atuação do fenômeno El Niño – Oscilação Sul, não é possível apontar influência direta dos mesmos nesses processos. Entendendo o risco como a relação do perigo ou ameaça de ocorrência de eventos adversos com a vulnerabilidade dos elementos expostos gerou-se a espacialização desses fatores e o mapa de risco de inundação. O perigo expressa a probabilidade quantitativa ou qualitativa de recorrência, abrangência, intensidade que ocorre o processo. Por meio da mancha de inundação de tempo de retorno de 100 anos, obteve-se o mapa de perigo. Os setores apontados com alto a muito alto perigo localizam-se nos bairros de Alvorada (Passo do Feijó, Umbu, Jardim Algarve e Americana) e Porto Alegre (Rubem Berta), apresentando de 50% a 80% das suas áreas com possibilidade de serem inundadas. O levantamento por meio do índice de vulnerabilidade proposto apontou os setores mais vulneráveis de toda a bacia em geral, bem como os que indicam qual população está mais exposta aos eventos adversos. Os municípios de Alvorada e Viamão foram os que apontaram mais setores com índice de elevado de vulnerabilidade. Setores que apontam baixo desenvolvimento social e baixa capacidade de enfretamento aos desastres. Por meio do mapa de risco, foram identificadas as áreas com baixo a muito alto riscos de inundação da BHAF, os setores censitários mais críticos, encontram-se nos bairros Passo do Feijó e Americana em Alvorada. A análise de risco demostra ser importante ferramenta para identificar áreas que necessitem maior atenção do poder público e investimentos em ações de proteção, prevenção e mitigação. A metodologia demonstrou ser eficaz, sendo de fácil execução, implementação e baixo custo. Pretende-se dessa forma, contribuir através desse estudo para uma gestão de riscos e desastres mais eficiente na área. / The increase in population in large urban centers, enviromental issues and global climate changes, among others factors, have increased the frequency and the intensity of extreme events and natural disasters across the globe and in this country. The south appears to be the most affected region, suffering from droughts and floods. This study aims to analyze the risks of flooding at the Feijo stream basin which often suffers from floods. The study is based on the methodological approach of the vulnerability index, which includes demographic and social data from the census tracts (IBGE). It covers areas of the municipalities of Porto Alegre, Alvorada e Viamão, at the Rio Grande do Sul state. Over the period analyzed, from 1980 to 2015, 36 floods were recorded in 19 years, with the probability of a 53% occurrence of a new damaging event each year. The most frequent months are February, September and October. Although 63% of the years with the occurrence of floods have also shown the occurrence of El Niño - South Oscillation phenomenon, it is not possible to indicate direct influence. Recognizing risk as the relation of danger or threat of adverse occurring events with the vulnerability of the elements exposed is how the spatialization of these factors and the flood risk map were generated. The hazard expresses the quantitative or qualitative probability of recurrence, extent, intensity in which the process occurs. By means of the 100-year return time flood spot the hazard map was obtained. The high-risk areas are located in the Alvorada (Passo do Feijó, Umbu, Jardim Algarve and Americana) and Porto Alegre (Rubem Berta) neighborhoods, pointing to 50% to 80% of these areas with the possibility of being flooded. The survey using the proposed Vulnerability index showed the most vulnerable sectors of the entire basin, as well as which population groups are most exposed to adverse events. The municipalities of Alvorada and Viamão were those that indicated more sectors with a high index of vulnerability. These are sectors that show low social development and low ability to cope with disasters. By means of the risk map, the areas with low to very high flood risks of BHAF (the most critical census tracts) were identified in the Passo do Feijó and Americana neighborhoods in Alvorada. The risk analysis proves to be an important tool to identify areas that need greater public attention and investments in protection, prevention and mitigation actions. The methodology proved to be effective, being to put into effect and implement, and at a low cost. The aim is to contribute through this study to a more efficient risk and disaster management in the area.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Inserida na temÃtica de risco associados à inundaÃÃo urbana sobre a realidade de uma cidade potiguar do semiÃrido nordestino brasileiro. Tendo como objetivo o estudo da dinÃmica climÃtica - hidrolÃgica frente a situaÃÃes de emergÃncia e estado de calamidade pÃblica (estiagens e inundaÃÃes), com Ãnfase na metodologia de delimitaÃÃo das Ãreas de risco de inundaÃÃes urbanas considerando as caracterÃsticas meteorolÃgicas e os efeitos econÃmicos e sociais na vida da populaÃÃo atingida. Os principais conceitos discutidos: perigo, risco, desastre, catÃstrofe, vulnerabilidade e eventos extremos. A metodologia consistiu na pesquisa documental, de bancos de dados, e ainda pesquisa de campo, anÃlise e interpretaÃÃo da evoluÃÃo urbana e dinÃmica climÃtica, delimitaÃÃo dos espaÃos-risco de inundaÃÃo urbana em Mossorà obedecendo aos seguintes recortes temporais: dados urbanos (1970-2010), climÃticos (1970-2013), defesa civil de Mossorà (1983-2013). A gestÃo do risco em discussÃo està voltada ao mapeamento, prevenÃÃo, monitoramento, alerta e resposta. Na sÃrie em anÃlise encontrou-se 18 eventos extremos, destes 16 anos foi decretado situaÃÃo de emergÃncia e 2 estado de calamidade pÃblica. Adotou-se tambÃm metodologia que possibilita a delimitaÃÃo dos espaÃos-risco de inundaÃÃo no nÃcleo urbano de Mossorà e populaÃÃo atingida por setor censitÃrio. A metodologia mostrou que o uso das imagens ASTERGDEM na resoluÃÃo de 30 metros sÃo ferramentas interessantes para definiÃÃo das Ãreas de risco de inundaÃÃo, uma vez que atravÃs de programas como Qgis 2.8 e Arcgis 10.1 existe a possibilidade da aplicaÃÃo de filtros para diminuir os ruÃdos da imagem, bem como a suavizaÃÃo das curvas de nÃvel. Encontrou-se duas zonas a primeira com inundaÃÃo mÃxima nas cotas de 15 metros e a menor entre 7 e 13 metros. O cruzamento e delimitaÃÃo com os setores censitÃrios mostrou que 67 setores sÃo diretamente atingidos, sendo que 35.775 pessoas estÃo na primeira zona (atà 15 metros) e 8.364 pessoas estÃo na segunda zona (7 a 13 metros). Sendo que os setores com maior nÃmero de pessoas em risco sÃo: Barrocas 10.708 pessoas, Belo Horizonte 6.353, Alto da ConceiÃÃo 5.306, ParedÃes 5.187, Ilha de Santa Luzia, Lagoa do Mato 2.015, Pintos 1.436., Bom Jardim 1.430 e Alto de SÃo Manoel 1.153. Neste contexto foi elaborada uma proposta para o plano de contingÃncia à inundaÃÃo considerando os bairros mais atingidos. A valorizaÃÃo dos espaÃos-risco, como tradutores de expressÃo dos potenciais perigos, promove a adequaÃÃo e assegura recursos e meios para a proteÃÃo e socorro, favorece tambÃm a infraestruturaÃÃo da saÃde e o apoio social (quantitativamente e qualitativamente) das Ãreas perigosas / This research is within the topic of risk associated with urban floods in a semiarid northeast Brazilian city. The aim of the research is the study of climate dynamics â hydrological (droughts and floods) in situations of emergency and a state of emergency. The research focuses on the methodology of delimitation of urban floods considering the weather and its economic and social impacts on the lives of the affected population. The concepts discussed are: hazard, risk, disaster, catastrophe, vulnerability and extreme events. The methodology used is based on review of existing documentation, database and fieldwork, analysis and interpretation of urban evolution and climatic dynamics and delimitation of flood risky spaces in Mossorà with the following timeframes: urban data (1970-2010), climatic (1970-2013), Mossorà civil defense (1983-2013). The risk management approach in discussion is related to risk mapping, prevention, monitoring, alert and response. Within the analyzed series, 18 events were found, among them 16 were declared as situation of emergency and 2 as state of emergency. This research explores a methodology that enables the definition of flooding areas in the urban core of Mossorà andpeople at risk through the census tracts. The methodology showed that the use of ASTERGDEM images with the resolution of 30 meters is an interesting approach for definition of flooding areas, given that, with the use of Qgis 2.8 and Arcgis 10.1 there is a possibility of application of filters to reduce noise from the images as well as smoothing the contours. Two regions were found, the first with the maximum flood at an altitude of 15 meters and the lowest between 7 and 13 meters. The intersection and delimitation with census tracts shows that 67 census tracts are daily affected, with 35.775 people living in the first region (up to 15metres) and 8.364 people are in the second region (7-13 metres), the sectors with the largest number of people at risk are: Barrocas 10.708 people, Belo Horizonte 6.353, Alto da ConceiÃÃo 5.306, ParedÃes 5.187, Ilha de Santa Luzia, Lagoa do Mato 2.015, Pintos 1.436., Bom Jardim 1.430 e Alto de SÃo Manoel 1.153. As a result a contingency plan was proposed considering the most affected neighborhoods. The appreciation of the risky areas, as an expression of the potential hazards, promotes fitness and ensures resources and means for the protection and relief, also favors health and social support (quantitatively and qualitatively) in dangerous areas

The role of local level governance and participation in managing climate disasters is gaining precedence in global and local (South African), discourse. In recent years, floods have caused major disasters in urban centres around the world. A lack of disaster preparedness in developing countries has resulted in much damage in urban environments. Such damage will have long-term repercussions for governance, communities and the natural environment. Heavy rainfall events are projected to become more intense and frequent due to climate change, and many recently affected areas may consequently face increased risk of flooding in future. A range of factors influences the ability to manage disasters through all phases of preparation, response and recovery at the local level. The objective of this research is to investigate the extent to which a range of factors interacts to either enhance or limit resilience to flood disasters at the local scale. This is explored through triangulating the results of three investigations into both physical and social factors of understanding and managing flood disasters. The case study of flooding in Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality (EMM) in South Africa, with specific focus on the Atlasville suburb, provides the basis of the research. The research uses a multidisciplinary approach to examine disaster management, which includes perceptions and non-technical information in addition to statistical analysis. Flooding in the EMM is used as a case study to investigate how a multiple-perspective understanding of rainfall and flood events can help communities and municipalities better plan for and manage disaster events. This research argues that in order to understand the nuances of flood disasters, a combination of different sets of knowledge is necessary, as each set of knowledge plays an important part to inform how flood risks can be managed.

The purpose of this thesis is to understand the reasons for the varying adaptation policies in place for coastal states that will experience flooding as result of climate change. Responses to excessive precipitation and worsened flooding differ widely between predominantly conservative and predominantly progressive states. The levels of flooding aren’t fully known, but they are predicted to be increasingly catastrophic as climate change worsens. Coastal populations will only grow more vulnerable to flooding without adaptive measures put in place. Increasing green infrastructure is one of the most effective methods. Adaptation measures vary widely by state and more progressive states have greater amounts of adaptive measures in place. Conservative states have a long history that results in their lack of climate policy and environmental governance.