This study employs Bayesian Hidden Markov Models as method to explore vehicle traffic flow conditions in an urban area in Stockholm, based on sensor data from separate road positions. Inter-arrival times are used as the observed sequences. These sequences of inter-arrival times are assumed to be generated from the distributions of four different (and hidden) traffic flow states; nightly free flow, free flow, mixture and congestion. The filtered and smoothed probability distributions of the hidden states and the most probable state sequences are obtained by using the forward, forward-backward and Viterbi algorithms. The No-U-Turn sampler is used to sample from the posterior distributions of all unknown parameters. The obtained results show in a satisfactory way that the Hidden Markov Models can detect different traffic flow conditions. Some of the models have problems with divergence, but the obtained results from those models still show satisfactory results. In fact, two of the models that converged seemed to overestimate the presence of congested traffic and all the models that not converged seem to do adequate estimations of the probability of being in a congested state. Since the interest of this study lies in estimating the current traffic flow condition, and not in doing parameter inference, the model choice of Bayesian Hidden Markov Models is satisfactory. Due to the unsupervised nature of the problematization of this study, it is difficult to evaluate the accuracy of the results. However, a model with simulated data and known states was also implemented, which resulted in a high classification accuracy. This indicates that the choice of Hidden Markov Models is a good model choice for estimating traffic flow conditions.

Variable groundwater quality in complex aquifer-aquitard systems presents a challenge for sustainable groundwater development. In the Lower Murrumbidgee alluvial fan of the Murray-Darling Basin in semi arid inland Australia, shallow groundwater is saline (12000 &micro S/cm) and locally contaminated by nitrate. Deep fresh aquifers (150 &micro S/cm), developed as an irrigation water supply, were thought to be protected from downwards leakage by laterally extensive aquitards. However, hydrochemical sampling, augmented by historic data, revealed that aquifer salinisation (400 to 4000 &micro S/cm) had occurred at some sites to 50 m depth since the mid 1980s. Aquitard windows, landscape depositional features at a scale of 10s to 100s of metres which are rarely detected by conventional investigations, were proposed as conduits for rapid downwards leakage in stressed systems. Intensive research was conducted at the Tubbo site where downhole geophysical logging and minimally disturbed cores were used to describe a saline clayey silt to 15m depth, an indurated clayey sand and 2 deep deposits of hard clayey silt. Fracturing was inferred by the scale dependency of aquitard permeability (Kv 10E-11 to 10E-6 m/s). Lithological variation near the surface was delineated by electrical imaging which revealed a 40m wide aquitard window beneath a veneer of smectite clay. Intensive monitoring of groundwater pressures in six piezometers (23-96 m depth) near the Tubbo irrigation bore and two other peizometers upgradient, indicated that the indurated clayey sand formed an effective hydraulic barrier but the deep silty deposits were spatially discontinuous. Groundwater samples were collected before, three times during, and after the 1998-99 irrigation season. A large, but delayed TDS increase occurred in the shallow aquifer and small pulses of saline water were sustained in the middle aquifer but shortlived in the deep aquifer. Hydrochemical and isotopic data dC-13, dH-2, dO-18, C-14 and H-3) showed the middle aquifer mixing with the deep aquifer, though retaining the signature of a palaeowater. Hydrochemical changes were accounted for with PHREEQC inverse mass balance models for the shallow aquifer. Mixing of aquifer water with 20-70% saline porewater from the upper aquitard occurred, together with ion exchange and NaCl dissolution. Based on an axisymmetric radial FEFLOW model, 5-30% of the volume pumped was accounted for by vertical leakage from the middle aquifer. Leakage from the shallow aquifer was small but significant, as it allowed high salinity water to migrate. Permeability and compressible storage measurements (Ss 10E-5 to 10E-4 /m) were used to constrain model calibration, and to show that direct mixing occurred mainly via aquitard windows at depth, and between the shallow and middle aquifers via leaky boreholes. Fracture flow and aquifer-aquitard interaction by diffusion were of secondary importance.

Federated approach for the distributed simulation of a network, is an alternative method that aims to combine existing simulation models and software together using a Run Time Infrastructure (RTI), rather than building the whole simulation from scratch. In this study, an approach that significantly reduces the inter-federate communication load in federated simulation of communication networks is proposed. Rather than communicating packet-level information among federates, characteristics of packet flows in individual federates are dynamically identified and communicated. Flow characterization is done with the Gaussian Mixtures Algorithm (GMA) using a Self Organizing Mixture Network (SOMN) technique. In simulations of a network partitioned into eight federates in space parallel manner, it is shown that significant speedups are achieved with the proposed approach without unduly compromising accuracy.

<p>Treatment wetlands play an important role in reducing nitrogen content in wastewater and agricultural run-off water. The main removal process is denitrification and the removal efficiency depends on the hydrological and microbiological features of the wetland, especially in terms of water residence times and denitrification rates. The aim of this thesis was to increase the understanding of the coupled hydrological and microbiological processes regulating the denitrification capacity. This was done by applying a broad spectrum of analyses methods, including tracer experiment, water flow modeling, denitrification rate measurements, and analyses of the microbial community structures. The tracer experiment and flow modeling revealed that the wetland design, especially the vegetation, largely can affect the water residence time distributions in wetlands. In the investigated wetland, vegetation dominated the water flow, explaining 60-80% of the variance in water residence times, whereas basin shape only explained about 10% of the variance, but also mixing phenomena significantly affected the residence times and could considerably delay solutes. Measured potential denitrification rates in the wetland exhibited significant spatial variations, and the variations were best described by concentration of nitrogen in sediments and water residence time. Analyses of the denitrifying bacteria populations indicated that a few key populations dominated and that the community diversity increased with decreasing nutrient levels and increasing water residence times. Moreover, it was found that denitrification rates in terms of Menten and first order kinetics can be evaluated by fitting a mathematical expression, considering denitrification and other nitrogen transforming processes to measured product formation in nitrate limited experiments.</p>

Les Champs Phlégréens, situés dans la métropole napolitaine (Italie du sud), forment l’une des plus grandes structures volcaniques au monde. Depuis 1950, ce complexe volcanique manifeste un regain d’activité, qui s’est amplifié au cours de la dernière décennie. Cette accélération s’exprime au travers d’une intensification de la sismicité, de la déformation du sol ainsi qu’une extension de la zone de dégazage. L’ensemble des récentes études s’accorde à dire que le système s’achemine actuellement vers un point critique, sans toutefois pouvoir préciser quand et où pourrait avoir lieu une éventuelle éruption. Cette difficulté à prédire l’état réel du système est principalement associée à la présence d’un système hydrothermal relativement développé. Aux Champs Phlégréens, il est en effet difficile de déconvoluer les signaux provenant du forçage magmatique de ceux résultant de la réponse hydrothermale. L’objectif de cette thèse est donc d’améliorer les connaissances actuelles du système hydrothermal superficiel du volcan de la Solfatara, lieu où se concentre actuellement la reprise d’activité. Pour cela, une approche multidisciplinaire a été menée en deux phases : l’imagerie géophysique du volcan puis la modélisation de son système hydrothermal.La tomographie haute-résolution de résistivité électrique 3-D du cratère a permis de reconnaître les principales formations géologiques et leurs connexions avec les structures et écoulements hydrothermaux. L’interprétation du modèle de résistivité électrique a été réalisée grâce à un ensemble de mesures superficielles complémentaires : flux de CO2, température, potentiel spontané, capacité d’échange cationique et pH du sol. Deux panaches à dominante liquide ont été identifiés : la mare de boue de la Fangaia et la fumerole de Pisciarelli. À la Fangaia, une étude conjointe des modèles de résistivité électrique et de vitesses du sous-sol (obtenues par l’INGV) établit la présence de forts gradients, à la frontière entre panache hydrothermal et zone de dégazage diffus. Au niveau du principal secteur fumerolien, le modèle de résistivité électrique et la localisation des sources acoustiques révèlent clairement l’anatomie d’une zone fumerolienne. Deux conduits séparés, saturés en gaz, alimentent les fumeroles de Bocca Grande et de Bocca Nuova, depuis un même réservoir de gaz situé à ~50 mètres de profondeur. L’intense dégazage diffus produit à proximité de ces fumeroles occasionne la condensation de vapeur. Le modèle de résistivité électrique met en évidence la circulation souterraine de cet important volume d’eau, canalisée à l’intérieur d’une zone fracturée.En utilisant l’ensemble de ces informations structurelles, un modèle thermodynamique des écoulements multiphasiques de la principale zone fumerolienne a été réalisé. Ce modèle reproduit fidèlement les observables des fumeroles : température, flux et rapport CO2/H2O. Il valide l’imagerie géophysique et confirme l’interaction entre la circulation d’eau de condensation et l’un des conduits fumeroliens. Ainsi, cette simulation explique, pour la première fois par un effet d’interaction superficiel, les différentes signatures géochimiques des deux fumeroles : Bocca Nuova et Bocca Grande. L’approche multidisciplinaire, employée dans cette thèse, constitue une nouvelle étape vers une meilleure connaissance des interactions hydrothermales. Celles-ci doivent être prise en compte dans l’objectif de réaliser des modélisations dynamiques précises permettant d’appréhender in fine l’état réel du système volcanique. / The Campi Flegrei caldera is located in the metropolitan area of Naples (Italy), and it is one of the largest volcanic systems on Earth. Since 1950, this volcanic complex shows significant unrest, which accelerated over the last decade with a rise in the seismic activity, ground deformation, and the extent of the degassing area. Recent studies indicate that the volcanic system is potentially moving toward a critical state, although their authors remain unable to point out when and where a possible eruption could take place. The difficulty of predicting the real volcanic state is here mainly related to the hydrothermal system. Indeed, at the Campi Flegrei, it is difficult to separate the magmatic input signal from the hydrothermal response. Hence, the aim of this thesis is to improve our knowledge on the shallow hydrothermal system of the Solfatara volcano, where most of the renewal activity takes place. A multidisciplinary approach has been performed in two steps: first a geophysical imagery of the volcano and second the modeling of its hydrothermal system.The 3-D electrical resistivity tomography of the crater allows to recognize the main geological units, and their connection with hydrothermal fluid flow features. The interpretation of the resistivity model has been realized thanks to numerous soil complementary measurements: CO2 flux, temperature, self-potential, Cation Exchange Capacity and pH. We identify two liquid-dominated plumes: the Fangaia mud pool and the Pisciarelli fumarole. In the Fangaia area, the comparison between electrical resistivity and velocity models reveals strong gradients related to a sharp transition at the border between the hydrothermal plume and the high diffuse degassing region. Combining electrical resistivity model with hydrothermal tremor sources localization reveal the anatomy of the main fumarolic area. Two separated conduits, gas-saturated, feed the two fumaroles Bocca Grande and Bocca Nuova. These conduits originate from the same gas reservoir located 60 m below the surface. The intense degassing activity, produced in the vicinity of fumaroles, creates large amounts of vapor condensation. The resistivity model reveals this condensate circulation, within a fractured area.All these results are incorporated into a multiphase flow model of the main fumarolic area. The simulation accurately reproduces the fumaroles observables: temperature, flux and CO2/H2O ratio. The model validates the geophysical imagery and confirms the interaction between Bocca Nuova fumarolic conduit and the condensate flow. Hence, this simulation explains for the first time the distinct geochemical signature of the two fumaroles due to a shallow water-interaction. The multidisciplinary approach performed in this thesis constitutes a new step toward a better understanding of hydrothermal interactions. Those phenomena have to be taken into account in order to perform dynamic modelling, and thus apprehend the real state of the volcanic system.

L'utilisation de chrome hexavalent comme inhibiteur de corrosion dans les revêtements protecteurs de pièces métalliques sera bientôt interdit car cet élément est considéré comme cancérigène et mutagène. L'une des stratégies proposées pour remédier à ce problème est l'incorporation de nano-réservoirs contenant des inhibiteurs de corrosion, autres que le chrome, dans une matrice de revêtement. L'approche utilisée dans ce travail est basée sur la physisorption de l'inhibiteur de corrosion sur des nano-particules chargées. C'est une approche électrochimique où un sel, l'inhibiteur de corrosion, est adsorbé sur la surface des nano-particules chargées. Après l'incorporation de nano-réservoirs chargés dans la matrice de revêtement et le dépôt du film sur le substrat, la morphologie finale, et donc l'homogénéité, du film dépend de plusieurs paramètres tels que la vitesse d'évaporation du film et les interactions entre particules. Par conséquent, il faut s'assurer que les nano-réservoirs sont dispersés de manière homogène à l'intérieur du revêtement ou être en mesure de prédire où les inhomogénéités vont se développer. Ainsi, le premier objectif de ce travail est de développer une stratégie de modélisation pour étudier l'écoulement de suspensions contenant des nano-particules dans des solutions électrolytiques. Les interactions prises en compte ici sont d'origine hydrodynamique, thermique et électrostatique. Nous montrons que dans le cas du séchage d'un film contenant des nano-particules, les interactions pertinentes sont celles d'origine thermique et électrostatique seulement. Sur la base de ce résultat, l'exemple d'un micro-évaporateur est présenté dans lequel des expériences numériques du séchage d'une suspension de nano-particules avec différentes charges de surface ont été réalisées. Sachant que les interactions entre particules sont influencées surtout par la charge et la concentration de l'électrolyte dans la suspension, il existe une réelle motivation pour étudier ces interactions dans les systèmes de nano-particules synthétisées en vue de la conception de nano-réservoirs. Par conséquent, le deuxième objectif de ce travail est de synthétiser des nano-réservoirs de boehmite, d'étudier leur stabilité dans une gamme de concentration d'inhibiteur de corrosion, et finalement de valider ce type de nano-réservoirs pour des applications de revêtements anti-corrosion. / The use of hexavalent Chromium as a corrosion inhibitor in protective coat-ings of metal parts will soon be prohibited because this element is consideredcarcinogenic and mutagenic. One of the strategies suggested to overcomethis problem is the incorporation of nano-containers containing corrosion in-hibitors, other than Chromium, inside a coating matrix. The nano-containersapproach used in this work is based on the physisorption of the corrosioninhibitor on charged nano-particles. It is an electrochemical approach wherea salt, the corrosion inhibitor, is adsorbed on the surface of the charged nano-particles. After the incorporation of the charged nano-containers in the coat-ing matrix and the deposition of the film on the substrate, the final morphol-ogy and therefore the homogeneity of the film will depend on several pa-rameters such as the evaporation rate and the interactions between particles.Consequently, one has to insure that the nano-containers are homogeneouslydispersed inside the coating matrix after the deposition, or be able to predictwhere inhomogeneities will develop. Hence, the first aim of this work is todevelop a modeling strategy to study the flow of suspensions containing in-teracting nano-particles in electrolyte solutions. The interactions taken intoaccount here are of hydrodynamic, thermal, and electrostatic origin and itis argued that in the application of film drying of nano-particles the interac-tions relevant are those of thermal and electrostatic origin only. Based onthis idea, the simulation of the drying of a suspension with nano-particles ofdifferent charges has been realized in a micro-evaporator. Considering thatparticle interactions are influenced by the charge and the electrolyte con-centration of the suspension, there is a clear motivation to study these in-teractions in a synthesized system of nano-particles, candidate in the designof nano-containers. Therefore, the second aim of this work is to synthe-size boehmite nano-containers, study their stability in a range of corrosioninhibitor concentration, and finally qualify them as candidates for the appli-cation of anti-corrosion coatings.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This study discusses the mathematical modeling of groundwater flows, and the bases for the development of a numerical model that simulates the flow in unconfined aquifers, affected by singularities like wells and interconnected streams. The main application of the model is directed to urban areas with water wells. Numerical approximations are used to estimate changes of the piezometric levels, groundwater drawdowns and water flow rates in the aquifer caused by simultaneous pumping from multiple wells. In this study, we used the finite differences method for the numerical treatment of the differential governing equation. In this context, all spatial derivatives were discretized by central differences of the second order. Two explicit schemes were used for the treatment of the temporal derivative: the first order Euler scheme, and the fourth order Adams-Bashforth scheme. Two schemes were also used to model the sinks, that is the extraction of water by the wells. The results of these two schemes are compared with a hybrid model that uses analytical solutions in small areas within the radius of influence of the wells, a numerical solution in the remaining area. As a case study, the model is applied to our area situated in the urban fabric of the city of Araguari (MG), in the area of the Bauru aquifer. The model has the potential to help future guidelines for the management of the free aquifers underlying urban areas, intending its best use, and indicating possible saturation places of exploitation. / O presente trabalho aborda a modelagem matemática do escoamento de águas subterrâneas. E os fundamentos para elaboração de um modelo numérico que simule o escoamento em aquíferos não confinados, submetidos a singularidades como poços e córregos interconectados. O modelo visa à aplicação preferencial em zonas urbanas que apresentam poços tubulares distribuídos na sua área. São utilizadas aproximações numéricas com o objetivo de estimar as mudanças nas cotas piezométricas, os rebaixamentos do lençol freático e as velocidades de escoamento da água no aquífero, ocasionadas pelo bombeamento simultâneo de múltiplos poços. Neste trabalho, utilizou-se o método de diferenças finitas para tratamento numérico da equação diferencial governante. Neste contexto, todas as derivadas espaciais foram discretizadas por diferenças centrais de segunda ordem. Dois esquemas explícitos foram utilizados para o tratamento da derivada temporal: o esquema de Euler, de primeira ordem, e o esquema de Adams- Bashforth, de quarta ordem. Também foram utilizadas duas alternativas para modelação do termo sumidouro, que representa a extração de água pelos poços. Os resultados desses dois esquemas são comparados com um modelo híbrido que utiliza soluções analíticas em áreas pequenas, dentro do raio de influência dos poços e, nas outras áreas, uma solução numérica por diferenças finitas. A área de aplicação do modelo situa-se sob a malha urbana da cidade de Araguari (MG), nos domínios do aquífero Bauru. O modelo tem potencial de auxiliar as futuras diretrizes para a gestão de aquíferos livres sotopostos a zonas urbanas, para seu melhor aproveitamento, indicando possíveis lugares de saturação de explotação. / Mestre em Engenharia Civil

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Nous considérons deux modèles EDP-EDO couplés: un pour modéliser des goulots d’étranglementmobiles et l’autre pour décrire la distribution du trafic sur une bretelle d’accès. Le premier modèle a étéintroduit pour décrire le mouvement d’un bus, qui roule à une vitesse inférieure à celle des autresvoitures, en réduisant la capacité de la route et générant ainsi un goulot d’étranglement. Une loi deconservation scalaire avec une contrainte mobile sur le flux décrit le trafic et une EDO décrit latrajectoire du bus. Nous présentons un résultat d’existence des solutions du modèle et nous proposonsune méthode numérique “front/capturing" et une méthode basée sur une technique de reconstructiondes ondes de chocs. Dans la deuxième partie, nous introduisons un nouveau modèle macroscopique dejonction pour les bretelles d’autoroute. Nous considérons le modèle de trafic de Lighthill-Whitham-Richards sur une jonction composée d’une voie principale, une bretelle d’accès et une bretelle de sortie,toutes reliées par un nœud. Une loi de conservation scalaire décrit l’évolution de la densité des véhiculessur la voie principale et une EDO décrit l’évolution de la longueur de la file d’attente sur la bretelled’accès. La définition de la solution du problème de Riemann à la jonction est basée sur la résolutiond’un problème d’optimisation linéaire et sur l’utilisation d’un paramètre de priorité. Ensuite, ce modèleest étendu aux réseaux et discrétisé en utilisant un schéma de Godunov qui prend en compte les effetsde la bretelle d’accès. Enfin, nous présentons un modèle d’optimisation de la circulation sur les ronds points. / In this thesis we consider two coupled PDE-ODE models. One to model moving bottlenecks and theother one to describe traffic flow at junctions. First, we consider a strongly coupled PDE-ODE systemthat describes the influence of a slow and large vehicle on road traffic. The model consists of a scalarconservation law accounting for the main traffic evolution, while the trajectory of the slower vehicle isgiven by an ODE depending on the downstream traffic density. The moving constraint is expressed byan inequality on the flux, which models the bottleneck created in the road by the presence of the slowerDépôt de thèse – Donnéescomplémentairesvehicle. We prove the existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem for initial data of bounded variation.Moreover, two numerical schemes are proposed. The first one is a finite volume algorithm that uses alocally nonuniform moving mesh. The second one uses a reconstruction technique to display thebehavior of the vehicle. Next, we consider the Lighthill-Whitham-Richards traffic flow model on ajunction composed by one mainline, an onramp and an offramp, which are connected by a node. Theonramp dynamics is modeled using an ordinary differential equation describing the evolution of thequeue length. The definition of the solution of the Riemann problem at the junction is based on anoptimization problem and the use of a right of way parameter. The numerical approximation is carriedout using a Godunov scheme, modified to take into account the effects of the onramp buffer. Aftersuitable modification, the model is used to solve an optimal control problem on roundabouts. Two costfunctionals are numerically optimized with respect to the right of way parameter.

Treatment wetlands play an important role in reducing nitrogen content in wastewater and agricultural run-off water. The main removal process is denitrification and the removal efficiency depends on the hydrological and microbiological features of the wetland, especially in terms of water residence times and denitrification rates. The aim of this thesis was to increase the understanding of the coupled hydrological and microbiological processes regulating the denitrification capacity. This was done by applying a broad spectrum of analyses methods, including tracer experiment, water flow modeling, denitrification rate measurements, and analyses of the microbial community structures. The tracer experiment and flow modeling revealed that the wetland design, especially the vegetation, largely can affect the water residence time distributions in wetlands. In the investigated wetland, vegetation dominated the water flow, explaining 60-80% of the variance in water residence times, whereas basin shape only explained about 10% of the variance, but also mixing phenomena significantly affected the residence times and could considerably delay solutes. Measured potential denitrification rates in the wetland exhibited significant spatial variations, and the variations were best described by concentration of nitrogen in sediments and water residence time. Analyses of the denitrifying bacteria populations indicated that a few key populations dominated and that the community diversity increased with decreasing nutrient levels and increasing water residence times. Moreover, it was found that denitrification rates in terms of Menten and first order kinetics can be evaluated by fitting a mathematical expression, considering denitrification and other nitrogen transforming processes to measured product formation in nitrate limited experiments. / QC 20101110