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An improved cross-impact modelHalverson, Troy 08 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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A mathematical model for economic aggregate forecastingMcKenna, George Patrick 08 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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Errors in Affective Forecasting: Contrasting Anticipated and Experienced Regret after Group Failure versus Individual FailureStager, Pamela 13 September 2010 (has links)
This dissertation contributes to a growing literature on affective forecasting showing that people are often inaccurate when predicting their future emotions, particularly the emotion of regret (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). In the current program of research I explored the differences in the anticipated and experienced regret of participants who worked (or imagined working) either alone or as part of a group. In Experiment One I demonstrated that participants anticipated more regret from failing a task when alone than from failing a task that when working as part of a group. I speculated that this occurs because working with a group allows one to blame others for a failure, thus reducing one’s own regret. In Experiment Two I demonstrated that although participants anticipated more regret from an individual relative to a group failure, the regret they actually experienced is equivalent in these conditions. I hypothesised that this is because the psychological immune system (Gilbert, Pinel, Wilson, Blumberg, & Wheatley, 1998) works hard to reduce the regret of the participants who worked alone to levels matching that of the participants who worked in groups. I also demonstrated that this psychological immune system takes time to reduce regret differences in levels of regret were found between participants in the group and alone conditions when participants reported their regret immediately, but when regret was reported after a delay, these differences were no longer found. In Experiment Three I ruled out a potential confound by demonstrating that the differences between Experiments One and Two were not due to participants thinking of different time frames while reporting their regret. In Experiments Four and Five I extended my program of research by investigating whether the anticipated and experienced regret that is caused by failing a task varies depending on whether one is working with in-group or out-group partners. I found that while participants anticipate more regret from failing a task with an in-group compared to an out-group partner, the regret they ultimately experience is not affected by the group status of their partner. Implications and future directions are discussed. / Thesis (Ph.D, Psychology) -- Queen's University, 2010-09-10 15:45:04.097
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A study of planetary wave errors in a spectral numerical weather prediction model /Lambert, Steven J. (Steven John) January 1977 (has links)
No description available.
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Adjustment of regional wind forecasts to the topographyAllard, Hubert January 1974 (has links)
No description available.
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Methodology of the economic base analysisRichter, Thera Holland 05 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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Humanism and anti-humanism in environmental valuesSmith, Michael Frederick January 1993 (has links)
This thesis identifies a family of humanist presuppositions which, I argue, pervade modern Western society and are partly responsible for our inability to escape from a spiral of environmental destruction. For example, humanist ethical theories frequently assume the existence of an objective / subjective divide, autonomous rational individuals and a neutral rationality. I argue that these assumptions, which are peculiar to our society, provide a wholly inappropriate basis for the expression of many environmental concerns. Humanism imposes particular taxonomies and interpretations on social and environmental relations; these facilitate the treatment of nature as a resource rather than as a part of our (ethical) community. At the theoretical level, humanism develops explicit systems of ''formal rationaiity" which purport to be neutral e.g. axiological systems like neoclassical economics and utilitarianism. However, these systems reduce environmental evaluation to the bureaucratic application of abstract methodologies and, far from being neutral, they impose a particular humanist ideology on decision making processes which marginalises those who speak in a different voice. I develop an alternative perspective; a critical theory informed by the antihumanism of Althusser, the later Wittgenstein and Bourdieu. This post-humanist theoretical problematic works in two ways. First, it explains how ideologies interpellate individuals into social structures and reproduce current social values. Second, it advocates an alternative "ecological paradigm", embedded in anti-humanist and radical traditions which would give due regard to the constitutive role of 'nature' in the formation of our moral values.
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A content analysis of Newsweek, U.S. news and world report, and Time's coverage of the 1980 presidential primaries / 1980 presidential primaries / Presidential primariesRiggs, Steven F. January 1980 (has links)
An investigation of Newsweek, U.S. News and World Report, and Time's content emphasis in articles focusing on the 1980 presidential primary season was conducted in this study. The content emphasis was broken down into four categories: "horserace," "issues," "candidates' personal qualifications," and "other." The categories of "issues" and "candidates' personal qualifications" were combined to form the "substantive" category for the purpose of learning whether the content emphasis of the articles fell into either the "horserace" or "substantive" category.The unit of analysis for this study was the paragraph and a panel of coders was used to determine paragraph classifications. If a paragraph was classified "horserace" its emphasis was entertainment, portraying the campaign as a contest. If a paragraph was classified "substantive" its emphasis was information, concentrating on the issues of the campaign and the qualifications of the candidates.The researcher totaled the raw scores and the percentages of the categories to learn which type of content emphasis was being practiced by the magazines. To substantiate the level of significance in the differences of the raw scores the chi-square test was employed.Findings of the raw score totals in the four categories indicated that 61 percent of the 327 randomly selected paragraphs were classified as having "horserace" content emphasis, 10 percent were classified "issues," 19.3 percent were classified "candidates' personal qualifications," and 9.5 percent were classified "other." The "issues" and "candidates' personal qualifications" categories were combined and represented 29.3 percent.Chi-square tests showed that there were significantly less "substantive" paragraphs than "horserace" paragraphs overall, and Time magazine's coverage was the closest in balance between the two categories.The time period of this study was January 7, 1980 through June 16, 1980. This study also found that Newsweek had the largest amount of campaign coverage with 52 stories in 24 issues; next was Time with 41 stories in 19 issues; followed by U.S. News and World Report with 24 stories about the primary campaign and candidates in 18 issues.
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Lightning polarity over soil moisture boundaries during three tornadic outbreaks (1990-95)Berry, Douglas P. January 2005 (has links)
This study presents an overview of lightning formation and the correlations seen with soil moisture slope along with potential of tornadic thunderstorms. Three moisture classes (large, marginal, small) were created using soil moisture observed during three tornado outbreaks (June-02-1990, April-26-1994, May-13-1995) over the Midwest. Chi-square, Nearest Neighbor, and Point Density calculations were performed and suggest that lightning polarity/frequency shift between soil moisture classes at a = .01. Using lightning characteristics in the thunderstorm lifecycle, one is able to evaluate relative tornadogenesis areas within moisture classes some 8-10 hours in advance. Tornadogenesis points fell within expected areas indicating that borders between marginal and small moisture classes are approximate locations of stage change (mature to dissipation) of the thunderstorm lifecycle. Results are intended to be used as a tool that helps verify situations that are more likely to be tornadic when observing real-time lightning data from thunderstorms crossing significant soil moisture boundaries. / Department of Geography
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Application of CRISSP-2D finite element modelling in predicting ice formation processes upstream of the Jenpeg Generating StationBijeljanin, Milan 26 November 2013 (has links)
The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate, and apply a CRISSP-2D river ice model for a highly complex reach of the Nelson River upstream of the Jenpeg Generating Station in northern Manitoba. The calibrated model is applied in a backcasting scenario to evaluate its potential of predicting the river ice regime associated with specific hydraulic and meteorologic conditions. Secondly, a real-time application is conducted in collaboration with Manitoba Hydro to forecast overnight ice conditions as part of the 2011 Ice Stabilization Program. The model is shown to be fully capable of predicting the onset and type of ice regime that occurs. Spatial variation in ice generation across the study region is accurately captured, including locations of thermal bridging and initial ice front advance. Several modelling limitations associated with parameterization limit model accuracy during the latter stages of freeze-up and are identified as enhancement opportunities.
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