Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Texas at Dallas, 2007. / Includes vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 78-81)

Most of the research was sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey.

abstract: Isentropic analysis is a type of analysis that is based on using the concept of potential temperatures, the adiabatically established temperature at 1000 hPa. In the 1930s and 1940s this type of analysis proved to be valuable in indicating areas of increased moisture content and locations experiencing flow up or down adiabatic surfaces. However, in the early 1950s, this type of analysis faded out of use and not until the twenty-first century have some researchers started once again to examine the usefulness of isentropic analysis. One aspect in which isentropic analysis could be practical, based on prior research, is in severe weather situations, due to its ability to easily show adiabatic motion and moisture. As a result, I analyzed monthly climatological isentropic surfaces to identify distinct patterns associated with tornado occurrences for specific regions and months across the contiguous United States. I collected tornado reports from 1974 through 2009 to create tornado regions for each month across the contiguous United States and corresponding upper air data for the same time period. I then separated these upper air data into tornado and non-tornado days for specific regions and conducted synoptic and statistical analyses to establish differences between the two. Finally, I compared those results with analyses of individual case studies for each defined region using independent data from 2009 through 2010. On tornado days distinct patterns can be identified on the isentropic surface: (1) the average isentropic surface lowered on tornado days indicating a trough across the region, (2) a corresponding increase in moisture content occurred across the tornado region, and (3) wind shifted in such a manner to produce flow up the isentropic trough indicating uplift. When comparing the climatological results with the case studies, the isentropic pattern for the case studies in general was more pronounced compared to the climatological pattern; however, this would be expected as when creating the average the pattern/conditions will be smoothed. These findings begin to bridge the large gap in literature, show the usefulness of isentropic analysis in monthly and daily use and serve as catalysts to create a finer resolution database in isentropic coordinates. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Geography 2012

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This academic discourse is a research treatise that is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters in Business Administration (MBA) degree at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU). Purpose – The purpose of this treatise is to develop four possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures over the next 40 years, i.e. towards 2055. This study will expose the possible, probable, plausible, and preferable (desirable) scenarios for Africa towards 2055. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study employs a Futures Studies methodology that is known as scenario planning. The key variables of the scenarios are clustered as follows: Good governance and good economic growth; Good governance and bad economic growth; Bad governance and bad economic growth; as well as bad governance and good economic growth. Each of these scenarios begin with the current state of affairs in Africa. As such, the four scenarios in this study are informed by the current affairs in African countries as is internationally observed by scientists, researchers, as well as global views and opinions. Practical implications – This academic discourse provides useful insight into the causality relationship between the political, economic, sociological, technological, ecological, as well as legal factors (PESTEL factors) on the continent and the possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures towards 2055. The aforementioned causality relationship between the abovementioned variables allows for insight into the drivers for change for Africa as well as in what way to anticipate these changes in accordance with scenario planning. Originality/Value: This treatise looks at the economic futures of Africa over the next 40 years from the point of view of African planners and African decision-makers.

World records in athletics capture the attention of both the general public and the academic community. Athletics records provide a wealth of quantifiable data, which represent the pinnacle of human ability at the time of the record. This research discusses modelling the progression of athletics world records using a compound distribution model which is found in actuarial statistics. Compound distributions allow for the simultaneous modelling of the frequency of record breaking and of the amount by which the record is improved at each record-breaking performance. A number of assumptions accompany the use of the compound distribution model. This research evaluates the athletics data for adherence to these assumptions, before carrying out distribution-fitting and goodnessof-fit testing. Forecasts of future performance are obtained by means of a simulation method. The forecasts obtained from the compound model are compared to forecasts obtained from non-linear models which have been proposed in literature. This research focuses on short-term forecasts, however, a modification to the compound model which allows for longer-term forecasts is also illustrated.

This PhD dissertation research primarily aims to empirically investigate into two financial topics using annual and monthly data sets of market-capitalization based size portfolio returns from the US stock market for the period 1925 to 2012. Using size-based portfolio returns is a pioneering effort for both topics. The first empirical research using annual data is on short and long horizon stock return predictability using three widely selected ratios in terms of price-output, price-earnings and price-dividend. Using univariate and multivariate predictive regressions for horizons from one year to fifteen years for the full sample and three different sub-samples for comparison reasons with the previous research using aggregate stock market data, it is reported that both short and long horizon return predictability exists albeit with different predictive ability for different horizons. Among the three selected ratios, overall the price-output ratio is empirically favoured as a superior predictor of stock returns. The empirical findings refer to that this is robust across the three sub-samples investigated. It is empirically shown that size significantly matters in terms of return predictability. The second empirical research using monthly data is on the analysis of impact of macroeconomic volatility in terms of inflation and industrial production growth on asymmetric time-varying volatility of stock returns. Using a two-stage econometric methodology, first, based on estimation of asymmetric conditional volatilities of stock returns and macroeconomic variables, and then employing a vector autoregression methodology; it is reported that volatility of size-based portfolio returns are, in general, not significantly dependent on macroeconomic volatility. It is also shown that stock return volatility is more responsive to its own previous shocks as shown by the variance decomposition. It is also found that size does not matter in this specific case.

This paper assesses the impact of earnings quality on market responses to annual earnings announcements. Earnings quality is measured by the ratio of earnings to funds from operations. The difference in the association between forecast errors and excess returns across the high/low quality earnings subsamples is found to be statistically significant; there is a greater market response to earnings announcements of high-quality firms than to low-quality firms. Hence, earnings quality as measured by the ratio of earnings to funds from operations, is found to have pricing implications. The results are robust across two regression models: OLS on returns ordered in announcement time and SUR/GLS on returns ordered in calendar time. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

A Generalized Leontief Inverse Indirect Utility Function and its estimation are discussed; a data base compatible with the requirements of the function is created, and we attempt to estimate postwar Canadian preferences (for consumption with and without the simultaneous supply of labour). The parameters of the function are estimated in a two-stage (generalized) least squares procedure due to Zellner [1961]. The empirical results indicate that the functional form behaves rather well and our estimated expenditure shares and elasticities of substitution between goods seem to conform to our theoretical expectations. / Arts, Faculty of / Vancouver School of Economics / Graduate

This thesis presents a general review of sales forecasting literature with particular attention to the preparation of the sales forecast, the pre-planning activities and the review. In addition, forecasts are developed which show the expected sales of domestic softwood plywood to be realized by the plywood industry for the years 1964 and 1968. A procedure is then presented that Crown Zellerbach Company can follow in using the industry forecast to ascertain their share of the expected softwood plywood sales. Sales forecasting is an essential prerequisite to company planning. Therefore, forecasts must be as accurate as possible because many activities within the firm are based on the sales forecasts. With the assistance of sales forecasts, vital marketing, financial and production plans ultimately emerge, together with their supporting schedules. The person responsible for the forecasting task must acquire not only a detailed understanding of company activities but also a thorough knowledge of the characteristics of a sound forecasting operation. The forecaster must be familiar with the various judgment, survey and statistical techniques available for developing forecasts and he must understand the necessity of carrying out numerous pre-performance and post-performance activities. The pre-performance activities must be dutifully carried out if the most useful forecasting method is to be chosen. Post-performance activities are equally important. A time-table for review and revision when necessary must be drawn up ahead of time if proper control is to be exercised over the forecast. A simple regression equation and three multiple regression equations are developed with the intention of using one or more of them to forecast industry softwood plywood sales for the years 1964 and 1968. The three multiple linear regression equations are rejected because each of them possesses one or more unacceptable negative constants. The simple linear regression equation has an extremely high coefficient of correlation and a small standard error of estimate. Since this equation contains these desirable features and seems to incorporate no underlying fallacy, this simple regression equation is the one chosen to forecast industry plywood sales. The share-of-market approach is used to determine the proportion of the industry sales to be captured by Crown Zellerbach Company. The total projected industry sales figures are multiplied by a percentage which represents the company's present share of the total market. The figures that result represent the anticipated plywood sales to be achieved by Crown Zellerbach Company for the years 1964 and 1968. Crown Zellerbach should not depend solely on the technique developed in this thesis for forecasting plywood sales. They should continue to use the subjective or judgment technique that they have used for a number of years, but they would follow a better course if they used one or more statistical or survey methods in addition to the present method. A final forecast could be selected after an analysis had been made of the forecasted figures developed by the various methods. / Business, Sauder School of / Marketing, Division of / Graduate