Submitted by Gustavo Quindere Saraiva (gqs007@gmail.com) on 2013-08-08T22:45:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert_Gustavo.pdf: 1205214 bytes, checksum: e7415a09177c3999bf4b562101926770 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2013-08-19T17:59:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert_Gustavo.pdf: 1205214 bytes, checksum: e7415a09177c3999bf4b562101926770 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-08-22T13:13:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert_Gustavo.pdf: 1205214 bytes, checksum: e7415a09177c3999bf4b562101926770 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-22T13:13:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert_Gustavo.pdf: 1205214 bytes, checksum: e7415a09177c3999bf4b562101926770 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-06-20 / This work consists on a survey of some papers from the literature of general equilibrium with default costs. We focus on the study of Kehoe and Levine (1993) and Alvarez and Jermann (2000) models. We also describe some adaptations of Al- varez and Jermann’s model, such as the models developed by Hellwig and Lorenzoni (2009) and Azariadis and Kaas (2008), and we compare them with Huggett’s (1993) model, where the market is exogenously incomplete. Finally, we point out one flaw present in Krueger and Perry’s (2010) algorithm to compute stationary equilibria from economies such as Alvarez and Jermann. / Neste trabalho fazemos um resumo de alguns artigos que tratam de equilíbrio geral dinâmico com custos de default. Focamos no estudo dos modelos de Kehoe e Levine (1993) e de Alvarez e Jermann (2000). Também descrevemos algumas adaptações do modelo de Alvarez e Jermann, como os trabalhos de Hellwig e Lorenzoni (2009) e de Azariadis e Kaas (2008), e comparamos os resultados desses modelos com os de Huggett (1993), no qual os mercados são exogenamente incompletos. Finalmente, expomos uma falha no algoritmo computacional sugerido por Krueger e Perry (2010) para se computar os equilíbrios estacionários de economias como as de Alvarez e Jermann (2000).

Bien que la littérature théorique et empirique étudiant les effets de l’OMC et d’une libéralisation commerciale sur les performances économiques des pays et sur le bien-être soit riche, il existe une absence de consensus quant aux liens commerce-croissance-pauvreté. Les liens ne sont ni simples, ni automatiques et requièrent d’être traités avec précaution, tout en prenant en compte les spécificités nationales et le contexte particulier de chaque pays. D’où l’attention particulière apportée à l’économie libanaise, une économie en reconstruction, caractérisée entre autres par un déficit commercial chronique et engagée depuis 1999 dans le deuxième plus long processus d’adhésion à l’OMC, qui semble loin d’être achevé. Pour examiner les impacts potentiels de l’adhésion du pays à l’OMC sur les grandeurs macroéconomiques, un modèle d’équilibre général calculable dynamique est employé, et différents scénarios sont simulés. L’analyse en équilibre général est combinée avec une analyse de micro-simulation comptable, évaluant les impacts micro-économiques sur les différentes catégories des ménages. Les résultats suggèrent que l’adhésion du pays à l’OMC entraînerait une évolution plus favorable des grandeurs macro-économiques par rapport au scénario de base (surtout lorsqu’un mécanisme d’augmentation de la productivité totale des facteurs entre en jeu). Une adhésion permettrait également une baisse de la pauvreté et des inégalités, en améliorant la situation des travailleurs non qualifiés. / Although the theoretical and empirical literature studying the effects of the WTO and trade liberalization on the economic performance of countries and the well-being is rich, it remains that there is a lack of consensus on the links trade-growth-poverty. The links are neither simple nor automatic and require to be treated with caution, and to take into account national specificities and the particular context of each country. Hence the special attention given to the Lebanese economy, characterized among others by a chronic trade deficit, and by the second longest WTO accession process, which dates from 1999 and seems far from over. To examine the impacts of Lebanon’s accession to the WTO on macroeconomic variables, a dynamic CGE model is used, and different scenarios are simulated. Using a sequential approach, the general equilibrium analysis is combined with a microsimulation analysis, evaluating the micro-economic impacts on different categories of households, poverty and inequality. The results suggest that the country's accession to the WTO leads to a more favorable economic performances compared to the baseline scenario (especially when the mechanism of the increase in total factor productivity is put into play). It also allows a reduction in poverty and inequality, by improving the situation of unskilled workers.

Globalization is the increasing world-wide integration of markets for goods, services, labor, and capital. It seems to increasingly dominate discussion on the direction of social change and representations of the world. This study is of no exception; it provides an overview on the economic aspects of globalization. It mainly focuses on economic integration, trade patterns of multinational firms and international labor movement. As part of the analysis, international labor movement is centered on the inflow of unskilled labor into host country and the effects they brings along to the welfare of local populations. Particular attention is also given to the construction sector. International trade grows rapidly along with the progress of globalization. The massive development of new communication and transportation technology has made possible for heterogeneous firms to look for optimum production allocation worldwide. There has however been massive debates among researchers on the conditions that firms decided upon when choosing the production allocation, i.e; whether to locate in one country and export to another or to locate in both countries at the same time. The study proposes a general equilibrium model in order to understand the mechanism of decision behavior of heterogeneous firms on production allocation. Apart from that, international labor movement is an important dimension of globalization and has become increasingly embedded in changes in global economic and social structures. Like the rest of the world, Malaysia is affected by globalization. The wide economic and demographic differences between Malaysia and its immediate neighbors triggered the cross-border movement of labor. The country began to rely on foreign labor, particularly unskilled labor, due to the structural changes and labor market segmentation that first emerged in the early 1970s. The unprecedented influx of these labors, following unabated high growth since the mid-1980s, raised several social, political and economic concerns. The popular perception was that foreign labors were affecting local unskilled labors, both in terms of wages and living standards. It is important to note that the vast majority of preceding discussions on the subject are from the social and political point of view. There is however lack of discussions from economic and quantitative perspective. This study endeavors to fill in these gaps and contribute to the body of knowledge. Consequently, empirical analysis is accomplished using CGE modeling on international labor movement in Malaysia. And this is the first attempt such approach is carried out thus far. / Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第14920号 / 工博第3147号 / 新制||工||1472(附属図書館) / 27358

Kyoto University (京都大学) / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第16380号 / 工博第3461号 / 新制||工||1523(附属図書館) / 29011 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 教授 岡田 憲夫, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当

Chapter 1: A Population Aging Analysis for Canada Using the National Transfer Accounts Approach: This analysis develops a new data set for Canada using an accounting methodology called National Transfer Accounts (NTA). NTA permits building an accounting system that introduces age into national accounts. NTA is consistent with the conventional national accounts and allows the estimation of lifecycle patterns for labour income and consumption from private and public sources. It also allows the calculation of per capita and aggregate lifecycle deficits (LCD) or surpluses (LCS) in an economy. In this chapter we calculate Canada’s per capita and aggregate LCD for 2006. Using demographic projections for the next five decades, we present the aggregate LCD in Canada for the period 2006 to 2056 assuming a constant per capital LCD during this time horizon. The projection results show that labour income needs to increase rapidly or consumption needs to be cut significantly to compensate for the pressure on the aggregate lifecycle deficit as a result of population aging. Chapter 2: An Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model with Age-dependent Rates of Time Preference: This analysis develops a methodology to introduce an age-dependent rate of time preference to calibrate an OLG-CGE model with per capita age profile consumption path derived from the NTA framework of Chapter 1. The results show that the economic impact from an aging population will be significant. The living standard will decline by 15% from the present to 2050 and decline by 20% by the year 2105. To reduce such a decline, the Canadian government may introduce policies that could encourage labour force participation. We analyze the impact of: a) an increase in the general labour force participation rate for age 20 to 64; b) an increase in the labour force participation rate for workers aged 50 to 64; c) late retirement. Our results suggest that maintaining the current standard of living will be extremely difficult after 2026. Nevertheless, this would help reduce the economic pressure from population aging. Chapter 3: 9/11 Security Measures and North American Security Perimeter: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: The objective of this analysis is to assess the impact of the North American Security Perimeter (NASP) on both the Canadian and the U.S. economies. The NASP is a change in Canada-U.S. security paradigm that would allow the liberalization of the post 9/11 security measures at the Canada-U.S. border. This study applies a multi-sector and multi-region general equilibrium model together with econometric analysis. After simulating the NASP, Canada’s capital market was found to become more attractive. Under the NASP, the welfare of Canada is estimated to increase by $19 billion or 1.8% of GDP, and that of the U.S. is estimated to increase by $32 billion or 0.3% of GDP.

<p>  </p> <p>This dissertation assesses three aspects of the economic implications of heat stress-related labor-capacity losses. Given that low-income countries around the tropics are at most risk, our analyses focus on these and the vulnerable households within them. First, we consider the optimal allocation of labor for small-scale agricultural households. We build an agricultural household that takes into consideration that these households will be affected by heat stress as producers, consumers, and workers simultaneously. Using this model and a sample of households from Pakistan, we determine that for most households it would be optimal to increase their supply of family labor to agricultural self-employment. However, if work preferences are also affected, even modestly, then decreased supply of family labor to agriculture would be observed. </p> <p>Next, we turn to country-level welfare losses across the globe focusing on the role of trade in mitigating or exacerbating these. We consider nine West African economies and determine which benefit from international trade, which are made worse-off, and we fully delineate the factors and channels that determine this. Broadly, we find that net exporters of agricultural commodities will benefit via global price changes, and conversely net importers will be made worse off by global price changes. However, countries that experience especially large labor capacity losses in their export sectors can also see loss-mitigating effects from trade as their export prices rise more sharply that the global average. An alternative perspective shows that some countries are affected more by their own heat stress-related productivity losses, while others are affected more due to global changes. </p> <p>Lastly, we consider the poverty impacts of heat stress-induced labor capacity losses in West Africa. Using a macro model, we determine changes in real incomes of households near poverty in seven West African countries, then use household microsimulations to determine poverty impacts. We find that poverty impacts are heterogenous in direction and magnitude across household-types and countries. In five of the seven countries, poverty headcounts increase, ranging from 1.5% in Cote d’Ivoire to 7.8% in Nigeria. In two countries, there is either little change or a decrease in poverty: in Cameroon poverty increases by 0.6% and in Guinea it decreases by 1.7%. The key channel behind this heterogeneity is how loss of labor productivity affects relative returns to factors of production. Returns to unskilled agricultural labor can increase due to increased demand for this labor to dampen losses of agricultural output. </p>

This dissertation consists of three essays studying the effects of collective household decisions on early childhood development from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. The first chapter outlines the dissertation, by presenting the motivations, methods, conclusions, and policy implications for the entire dissertation. Chapter two examines early childhood development using a collective model with children's cognitive production. We jointly estimate the home input demand with children's cognitive production functions based on a simultaneous equations model. Biases are considered that are caused by the non-random selection of time inputs and possible correlations across inputs and outcomes functions. A direct measure of time inputs relying on children's time diaries from the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID-CDS) has been constructed. We thereby relax the assumption that there is no difference between parental time spent on children and leisure. Our results show that parental time inputs, especially the active time interacting with children's daily activities, have substantial effects on both children's math and reading test scores. The time inputs vary across parents' age, race, and eduction levels. In chapter three, we conduct a standard Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to evaluate the role of home inputs in the black-white test score gaps based on the empirical model presented in chapter two. Aside from the finding that children's ability accounts for a large proportion of the differences, we find that home inputs can also explain a significant portion of the gap. When the maternal time is equalized at the average levels of white children, the racial differences in children's reading and math test scores can be closed by approximately 30%-50%. The last chapter extends a collective model with household production to the general equilibrium framework. We concentrate on the impacts of a global bargaining power shift within the household on children's cognitive achievement, especially on those who live with single mothers. The model shows that a global bargaining power change in favor of the female may not necessarily be beneficial to the children living with their single mothers. An increase of female's market equilibrium wage rate as a result of reduced labor supply by married women may induce single mothers to work longer hours, spend less time with children, and compensate them with more monetary investment compared with the case when the equilibrium wage rate stays constant. / Ph. D.

The dissertation contains essays concerning the linkages between macroeconomy and financial market or the conduct of monetary policy via DSGE modelling. The dissertation contributes to the questions of fitting macroeconomic models to the data, and so contributes to our understanding of the driving forces of fluctuations in macroeconomic and financial variables. Chapter one offers an introduction to my thesis and outlines in detail the main results and methodologies. In Chapter two I introduce a statistical measure for model evaluation and selection based on the full information of sample second moments in data. A model is said to outperform its counterpart if it produces closer similarity in simulated data variance-covariance matrix when compared with the actual data. The "distance method" is generally feasible and simple to conduct. A flexible price two-sector open economy model is studied to match the observed puzzles of international finance data. The statistical distance approach favours a model with dominant role played by the expectational errors in foreign exchange market which breaks the international interest rate parity. Chapter three applies the distance approach to a New Keynesian model augmented with habit formation and backward-looking component of pricing behaviour. A macro-finance model of yield curve is developed to showcase the dynamics of implied forward yields. This exercise, with the distance approach, reiterate the inability of macro model in explaining yield curve dynamics. The method also reveals remarkable interconnection between real quantity and bond yield slope. In Chapter four I study a general equilibrium business cycle model with sticky prices and labour market rigidities. With costly matching on labour market, output responds in a hump-shaped and persistent manner to monetary shocks and the resulting Phillips curve seems to radically change the scope for monetary policy because (i) there are speed limit effects for policy and (ii) there is a cost channel for monetary policy. Labour reforms such as in mid-1980s UK can trigger more effective monetary policy. Research on monetary policy shall pay greater attention to output when labour market adjustments are persistent. Chapter five analyzes the link between money and financial spread, which is oft missed in specification of monetary policy making analysis. When liquidity provision by banks dominates the demand for money from the real economy, money may contain information of future output and inflation due to its impact on financial spreads. I use a sign-restriction Bayesian VAR estimation to separate the liquidity provision impact from money market equilibrium. The decomposition exercise shows supply shocks dominate the money-price nexus in the short to medium term. It also uncovers distinctive policy stance of two central banks. Finally Chapter six concludes, providing a brief summary of the research work as well as a discussion of potential limitations and possible directions for future research.

We investigate the practical use of Taylor-type rules in Trinidad and Tobago, which is in the process of implementing market based monetary policy and seeks to implement flexible inflation targeting in the presence of a managed exchange rate. This is motivated by the idea that normative Taylor rules can be shaped by the practical experience of developing countries. We find that the inflation – exchange rate nexus is strong, hence the country may be unwilling to allow the exchange rate to float freely. We contend that despite weak market development the Taylor rule can still be applied as the central bank is able to use moral suasion to achieve full pass through of the policy rate to the market rate. Our evidence rejects Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) argument that the optimal monetary policy rule for the open economy is isomorphic for a closed economy. Rather, our evidence suggests that the rule for the open economy allows for lower variability when the rule is augmented by the real exchange rate as in Taylor (2001). We also reject Galí and Monacelli’s (2005) hypothesis that domestic inflation is optimal for inclusion in the Taylor-type rule. Instead we find that core CPI inflation leads to lower variability. Additionally, our evidence suggests that the monetary rule, when applied to Trinidad and Tobago, is accommodating to the US Federal Reserve rate. Further, we expand the work of Martin and Milas (2010) which considered the pass through of the policy rate to the interbank rate in the presence of risk and liquidity. By extending the transmission to the market lending rate, we are able to go beyond those disruptive factors by considering excess liquidity and spillovers of international economic disturbances. We found that these shocks are significant for Trinidad and Tobago, but it is not significant enough to disrupt the pass through. As a result, full pass through was robust to the presence of these disruptive factors.

DSGE models are as structural models capable of estimating what would have happened if some part of economy or shocks to it had been different. We consider three such differences in the recent Czech history: no financial shocks during the crisis in 2008-2009; eurozone membership during the crisis in 2008-2009; and no foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank in November 2013. For this purpose, we employ a small open economy DSGE model with financial frictions and estimate it with Bayesian inference. Our results show that impact of financial shocks on GDP growth was negligible. Further, eurozone membership would have made crisis more severe; GDP growth in 2009Q1 would have been -6% instead of -3% and economy would have been in deflation for the five consecutive periods. Difference is explained by strong depreciation of exchange rate during crisis that would not have occurred with the fixed exchange rate. Lastly, the Czech National Banks's foreign exchange interventions increased GDP growth by as much as 0.8 percentage point and saved economy from deflation in all following quarters. They worked through depreciation of exchange rate and consequent improvement in trade balance and increase in price of imported goods. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)