Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2017-04-17T19:16:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Alícia Cechin_.pdf: 515927 bytes, checksum: 0cbde681385e2cdfaa91d02496e274b7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-17T19:16:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alícia Cechin_.pdf: 515927 bytes, checksum: 0cbde681385e2cdfaa91d02496e274b7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-16 / CNPQ – Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / O aumento dos Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APCs) tem modificado o cenário do comércio internacional. No caso brasileiro, o país se mostra relativamente isolado no cenário das negociações comerciais preferenciais, não possuindo um conjunto de acordos comerciais importantes com parceiros extra-regionais. Nesse sentido, o estudo busca examinar através de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável (GTAP), os efeitos que a criação de APCs com importantes parceiros comerciais do Brasil teria sobre variáveis-chave para a economia, especialmente bem-estar e comércio internacional. Além das reduções das tarifas de importação, o trabalho também explorou os efeitos da redução das barreiras não-tarifárias (BNTs). Os impactos da formação de acordos de livre comércio geralmente se concentram naqueles setores mais protegidos antes da criação do bloco. Nas simulações realizadas neste trabalho, isso também se observou. Os resultados mostraram um aumento expressivo nas exportações de produtos primários e de baixa intensidade tecnológica, quando simulada a redução parcial e plena das tarifas de importação, no entanto quando simula-se além da redução das tarifas de importação a redução das BNTs, verifica-se que o sistema produtivo brasileiro pode ser afetado de diferente forma. Com a redução plena de tarifas e BNTs, as exportações brasileiras de setores de maior conteúdo tecnológico seriam as mais beneficiadas, enquanto a liberalização parcial das BNTs, além de reduzir a magnitude das exportações em todos os acordos, iria estimular mais setores de menor conteúdo tecnológico em vários acordos. No que se refere ao ganho de bem-estar, verifica-se o mesmo comportamento das exportações, mas quando ocorre a redução das BNTs, o maior ganho de bem-estar é obtido em setores de maior intensidade tecnológica. / The increase in the PTAs (Preferential Trade Agreements) has modified the international trade scenario, in the case of Brazil, the country appears to be relatively isolated in the context of trade negotiations, lacking a set of important trade agreements with extra-regional partners. In this sense, the study seeks to examine, through a computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), the effects that the creation of PTAs with important trade partners of Brazil would have on key variables for the economy, especially welfare and trade International. In addition to the reduction of import tariffs, the work also explored the effects of reducing non-tariff barriers (NTBs). The impacts of forming free trade agreements generally focus on those sectors most protected before the bloc was created. In the simulations performed in this work, this was also observed. The results show a significant increase in exports of primary products and low technological intensity, when simulated the partial and full reduction of import tariffs, however, when the reduction of NTBs is allowed in addition to the reduction of import tariffs, it is verified that the Brazilian productive sector can be affected differently. With the full reduction of tariffs and NTBs, Brazilian exports of sectors with higher technological content would be the most benefited, while the partial liberalization of NTBs, besides reducing the magnitude of exports in all agreements, would stimulate more sectors of lower technological content in most agreements. With regard to welfare gains, the same behavior of exports is observed, when reduction of NTBs occur, the greatest welfare gain is obtained in sectors of higher technological intensity.

La TVA est une taxe ad valorem facturée par les entreprises à leurs clients mais dont seule la différence entre la taxe collectée par l’entreprise et celle qu’elle a supportée sur ses achats est reversée à l’ Etat. Selon ce mécanisme, la TVA repose uniquement sur la consommation finale et semble adaptée aux principes d’une taxe indirecte optimale pour la maximisation du bien-être collectif. Cependant, dans les PED, la taille de l’assiette, les problèmes de remboursement des crédits de TVA et le non assujettissement de certains producteurs, modifient le fonctionnement de la taxe. Afin d’appréhender l’impact de la TVA dans les PED avec un nouveau regard, les effets de la taxe sur l’allocation des ressources et la distribution des revenus sont étudiés à l’aide d’un Modèle d’ Equilibre Général Calculable ad hoc appliquée à des problématiques spécifiques au Niger et au Sénégal. Les résultats des simulations montrent que l’analyse de l’impact de la TVA ne peut pas se contenter d’un discours commun, ni du point de vue du consommateur, ni de celui du producteur. / In theory, VAT has always been considered as a consumption tax (Lauré, 1957). Liable producers transfer to the government the difference between the VAT collected on sales and the VAT paid on their inputs. VAT is therefore a tax on final consumption born by the consumer and collected by the producer. With tax abatement principle, VAT seems adapted to the principals of an optimal indirect tax for the maximization of the collective wellbeing. However, if VAT exemptions are implemented or if the tax administration is inefficient in issuing refunds for VAT credits or simply due to non-liable producers, VAT increases producer’s tax burden and viewing the VAT only as a consumption tax becomes inaccurate. In order to take into account these complexities, we built the first Computable General Equilibrium Model in order to shed some light on resources allocation and income distributions of the tax in Niger and Senegal. Simulation results show that an analysis of the VAT’s impact cannot rely only on a common line, neither from the consumer’s nor the producer’s point of view.

This thesis develops a new structure that explicitly combines two CGE models, a national and a regional, in an integrated structure that gives the thesis model the name IRES, in short for the Integrated Regional Equation System. The typical features of the integrated structure are the adding-up conditions and the two-way linkages between the national and the regional modules facilitated by the interface shifters. The adding-up conditions ensure the two modules produce consistent results and updated databases. The inclusion of the interface shifters on the one hand plays a role in ensuring compatibility of results of the two modules, i.e. no distortion occurs because technical or taste changes are transferred across modules. On the other hand, the interface shifters assist the operation of IRES in different modes: the model can be used as a top-down model, a bottom-up model or an integrated model where national and regional shocks can be introduced at the same time. Hence, IRES has more flexibility in its application than a regional model or a national model alone, as IRES can make use of availability of data at any levels in the economy. IRES has a new labour market in which regional migration is no longer the only factor that settles the labour market as in the original setting of the MMRF model. Regional unemployment and regional participation rates are modelled to response to changes in regional employment growth using elasticities estimated econometrically in this thesis. IRES implements historical patterns of regional migration so that results of regional migration are consistent with observed patterns. Altogether, regional migration, regional unemployment and participation rates determine the equilibrium of the labour market. IRES adopts new approaches to modelling margin demands and indirect taxes. These new approaches are very effective in reducing the size of IRES but they do not compromise the use of the model. These approaches are readily applicable to any other regional CGE models.

Dieses Buch umfaßt die Darstellung der traditionellen und modernen mikroökonomischen Theorie; es enthält Modelle der grundlegenden ökonomischen Einheiten: Konsumenten, Produzenten und Märkte. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird dabei dem Oligopol zuteil, der typischen Marktform der modernen industriellen Welt. Ferner enthält das Buch Abschnitte zur Allgemeinen Gleichgewichtstheorie und zur Wohlfahrtstheorie. / This book includes the presentation of traditional and modern microeconomic theory; it contains models of the basic economic units: consumers, producers and markets. Particular attention will be given the oligopoly, the typical form of the modern industrial world market. Furthermore, the book contains sections on general equilibrium theory and welfare theory.

This thesis concerns both static and dynamic modeling in a spatial computable general equilibrium setting. First, we have applied a static framework for the assessment of economic impacts of the Öresund bridge. Secondly, we make an attempt to enhance the static framework through the introduction of economic dynamics. Third, we introduce the STRAGO model, incorporating monopolistic competition, dynamics and additive transport costs. STRAGO is applied to the analysis of effects from a kilometer tax on freight. The last paper presents a framework for studying the division, or fragmentation of production. This framework uses the standard theory of monopolistic competition, with a production chain extension, through a recursive view of markets. The optimal level of fragmentation in such industries is studied. / QC 20100811

In the study a class of multisector network models, suitable for simulation of the interaction between production, demand, trade, and infrastructure, is presented. A characteristic feature of the class is a vintage model of the production system. Hence, the rigidities in existing capacities and the temporary monopolies obtainable from investments in new capacity at favourable locations are emphasized.As special cases, the class contains models in the modelling traditions of "interregional computable general equilibriunT, Hspatial price equilibrium**, "interregional input-output" and transportation networks.On the demand side, a multihousehold spatial linear expenditure system is introduced. This allows for an endogenous representation of income effects of skill-differentiated labour.The models are represented by a set of complementarity problems. This facilitates a comparison of model properties and the choice of an appropriate solution algorithm.The study is mainly devoted to single period models. Such equilibrium models are interpreted as adiabatic approximations of processes in continuous time. A separation by the time scale of the processes and an application of the slaving principle should thus govern the choice of endogenous variables in the equilibrium formulation. / digitalisering@umu

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The four essays included in this dissertation are in the field of open economy Macroeconomics. Essays I, II and IV deal with a work-horse model in this field – a two-sector small open economy growth model with traded and nontraded goods. Writing down such a model requires an assumption about the role of traded and nontraded goods in domestic consumption and investments. While several empirical studies have looked at the consumption side, a systematic examination of the role of traded and nontraded goods in investments is missing. Essay I aims to fill this gap. Drawing on extensive empirical evidence, we show that aggregate investment expenditure shares on traded and nontraded goods are very similar in rich and poor countries. Furthermore, the two expenditure shares have remained close to constant over time, with the average nontraded expenditure share varying between 0.54-0.60 over the 1960-2002 period. Combined with the fact that the relative price of nontraded goods correlates positively with income and exhibits large differences across space and time, our findings suggest that investment can be modeled using the Cobb-Douglas aggregator. The results of this essay offer a new restriction for the two-sector growth model, which can alter the conclusions drawn from the model. To demonstrate this, we apply the new restriction to a study by Hsieh and Klenow (2003), which argues that differences in relative productivity between traded and nontraded sectors, i.e., the Balassa-Samuelson effect, is the main cause of higher PPP-adjusted investment rates in rich countries. With the restriction imposed on the model, no more than 25 percent of the differences in PPP-adjusted investment rates between rich and poor counties can be attributed to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. In Essays II and IV the same two-sector growth model is put to the test using the recent economic developments in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Essay II investigates whether the two-sector growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic countries. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995-2001 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. According to the model, trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010. Essay IV starts by summarizing empirical regularities for the key aggregate real sector variables in the eight countries that joined the EU in May 2004. It is shown that, following the reforms in the early 1990s, real sector developments in all eight countries exhibit remarkable similarities. Interestingly, this is the case despite the fact that different reform policies were pursued in several dimensions (e.g., privatization, nominal exchange rate). Next, we show that a calibrated two-sector small open economy growth model can account for most of the real sector adjustments in early post-reform years. Empirical studies have found rapid traded sector productivity growth in Central and Eastern European countries over the last decade. When traded sector productivity growth is added to the model, it captures the development in all key real sector variables during the post-reform period. Finally, Essay III contributes to the study of financial crises in emerging markets. In contrast to the other essays, this paper develops a highly stylized theoretical model that allows us to study analytically government response to financial crises. In particular, Essay III develops a framework for analyzing optimal government bailout policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where financial crises are exogenous. Important elements of the model are that private borrowers internalize only part of the social cost of foreign borrowing in the emerging market and that the private sector is illiquid in the event of a crisis. The distinguishing feature of our paper is that it addresses the optimal bailout policy in an environment where there are both costs and benefits of bailouts, and where bailout guarantees potentially distort investment decisions in the private sector. We show that it is always optimal to commit to a bailout policy that only partially protects investment against inefficient liquidation, both in a centralized economy and a market economy. Due to overinvestment in the market economy, the government's optimal level of bailout guarantees is lower than in the social optimum. Further, we show that, in contrast to a social planner, the government in the market economy should optimally bail out a smaller fraction of private investments when the probability of a crisis is higher. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005 S. i-x: sammanfattning, s. 1-187: 4 uppsatser