Dans le présent travail de recherche, nous proposons d’analyser principalement l’effet direct et indirect du changement climatique sur la production agricole et la croissance économique. Pour ce faire, la voie méthodologique retenue dans cette thèse est une voie empirique, s’appuyant à la fois sur l’économétrie spatiale, la technique de cointégration sur données de panel ainsi que le modèle d’équilibre général dynamique multisectoriel / The aim of this research is to analysis both direct and indirect effect of the climate change on the agricultural production and the economic growth. This PhD research we will be based on an empirical methodology, through applying a spacial econometrics and the cointegration technique of a panel data as well as a multisectoral general equilibrium growth model. The first part is devoted to find the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in a macro spatial level during the period 1980-2012. The main gaol of this first chapter of this PhD is to determine the direct and indirect effect of the weather forecast and the temperature changes in one region compared to the neighbouring regions. The originality of this spacial modelisation is to give an effective spacial effect. The second part of this research is aimed to use a micro spacial analysis to find out the effect of the climate change on the agricultural production in the long term way and for each region rather then all of them together as in the first chapter. In the last part of this PhD research we developed a general and dynamic equilibrium model for the Tunisian economy taking in a count eventual climate change forcast from 2015 to 2030. Aiming to calculate the effect of this change on the agricultural production and the economic aggregate in Tunisa. The resulats show that the climate change forecast in the futur will affect the agricultural production in Tunisia in both the short run and the long term and this is because of the irrigated and non irrigated plantations. The decrease of the production will affect the food industry which will decrease the level of the investment, the employment in this sector as well as the consumption.

<div>This thesis has three major chapters. Structural estimation of non-homothetic demands is the element that is the most common across the three papers in which structural parameters from the data.<br></div><div><br></div><div><b>First Chapter</b>: Preference structures in applied general equilibrium models are commonly in favor of the family of linear expenditure system (LES) due to the desire for global regularity and applicability, while other emerging preference functions include the constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) forms that are used as sub-utility functions to fulfil regularity conditions with additional flexibilities. Hanoch (1975) introduces indirect, implicit additive relationships—a generalization of the CES—to obtain more flexible demand relationships that are globally regular. These preference relationships unlink substitution effects from income effects in ways that go beyond relaxation of homotheticity, and are more flexible than their direct dual. However, the estimation of these models as demand systems has proven to be challenging, and most published work in this area has focused on estimation approaches that involve approximations or that cannot fully identify parameter values in the preference relationships. Essay one introduces a direct approach which avoids approximations and allows parameters to be identified. We demonstrate the estimation using the readily accessible Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the confidential World Bank (International Comparison Program) databases, estimating the constant difference of elasticity or CDE directly in a maximum likelihood framework. In doing this, we show that the global regularity conditions stated in Hanoch (1975) can be slightly relaxed, and that the relaxed parametric conditions facilitate estimation. We introduce a normalization scheme that is beneficial for the scaling of the parameter values and which appears to have little impact on the economic performance of the estimated system. We develop a numerical test that justifies the normalization scheme. The series of procedures developed in this paper applied to this empirical example is generalized to solve many other econometric problems of general demand models of the Bergson family and those that are under-identified using reduced-form approaches. </div><div><br></div><div><b>Second Chapter</b>: This paper presents a general equilibrium gravity model of trade based on the constant difference of elasticities of substitution preferences. Hanoch (1975) illustrates these preferences' advantages in terms of parsimony and flexibility. This paper introduces a parsimonious, non-homothetic and globally well-behaved demand model into the gravity model that both separates substitution effects from income effects and has non-constant substitution elasticities. These features of the demand model---together with the structural estimation procedure devised in this paper---allow nesting several prominent theoretical motivations for the gravity model, and exploring the merits of this more general model. They also allow identification of the elasticity of trade costs with respect to distance and asymmetric border coefficients from the elasticity of trade flows with respect to trade costs. Most previous studies cannot separately identify these structural parameters. </div><div><br></div><div><b>Third Chapter</b>: The primary advantage of structural approaches to estimating the gravity model of trade is that they allow a transparent mapping of regression coefficients to structural parameters. Unfortunately, as shown in essay two, existing structural estimation methods are unable to separately identify trade costs and the trade elasticity without incorporating external data. We demonstrate that theoretical structure is alone sufficient for identifying all of the structural parameters of the canonical constant elasticity of substitution (CES) gravity model. We accomplish this by adopting an implicitly indirect representation of utility and estimating structurally using a mathematical program with equilibrium constraints. Our estimate of the elasticity of substitution is much smaller than in much of the rest of the literature, an outcome that we attribute to Pigou's Law, which ties income and substitution elasticities together in demand systems that assume additive preferences. This restriction is undesirable in demand systems, generally, and is a critical weakness for the canonical gravity model, a model that is commonly used to interpret the geographic trade pattern and to infer the welfare gains from trade. We demonstrate a non-homothetic CES model that both achieves identification and relaxes this restriction. Our counterfactual results based on the model suggest that the combination of a lower elasticity and lower trade costs generate a larger welfare change due to border removal compared to the CES model.<br></div>

<p>This dissertation examines the impact of the expansion of renewable technology at both national and local level, through distinct essays. At the national level, the first paper analyzes the effects of economic and distributional impacts of climate mitigation policy, in the context of a developing country, to understand the interactions between the energy system and the macroeconomic environment. In the case of the local level, the second paper uses synthetic control method, to estimate the effect at the county level of utility scale wind in the development indicators for two counties in the U.S. </p> <p>The first paper assesses the economic and distributional impacts of Nicaragua’s commitments to limit future greenhouse gas emissions in the context of the Paris Agreement, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The analysis relies on two distinct models. The first is a top-down approach based on a single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, known as the Mitigation, Adaptation and New Technologies Applied General Equilibrium (MANAGE) Model. The second is a bottom-up approach based on the Open-Source energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), which is technology rich energy model. The combined model is calibrated to an updated social accounting matrix for Nicaragua, which disaggregates households into 20 representative types: 10 rural and 10 urban households. For the household disaggregation we have used information from the 2014 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) for Nicaragua. Our analysis focuses on the distributional impacts of meeting the NDCs as well as additional scenarios—in a dynamic framework as the MANAGE model is a (recursive) dynamic model. The results show that a carbon tax has greatest potential for reduction in emissions, with modest impact in macro variables. An expansion of the renewable sources in the electricity matrix also leads to significant reduction in emissions. Only a carbon tax achieves a reduction in emissions consistent with keeping global warming below 2°C. Nicaragua’s NDC alone would not achieve the target and mitigation instruments are needed. An expansion of generation from renewable sources, does not lead to a scenario consistent with a 2°C pathway. </p> <p>The second paper measures the impact of wind generation on county level outcomes through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). SCM avoids the pitfalls of other methods such as input-output models and project level case studies that do not provide county level estimates. We find that the local per capita income effect of utility wind scale is 6 percent (translate into an increase of $1,511 in per capita income for 2019) for Benton County and 8 percent for White county in Indiana (an increase of $2,100 in per capita income for 2019). The per capita income effect measures the average impact, which includes the gains in rents from capital, land, and labor from wind power in these counties. Moreover, we find that most of the rents from wind power accrue to the owners of capital and labor. Even assuming the lowest projections of electricity prices and the highest reasonable cost we still find a 10 percent minimum rate of return to capital for both Benton and White counties’ wind power generators. Furthermore, we find that there are excess rents that could be taxed and redistributed at the county, state, or federal level without disincentivizing investment in wind power.</p>

En économie, l'analyse de la concurrence entre les firmes est d'une importance capitale. Cette thèse examine les interactions stratégiques sur les marchés différenciés en équilibre général tout en proposant les politiques publiques à mettre en œuvre afin de réduire les distorsions dues aux comportements imparfaits des firmes. La thèse prend en compte la différenciation des produits afin d'aboutir à de nouvelles conclusions ou d'étendre celles existantes et mises en avant dans la littérature. Elle vise ainsi, principalement deux objectifs. En premier lieu, la construction d'un modèle de concurrence imparfaite sur les marchés différenciés et ceci dans un cadre d'analyse en équilibre général. En second lieu, l'évaluation des conséquences du modèle en termes de politiques économiques. Les travaux ont débuté par une revue de littérature où sont abordés successivement les mécanismes de prix dans les jeux stratégiques de marché, les concepts de différenciation des produits et les modèles de théorie des jeux traitant des interactions stratégiques en équilibre général afin de modéliser les comportements imparfaitement concurrentiels. Le chapitre 2 a ainsi conduit au concept d'équilibre Cournot-Walras symétrique sur les marchés différenciés. Pour prendre en compte la différenciation des produits, il est affecté à chaque agent économique un vecteur fini de coefficients de différenciation qui exprime la préférence de l'agent pour la diversité. A la suite du modèle de différenciation, le chapitre 3 propose des mécanismes de politiques fiscales afin de réguler les pertes dues aux comportements imparfaits des firmes. Des exemples illustrent que le modèle de différenciation admet un équilibre trivial qui est nice et les prix et les allocations de l'équilibre Cournot-Walras symétrique sur produit différencié, sous certaines conditions, convergent vers l'équilibre walrasien. / In economy, the competition analysis among firms have a significance importance because of the complexity of some elements. This thesis examines the strategic interactions on differentiated markets in general equilibrium while proposing the public policies to reduce the distortions due to the imperfect behaviors. This thesis takes into account the differentiation of products in order to obtain the new conclusions and/or to extend those existing. We thus pursues two objectives. Fisrt, the construction of a model of imperfect competition on differentiated markets in a general equilibrium framework. Second, the evaluation of the consequences of the model in terms of economic policies. At beginning, we use literature review to tackle successively price mechanisms in strategic market games, product differentiation concepts and game theory models dealing with strategic interactions in order to model imperfect behaviors. This led in chapter 2 to the symmetric Cournot-Walras equilibrium concept on differentiated markets where we assign to each economic agent a finite vector of differentiation coefficients which expresses the agent's love for diversity. Following the differentiation model, chapter 3 offers tax policy mechanisms to control losses due to perfect behavior of firms. From the analysis, it appears that some examples illustrate that the differentiation model admits a trivial equilibrium which is nice and the price and allocations of symmetrical Cournot-Walras equilibrium on differentiated product, under certain conditions, converge towards the Walrasian ones.

L'appel croissant à la mise en œuvre d'une politique climatique ambitieuse et globale devrait détério-rer les perspectives économiques des pays dépendants du pétrole. Cette thèse étudie les impacts économiques de cette transition bas-carbone ainsi que les stratégies d'atténuation possibles pour le premier exportateur de pétrole: le Royaume d'Arabie Saoudite (AS). Nous proposons une applica-tion utilisant un modèle intégré économie-énergie-environnement qui prend en compte les spécifici-tés de l’économie saoudienne comme l’ancrage de son taux de change ou encore les prix d’énergies administrés.Premièrement, en utilisant une représentation agrégée de l’économie saoudienne, nous montrons qu’un prix du pétrole plus faible résultant de la transition bas-carbone mondiale résulte en un taux de croissance marginalement bas, des excédents commerciaux significativement réduits et à un chô-mage plus élevé. Nous analysons la portée des outils dont dispose l’AS pour atténuer les impacts des politiques climatiques sur son économie. Nous estimons que l'alignement des prix de l'énergie saou-diens sur les références internationales ainsi que l’augmentation des gains d'efficacité énergétique fournissent à l’AS des sources de revenus supplémentaires. Ce cadre de modélisation permet de tes-ter des scénarios prospectifs tout en contrôlant leurs spécifications macroéconomiques.Ensuite, nous mettons en perspective ces spécifications dans un cadre multisectoriel afin d'étudier les stratégies de diversification émanant des contributions prévues déterminées au niveau national (INDC) ainsi que son programme stratégique Vision 2030. Nous concluons que la diversification économique dans les secteurs à faible intensité énergétique (industrie manufacturière, tourisme et services financiers) en augmentant les exportations et la substitution des importations, en plus de réformer l'impôt sur les sociétés offre une perspective positive par rapport à une expansion continue des industries à forte intensité énergétique (minéraux, pétrochimie et ciment). En effet, nous mon-trons que la diversification dans les secteurs à faible intensité énergétique génère une croissance plus forte et un chômage plus faible. En outre, dans le cadre de ce scénario de diversification écono-mique, l’AS dépasse ses engagements climatiques en termes de réduction des émissions de CO2. Néanmoins, l’expansion des secteurs à forte intensité énergétique résulte en une meilleure perspec-tive de la dette publique puisque le gouvernement tire des revenus plus élevés de ses participations dans les industries lourdes. Enfin, nous concluons que dans nos deux scénarios, l’AS n’atteint que partiellement ses ambitions de transition vers une économie moins dépendante du pétrole dans le cadre du programme Vision 2030, ce qui suggère que de nouvelles réformes doivent être envisagées.Cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur l’implémentation d’une politique climatique et ses consé-quences économiques pour les pays exportateurs pétrole. Notre travail fournit des estimations sur les réformes économiques à entreprendre comme stratégies d'atténuation et pourrait donc être adapté pour couvrir d'autres pays et sources d’énergie. / The increasing call for implementing a global and ambitious climate policy is expected to deteriorate economic outlook of oil-dependent countries. Our research work investigates the impact of this global low-carbon transition and the potential mitigation strategies for the largest oil exporter: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). We propose an application using an integrated economy-energy-environment modelling framework taking into account salient features of the Saudi economy such as the currency peg and the regulated domestic energy prices.First, using an aggregated representation of the KSA economy, we show that a weaker oil price re-sulting from the global low-carbon transition is associated with a marginally lower growth, large trade surplus accumulation loss, and higher unemployment for the KSA. We analyse what scope the KSA has to mitigate climate policy impacts. We reveal that aligning domestic energy prices with international references and achieving energy efficiency gains increases economic efficiency while improving public budget prospects. This modelling framework allows to investigate scenarios while controlling the modelling macroeconomic specifications.We refine these outlooks in a mulstisector framework that further allows investigating diversifica-tion opportunities within the Saudi Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and its Vision 2030 program. We conclude that economic diversification into non energy-intensive sectors (manufacture, tourism, and financial services) through increasing exports and import substitution, in addition to targeting fiscal adjustments of the corporate tax, provide a positive outlook compared with a continuous expansion of energy-intensive activities (minerals, petrochemical, and cement). Indeed, we show that diversification in non-energy intensive sector generates higher growth, and lower unemployment. In addition, under our designed economic diversification plan, the KSA ex-ceeds its climate pledges in terms of targeted CO2 abatement. Nevertheless, the continuous expan-sion of energy-intensive industries is associated with a better outlook for the public debt since the government derives higher revenues from its participation in energy-intensive industries. Finally, we conclude that in our two scenarios, the KSA only partially succeeds in its transition toward a less oil-dependent economy as part of the Vision 2030 program, suggesting that further reforms are to be considered.This thesis contributes to the literature on climate policy implementation and associated economic consequences for fossil-fuel exporters. It provides insights on economic reforms as mitigation strate-gies and could be thus adapted to cover additional countries and fuels.

The loss of international competitiveness of domestic industries remains a key obstacle to the implementation of effective carbon prices in a world without harmonized climate policies. We analyze countries' non-cooperative choices of emissions taxes under imperfect competition and mobile polluting firms. In our general equilibrium setup with trade, wage effects prevent all firms from locating in the same country. While under local or no pollution countries achieve the first-best, under transboundary pollution taxes are inefficiently low and lower than under autarky where only the `standard' free-riding incentive distorts emissions taxes. This effect is more pronounced when polluting firms are mobile.

In this paper, we analyse the effects of a unilateral change in an emissions tax in a model of international trade with heterogeneous firms. We find a positive effect of tighter environmental policy on average productivity in the reforming country through reallocation of labour towards exporting firms. Domestic aggregate emissions fall, due to both a scale and a technique effect, but we show that the reduction in emissions following the tax increase is smaller than in autarky. Moreover, general equilibrium effects through changes in the foreign wage rate lead to a reduction in foreign emissions and, hence, to negative emissions leakage in case of transboundary pollution.

No description available.

[pt] Esta tese é constituída de três ensaios relacionando crédito bancário à transmissão da política monetária no Brasil. O primeiro ensaio desenvolve um modelo dinâmico estocástico de equilíbrio geral representando a influência do crédito direcionado na transmissão de política monetárial. O modelo é uma versão modificada do modelo de acelerador financeiro introduzido por Bernanke et al. (1999), ao qual é acrescentado um banco de desenvolvimento cuja política de concessão de crédito é determinada pelo governo. O modelo é calibrado de forma a reproduzir características da economia brasileira, e comparam-se equilíbrios em que o banco central e a autoridade monetária atuam de formas cooperativa e não-cooperativa. Os resultados sugerem capacidade limitada de interferência do banco de desenvolvimento sobre a atuação do banco central. O segundo ensaio testou a existência de um canal de balanços contábeis da transmissão de política monetária no Brasil, usando dados desagregados de crédito para capital de giro, entre 2003 e 2010. Utilizando o tamanho da firma, a classificação de risco e as taxas de juros de seus empréstimos como indicadores de grau de acesso da empresa ao crédito, procurou-se verificar se as empresas menores e com histórico de crédito mais caro e arriscado sofrem retração maior no seu volume de crédito em momentos de retraçãoo econômica e/ou elevação de taxas de juros. Para isolar os efeitos do canal de balanços da influência do canal de empréstimos bancários, testes foram feitos isoladamente para cada um dos 15 maiores bancos brasileiros. Estimações através de modelos de regressão linear e probit não apontaram evidência significativa da presença do canal de balanços contábeis. O terceiro ensaio busca verificar se o nível de capital bancário afeta a transmissão da política monetária no Brasil, via canal de empréstimos. Estima-se, utilizando dados bancários mensais referentes ao período de dez/2000 a mai/2008, se os volumes de concessão de crédito de bancos muito e pouco capitalizados respondem de forma diferente a variações da Selic, e testa-se se os bancos pouco capitalizados respondem de forma assimétrica a aumentos e reduções na Selic. Estimações em painel usando medidas distintas de capitalização não encontram evidências significativas destes efeitos. / [en] This PhD thesis comprises three essays on the influence of the bank credit market on monetary policy transmission in Brazil. The first essay introduces a state development bank in a stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a financial accelerator as introduced by Bernanke et al. (1999). The development bank follows a simple linear rule defined according to government goals, instead of the competitive setup applied to the commercial banks. We calibrate the model to reproduce features of the Brazilian economy, and simulate different equilibrium situations involving cooperation or non-cooperation between central bank and development bank. We find that, in both cases, under reasonable restrictions on the scope of development bank actions, the development bank has some influence on macroeconomic stabilization, although small. The second essay tests the presence of a balance sheet channel of monetary policy transmission, using disaggregated data on working capital loans in Brazil, from 2003 to 2010. In order to identify financially constrained firms, we use firm size and the interest rates and risk classification of their previous loans. We perform linear and probit regressions to assess whether smaller and riskier firms present comparatively more pronounced declines on their bank loans following interest rate increases or GDP declines. In order to isolate the balance sheet channel from the bank lending channel, the statistical tests were performed separately on loan data from fifteen banks among the largest in Brazil. The results do not find statistically significant evidence of the balance sheet channel. The third essay examines empirically whether the level of bank capitalization has some influence on monetary policy transmission through a bank lending channel. We use a monthly bank data sample from December 2000 to May 2008 to assess whether the amount of credit supplied by poorly and well capitalized banks react differently to variations of the interest rate, and whether the reaction of poorly capitalized banks to interest rates is asymmetric. Panel data estimations using two different measures of bank capitalization do not find statistically significant evidence of these effects of bank capital on credit supply.

Ce travail propose une mise en perspective des pratiques de modélisation macroéconomique,depuis les travaux de Robert E. Lucas dans les années 1970 jusqu’aux contributions actuelles de l’approche dite d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE). Cette mise en perspective permet de caractériser l’essor des modèles DSGE comme un compromis entre conceptions antagonistes de la modélisation : d’une part, celle de l’approche des cycles réels (RBC) et, d’autre part, celle de la nouvelle économie keynésienne. Pour justifier cette opposition, ce travail propose une reconstruction épistémologique de l’histoire récente de la macroéconomie, à savoir une analyse des différents critères qui définissent la validité et la pertinence d’un modèle. L’hypothèse de travail est qu’on peut identifier, pour chaque pratique de modélisation,trois critères méthodologiques fondamentaux : la validité interne (l’adéquation des hypothèses d’un modèle aux concepts aux formalismes d’une théorie), la validité externe(l’adéquation des hypothèses et/ou des résultats d’un modèle au monde réel, et les procédés quantitatifs pour évaluer cette adéquation) et le critère de hiérarchie (la préférence pour la validité interne sur la validité externe, ou vice versa). Cette grille de lecture, inspirée de la littérature sur les modèles en philosophie des sciences, permet d’apporter quatre contributions originales à l’histoire de la macroéconomie récente. (1) Elle permet de concevoir l’essor des modèles DSGE sans faire appel à l’explication proposée par l’historiographie produite par les macroéconomistes eux-mêmes,à savoir l’existence d’un consensus et d’un progrès technique exogène. Contre cette vision de l’histoire en termes de progrès scientifique, nous mettons en avant les oppositions méthodologiques au sein de la macroéconomie et nous illustrons l’interdépendance entre activité théorique et développement des méthodes statistiques et économétriques. (2) La thèse s’attaque au cloisonnement entre histoire des théories macroéconomiques et histoire des méthodes quantitatives. Grâce à sa perspective méthodologique, ce travail permet d’opérer la jonction entre ces deux littératures et de développer les bases d’une vision globale des transformations récentes de la macroéconomie. (3) La relecture méthodologique de l’histoire de la modélisation permet de mettre en évidence comment la condition de validité externe a représenté le principal point de clivage entre différentes conceptions de la modélisation. La question de la validité externe apparaît par ailleurs intrinsèquement liée à la question de l’explication causale des phénomènes, sur laquelle repose largement la justification de la modélisation comme outil d’expertise des politiques économiques. (4) Ce travail aboutit à une caractérisation originale de l’approche DSGE : loin de constituer une «synthèse» ou un consensus, cette approche s’apparente à un compromis, fragilisé par l’antagonisme méthodologique entre ses parties prenantes. / This dissertation provides a history of macroeconomic modeling practices from RobertE. Lucas’s works in the 1970s up to today’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. Working from a historical perspective, I suggest that the recent rise of DSGE models should be characterized as a compromise between opposing views of modeling methodology—on the one hand, the real business cycle (RBC) view, on the other hand, the new Keynesian view. In order to justify this claim, my work provides an epistemological reconstruction of the recent history of macroeconomics, building from ananalysis of the criteria defining the validity and the pertinence of a model. My assumption is that recent macroeconomic modeling practices can be described by three distinctive methodological criteria : the internal validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between models’ assumptions and concepts and formalisms of a theory), the external validity criterion (which establishes the consistency between the assumptions and results of a model and the real world, as well as the quantitative methods needed to assess such a consistency) and the hierarchization criterion (which establishes the preference for internal over external validity, or vice versa). This epistemological reconstruction draws primarily from the literature about models in the philosophy of science. My work aims to make four contributions to the history of recent macroeconomics. (1) To understand the rise of DSGE models without referring to the explanation providedby the macroeconomists themselves, who tend to think that macroeconomics evolved through theoretical consensus and exogenous technical progress. By distancing itself fromthis perspective, my work draws attention to the disruptive character of methodological controversies and to the interdependence between theoretical activity and the developmentof statistical and econometric methods. (2) To overcome the existing divide betweenthe history of macroeconomic theories and the history of quantitative methods. Throughits epistemological perspective, my work reconciles these two historiographies and specifiesthe basis for a comprehensive understanding of recent developments in macroeconomics.(3) To put the accent on the external validity condition as the main controversial issue separating different views of macro-modeling methodology. Furthermore, I illustrate how the debate about external validity is closely related to the problem of casual explanation and, finally, to the conditions for providing economic policy evaluation. (4) To characterize the DSGE approach: although DSGE models are often presented as a“synthesis”, or as a “consensus”, they are better described as a shaky compromise between two opposing methodological visions.