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Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.<p><p>The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.<p><p>This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:<p><p>1.\ / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Sous l’angle des controverses économiques et environnementales autour des hydrocarbures non conventionnels, cette thèse contribue au développement des outils de la modélisation intégrée sous deux aspects : leur capacité à représenter la dynamique de long terme des marchés de l’énergie ; la prise en compte des liens entre l’économie et la dynamique des différents gaz à effet de serre.Dans le premier cas, un jeu de simulations avec le modèle Imaclim-R met en évidence les impacts économiques du gaz et pétrole de schiste à travers (i) les liens entre trajectoires de crois-sance et inerties techniques ; (ii) la conditionnalité des gains de compétitivité des États-Unis aux stratégies implicites ou explicites de ce pays en matière de spécialisation internationale et de régime de change. Au détour de ces simulations nous étudions (α) les processus d’ajustement vers l’équilibre de long terme, en regardant les conditions d’obtention et de convergence des équilibres temporaires du modèle ; (β) les limites de tractabilitéd’une maquette stylisée du modèle reproduisant les mécanismes centraux.Dans le deuxième cas est traitée la question du rôle du méthane à court et long terme dans les stratégies climatiques. L’intégration du modèle réduit du système terrestre Oscar2.2 aumodèle Imaclim-R permet d’apprécier le rôle du méthane dans les coûts de l’atténuation et d’évaluer le risque d’émissions fugitives en tête de puits de gaz de schiste. Les simulations montrent que d’une part, l’avantage économique de la disponibilité en gaz de schiste peut être nuancé au regard du coût induit par ces émissions fugitives. D’autre part, les stratégies climatiques ambitieuses visant à limiter les augmentations de température bien en deçà de 2° voir 1.5°C nécessitent un contrôle plus immédiat des émissions de méthane. / From the perspective of economic and environmental controversies over unconventional oil and gas resources, this thesis contributes to the development of integrated modelling tools intwo aspects : their ability to reflect the long-term dynamics of energy markets ; and the consideration of the links between the economy and the dynamics of the various greenhouse gases.In the first case, a set of simulations with the Imaclim-R model highlights the economic impacts of shale gas and light tight oil through (i) the links between growth paths and technicalinertia ; (ii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on implicit or explained strategies ; and (iii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on this country implicit or explicit strategies in terms of international specialization and exchange rate regime. In the course of these simulations, we study (α) the adjustment processes towards the long-term equilibrium, looking at the conditions of existence and convergence of the model temporary equilibria ; (β) the tractability limits of a stylized model of Imaclim-R reproducing the main mechanisms.In the second case, the question of the role of methane in short and long term climate strategies is addressed. The integration of the Oscar2.2 Earth System model into the Imaclim-Rmodel is used to assess the role of methane in terms of mitigation costs and to assess the risk of emissions leakage at shale gas wellheads. The simulations show that, on the one hand, theeconomic advantage of shale gas availability can be balanced against the costs induced by these emissions leakage. On the other hand, the ambitous climate strategies aiming at limitingtemperature increases well below 2° or 1.5°C require a more instant control of methane.

<h2><br></h2> <p>This dissertation consists of distinct but related essays that delve into the impacts of changing economic conditions and climate mitigation policies on household consumption, health, and welfare outcomes. The first essay examines the effect of variations in economic factors, such as home values, on unhealthy consumption behaviors in the U.S. The second essay examines the distributional effects and possible health advantages of climate mitigation policies in India. The findings in this dissertation have significant implications for preventive health and environmental justice policies, particularly concerning vulnerable populations. </p> <p>The first essay of this dissertation investigates the impact of home value fluctuations on household tobacco and alcohol consumption in the U.S., specifically focusing on consumption based on homeownership status. First, we utilize high-frequency household transaction panel data and ZIP code-level home values to estimate the causal effect of home value fluctuations (or the housing wealth effect) on household tobacco and alcohol consumption for all U.S. households. Second, we predict household homeownership status by supplementing our primary household panel transaction data with a secondary household survey dataset; this allowed us to estimate the housing wealth effect separately for homeowners and renters. Home values are a leading economic indicator and effectively represent variation in housing wealth, whereas prior literature mainly focuses on lagging economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate. Housing wealth is a significant component of household net worth in the U.S. We leverage temporal and geographic fluctuations in household transactions and local home values to show that changes in housing wealth have a causal effect on household tobacco and alcohol consumption. Our findings show that declining home values increase tobacco and alcohol consumption among homeowners, with no effect on renters. Beer and cigarettes mainly drive this effect. Declining home values substantially increase annual consumption of nicotine, tar, carbon monoxide, and alcohol by volume, exacerbating public health concerns. In contrast, unemployment shocks increase tobacco and alcohol consumption among homeowners and decrease it among renters. The housing wealth effect is most pronounced among bubble states households, heavy-use consumers, low-income, and white households. The study emphasizes the importance of targeted policy interventions to mitigate the negative effects of fluctuations in housing wealth on unhealthy consumption, especially amid the current unpredictable economic environment and volatile real estate market. </p> <p>The second essay of this dissertation analyzes the distributional impacts of climate mitigation policies consistent with India’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution and 2070 net-zero target, using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with heterogeneous Indian households. Specifically, we expand the CGE model to incorporate ten rural and ten urban household income deciles. Additionally, we link the CGE model with a global atmospheric source-receptor model to derive health co-benefits from reduced premature mortality due to lower air pollution. Several policy levers are considered in this study, including carbon pricing, enhanced coal consumption tax (or coal cess), and fossil subsidies phaseout. These are further combined with five alternative revenue recycling options. Our results suggest the potential welfare costs of such mitigation policies are rather moderate and do not exceed 0.5% over 2023-2050, not accounting for health and environmental co-benefits and damages avoided by successfully limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C. However, health co-benefits from lower air pollution can potentially outweigh the mitigation costs. Combining carbon pricing and fossil subsidy removal is more efficient than carbon pricing alone, generating progressive medium-term welfare gains due to reduced market distortions. Raising coal cess rates is the least efficient policy. Inequality and distributional impacts vary significantly based on the chosen revenue recycling approach. Equal transfer of tax revenue across households proves to be the most efficient and equitable, followed by labor tax subsidies, leading to a Gini index and S20/S80 ratio reduction of 0.01%-1.7% and 0.1%-7%, respectively. Recycling revenues to stimulate green energy investments yields the least favorable distributional impacts and worsens inequality. Trade-offs exist between reducing inequality and fostering investment-driven economic growth when choosing revenue recycling options. Policymakers should prioritize policy mixes and revenue-recycling methods based on their objectives to effectively combat climate change while promoting sustainable growth and reducing income inequality in India. </p>

本文的研究目的為，在一個含有房屋及房屋相關貸款的動態隨機一般均衡模型的架構中，比較貨幣政策、財政政策以及總體審慎政策對於房屋價格及房屋相關貸款的穩定效果。本文建構一個經濟封閉體系，其中包含三種不同家計單位、商品生產部門、房屋建商、資本生產部門，並且由政府部門制定相關政策；此模型的特色為，不同家計單位中的借貸行為、名目價格僵固性以及透過房屋價格抵押貸款的限制來刻劃金融摩擦。我們考慮了一般緊縮貨幣政策、提高財產稅率以及緊縮貸款價值比；本文發現，在三種政策中，對於抑制房屋價格以及降低住房貸款對國內生產毛額的比例，財政政策及總體審慎政策比起緊縮貨幣政策擁有較好的效果。 / The main purpose in this paper is to compare the effect of monetary policy, fiscal policy and macroprudential policy on housing price and housing related loans using a micro-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with housing and housing related loans. We equip a closed economy model with three types of infinitely-lived households (patient households, impatient households and renters), a goods firm, housing and capital producer and a government sector. The model features borrowing and lending between patient and impatient households, nominal rigidity in goods price and financial friction in the form of collateral constraints tied to price of house. We consider the contractionary monetary policy by raising the interest rate, fiscal policy by increasing property tax rate and the macroprudential policy through tightening the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. We find that among these three policies, in terms of dampening the price of housing and lowering the loan-to-GDP ratio, raising the property tax and lowering the LTV ratio outperforms the contractionary monetary policy.

本論文目的在於探討「異質期望」(heterogeneous expectations)、「資訊密度」(information arrival intensity)、以及「跳躍風險」(jump risk) 這些因素對於期貨價格的影響，並且透由「跨期模型」(intertemporal models) 的建立，推導出具有封閉解形式的期貨價格理論公式。 誠如 Harrison and Kreps (1978) 所言：除非所有市場參與者的行為方式完全相同、而且他們都打算抱著股票直到永遠，否則「投機交易」(speculation transactions) 與「異質期望」就不可能自市場當中滅絕。有鑑於此，本論文在第二章中討論「異質期望」對於期貨價格的影響；同時為了反映交易者看法可能會隨時間演進而發生改變的可能性，「調整效果」(adjustment effects) 是本章另一個討論重點；第三、為了區別期貨契約與遠期契約的基本差異，「利率」這個隨機因子也被納入模型當中。由「部分均衡」(partial equilibrium) 觀點下具有封閉解形式的期貨價格公式來觀察，這三個重要因素以及彼此間存在著的複雜交互作用，可以協助解釋一些實證現象與重要變數之間的關係。 第三章主要是借用Clark (1973) 與Chang et al. (1988) 「資訊時間」(information time) 的概念，取代一般模型所使用的「日曆時間」(calendar time) 設定方法，並且額外納入「利率」與「便利所得」(convenience yield) 這兩個廣為一般期貨定價文獻所認定的重要隨機因素，推導出「部分均衡」觀點下的期貨價格封閉解。根據1998/7/21 至 2003/12/31 台灣期交所「台灣證券交易所總加權股價指數期貨」的實證結果來看，本章模型的定價績效不僅勝過「持有成本模型」(the cost of carry model)，也比同時考慮「利率」與「便利所得」兩個隨機因子的「日曆時間」模型要來的好。 第四章則是嘗試結合Hemler and Longstaff (1991) 的「無偏好模型」(preference-free model) 以及Merton (1976) 的「跳躍」(jumps) 設定，重新推導「一般均衡」(general equilibrium) 模型下、考慮「跳躍風險」(jump risk) 後的期貨價格封閉解。根據本章各種比較靜態與模擬分析的結果顯示，整個經濟體系或是「狀態變數」(state variables) 的安定程度，決定了市場變數間的關係；另一方面，這些關聯會因為「跳躍風險」規模的遞增 — 不管是肇因於「發生機率」(occurring probability) 或是「衝擊效果」(impulse effect) — 而變的更加不可預測。 / The dissertation contains three essays on intertemporal futures pricing models allowing for heterogeneous expectations, information-time based setting, and jump risk. As Harrison and Kreps (1978) have noted, unless traders are all identical and obliged to hold a stock forever, speculation would not extinguish in market, and heterogeneity in expectations yields whereby. The first essay develops intertemporal futures pricing formulas accounting for such reality, adjustment effect, and stochastic interest rate in a partial-equilibrium sense. The closed-form solutions show that the three factors complicated with each others can help to explain some existing empirics on relationships between futures prices and other important market variables such as indeterminate converging pattern. The second essay extends Chang et al. (1988) option pricing model to derive futures prices with information-time based processes. Stochastic interest rate and convenience yield are also taken into account to derive closed-form formulas. According to empirical results of transaction data of TAIEX index and its corresponding TFETX futures contract through 1998/7/21 to 2003/12/31, the analytic solution performs better than the cost of carry model and its calendar-time based counterpart, especially when information arrival intensity estimates become larger. The last essay combines Hemler and Longstaff’s (1991) preference-free model and Merton’s (1976) jump setting to measure effects from jump risk and a futures pricing formula is derived in its closed-form as well. According to miscellaneous comparative static and simulation results, the bounded degrees of state variables, or economy, affect co-varying extents among variables, while the increasing jump risk, including the size of occurring probability and its corresponding impulse effect, makes them un-tractable.

中央銀行政策透明度影響總體經濟的議題在近日漸受重視。以美國為例，2008年房貸嚴重違約，高順位債權受到波及，使多數金融業產生營運危機，讓聯邦準備銀行 (Fed) 政策執行受到關注。晚近貨幣當局的政策透明度漸受重視。貨幣政策應如何選定才能使總體經濟達到較高的社會福利？Cukierman在2002年指出中央銀行的透明度低易造成較高的物價膨脹。本研究以動態一般性均衡模型 (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) ，建構新凱因斯小型開放總體模型。模型內含一定程度的價格僵固，並且擁有前瞻預期 (forward looking) 及後顧預期 (backward looking) 兩種型態的廠商存在其中。再採用貝氏方法估計台灣在該模型所應採用的參數後，並嘗試對體系內多個部門投入衝擊，然後檢視央行的政策透明度對總體經濟的影響，同時驗證是否支持Cukierman的結論。本研究印證Cukierman的結論，發現央行在操作貨幣政策面臨兩難時，不應採取透明度低的政策法則，而應優先針對物價的不穩定做出因應對策。 / Recently, people pay attention to central bank’s policy transparency, and most countries’ central banks have accepted the suggestion made by the Bank for International Settlements to adopt transparent monetary policy. Cukierman (2002) concluded that if the central bank’s policy was not transparency, it would cause higher inflation. The thesis will utilizes dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with New Keynesian concept proposed by Gali and Monacelli (2005) to analyze the effects of transparent monetary policy and to classify the macroeconomic different effects between transparent and hazy monetary policy. The conclusions support that higher monetary policy transparency will reduce social welfare loss, lower the volatility of inflation and output gap.

Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs. / This thesis is a collection of three papers in macroeconomics and public finance. It develops Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models with a special focus on financial frictions to analyze the effects of changes in corporate tax policy on firm level and macroeconomic aggregates. Chapter 1 develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with a representative firm to assess the short-run effects of changes in the timing of corporate profit taxes. First, it extends the Ricardian equivalence result to an environment with production and establishes that a temporary corporate profit tax cut financed by future tax-increase has no real effect when the tax is lump sum and capital markets are perfect. Second, I assess how strong the ricardian forces are in the presence of financing frictions. I find that when equity issuance is costly, and when the firm faces a lower bound on dividend payments, a temporary tax cut reduces temporary the marginal cost of investment and implies positive marginal propensity of investment. Third, I analyze how do the intertemporal substitution effects of tax cuts interact with the stimulative effects when tax is not lump-sum. The results show that when tax is proportional to corporate profit, the expectations of high future tax rates reduce the expected marginal return on investment and mitigate the stimulative effects of tax cuts. The net investment response depends on the relative strength of each effect. Chapter 2 is co-authored with Rui Castro. In this paper, we quantify how effective temporary corporate tax cuts are in stimulating investment and output via relaxation of financing frictions. In fact, policymakers often rely on temporary corporate tax cuts in order to provide incentives for business investment in recession times. A common motivation is that such policies help relax financing frictions, which might bind more during recessions. We assess whether this mechanism is effective. In an industry equilibrium model where some firms are financially constrained, marginal propensities to invest are high. We consider a transitory corporate tax cut, funded by public debt. By increasing current cash flows, corporate tax cuts are effective at stimulating current investment. On impact, aggregate investment increases by 26 cents per dollar of tax stimulus, and aggregate output by 3.5 cents. The stimulative output effects are long-lived, extending past the period the policy is reversed, leading to a cumulative effect multiplier on output of 7.2 cents. A major factor preventing larger effects is that this policy tends to significantly crowd out investment among the larger, unconstrained firms. Chapter 3 studies the effects of the 1992's U.S. Treasury Department proposal of a Comprehensive Business Income Tax (CBIT) reform. According to the U.S. tax code, dividend and capital gain are taxed at the firm level and further taxed when distributed to shareholders. This double taxation may reduce the overall return on investment and induce inefficient capital allocation. Therefore, tax reforms have been at the center of numerous debates among economists and policymakers. As part of this debate, the U.S. Department of Treasury proposed in 1992 to abolish dividend and capital gain taxes, and to use a Comprehensive Business Income Tax (CBIT) to levy tax on corporate income. In this paper, I use an industry equilibrium model where firms are subject to financing frictions, and idiosyncratic productivity and entry/exit shocks to assess the long run effects of the CBIT. I find that the elimination of the capital gain and dividend taxes is not self financing. More precisely, the corporate profit tax rate should be increased from 34\% to 42\% to keep the reform revenue-neutral. Overall, the results show that the CBIT reform reduces capital accumulation and output by 8\% and 1\%, respectively. However, it improves capital allocation by 20\%, resulting in an increase in aggregate productivity by 1.41\% and in a modest welfare gain.

Cette thèse analyse le rôle de l’apprentissage dans deux cadres de modélisation distincts. Dans le cas dunouveau modèle canonique avec apprentissage adaptatif, les caractéristiques les plus marquantes des dynamiquesd’apprentissage concernent la capacité des règles de politique monétaire à assurer la convergencevers l’équilibre en anticipations rationnelles. Le mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire estcelui de l’effet de substitution associé au canal de la consommation. Dans le cas d’un modèle multi-agentsqui relâche des hypothèses restrictives du nouveau modèle canonique, tout en restant structurellementproche de celui-ci, les variables agrégées évoluent à bonne distance de cet équilibre, et on observe desdynamiques nettement différentes. La politique monétaire influence les variables agrégées de manièremarginale via l’effet de revenu du canal de la consommation. En présence d’un processus d’apprentissagesocial évolutionnaire, l’économie converge vers un faible niveau d’activité économique. L’introductiond’un processus caractérisé par le fait que les agents apprennent individuellement à l’aide de leurs modèlesmentaux atténue le caractère dépressif des dynamiques d’apprentissage. Ces différences entre les deuxcadres de modélisation démontrent la difficulté de généraliser les résultats du nouveau modèle canonique. / This thesis analyses the role of learning in two different modelling frameworks. In the new canonicalmodel with adaptive learning, the most remarkable characteristics of the learning dynamics deal withthe capacity of monetary policy rules to guaranty convergence to the rational expectations equilibrium.The transmission mechanism of the monetary policy is based on the substitution effect associated to theconsumption channel. In the case of an agent-based model which relaxes some restrictive assumptionsof the new canonical model - but is endowed with a similar structure - aggregate variables evolve atsome distance from the rational expectations equilibrium. Monetary policy has a marginal impact onthe agregated variables via the wealth effect of the consumption channel. When agents learn accordingto an evolutionnary social learning process, the economy converges to regions of low economic activity.The introduction of a process where agents learn individually by using their mental models induces lessdepressive learning dynamics. These differences between the two modelling frameworks show that thegeneralisation of the results of the new canonical model is not easy to achieve.

Der Austausch von Waren, Dienstleistungen und Arbeitskräften wird im Falle von politischen Konflikten gestört. Im Palästinensisch-Israelischen Konflikt macht die Machtasymmetrie die palästinensische Wirtschaft abhängig von Israels Politik. Obwohl dieser Konflikt wegen seiner Gewalt und seinen politischen Entwicklungen in den Medien viel beachtet wird, wurden politische Optionen in den Bereichen Handel und Arbeitsmärkte und deren Auswirkungen auf die palästinensische Ökonomie bislang wenig untersucht und bewertet. Dies ist das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit, die sich auf die Ökonomie des Westjordanlands konzentriert. Diese Arbeit macht vier Beiträge zur Wissenschaft: Der erste ist die Entwicklung der ersten Sozialrechnungsmatrix für das Westjordanland. Der zweite ist die empirische Analyse von Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Arbeitsmarktbedingungen in Gleichgewichtsmodellen. Der dritte ist die Anwendung einer verschachtelten Nutzen-Funktion, die die Vorteile von linearen Ausgabesystemen und konstanter Elastizität von Substitutionsfunktionen kombiniert. Schließlich hat diese Arbeit wichtige politische Implikationen für die Palästinensischen Autonomiebehörde (PA). In Bezug auf die Arbeitsmärkte wird gezeigt, dass es für die PA sinnvoll ist eine verstärkte palästinensische Beschäftigung in Israel anzustreben. Dabei sollten die negative Auswirkungen von aus Israel zufließendem Arbeitseinkommen („Holländische Krankheit“) gelindert werden. Dies könnte die PA durch Besteuerung von palästinensischer Beschäftigung in Israel und Schaffung von Anreizen zur Erhöhung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit erreichen. In Bezug auf den Handel zeigt diese Arbeit, dass das die PA eine liberale, nicht diskriminierende Handelspolitik verfolgen sollte. Da Israel auch in Zukunft wohl der dominierende Handelspartner für das Westjordanland bleiben wird, sollte die PA die freiest mögliche Mobilität von Gütern und Dienstleistung zwischen dem Westjordanland und Israel anstreben. / The movement of goods, services and labour is disrupted when conflicts arise. In the case of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the asymmetry of power between the two parties leaves the Palestinian economy vulnerable to policies implemented by Israel. While this conflict attracts considerable media attention for its violence and political developments, the assessment of the economy-wide implications of trade and labour market policy options on the Palestinian economy is understudied. Exploring these implications is the objective of this thesis, focusing on the West Bank economy. This thesis makes four contributions to science. The first original contribution is the development of the first social accounting matrix for the West Bank. Second, this thesis contributes to the current state of knowledge by assessing empirically the implications of different labour market conditions in general equilibrium models. Third, this thesis contributes to model development by adopting a nested utility function combining the benefits of linear expenditure systems and constant elasticity of substitution functions to depict household preferences. Finally, this thesis has important policy implications for the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). Seen the limited development options in the West Bank, it is interesting for the PNA to seek an increased Palestinian employment in Israel in order to improve the welfare of Palestinian households. Meanwhile, the “Dutch disease” effects of labour income inflow from Israel can be mitigated by collecting a tax on Palestinians employed in Israel and incentivising the private sector to invest and create employment opportunities in the domestic market. With respect to trade, this thesis finds that the West Bank would be better off with a liberal and non-discriminatory trade policy. As Israel will remain the main trade partner for the West Bank, the PNA should seek the freest possible movement of goods and services between the West Bank and Israel.