Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.

Univ., Diss.--Bonn, 2002. / Enth. 3 Beitr.

Submitted by Diego Gomes (diego.gomes@gmail.com) on 2016-04-26T18:23:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis_Diego Braz Pereira Gomes.pdf: 1441990 bytes, checksum: eaa77253b29a0fe0108cafc8657d9327 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2016-05-09T12:55:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis_Diego Braz Pereira Gomes.pdf: 1441990 bytes, checksum: eaa77253b29a0fe0108cafc8657d9327 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2016-05-09T12:55:18Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis_Diego Braz Pereira Gomes.pdf: 1441990 bytes, checksum: eaa77253b29a0fe0108cafc8657d9327 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-09T12:56:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Thesis_Diego Braz Pereira Gomes.pdf: 1441990 bytes, checksum: eaa77253b29a0fe0108cafc8657d9327 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-01-13 / This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models. / Esta tese contém três capítulos. O primeiro capítulo usa um modelo de equilíbrio geral para simular e comparar os efeitos de longo prazo do Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) e de reduções de custos de saúde sobre variáveis macroeconômicas, orçamento do governo e bem-estar dos indivíduos. Nós encontramos que todas as políticas foram capazes de reduzir a população sem seguro, com o PPACA sendo mais eficaz do que reduções de custos. O PPACA aumentou o déficit público, principalmente devido à expansão do Medicaid, forçando aumento de impostos. Por outro lado, as reduções de custos aliviaram os encargos fiscais com seguro público, reduzindo o déficit público e impostos. Com relação aos efeitos de bem-estar, o PPACA como um todo e as reduções de custos melhoram o bem-estar dos indivíduos. Elevados ganhos de bem-estar seriam alcançados se os custos médicos norte-americanos seguissem a mesma tendência dos países da OCDE. Além disso, reduções de custos melhoram mais o bem-estar do que a maioria dos componentes do PPACA, provando ser uma boa alternativa. O segundo capítulo documenta que modelos de equilíbrio geral com ciclo de vida e agentes heterogêneos possuem muita dificuldade em reproduzir a distribuição de riqueza Americana. Uma hipótese comum feita nesta literatura é que todos os jovens adultos entram na economia sem ativos iniciais. Neste capítulo, nós relaxamos essa hipótese – não suportada pelos dados – e avaliamos a capacidade de um modelo de ciclo de vida padrão em explicar a desigualdade de riqueza dos EUA. A nova característica do modelo é que os agentes entram na economia com ativos sorteados de uma distribuição inicial de ativos. Nós encontramos que a heterogeneidade em relação à riqueza inicial é chave para esta classe de modelos replicar os dados. De acordo com nossos resultados, a desigualdade Americana pode ser explicada quase que inteiramente pelo fato de que alguns indivíduos têm sorte de nascer com riqueza, enquanto outros nascem com pouco ou nenhum ativo. O terceiro capítulo documenta que uma hipótese comum adotada em modelos de equilíbrio geral com ciclo de vida é de que a população é estável no estado estacionário, ou seja, sua distribuição relativa de idades se torna constante ao longo do tempo. Uma questão em aberto é se as hipóteses demográficas comumente adotadas nesses modelos de fato implicam que a população se torna estável. Neste capítulo nós provamos a existência de uma população estável em um ambiente demográfico onde tanto as taxas de mortalidade por idade e a taxa de crescimento da população são constantes ao longo do tempo, a configuração comumente adotada em modelos de equilíbrio geral com ciclo de vida. Portanto, a estabilidade da população não precisa ser tomada como hipótese nestes modelos.

Submitted by EDUARDO JUNQUEIRA (el.junqueira@gmail.com) on 2017-03-16T19:43:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067579 bytes, checksum: 2f2d79aa0d4477ddd1f2d990cee8ff01 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Eduardo, Por gentileza, somente retirar a página em branco que consta antes da ficha catalográfica. Aguardo. on 2017-03-16T22:27:48Z (GMT) / Submitted by EDUARDO JUNQUEIRA (el.junqueira@gmail.com) on 2017-03-17T13:42:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2017-03-17T15:26:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-17T15:44:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-14 / This paper aims to understand the economic effect for Brazil and its ability to join Global Value Chains (GVC) when implementing the actions proposed in the Bali package, which intend to increase port efficiency (Trade Facilitations Agreement – TFA). Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE model from GTAP), it was estimated that the actions would bring economic benefits worldwide, including to Brazil. In addition, the agreement would increase the competitiveness across the globe, which in turn would result in a rise of economic integration of regions in GVC, measured by the vertical specialization metric VS and VS1. The major effects to Brazil would come from VS1 metric, mainly because of the increase of manufacturing activities which focus on primary factors such as skilled labor and capital. / Este estudo pretende entender os efeitos que a implementação das ações propostas no acordo de facilitação do comércio de Bali produziriam no desenvolvimento econômico do Brasil e na sua inserção em cadeias globais de valor. Utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, foi simulado a implementação do acordo e conclui-se que o mesmo traria benefícios econômicos para todas as regiões estudadas, incluindo o Brasil. Ao mesmo tempo, o acordo aumentaria a competividade global entre as regiões, produzindo uma maior integração econômica mensurada por meio do aumento das métricas de especialização vertical VS e VS1. Os maiores efeitos ao Brasil ocorrem pelo aumento da métrica VS1, direcionados pelo setor de manufatura com foco em trabalho especializado e capital.

La mise en place de l'Euro en 1999 a constitué un événement économique majeur pour les Etats européens. La crise financière de 2007, puis la crise de la dette souveraine en 2010, ont amené à remettre en question la pérennité de la zone Euro, et la capacité de certains de ses membres à respecter leurs engagements vis-à-vis de la monnaie unique. Les mesures d'austérité mises en oeuvre au sein de l'Union Economique et Monétaire dans le contexte actuel de crise peuvent constituer pour certains Etats une tentation supplémentaire pour quitter la monnaie unique et recouvrer leur indépendance monétaire et fiscale. Une sortie de la zone Euro de la Grèce, voire d'autres Etats membres en difficulté (Portugal, Irlande, Italie, et Espagne) n'est aujourd'hui plus un scénario à exclure. Cette thèse se propose de considérer la question du régime monétaire optimal, régime de change flexible ou union monétaire, pour les 17 pays de la zone Euro, dans le cadre des crises financières et de dettes souveraines qui les affectent actuellement. Le premier chapitre est général et vise à démontrer formellement la survenue d'une rupture structurelle due au passage à la monnaie unique en 1999. Il montre qu'une telle rupture s'est bien produite pour les pays de la zone Euro autour de l'année 1992, qui a marqué l'adoption du traité de Maastricht et la mise en place des critères de convergence pour l'adoption de l'Euro. Cette rupture n'est pas partagée par les trois pays européens qui ont préservé leur monnaie (Royaume-Uni, Suède, et Danemark). Le second chapitre constitue le coeur de ce travail. Il présente le modèle de référence utilisé pour mener la comparaison entre les deux régimes monétaires considérés pour la zone Euro. Il s'agit d'un modèle à deux pays intégrant des rigidités financières dans le cadre des transactions interbancaires conclues entre les Etats membres. Le modèle, une fois étalonné pour la zone Euro, suggère que les rigidités financières peuvent jouer un rôle considérable dans la dynamique de ces Etats, les chocs affectant les économies partenaires pouvant contribuer de manière significative à la dynamique nationale. Les simulations numériques préliminaires de crise financières menées sur le modèle ne permettent pas d'apporter de réponse concluante quant aux performances des deux régimes monétaires envisagés, le régime de change flexible semblant amener une stabilité accrue, là où une union monétaire permet une récupération plus rapide suite à la crise initiale. Le dernier chapitre remplit un double objectif. Il propose d'abord un critère de bien-être formel pour l'évaluation des performances respectives des deux régimes considérés. Il développe également un certain nombre d'extensions au modèle de référence, afin d'intégrer la dette souveraine, et les politiques de crédit (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme et Securities Markets Programme) mises en place par la BCE depuis le début de la crise. Les résultats montrent qu'en l'absence de politiques interventionnistes de la part de la Banque Centrale Européenne, une grande majorité des Etats de la zone Euro (15 sur 17) bénéficieraient d'un plus haut niveau de bien-être dans un régime de change flexible. Toutefois, les conclusions s'inversent dans le cadre du Securities Markets Programme, où les Etats membres deviennent alors majoritairement favorables au régime d'union monétaire. Celà suggère que la BCE a un rôle à jouer au sein de l'espace monétaire Européen qui va au-delà de sa fonction première d'instigatrice de la politique monétaire. / The introduction of the Euro currency in 1999 represented a major event for the European economies. The 2007 financial crisis and the subsequent 2010 sovereign debt crisis have led to question the sustainability of the Euro area and the capacity of certain member states to fulfil their commitments with respect to the single currency. The numerous austerity plans implemented within the Economic and Monetary Union in the current context of crisis constitute additional arguments for certain states to leave the single currency and retrieve their fiscal and monetary independences. It is not unconceivable anymore for countries such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain (the PIIGS) to envisage exiting the Euro area. This thesis considers the issue of determining the optimal monetary regime  flexible exchange rates or monetary union  for the 17 Eurozone countries, accounting for the current financial and sovereign debt crises. Chapter 1 is general and aims at formally establishing the occurrence of a structural break attributable to the 1999 passage to the single currency. It shows that such a break did take place for Euro area countries around 1992, the year which marked the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty and the settlement of the convergence criteria for the Euro. This break is not shared by the three European States which chose to preserve their own currencies (the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark). Chapter 2 constitutes the core of this work. It introduces the benchmark model used to perform the comparison between the two monetary regimes considered for the Euro area. It features a two-country open-economy model integrating financial frictions through cross-border interbank markets. Once calibrated for the Euro area, the model suggests that financial rigidities may play a substantial role in the dynamics of Eurozone economies, with a potentially significant impact of shocks affecting the partner economies over national developments. Preliminary financial crisis simulations run on the model prove inconclusive to assess the performances of the two monetary regimes contemplated. On the one hand, the flexible exchange rate regime results in improved stability, but on the other hand the monetary union typically allows for faster recovery following the initial crisis trigger. The third and final chapter meets a double purpose. It first proposes a formal welfare criteria to assess the respective performances of the two monetary regimes under consideration for the Euro area. It then augments the benchmark model with a number of extensions, so as to integrate sovereign debt and the diverse credit policies (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme and Securities Markets Programme) implemented by the ECB since the beginning of the crisis to the basic framework. The results show that absent credit policies, a vast majority of Euro area members (15 out of 17) would enjoy higher welfare levels under a flexible exchange rate regime. These conclusions nevertheless reverse under the Securities Markets Programme, where a majority of member states then favour the monetary union. This suggests that the ECB has a role to play for the Euro area which goes beyond its primary function of monetary policy maker.

Trade liberalization in Kenya started in the early 1980s with the structural adjustment programmes, and continued under the multilateral framework of the WTO. During the same period, the incidence of poverty and level of inequality also worsened. The government’s focus on trade negotiations has been to ensure that there is policy space for the daily running of the economy even though welfare impacts are also important. Non-state actors have argued that trade liberalization has negatively affected the poor; particularly the farmers, since they cannot compete with the developed countries whose farmers enjoy significant government support through subsidies, making their products much cheaper in the world market. Government officials, on the other hand, contend that trade liberalization is good as it brings in competition and transfer of technology which is good for an economy. It is important to examine how trade liberalization has affected household’s welfare in Kenya, given that this kind of analysis has not been conducted in Kenya. This study is unique because it does not assume the existence of a trade liberalization– poverty relationship, unlike most studies. It uses a multi-method approach to first test the hypothesis that there is no statistically significant relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, it further tests for multiplier effects of trade liberalization on poverty determinants. Trade Liberalization and poverty is found to have a stochastic relationship, furthermore investments and capital stock were found to significantly affect poverty determinants in the stochastic model. Due to unavailability of household welfare measure data in time series, a CGE model was used to establish the dynamics of trade liberalization on poverty at a point in time using the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix Data for Kenya. Overall, trade liberalization accompanied by FDI had the greatest impact on household welfare. Trade liberalization had a positive impact on household welfare since household incomes and consumption increased. Micro simulations results, based on changes in consumption, also showed that poverty incidence reduced for all households, even though the urban households experienced higher decreases. The study found that there was little difference in protecting sensitive products and not protecting them; secondly, trade liberalization accompanied by foreign direct investment had greater impact on improving the household welfare. Consumption and incomes increased, resulting in overall poverty reduction. The welfare of urban households was much higher than rural households in terms of income and consumption increases. However, income inequality was much higher in urban than rural areas. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar o desempenho de estimadores baseados em momentos das famílias verossimilhança empírica generalizada (GEL) e mínimo contraste generalizado (GMC) na estimação de modelos de equilíbrio geral dinâmico e estocástico (DSGE), com enfoque na análise de robustez sob má-especificação, recorrente neste tipo de modelo. Como benchmark utilizamos método do momentos generalizado (GMM), máxima verossimilhança (ML) e inferência bayesiana (BI). Trabalhamos com um modelo de ciclos reais de negócios (RBC) que pode ser considerado o núcleo de modelos DSGE, apresenta dificuldades similares e facilita a análise dos resultados devido ao menor número de parâmetros. Verificamos por meio de experimentos de Monte Carlo se os estimadores estudados entregam resultados satisfatórios em termos de média, mediana, viés, erro quadrático médio, erro absoluto médio e verificamos a distribuição das estimativas geradas por cada estimador. Dentre os principais resultados estão: (i) o estimador verossimilhança empírica (EL) - assim como sua versão com condições de momento suavizadas (SEL) - e a inferência bayesiana (BI) foram, nesta ordem, os que obtiveram os melhores desempenhos, inclusive nos casos de especificação incorreta; (ii) os estimadores continous updating empirical likelihood (CUE), mínima distância de Hellinger (HD), exponential tilting (ET) e suas versões suavizadas apresentaram desempenho comparativo intermediário; (iii) o desempenho dos estimadores exponentially tilted empirical likelihood (ETEL), exponential tilting Hellinger distance (ETHD) e suas versões suavizadas foi bastante comprometido pela ocorrência de estimativas atípicas; (iv) as versões com e sem suavização das condições de momento dos estimadores das famílias GEL/GMC apresentaram desempenhos muito similares; (v) os estimadores GMM, principalmente no caso sobreidentificado, e ML apresentaram desempenhos consideravelmente abaixo de boa parte de seus concorrentes / The objective of this work is to investigate the performance of moment-based estimators of the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) and generalized minimum contrast (GMC) families in the estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, focusing on the robustness analysis under misspecification, recurrent in this model. As benchmark we used generalized method of moments (GMM), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian inference (BI). We work with a real business cycle (RBC) model that can be considered the core of DSGE models, presents similar difficulties and facilitates the analysis of results due to lower number of parameters. We verified, via Monte Carlo experiments, whether the studied estimators presented satisfactory results in terms of mean, median, bias, mean square error, mean absolute error and we verified the distribution of the estimates generated by each estimator. Among the main results are: (i) empirical likelihood (EL) estimator - as well as its version with smoothed moment conditions (SEL) - and Bayesian inference (BI) were, in that order, the ones that obtained the best performances, even in misspecification cases; (ii) continuous updating empirical likelihood (CUE), minimum Hellinger distance (HD), exponential tilting (ET) estimators and their smoothed versions exhibit intermediate comparative performance; (iii) performance of exponentially tilted empirical likelihood (ETEL), exponential tilting Hellinger distance (ETHD) and its smoothed versions was seriously compromised by atypical estimates; (iv) smoothed and non-smoothed GEL/GMC estimators exhibit very similar performances; (v) GMM, especially in the over-identified case, and ML estimators had lower performance than their competitors

The main objective of the dissertation is to develop a dynamic, inter-regional, and multi-sector general equilibrium model of the Belgian economy capable of analysing issues related to the environment, energy, fiscal policies and accounting for distributive effects between household groups. The dissertation focuses on BelMod, a computable general equilibrium model (CGE).<p>BelMod is intended to act as an analytical and quantitative support for decision-making in the energy/environment field and fiscal policies. The tool would be in evaluating ex-ante the cost and benefit of different policies to be implemented. The winners and the losers may easily be identified. BelMod also aims at filling the gaps left by the other models currently used in Belgium, in particular by explicit bottom-up modelling of the three Belgian regions (Brussels, Flanders, Wallonia) in the full integrated framework, by further disaggregating the production and consumption blocks, by distinguishing different types of households to study the distributional effects of environmental and fiscal policies.<p>The effect of let’s say, carbon tax, may affect branches of activities, markets and institutions differently over time and space. Under the “Burden Sharing Agreement”, Belgium committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 7.5 % by 2008-2012 from the 1990 level. Therefore the efficient way of dealing with this issue requires an analytical tool which can take into account the interactions between institutional agents (regional governments, community’s governments, central government, households, firms and rest of the world), their behaviour and the time horizon. The most adequate tool to do so is the general equilibrium model.<p>A CGE model such as BelMod requires a consistent, detailed and well structured database in the form of a social accounting matrix (SAM). A SAM is a square matrix which takes into account the production, consumption, revenues, expenditures and transactions of institutions at a given period of time. The reference year for our SAM is 2003. The SAM we built contains sixty two (62) branches of activity, sixty nine (69) commodities, three (3) regional governments, the French Community, the Central Government, the capital accounts and the Rest of the World.<p>Finally, to illustrate the capabilities of the model we provide two scenario analyses. In the first policy scenario, we simulate the introduction of a carbon tax at 20 euro per ton of CO2 emissions in 2013-2020 and 30 euro per ton of CO2 emissions in 2021-2050. In the second policy scenario, we simulate a linear and gradual increase of the crude oil price to 150 US dollars per barrel in 2050. The increase starts in 2008 and the target (150 US dollars) is reached in 2050.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The submitted thesis is composed of three different articles dealing with issues of financial innovation, credit constraints, and their impact on welfare. The first article treats the contemporary theoretical grasp of the interaction between the financial and real economies, focusing primarily on the role of modern financial innovation in the business cycle. For this purpose, a framework promoted by the Regulation School and Post Keynesians is frequently employed, whilst some other unorthodox streams and mainstream economics are partially discussed as well. All of them aspire -- either per se or under the pressure of the contemporary economic agenda -- to clarify the evolution of financial innovation and credit in the recent era. It is generally found that certain consensus across the schools of economic thought exists, but some of them have done a better job in predicting the consequences of the financial innovation for real economic activity than others. Further, two dynamic macroeconomic models are developed in order to, inter alia, identify the possible effects of extended credit availability presented in the former article on the example of the housing market, and simulate the effects of housing price changes on general welfare. Clearly, this part of the thesis exhibits the indirect consequences of financial innovation as, once again, being rather ambiguous: after having partially unleashed the unprecedented credit granting in the economy, impacting interest rates and loan-to-value ratios, with a subsequent impact on housing prices, it has also influenced credit constrained and unconstrained households in a different manner. Based on an analysis of the situation using partial and general equilibrium analytical frameworks, two somewhat different conclusions are drawn up with respect to the occurrence of various shocks in the models. Under the partial equilibrium framework the effects of relaxation of credit constraints are visible and quite straightforward, indicating relatively simple and intuitive relationship between the price appreciation and general welfare. This is primarily perspicuous for the credit constrained households. In the general equilibrium framework, on the other hand, the transitional dynamics of shock proliferation is more transparent and the impact on credit constrained vs. unconstrained households is more ambiguous and much different from the basic intuition used in the article anchored in the partial equilibrium toolbox.

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