Global climate change is anticipated to raise the overall temperatures and is likely to increase future mortality attributable to heat. China, a rapid developing nation with the world’s largest population, has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past century, with an annual increase in air temperature by 0.5–0.8°C. While increasing evidence is suggesting that climate change has posed significant health risks to Chinese population, including heat-related mortality, the extent to which climate change will affect future mortality and the sources of uncertainty in projecting prospective changes in mortality remain unexplored. This working-in-progress study aims at estimating excess future premature deaths in large urban areas in China resulting from potential increases in temperature under climate change and investigating sources of uncertainty. We include 51 large Chinese cities in this study, which approximately one third of the total population in China. We use an integrated approach, which combines temperature predictions from climate models, local temperature-mortality relationship and population forecasting, to project the future excess mortality attributed to higher temperature during warm season. The poster presents the results of predicting temperature change during 2040-2050 relative to the baseline period 1950-2000 in the 51 cities selected. We ensemble outputs from 19 climate models used in the IPCC 5th Report, including outputs related to all four AR5 emission scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5).

Global climate change is anticipated to raise the overall temperatures and is likely to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Predicting future health consequences of higher temperatures at the regional, national and global level based on historical temperature-mortality relationships can be challenging due in part to the uncertainties in the location-specific temperature-mortality relationship, the heat threshold, and how populations will adapt or acclimatize. This study reviews published estimates of the warm season temperature-mortality relationships around the world and explores the heterogeneity in terms of the magnitude of the relationship and the threshold. We also investigate the potential effects of adaptation and acclimatization on the estimates of excess heat-related deaths based on empirical evidence, and propose a method that can be used in future projections to address the uncertainties. This study contributes to the literature of projecting the future public health burden of heat-related effects, which provides valuable information to climate policy decision making.

Aerosol are solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere ranging in size from 10 3 to 102 m. Aerosol influence both the regional and global climate of the earth by its direct and indirect effect. Role of atmospheric aerosols on the radiative forcing of atmosphere is a matter of serious research for past few decades and still it remains highly uncertain as acknowledged by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Heterogeneous nature of aerosol both spatially and temporally makes it more complex in estimating radiative forcing compared to that of greenhouse gases. Compounding to the existing difficulty in determining the climate effects, changing aerosol concentration and nature of the aerosol further increases the complexity in determining its effects in both regional and global climate. Increasing aerosol loading is emerging to be an issue of major concern over several regions. The first step towards achieving this goal is by determining the trends in the physical and optical properties of aerosol over the globe. Main objective of the thesis is the determination of the recent trends in aerosol loading over the globe and then to focus specifically on the properties of aerosol over an urban site in southern India. Specific objectives are (a) to determine the trend in aerosol physical and optical properties over the globe using AERONET surface observations (b) to characterize the chemical properties of water soluble inorganic aerosol over an urban site in Southern India, Bangalore (c) to have a better estimation of aerosol radiative forcing over Bangalore with measured aerosol chemical concentration, black carbon concentration and aerosol optical depth (AOD). To quantify the recent trends in aerosol loading over the globe, we have used the surface observations from AERONET and the study provided the first step in giving a global picture of the recent trends in the fundamental optical and physical property of aerosol. Trend analysis showed a significant spatial inhomogenity, and Asian continent clearly showed an increasing trend in AOD compared to other continents. Solar village (24.9oN, 46.4oE) of Saudi Arabia showed a maximum with a value of 0.04/yr and Bac -Giang (21oN, 106oE) of Vietnam showed the minimum value of -0.04/yr. North American study region included 18 sites in which eastern US (E.US) exhibited a decreasing trend while the scenario in western US (W.US) is different with more of sites with increasing AOD trend. Single scattering albedo (SSA) trend in W. US showed a decreasing trend irrespective of the AOD trend. Study sites in South America include Cordoba -CETT (31.5oNS, 64.5 oN W) Alta Floresta (9.8oS, 56.1 o W), Riobranco (9.9oNS, 67.8o W) and Soa Poulo (23.5oS, 46.7o W).Except Riobranco which has a positive trend in AOD, all other sites exhibited a statistically signi cant negative trend. Over Australia, there is an inclination towards increasing AOD in sites and all the three sites in Australia exhibit a statistically significant increasing trend in SSA. According to the recent trends in AOD over African region, there exists a significant decrease in AOD compared to that reported for few years earlier, showing the high temporal in homogeneity and need for continuous observation of aerosol over the regions. European study region included 15 stations, among them only 3 sites showed an increasing trend in AOD, remaining 12 sites showed a significant decreasing trend in aerosol loading over the period of study. SSA was also observed to be decreasing over most of the European sites, even with a decreasing AOD over most of the sites. A Comparison study carried out to determine the relation of population growth rate and aerosol loading, and it revealed that the increasing AOD trend not always coincided with the sites having high population growth rate. Having determined the trends in AOD and other aerosol parameters over the globe and seeing an alarmingly increasing trend over most of the Asian sites, especially over Indian region, we have then focused over work on the aerosol properties of one of the rapidly growing urban location in southern India, Bangalore. While physical properties of aerosol have been extensively studied over Bangalore, chemical characteristics are still an unexplored area. Extensive information on aerosol chemical composition is not available over Indian region except for a few locations based on campaign mode. Even available data is of very coarse temporal resolution, since hours or full day sampling is needed to gather enough samples for chemical analysis. High temporal resolution data of aerosol chemical characteristics, especially for all season is completely lacking over Indian subcontinent. Among aerosol, water soluble aerosol form an important component in particulate matter, since it can change its size, composition, can easily mix with other aerosols and can act as cloud condensation nuclei, based on its hygroscopic nature. Present study provided the rst time results from a high temporal resolution water soluble inorganic aerosol chemical data over Indian region, which is first step towards estimating aerosol climate impacts more accurately. Water soluble inorganic aerosol ions over Bangalore namely, sulphate, nitrate, chloride, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sodium and ammonium are measured using Particle Into Liquid Sampler Ion Chromatograph (PILS-IC). PILS is an online sampling technique for quantitatively measuring the chemical concentration of ion in water soluble aerosol particles. PILS IC used in the present study is developed in Georgia Institute of Technology. Instrument samples ambient air at a flow rate of 16.7Lmin 1. Particles below PM 2.5 micron are collected for the analysis using cyclone impactor. Two annular glass denuders are used to remove inorganic gases which else will interfere with the aerosol ion concentration. Ambient air which is deprived of the inorganic gases is then mixed with steam vapours at 150oC, eventually high supersaturated atmosphere is produced with rapid adiabatic mixing of steam and ambient air. High supersaturated air allows droplets to grow enough to be collected by inertial impaction onto a quartz impactor plate. Entire PILS condensation unit is kept at a slight tilt of 15o, to remove all condensate through drain tube connected to the end of the PILS condensate body. Condensed liquid sample is collected from the impaction chamber and known concentration LiF is allowed to mix with the collected sample at a constant rate. LiF known as carrier liquid is added to know the dilution occurring to the collected sample. Sample with carrier liquid is then collected to a debubbler and is supplied to the IC through peristaltic tubings for determining the ion chemical concentration. Seasonal variation of mass concentration of water soluble aerosol species and the influence of long range transport is carried out using HYSPILT back trajectory analysis. Marine air mass from Arabian Sea dominated the air parcel reaching the site for both SW monsoon and summer. Continental air mass dominated the site during both NE monsoon and winter with slight contribution from marine atmosphere. Source characteristics of sulphate, potassium, calcium and magnesium ions are carried out based on sea salt (ss) and non sea salt (nss) origin and it is observed that the nss contribution is dominant over the site for all these ions except magnesium where ss component comparatively dominates the source. SO24 and NO3 form the dominant anions while NH+4 makes the dominant cation species. Monthly variation of the ratio of ammonium to nss -sulphate is carried out to determine the possible cation -anion relation existing between these two major ions. During later winter and summer months ammonium bi sulphate is found to be the existing chemical form and ammonium sulphate during other seasons. High temporal resolution data enabled us to study the diurnal variation of aerosol ions and it is influenced by various mechanisms from boundary layer to local emissions. Optical properties of aerosols depend upon the size and the relative abun-dance of each components. It is usual practice to assume default aerosol chemical composition in radiative transfer models due to unavailability of data, which can lead to errors in forcing estimates. Incorporating realistic aerosol chemical composition in models is essential to reduce the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. Hence we have included measured aerosol chemical compositions, black carbon and AOD to improve the determination of radiative forcing of aerosol. OPAC and SBDART models were used for estimating the aerosol radiative forcing over Bangalore. We have used mainly four components namely, soot, water soluble, sea salt and dust. Except dust all are other components are measured over the site and formed a constrain for the calculation. Dust concentration was altered so that the OPAC AOD matched the measured AOD within 5%. Mineral dust shows the highest contribution in AOD among the four components, however water soluble and soot even being less is mass concentration compared to mineral dust, has significant impact on the AOD. This clearly indicate the influence of both water soluble and soot aerosol over the regional climate of the site. Sea Salt exhibited low AOD compared to other three constituents. The results presented in the thesis highlights the importance of varying trends in the aerosol properties and its effects on a global picture and speci - cally over an urban site in Indian region , we explored the temporal variations of water soluble inorganic aerosol ions and its effects on regional climate. Hence the thesis addressed some of the unexplored areas in aerosol science. This study also suggests the need of continuous observation of aerosol over both spatial and temporal scale, which is essential to estimate their effects on earth's climate.

Non-state actors, such as international environmental organisations, business associations and indigenous peoples organisations, increasingly take on governance functions that can influence the delivery of global public goods. This thesis examines the roles of these actors in the field of global climate change governance. Specifically, the thesis examines why and how non-state actors are involved in global climate change governance, the governance activities that they may perform and are perceived to perform, and their views on climate change solutions. The thesis also discusses the implications of their roles for how authority is shared between states and non-state actors in global climate change governance. The research questions are addressed by triangulating several empirical methods. The results show that the roles of non-state actors are continuously evolving and depend on the changing nature of relations between state and non-state actors as well as efforts by non-state actors to expand their policy space by justifying and seeking recognition for their participation. Moreover, the findings point to the importance of differentiating between groups of non-state actors, as they represent diverse interests and have different comparative advantages across governance activities. Which non-state actors participate and to what extent therefore has implications for the effects of their involvement in global climate change governance. On the basis of a systematic assessment of a set of non-state actors, this thesis concludes that the key role-categories of non-state actors in global climate change governance are broadly: shapers of information and ideas, brokers of knowledge, norms and initiatives, and doers of implementing policies and influencing behaviours. Different non-state actors carry out activities within these role-categories to different extents. In addition to the empirical mapping of the roles of non-state actors in global climate change governance, this thesis contributes to two strands in the literature: one theoretical focusing on the authority and legitimacy of non-state actors in global environmental governance, and the other methodological, offering a toolbox that combines survey data with qualitative methods. / Icke-statliga aktörer, exempelvis internationella miljöorganisationer, näringslivsorganisationer och ursprungsbefolkningsorganisationer, fyller alltmer framträdande funktioner i den globala klimatstyrningen. Dessa organisationer kan därmed påverka utformningen av globala kollektiva nyttigheter. Denna avhandling undersöker dessa aktörers roller inom den globala klimatstyrningen. Avhandlingen utforskar varför och på vilket sätt icke-statliga aktörer deltar i den globala klimatstyrningen, uppfattningar om vilka styraktiviteter de utför, och ifall de bidrar till en mer pluralistisk syn på klimatproblematikens lösningar. I avhandlingen diskuteras vilka konsekvenser de icke-statliga aktörernas roller har för hur auktoritet delas mellan stater och icke-statliga aktörer i den globala klimatpolitiken. Forskningsfrågorna behandlas genom att triangulera flera empiriska metoder. Resultaten från dessa undersökningar visar att de icke-statliga aktörernas roller utvecklas kontinuerligt och att dynamiken dels beror på den skiftande relationen mellan statliga och icke-statliga aktörer, dels på de icke-statliga aktörernas egna ansträngningar att öka sitt politiska handlingsutrymme och få erkännande för sitt deltagande. Dessutom pekar resultaten på vikten av att skilja mellan olika grupper av icke-statliga aktörer, eftersom de representerar skilda intressen och har komparativa fördelar i olika styraktiviteter. En konsekvens av detta är att det spelar roll vilka grupper av icke-statliga aktörer som ges tillträde till den internationella klimatdiplomatin. Baserat på en systematisk  bedömning av vad några av de icke-statliga aktörerna anses göra, dras slutsatsen att de viktigaste rollkategorierna som icke-statliga aktörer har är: formare av information och idéer, mäklare av kunskap, normer och initiativ, och görare genom att bidra till implementering och påverka beteenden, men att olika icke-statliga aktörer utför dessa roller i olika utsträckning. Utöver den empiriska kartläggningen av icke-statliga aktörers roller i den globala klimatstyrningen, bidrar avhandlingen dels till den teoretiska litteraturen kring icke-statliga aktörers auktoritet och legitimitet inom den globala miljöstyrningen, dels metodologiskt genom att utveckla analysverktyg som kombinerar enkätdata med kvalitativa metoder.

During summer, the Baltic Sea is subjected to the world’s largest cyanobacterial blooms. These blooms are linked to eutrophication and raise many questions concerning their effects on the ecosystem. To understand their impacts on the food web dynamics, it is essential to assess growth responses of grazers to these cyanobacteria. In the northern Baltic proper, copepods are the most important herbivores providing an essential link between the primary producers and higher trophic levels. In this Thesis, Papers I &amp; II evaluate methods to estimate copepod growth in response to feeding conditions in situ. The most conspicuous diazotrophic filamentous cyanobacterium in the Baltic Sea is Nodularia spumigena, a producer of nodularin which is highly toxic to vertebrates, yet its ecological role is largely unknown. In Paper III, reciprocal interactions between cyanobacteria, sympatric algae and copepods are studied. The results suggest that nodularin is likely involved in allelopathic interactions, but it is not an inducible defense against grazers. Furthermore, the results of Papers IV &amp; V, indicate that natural assemblages of N. spumigena and Anabaena spp. may support copepod reproduction and that total diazotrophic filamentous cyanobacteria appear to provide a beneficial feeding environment for the feeding stages of copepod nauplii, most probably by stimulating the microbial communities that nauplii feed upon. Since cyanobacterial blooms are projected to increase due to global climate change, the combined effects of toxic cyanobacteria, ocean acidification and global warming predicted for year 2100 are further investigated on copepods in Paper IV. Taken together, these studies indicate that filamentous diazotrophic cyanobacteria contribute to sustaining secondary productivity and have potential implications of management practices with respect to combating eutrophication, global climate change and sustaining fish feeding conditions. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript. Paper 5: Manuscript.</p>

Arctic geoengineering wherein sunlight absorption is reduced only in the Arctic has been suggested as a remedial measure to counteract the on-going rapid climate change in the Arctic. Several modelling studies have shown that Arctic geoengineering can minimize Arctic warming but will shift the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward, unless offset by comparable geoengineering in the Southern Hemisphere. In this study, we investigate and quantify the implications of this ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering for the global monsoon regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 coupled to a slab ocean model. A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels leads to a warming of ~ 6 K in the Arctic region and precipitation in the monsoon regions increases by up to ~15 %. In our Arctic geoengineering simulation which illustrates a plausible latitudinal distribution of the reduction in sunlight, an addition of sulfate aerosols (11 Mt) in the Arctic stratosphere nearly offsets the Arctic warming due to CO2 doubling but this shifts the ITCZ southward by ~1.5⁰ relative to the pre-industrial climate. The combined effect from this shift and the residual CO2-induced climate change in the tropics is a decrease/increase in annual mean precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere /Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions by up to -12/+17%. Polar geoengineering where sulfate aerosols are prescribed in both the Arctic (10 Mt) and Antarctic (8 Mt) nearly offsets the ITCZ shift due to Arctic geoengineering, but there is still a residual precipitation increase (up to 7 %) in most monsoon regions associated with the residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics. The ITCZ shift due to our Global geoengineering simulation, where aerosols (20 Mt) are prescribed uniformly around the globe, is much smaller and the precipitation changes in most monsoon regions are within ±2 % as the residual CO2-induced warming in the tropics is also much less than in Arctic and Polar geoengineering. Further, global geoengineering nearly offsets the Arctic warming. Based on our results we infer that Arctic geoengineering leads to ITCZ shift and leaves residual CO2 induced warming in the tropics resulting in substantial precipitation changes in the monsoon regions.

Title: Analysis of Climate Model Outputs Author: RNDr. Zuzana Chládová E-mail: zuzana.chladova@gmail.com Department: Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague Supervisor: RNDr. Aleš Raidl, Ph.D. Supervisor's e-mail address: ales.raidl@mff.cuni.cz Consultant: doc. RNDr. Jaroslava Kalvová, CSc. Regional climate models are currently the most important tools regularly used for downscaling outputs of global climate models. This analysis compares control and future runs of the global climate models HadCM3, ECHAM5/OPYC3 and ARPÉGE/OPA and the regional climate models RCAO, RCA3, HIRHAM4, HIRHAM5 and ALADIN- CLIMATE/CZ with observed data and CRU data for the Czech Republic. In the period 1961-1990, the global climate models underestimated the air temperature in comparison with corresponding virtual time series representing real data; mean annual courses and variance of the temperature, on the other hand, were simulated satisfactorily. The results of the regional climate models showed overestimation of the model temperature in winter season, while in other seasons the model temperatures corresponded better with real values and the results of simulation were generally more accurate in comparison with global climate models. Concerning...

Agriculture is, after fossil fuels, the second largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions, which are responsible for global climate change, and it is necessary to look for ways to reduce this environmental load. Cereals are the most cultivated crops in the world, so it is appropriate to examine their share of this load. The aim of the thesis was to evaluate and compare the environmental aspects of the cultivation of selected cereals (wheat, rye and barley) in the conventional and ecological farming system. The resulting environmental load was first calculated on 1 kg of grain, and then the load was recalculated to a load of 1 kg of protein contained in grain of selected cereals. Protein content in grain is one of the grain quality indicators. A simplified LCA method has been used for the environmental load calculations. This method is used for environmental impact assessments and covers the whole life cycle of the product.

Modelos de distribuição de espécies, também conhecidos como modelos bioclimáticos ou modelos de nicho ecológico, têm sido aplicados em inúmeras questões ecológicas, incluindo espécies invasoras. Essa tese identificou as principais tendências e lacunas de estudos sobre o uso de modelos de distribuição de espécies para predizer a distribuição potencial de espécies invasoras (primeiro artigo). Adicionalmente, aplicou-se modelos de distribuição de espécies para predizer a distribuição potencial de Eragrostis plana Nees na América do Sul e verificar se ocorreu mudança de seu nicho bioclimático durante o processo de invasão (segundo artigo). Finalmente, avaliou-se a resposta em relação às áreas de ocorrência de cinco gramíneas Africanas invasoras nas Américas frente às mudanças climáticas (terceiro artigo). O primeiro artigo realiza uma análise cienciométrica sobre o uso de modelos de distribuição de espécies para predizer a distribuição potencial de espécies invasoras. O segundo artigo utiliza o Algoritmo GARP como técnica de modelagem e foram criados dois modelos para predizer a distribuição potencial de E. plana: um utilizando dados da região nativa da espécie (África do Sul) e outro com dados da região nativa e invadida (regiões da Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai). Posteriormente, cada modelo foi projetado na América do Sul para identificar regiões favoráveis ao estabelecimento de E. plana e verificar se os registros de ocorrência da espécie encontram-se dentro das regiões preditas com alta probabilidade pelos modelos. Além disso, a hipótese de que espécies podem alterar o seu nicho climático durante o processo de invasão foi avaliada para E. plana através de análises estatísticas multivariadas. O terceiro artigo aplica distintas técnicas de modelagem disponíveis no ambiente computacional BIOMOD, seguidas de conjunto de previsões para predizer a distribuição potencial das cinco gramíneas invasoras Africanas nas Américas frente às mudanças climáticas globais. / Species distribution models, also known as bioclimatic models or ecological niche models, have been applied in numerous ecological issues, including invasive species. This thesis indentified the main trends and gaps in studies on the use of species distribution models to predict the potential distribution of invasive species (first paper). Additionally, it includes species distribution modelling to predict the potential distribution of Eragrostis plana Nees in South America and assess the potential shift of its bioclimatic niche in the process of invasion (second paper). Finally, it includes as assessment of the response in terms of areas of occurrence of five invasive African grasses in the Americas under climate changes (third paper). The first paper provides a scientometric analysis on the use of species-distribution models to predict the potential distribution of invasive species. The second paper uses the algorithm GARP as modelling method and created two models to predict the potential distribution of E. plana: the first one used data from the native region (South Africa) and the second one data from both the native and invaded (Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay). Subsequently, each model was projected in South America to identify regions favorable to the establishment of E. plana and assess whether the occurrence records are found within regions predicted by the models with high probability. Moreover, the hypothesis that species can shift their bioclimatic niche during the invasion process was evaluated for E. plana using multivariate statistical analysis. The third paper applies distinct modelling methods available in the BIOMOD package, followed by ensembles forecasting to predict the potential distribution of five invasive African grasses in Americas under climate changes.

The thesis focuses on partial assessment of the life cycle of the strawberry plant (Fragaria), the breeding of which has a long tradition in the Czech Republic. The breeding technologies in conventional and ecological farming systems are compared, in relation to the greenhouse gases emission. The data from agriculture and transportation were accumulated by way of questionnaire survey and expert literature.The objective of this thesis was to assess the impact of individual agrotechnical factors on the pollution of the environment with greenhouse gases emissions in conventional and ecological farming systems, and also to test the hypothesis on whether it is better, from the environmental point of view, to consume locally produced or imported strawberries.The environmental impact was calculated with the SIMAPro software. This tool uses the Ecoinvent databases and enables to create a model of life cycle of the product in question according to the ČSN EN ISO 14040 and ČSN EN ISO 14044 standards. Theinputs and outputs were related to the unit of one hectare and the resulting value was converted as per 1 kg of strawberries. The input included technological operations, amount of fertilisers, and plant protection products; the output of the analysis was the emission load per1 kg of strawberries expressed in the CO2 equivalent.