Les variations du rayonnement solaire en surface (SSR) peuvent avoir un impact significatif sur divers aspects du système climatique, et notamment sur le développement socio-économique d’un pays. Pour identifier les impacts possibles du changement climatique sur le rayonnement solaire en surface à l'échelle régionale (~ 50 km) en Afrique australe jusqu'à la fin du 21ème siècle, on a analysé les données mensuelles produites dans le cadre du projet CORDEX-Afrique sur la période 1979-2099. Ces données sont issues des sorties de 5 modèles régionaux de climat (RCM) forcés par 10 modèles globaux de climat (GCM) CMIP5, pour deux scénarios d’émissions, RCP4.5 et RCP8.5, en Afrique australe (SA) et sur une partie du SWIO (0-40°S ; 0- 60°E). Pour contribuer au projet futur proposé qui vise à approfondir l'étude des changements de SSR à l'échelle locale (~ 1 km de résolution horizontale) à l'île de la Réunion et à l'île Maurice, situées dans le Sud-ouest de l'océan Indien (SWIO), près du bord d’Est du domaine CORDEX-Afrique, des simulations climatiques ont été réalisées sur trois fenêtres temporelles de 10 ans : a) le passé 1996-2005 ; et b) le futur 2046-2055 et 2090-2099, en utilisant la version 4 du RCM RegCM (RegCM4), forcé par : 1) les réanalyses climatiques ERA-Interim (ERAINT) du centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme (ECMWF) pour simuler un passé récent seulement ; et 2) deux GCMs (HadGEM2-ES et GFDL-ESM2M) de l’exercice CMIP5 de simulations du climat passé et futur pour le scénario d’émissions RCP8.5 à l’échelle régionale de 50km en Afrique australe et dans le sud-ouest de l’océan Indien (0-40°S ; 0- 100°E). L’analyse de l’impact du changement climatique sur le SSR sur la base de ces simulations reste cependant limitée, à cause de leur couverture temporelle (3 périodes de 10 ans) et du nombre de modèles (2 GCMs, 1 RCM) et de scénarios (1 RCP) utilisés. Il ressort de l’analyse des simulations de l’ensemble CORDEX-Afrique que : 1) sur la période passée récente, les GCMs forceurs surestiment généralement SSR d'environ 1 W/m2 en été austral (DJF : Décembre-Janvier-Février), et de 7,5 W/m2 en hiver austral (JJA : Juin-Juillet-Août), tandis que les RCMs, forcés par ces GCMs, sous-estiment SSR d'environ -32 W/m2 et de -14 W/m2 en été et en hiver, respectivement. 2) Les projections multi-modèles de changement de SSR simulées par les RCMs et leurs GCMs forceurs sont assez cohérentes. Les GCMs prévoient, en moyenne multi-modèles, une augmentation statistiquement significative de SSR d'environ 8 W/m2 en 2099 selon le scénario RCP4.5 et de 12 W/m2 en 2099 selon le scénario RCP8.5 sur le Centre de l’Afrique australe (SA-C), et une diminution de SSR, avec un degré de confiance élevé, d'environ -5 W/m2 en 2099 selon le scénario RCP4.5 et de -10 W/m2 en 2099 selon le scénario RCP8.5, pendant la saison DJF, en Afrique équatoriale (EA-E). Dans ces deux régions, les RCMs produisent, en moyenne multi-modèles, des tendances similaires (avec un degré de confiance élevé) à celles des GCMs, mais sur des zones d’extension spatiale plus faible que celle des GCMs. Cependant, pour la saison JJA, une augmentation de SSR, d'amplitude similaire dans les simulations GCMs et RCMs (~5 W/m2 en 2099 selon le scénario RCP4.5 et 10 W/m2 selon le scénario RCP8.5), est attendue dans la région EA-E. 3). Une diminution significative de la nébulosité (environ -6% en 2099) est attendue sur le continent sud-africain pour les GCMs comme pour les RCMs. 4) Le scénario RCP8.5 produit des changements d’amplitude supérieure de 2.5W/m2 pour les GCMs forceurs et de 5W/m2 pour les RCMs en 2099 à celle pour le scénario RCP4.5. 5). Comme pour les sorties du modèle RegCM4, les structures des biais ou des changements de SSR issu des RCMs du programme CORDEX-Afrique sont globalement corrélées avec celles de couverture nuageuse totale des RCMs. L’analyse des sorties du modèle RegCM4 indique que : ..... / Changes in Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) have the potential to significantly impact diverse aspects of the climate system, and notably the socio-economic development of any nation. To identify the possible impacts of climate change on SSR at regional scales (~50 km) over Southern Africa and the South West Indian Ocean (SA-SWIO; 0-40°S ; 0- 100°E) up to the end of the 21st century, a slice downscaling experiment consisting of simulations covering three temporal windows: a) the present 1996-2005; b) the future 2046-2055 and 2090-2099 conducted with the Regional Climate Model (RCM) RegCM version 4, driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAINT, only present) and 2 Global Climate Model (GCMs: HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 scenario, are performed and evaluated. Since the slice simulation is of limited temporal coverage, number of regional and driven global models and climate change forcings, mainly because of the limit of available computational resources, the study towards a comprehensive knowledge of SSR changes in context of climate change is thus extended: an ensemble consisting of outputs from 20 regional climate downscaling realisations based on 5 RCMs that participated in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) program (CORDEX-Africa) along with their 10 driving GCMs from CMIP5 covering southern Africa (0-40°S; 0- 100°E) during the period of 1990-2099 is analyzed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 up to 2099.The slice experiment indicates that 1) RegCM4 simulates present-day seasonal climatology, (surface air temperature, precipitation and SSR) quite well, but has a negative total cloud cover bias (about -20% in absolute percentage) when forced by the ERAINT and the two GCMs. 2) Internal variability of RegCM4-simulated annual means SSR (about 0.2 W/m2) is of one order smaller than the model bias compared with reference data. 3) RegCM4 simulates SSR changes in opposite signs when driven by the different GCMs under RCP8.5 scenario. 4) Electricity potential calculated using first-order estimation based on the RegCM simulations indicates a change less then 2% to 2099 with respect on present level.It is also found from the ensemble study that: 1) GCMs ensemble generally overestimates SSR by about 1 W/m2 in austral summer (December, January, and February, short as DJF) and 7.5 W/m2 in austral winter (June, July and August, short as JJA), while RCMs ensemble mean shows underestimations of SSR by about -32 W/m2 and -14 W/m2 in summer and winter seasons respectively when driven by GCMs. 2) Multi-model mean projections of SSR change patterns simulated by the GCMs and their embedded RCMs are fairly consistent. 3) GCMs project, in their multi-model means, a statistically significant increase of SSR of about 8 W/m2 in RCP4.5 and 12 W/m2 in RCP8.5 by 2099 over Centre Southern Africa (SA-C) and a highly confident decreasing SSR over Eastern Equatorial Africa (EA-E) of about -5 W/m2 in RCP4.5 and -10 W/m2 in RCP8.5 during the DJF season. RCMs simulate SSR change with statistical confidence over SA-C and EA-E area as well with a little spatial extension compared to GCMs. However, in the JJA season, an increase of SSR is found over EA-E of about 5 W/m2 by 2099 under RCP4.5 and 10 W/m2 under RCP8.5, of similar amplitudes in both the GCMs and RCMs simulations. 4) Significant cloudiness decrease (about -6 % to 2099) is found over continent of SA for GCMs and also shown in RCMs. 5) Larger SSR changes are found in the RCP8.5 scenario than in the RCP4.5 scenario in 2099, with about 2.5 W/m2 enhanced changes in GCMs and about 5 W/m2 in RCMs. 6) Either the biases or the changes pattern of SSR are overall correlated with the patterns of total cloud cover from RCMs in CORDEX-Africa program (for RegCM4 as well). The slice experiment indicates that ...

Medidas in situ na Bacia Amazônica mostraram uma grande variedade de partículas de aerossol provenientes principalmente de fontes biogênicas e de queimadas. Partículas de queimadas foram estudadas em detalhe e são compostas de misturas de partículas esféricas e não esféricas, e aglomerados de até milhares de esferas nanométricas de \"black carbon\" PC). A forma e a estrutura macroscópica das partículas de queimadas são determinadas pelo tipo de combustíve1 queimado, pel0 tipo de combustição e pela \"idade\" das partículas. A estrutura macroscópica das partículas muda em função de suas interações com vapor d\'água, gotas de nuvens e devido à condensação de gases em sua superfície (e.g. gases orgânicos e dióxido de enxofre). Partículas não esféricas e grandes aglomerados tornam-se mais compactos e esféricos em função de seu envelhecimento. Estes aglomerados foram encontrados apenas perto das fontes de queimadas em fase \"flaming\", o que sugere que a compactação dos aglomerados ocorre numa escala de tempo relativamente pequena após sua emissão (minutos até horas). Esta mudança de morfologia produz alterações significativas nas propriedades ópticas das partículas aumentando suas eficiências de absorção e espalhamento de radiação. Micrografias obtidas com microscopia eletrônica de varredura em filtros amostrados em paralelo com diversas outras medidas sugerem o efeito da morfologia nas propriedades ópticas das partículas. Propriedades intensivas das partículas foram medidas neste trabalho para partículas de queimadas e biogênicas. Apesar serem emitidas por fontes bastante distintas, as partículas de queimadas e biogênicas apresentaram importantes similaridades em composição química, tamanho, coeficientes de Angström e rações de retroespalhamento. Por outro lado, as eficiências de absorção e espalhamento assim como o albedo simples apresentaram diferenças significativas entre partículas provenientes das duas fontes. Uma nova metodologia foi desenvolvida neste trabalho para a obtenção da forçante radiativa direta (FRD) por partículas de aerossol usando imagens de sensoriamento remoto. Novos parâmetros das partículas de aerossol foram também definidos neste trabalho para o estudo de seu impacto radiativo. Medidas espectrais com o sensor AVIRIS (224 comprimentos de onda entre 0,38 e 2,5 µm) a bordo do avião ER2 da NASA durante o experimento SCAR-B (Smoke Clouds and Radiation-Brazil) foram utilizadas para a derivação do albedo simples, da espessura óptica e da FRD. Valores significativos da FRD foram obtidos entre 0,25 e 1,6 µm com pico de aproximadamente -200 W m-2µm-1 para um comprimento de onda da ordem de 0,5 µm, por unidade de espessura óptica (valores de em = 0.66 µm). A integral da FRD ao longo do espectro solar é da ordem de -60 w m-2 em média para uma região de superfície heterogênea (incluindo áreas urbanas e vegetação) em Cuiabá. A FRD sobre áreas urbanas se mostrou significativamente menor que em áreas de vegetação devido à sua maior reflectância de superfície. / In situ measurements in the Amazon Basin showed a large variety of aerosol particles in the atmosphere due mainly to biogenic and biomass burning sources. Particles from biomass burning are generally composed of a mixture of spherical and non-spherical particles, and chain aggregates of thousands of tiny black carbon (BC) spherules. The morphology and structure of smoke particles from biomass burning are determined by the type of fuel, the phase of combustion, and the age of the smoke. This structure changes due to interactions with water vapor, cloud droplets and due to condensation of gases on its surface (eg. sulfates and organic gases). Non-spherical and large (tens of micrometers) fluffy aggregates become more compacted and increasingly spherical with age. They are generally found only near the source of flaming-phase combustion, which suggests that particle compaction occurs in a relatively short time (likely, few hours) after release from a biomass fire. This change in morphology produces a significant change in the optical properties of these particles, enhancing its absorption and scattering cross sections. Scanning electron microscope photographs of aerosol particles from biomass burning taken in parallel with other physical measurements show correlation between morphology and the absorption coefficients suggesting the effect of the particle shape on optical properties. Intensive microphysical properties of the particles were measured and modeled in this work for biomass burning and biogenic aerosols. Despite of completely distinct sources, biogenic and biomass burning aerosols show some important similarities in chemical composition and particle sizes. Angström coefficients and backscattering ratios of biogenic aerosols were also found in the same range as biomass burning particles, but the scattering and absorption efficiencies, as well as single scattering albedo showed significantly different values. A new methodology was developed to obtain the spectral direct radiative forcing (DRF) by aerosol particles using remote sensing images and new parameters were defined in this work to access the radiative impact of the aerosols. Spectral measurements with the AVIRIS spectrometer (224 wavelengths between 0.38 and 2.5 µm) onboard the NASA-ER2 aircraft during the SCAR-B experiment (Smoke Clouds and Radiation -Brazil) have been used in this work to derive the spectral single scattering albedo of the aerosol particles, the aerosol optical thickness, and .the DRF.Significant values of spectral direct radiative forcing were found between 0,25 and 1.6 µm with a peak about -200 W m-2 µm-1 for a wavelength around 0.5 µm, per unity of optical depth (optical depth values at 0.66 µm). The integral over the whole solar spectrum averaged over heterogeneous surfaces (urban areas and vegetation) is about -60 W m-2 for the studied region (Cuiabá). The DRF over urban areas is smaller than over vegetation due to its brighter surface reflectance.

The main goal of thesis is to explore the changing global epidemiological situation depending on climate changes and to map trends of changes in epidemiological situation. A sub-objective is to find out if there are differences in the geographical distribution of the incidence of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the period 2004-2014 next to map surveillance, to propose options for improving prevention in a changing geographical distribution, to describe cases of the diseases reported in the Czech Republic, to determine whether in the Pilsen and Budweis medical facilities are routinely investigating also on detection of WNV infection and finally to chart the WNV infection rate and its causes in horse breeding. Influence of climate change on distribution of WNV can be very well observed. This change is mainly due to settlement of new countries by the originator and also reservoirs which are moving further to the north or south becouse of climate. Distribution of WNV to the new countries is also supported by the changing of landscape, mainly due to the changing climate. The changes of migration routes of migratory birds which are also affected by climate changes have also the effect on changing geographic distribution. The globalization of the world is also mostly responsible for change of distribution. The change of epidemiological situation is given by that the virus attacks organisms that did not meet with virus until now. Therefore, there is a change in the clinical picture and more serious forms of the disease appear in the greater degree than before. Official statistics numbers of diseases in the EU in 2008-2012 published by the ECDC revealed that number of illnesses depends on the global climate changes and also on the climate in a current year. Data for year 2010 clearly reveal how big influence extreme temperatures have on the number of reported illnesses. With regard to prevention in the Czech Republic, as a main step was to designed the informing of tourists. The substantial part of the repressive measures against WNV disease is to stop transmission of WNV blood transfusions. This deals with in annex 3of Decree no. 143/2008 Coll.. Currently the draft of methodological instruction which sets out the procedure for assessing the risk of WNV infection and the procedure to reduce the risk of transmission of the virus through blood transfusions is in the comment procedure. By the survey of health facilities was found out that it is according the legislation, specifically Decree 233/2011 Coll.. Private microbiology and serology laboratories in Pilsen and Budweis do not test on positivity of WNV. Targeted surveillance of horse WNV in Czech Republic is doing from 2011. In 2011 2013 it was 4 5 WNV positive horses, in 2014 it was already 13 horses from a total of 783 horses tested positive WNV. Various geographic distribution of horses and high specific antibody titers according to veterinarians indicate increasing activity of the virus in the Czech Republic and the possible expansion of WNV into new areas. The thesis also analyzes three cases of WNV disease that have been imported to the Czech Republic from the USA, Tanzania and from Cyprus. In thesis is also described the first autochthonous case of WNV infection in the Czech Republic in 2013 which demonstrates the changing epidemiological situation in the country. Based on the obtained data is appreciable that the virus will be with regard to a changing climate and increased globalization spread to new areas in which will be probably cause diseases with serious clinical course. Whereas the virus has a tends to mutation it is expected also a gradual change of the clinical picture. To stop the spread of the virus should be carried out surveillance at all levels. Insomuch as is not in current time human vaccine available to curb the spread of the The essential elements od prevention includes informing tourists traveling to high-risk countries and countries potentially risky.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:14:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5209.pdf: 2337691 bytes, checksum: c2c9421ebd99ae696c125edd08ccc0ca (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-25 / Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais / It has been observed that the same governance model was configurated in the brazilian climate change policy, characterizing by this policy to the responsible institutions three factors in comon: (1) institutional diversity, (2) cooperation e (3) political competition. Trough a Case Study, it was attempted to focus, as an unity of analisys, on the Interministerial Comission on Global Climate Change (CIMMGC in portuguese) to observe in what measure the bigger institutional diversity, characterized by the elevated inclusiveness of political actors and the accountability reinforcement in the political decision making process, promoted more cooperation and less political competition among the political actors involved in CIMMGC. In this scenery, the research question was: In the contexto of a diverse institutional composition and of it s political decision making process rules (supported by the unanimity rule), why, by observing the political decision making processo f the CIMMGC, wasn t possible to point a decision making paralisys or an institutional immobility in it s acitivities? The Hypothesis was that the institutional drawing of the CIMMGC worked as a political vector of dynamism through the decision making rules developed during the institutionalization of brazilian climate change policy. Were applied in this study, specially, two integrated data collection strategies: (1) query and analisys of institutional reports issued specially by the CIMMGC, but also issued by other institutional organisms vinculated to the governance of brazilian climate change policy and (2) interviews in depth and semi-structured with policy makers directly involved with national climate change policy and specially allocated in the CIMMGC. The results pointed that a bigger political inclusiveness in the decision making process of the brazilian climate change policy incurred in no absence of democratic governance. In the case of the CIMMGC, the brazilian climate change policy consensual model reinforced the accountability mechanisms in the political process without losing the institutional dynamism and the decision making capability in the political goals granted to the institution by the Climate Change National Policy and Plan. / Observou-se que um mesmo modelo de governança foi configurado na política brasileira de mudança do clima, caracterizando em comum às instituições responsáveis por essa política, três fatores: (1) diversidade institucional, (2) cooperação e (3) competição política. Como um Estudo de Caso, buscou-se tomar, como unidade de análise, a Comissão Interministerial de Mudança Global do Clima (CIMMGC) para efeito de observar em que medida a maior diversidade institucional, caracterizada pela elevada inclusividade de atores políticos e o reforço de accountability no processo político decisório, fomentou mais cooperação e menos competição política entre os atores políticos envolvidos na CIMMGC. Diante desse cenário, a pergunta de pesquisa foi: diante de uma composição institucional diversa e das regras de seu processo decisório (amparadas na regra de unanimidade), por que, ao se observar o processo político da CIMMGC, não foi possível apontar uma paralisia decisória ou o imobilismo institucional em suas atividades? A hipótese foi que o desenho institucional da CIMMGC funcionou como vetor político de dinamismo pelas regras decisórias desenvolvidas ao longo da institucionalização da política brasileira de mudança do clima. Foram aplicadas nesta pesquisa, especialmente, duas estratégias para a coleta de dados integrados: houve a (1) consulta e análise de relatórios institucionais emitidos especialmente pela CIMGC, mas também pelos demais organismos institucionais vinculados à governança da política brasileira de mudança do clima e; (2) entrevistas em profundidade e semi-estruturadas com os policy makers envolvidos diretamente com a política nacional de mudança do clima e especialmente alocados na CIMMGC, o que permitiu mapear o caráter horizontal no processo de tomada de decisão da CIMMGC. Os resultados apontaram que a maior inclusividade política no processo decisório da política brasileira de mudança do clima não incorreu em ausência de governabilidade democrática. No caso da CIMMGC, o modelo consociativo da política brasileira de mudança do clima reforçou mecanismos de accountability no processo político sem perder, em contrapartida, dinamismo institucional e capacidade decisória nos objetivos políticos outorgados à instituição pela Política e Plano Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:14:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 4334.pdf: 1106898 bytes, checksum: f4eb1ee25fbd44abb2f597435f8d918b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-02-28 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / This study aims to understand the process of formation and incorporation of climate agenda in environmental and urban policy areas of São Paulo, including contextualizing and the formulation of the law that established the Climate Change Policy in São Paulo (Law 14,933 of June 5, 2009). To do so, based on theoretical assumptions of agenda-setting, we will hold: a literature review of international literature on the mode of action of ICLEI's CCP campaign, qualitative analysis of interviews with some actors who participated in the formulation of the law; survey of the actions converging local municipality to tackling global climate change, and analysis of organizations and instruments created by law. We found that the climate agenda is being built gradually in urban and environmental policy of the city of São Paulo, since 2003, when the municipality joined the Cities Campaign for Climate Protection of Transnational Network of Local Governments, ICLEI and as a result, produced its first inventory of greenhouse gases emissions (GHGs). With the publication of the inventory in 2005, the City received indications of its priorities regarding GHG mitigation. We identified that between the years 2005 to 2007, the political actions in dealing with an interface to local causes and consequences of climate change were expanded in São Paulo. The implementation of urban and environmental policies with climate agenda provided a political learning that led to the formulation of the law 14,933. The law, in turn, provided an institutional legacy that structure the definition of policy problems, policy formulation and the influence of outside groups for the continued inclusion of the climate agenda in the formulation of policies in the municipality. / Esse trabalho tem por objetivo entender o processo de formação e incorporação da agenda climática na política ambiental e urbana do município de São Paulo, incluindo e contextualizando o processo de formulação da Lei que definiu a Política de Mudanças Climáticas do Município de São Paulo (lei 14.933 de 05 de junho de 2009). Para tanto, com base nos pressupostos teóricos de agenda-setting, realizamos: revisão bibliográfica da literatura internacional sobre o modo de atuação da campanha CPC do ICLEI; análise qualitativa de entrevistas com alguns atores que participaram no processo de formulação da lei; levantamento das ações locais do município convergentes com o enfrentamento das mudanças climáticas globais; e análise das organizações e instrumentos criados pela lei. Observamos que a agenda climática vem sendo construída paulatinamente na política ambiental e urbana do município de São Paulo, desde 2003, quando a Prefeitura aderiu à Campanha Cidades para Proteção do Clima da Rede Transnacional de Governos Locais ICLEI e, como resultado, elaborou seu primeiro inventário de emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE). Com a publicação do inventário em 2005, o Município obteve indicações das suas prioridades quanto à mitigação de GEE. Identificamos que, entre os anos de 2005 a 2007, as ações políticas com interface no enfrentamento às causas e consequências locais das mudanças climáticas foram ampliadas no município de São Paulo. A implementação de políticas urbanas e ambientais aderentes à agenda climática proporcionou um aprendizado político que possibilitou a formulação da lei 14.933. A lei, por sua vez, proporcionou um legado institucional que estrutura a definição dos problemas políticos, a formulação de políticas e a influência de grupos externos para a contínua inserção da agenda climática na formulação de políticas no município.

A atividade humana tem contribuído com as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) associadas, principalmente, com queima de combustíveis fósseis e mudanças no uso da terra. Assim, se faz necessário que sejam adotadas medidas visando o retardamento dos efeitos das mudanças climáticas. As florestas exercem papel essencial no balanço de carbono principalmente por funcionarem como sumidouros de CO2. Por outro lado, se desmatadas, promovem emissões e liberam parte do carbono estocado. A quantidade de biomassa florestal e o teor de carbono podem variar em função do tipo florestal, bem como de sua localização. Entretanto, fator importante diz respeito à confiabilidade dos dados mensurados neste tipo de pesquisa. A biomassa e o carbono da parte aérea podem ser determinados via método destrutivo, ou estimados via método não destrutivo. A construção do Rodoanel Mário Covas trecho norte e a supressão de uma área de Mata Atlântica possibilitou a realização de estudo de biomassa da parte aérea via método destrutivo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar o tamanho e forma de parcelas, a intensidade amostral, quantificar a biomassa e o carbono na parte aérea, comparar métodos destrutivos e não destrutivos para a quantificação de biomassa e carbono na parte aérea, estudar a variação da densidade básica da madeira das espécies nas diferentes classes de DAP e grupos sucessionais e comparar as medidas de altura total e DAP obtidas a campo no inventário com as medidas coletadas após o corte. O tamanho mais conveniente de parcela foi 400 m 2, com forma retangular e dimensão de 10 x 40 m. A intensidade amostral variou entre 39 e 75 unidades amostrais. A biomassa da parte aérea obtida, via método destrutivo, foi de 188,3 Mg ha-1 e o carbono, 85,1 Mg ha-1. A biomassa estimada por equações alométricas da literatura foi subestimada, quando comparada ao valor real, obtido via método destrutivo. As menores classes de DAP apresentaram as maiores densidades básicas da madeira. A densidade básica foi 0,488 g cm-3 na média das espécies. A porcentagem de carbono contida nos troncos e galhos não diferiu entre as classes de DAP. O teor de carbono foi 45,41%, na média dos troncos e galhos. Espécies pioneiras acumularam maior quantidade de biomassa e carbono nos galhos e apresentaram maior densidade básica que as não pioneiras. A utilização dos dados coletados na fase de inventário e após o corte não afetaram os valores de biomassa estimados. / Human activity has contributed to the emission of greenhouse gases associated mainly with burning fossil fuels and changes in land use. Thus, it is necessary that measures be adopted to delay the effects of climate change. Forests play an essential role in the carbon balance mainly acting as CO2 sinks. On the other hand, if they are deforested, they will promote emissions and release some of the stocked carbon. The amount of forest biomass and the carbon content may vary depending on the forest type and its location. However, an important factor is about the reliability of the data measured in this type of research. Aboveground biomass and carbon can be determined via destructive method or estimated by non-destructive method. The construction of the north extension of Mário Covas Road and the suppression of an Atlantic forest area made it possible to carry out study of the aboveground biomass via destructive method. The goal of this work was to study the size and shape of plots, the sampling intensity, their aboveground biomass and carbon, compare destructive and non-destructive methods for the quantification of biomass and carbon, study the variation of wood basic density in the species in different classes of diameter of trunk at breast height (DBH) and successional groups and compare the total height and DBH measures obtained on field in the inventory with the measures taken after the cut. The most convenient plot size is 400 m2, with rectangular shape and size of 10 x 40 m. The sampling intensity varied between 39 and 75 sample units. The aboveground biomass obtained, via destructive method, was 188.3 Mg ha-1 and carbon, 85.1 Mg ha-1. The biomass estimated by allometric equations of the literature was underestimated compared to the real value obtained via destructive method. Smaller DBH classes had the highest wood basic density. The basic density was 0.488 g cm-3 in average of the species. The percentage of carbon contained in the trunks and branches did not differ between the DBH classes. The carbon content was 45.41%, in the average of the trunks and branches. Pioneer species accumulated higher amount of biomass and carbon in the branches and had a higher wood basic density than non pioneers species. The utilization of data collected in the inventory phase and after the cut did not affect the estimated biomass values.

Submitted by Edineia Teixeira (edineia.teixeira@unioeste.br) on 2018-03-05T18:27:51Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Fernando_Martins2017.pdf: 3146180 bytes, checksum: a1dcde101c1559cda9b93c488d0f17e9 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-05T18:27:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Fernando_Martins2017.pdf: 3146180 bytes, checksum: a1dcde101c1559cda9b93c488d0f17e9 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / For species that do not exhibit parental care such as oviparous insects, choosing a favorable oviposition site is of utmost importance for brood success. Niche theory predicts that crickets should show a bell-shaped oviposition response to substrate humidity. However, at least one lab experiment with mole crickets (Orthoptera: Gryllotalpoidea) indicated a linear oviposition responses to substrate humidity. The house cricket Acheta domesticus (Orthoptera: Grylloidea) also shows a linear juvenile body growth response to substrate humidity, which suggests a positive relationship between humidity and oviposition preference. We evaluated the relationship between oviposition frequency and substrate humidity in forest litter- dwelling species, primarily composed of Ubiquepuella telytokous, using field experiments. We also tested oviposition responses of U. telytokous to substrate humidity in a laboratory experiment. We offered oviposition substrates that varied in humidity from zero percent to maximum substrate water absorption capacity. Oviposition preference was estimated using presence or absence of eggs as a binary response variable, adjusted logistic regression (GAMM) was used to test for non-linear responses, and GLMs were used to test linear responses. We found that oviposition probability increased linearly with substrate humidity for U. telytokous in both field and lab experiments. Our results demonstrate the importance of substrate humidity as an ecological niche requirement for this species. This work bolsters knowledge of litter cricket life history association with humidity, and suggests that litter crickets may be particularly threatened by changes in climate that favor habitat drying. / Para espécies que não apresentam cuidados parentais, tais como insetos ovíparos, a escolha de um local de oviposição favorável é de extrema importância para o sucesso da prole. A teoria do nicho prevê que a oviposição de grilos deve mostrar uma resposta em forma de sino à umidade do substrato. Entretanto, pelo menos um experimento de laboratório com paquinhas (Orthoptera: Gryllotalpoidea) indicou uma resposta de oviposição linear em relação a umidade do substrato. O grilo doméstico Acheta domesticus (Orthoptera: Grylloidea) também apresenta um crescimento corporal dos juvenis linear em relação a umidade do substrato, o que sugere uma relação positiva entre umidade e preferência de oviposição. Aqui testamos a relação entre a frequência de oviposição e a umidade do substrato, em espécies de grilos de serrapilheira florestal, primariamente compostas Ubiquepuella telytokous, utilizando experimentos de campo. Também testamos as respostas de oviposição de U. telytokous em experimentos de laboratório. Oferecemos substratos de oviposção que variaram a umidade de zero porcento até a capacidade máxima de absorção do substrato. A preferência de oviposição foi estimada utilizando presença ou ausência de ovos como uma variável resposta binária, regressão logística ajustada (GAMM) para testar respostas não lineares, e GLMs para testar respostas lineares. Verificamos que a probabilidade de oviposição aumenta linearmente com a umidade do substrato para U. telytokous, nos experimentos de campo e laboratório. Nossos resultados demonstram a importância da umidade do substrato como requisito de nicho ecológico para Ubiquepuella telytokous. Este trabalho reforça o conhecimento da associação de história de vida de grilos com a umidade, e sugere que esses organismos podem ser particularmente ameaçados por mudanças climáticas que tornam habitats áridos.

Dans le contexte du changement climatique contemporain, les analyses climatiques à l’échelle régionale présentent un intérêt majeur car elles permettent de rendre compte des hétérogénéités spatiales des évolutions climatiques. Notre étude propose une analyse de l’évolution climatique récente au Maroc et en Mauritanie et leur proche océan. Elle s’intéresse à cette évolution dans les basses couches de l’atmosphère en tenant compte des conditions thermiques (les températures de l’air à 2m), de la dynamique climatique côtière (TSM et upwelling), puis de la dynamique atmosphérique constituée des pressions atmosphériques et des vents de surface. Pour la totalité des paramètres météorologiques étudiés, la variabilité et l’évolution interannuelles sont analysées aux échelles annuelle et mensuelle / saisonnière. Les analyses statistiques basées principalement sur les régressions linéaires et la segmentation d’Hubert ont permis de monter que l’espace maroco-mauritanien a connu au cours des six dernières décennies (1950-2008), des évolutions climatiques contrastées tant à l’échelle spatiale qu’à l’échelle saisonnière. Les résultats les plus marquants se résument dans :•une évolution thermique contrastée avec un réchauffement plus marqué au Maroc et au Sahara qu’en Mauritanie, •augmentation de l’intensité de l’upwelling sur la côte marocaine et diminution de son intensité sur la côte mauritanienne,•une forte et dominante tendance à la hausse de la pression atmosphérique laissant apparaître notamment un renforcement de l’A.A méditerrano-saharienne et un affaiblissement de la dépression thermique saharienne en été,•une tendance générale à la baisse de la vitesse des vents, qui se produit parallèlement à une rotation de la rose des vents du nord au nord-est pour les alizés maritimes et du nord à l’est pour les alizés continentaux.La segmentation d’Hubert a permis de confirmer que les fluctuations climatiques majeures dans l’espace maroco-mauritanien et son proche océan se sont produites pendant les années 1970. Cela se vérifie à l’échelle des températures de l’air, de l’upwelling, et des PNM, tandis que pour les vents, la rupture qui a touché la vitesse et la fréquence des directions principales des alizés s’est produite entre les années 1960 et 1970. Une seconde période de rupture est mise en évidence par la segmentation d’Hubert. Elle concerne les années 1990 dans les séries chronologiques des températures de l’air et des PNM. / In the context of global contemporary climate change, regional climate analyses are of major interest as they allow accounting for spatial heterogeneity of climate change. Our study provides for an analysis of recent climate changes in Morocco and Mauritania and their nearby Ocean. It focuses on the evolution in the lower layers of the atmosphere, taking into account the thermal conditions (air temperature at 2m), the coastal climate dynamics (sst and upwelling), and atmosphere dynamics made of atmospheric pressures and surface winds. For all the studied meteorological parameters, the variability and inter-annual evolution are analyzed on monthly and annual / seasonal scales.Statistical analyzes based primarily on linear regressions and Hubert's segmentation helped show that the Moroccan-Mauritanian zone has experienced over the past six decades (1950-2008), contrasting climate changes both at the spatial and seasonal scales. The most significant results are hereunder summarized :•A contrasted thermal evolution with a more pronounced warming in Morocco and the Sahara than in Mauritania,•Increase the intensity of the upwelling on the Moroccan coast and decrease on the Mauritanian,•A strong and dominant upward trend in atmospheric pressure, resulting, in particular, in a Mediterrano-Saharan AA strengthening and lower Saharan thermal pressure during summer,•A general downward trend in wind speed, in parallel with a rotation of the compass rose from north to northeast for marine trade winds, and from north to east for the continental trade winds.Hubert’ Segmentation confirmed that the major climatic fluctuations in the Moroccan-Mauritanian area and their nearby ocean occurred during the 1970s. This is true at the level of air temperatures, the upwelling, and SLP, while the disruption that affected the wind speed and the frequency of the main directions of the trade winds occurred between 1960 and 1970. A second period of disruption has been demonstrated by Hubert’s segmentation. It relates to the 1990s in air temperature chronological series and SLP.

In this thesis, we investigated modes of intraseasonal variability (ISV) observed in the Indian monsoon rainfall and how these modes modulate rainfall over India. We identified a decreasing trend in the intensity of low-frequency intraseasonal mode with increasing strength in synoptic variability over India. We also made an attempt to understand the reason for these observed trends using numerical simulations. In the first part of the thesis, satellite rainfall estimates are used to understand the spatiotem-poral structures of convection in the intraseasonal timescale and their intensity during boreal sum-mer over south Asia. Two dominant modes of variability with periodicities of 10–20-days (high-frequency) and 20–60-days (low-frequency) are found, with the latter strongly modulated by sea surface temperature. The 20–60-day mode shows northward propagation from the equatorial In-dian Ocean linked with eastward propagating modes of convective systems over the tropics. The 10–20-day mode shows a complex space-time structure with a northwestward propagating anoma-lous pattern emanating from the Indonesian coast. This pattern is found to be interacting with a structure emerging from higher latitudes propagating southeastwards. This could be related to ver-tical shear of zonal wind over northern India. The two modes exhibit variability in their intensity on the interannual time scale and contribute a significant amount to the daily rainfall variability in a season. The intensities of the 20–60-day and 10–20-day modes show significantly strong inverse and direct relationship, respectively, with the all-India June–September rainfall. This study also establishes that the probability of occurrence of substantial rainfall over central India increases significantly if the two intraseasonal modes simultaneously exhibit positive anomalies over the region. There also exists a phase-locking between the two modes. In the second part of the thesis, we investigated the changing nature of these intraseasonal modes over Indian region, and their association with extreme rainfall events using ground based observed rainfall. We found that the relative strength of the northward propagating 20–60-day mode has a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3–9 days) variability. The decrease in the low-frequency ISV is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by a significant increasing trend in the percentage of extreme events in break phase. We also find a significant rise in occurrence of extremes during early- and late-monsoon months, mainly over the eastern coastal regions of India. We do not observe any significant trend in the high-frequency ISV. In the last part of the thesis, we used numerical simulations to understand the observed changes in the ISV features. Using the atmospheric component of a global climate model (GCM), we have performed two experiments: control experiment (CE) and heating experiment (HE). The CE is the default simulation for 10 years. In HE, we prescribed heating in the atmosphere in such a way that it mimics the conditions for extreme rainfall events as observed over central India during June– September. Heating is prescribed primarily during the break phase of the 20–60-day mode. This basically increases the number of extremes, majority of which are in break phase. The design of the experiment reflects the observed current scenario of increased extreme events during breaks. We found that the increased extreme events in the HE decreased the intensity of the 20–60-day mode over the Indian region. This reduction is associated with a reduction of rainfall in active phase and increase in the length of break phase. A reduction in the seasonal mean over India is also observed. The reduction of active phase rainfall is linked with an increased stability of the atmosphere over central India. Lastly, we propose a possible mechanism for the reduction of rainfall in active phase. We found that there is a significant reduction in the strength of the vertical easterly shear over the northern Indian region during break–active transition phase. This basically weakens the conditions for the growth of Rossby wave instability, thereby elongating break phase and reducing the rainfall intensity in the following active phase. This study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario, which is further tested in a modeling study. The results presented in this thesis will provide a pathway to understand, using observations and numerical model simulations, the ISV and its relative contribution to the Indian summer monsoon. It can also be used for model evaluation.

En Europe, l'augmentation des températures moyennes de surface de l'air projetée au cours du 21ème siècle s'accompagne d'une augmentation des extrêmes chauds et d'une diminution des extrêmes froids. Dans les dernières décennies, des indices témoignent déjà de ces changements, comme l'établissement récurrent de nouveaux records de chaleur ou l'augmentation des canicules. Nous étudions l'évolution des extrêmes journaliers de température au cours du 20ème et du 21ème siècle en France et en Europe, et ce en termes d'occurrence et d'intensité. Un intérêt particulier est aussi porté aux mécanismes responsables de ces futurs extrêmes climatiques, ainsi qu'aux futures températures maximales. Nous nous intéressons tout d'abord à l'évolution des records journaliers de température à partir d'observations et de modèles de climat. Entre 1950 et 1980, l'évolution théorique des records dans le cadre d'un climat stationnaire représente correctement l'évolution observée des records chauds et froids. Depuis les années 1980, un écart à ce climat stationnaire est observé, avec respectivement une augmentation et une diminution de l'occurrence des records chauds et froids. Les modèles climatiques suggèrent une accentuation de ces changements au cours du siècle. L'occurrence moyenne des records chauds à la fin du siècle présente une forte augmentation par rapport aux premières décennies de la période observée. L'augmentation la plus importante des records chauds est projetée en été, en particulier dans la région méditerranéenne. Quant aux records froids, les modèles indiquent une diminution très importante de leur occurrence, avec une occurrence quasi-nulle dans les dernières décennies. Les variations observées d'occurrence de records sont, au début du 21ème siècle, toujours dans l'éventail des fluctuations de la variabilité interne du climat. Au cours du siècle, l'émergence de l'influence anthropique de ces fluctuations est détectable dans l'évolution des records chauds et froids en été, et ce respectivement autour des décennies 2030 et 2020. À l'horizon de la fin du siècle, les changements moyens d'occurrence de records ne peuvent pas être uniquement expliqués par des fluctuations naturelles. Nous nous sommes ensuite intéressés aux futures températures estivales extrêmes, ainsi qu'aux canicules intenses qui peuvent être à l'origine de ces extrêmes. Pour cela, l'utilisation de modèles climatiques globaux est associée à la modélisation climatique régionale et à des stations d'observations en France. Tout d'abord, l'augmentation maximale des valeurs maximales des records journaliers de température en été en France est estimée à partir d'une simulation régionale à haute résolution spatiale. À l'horizon 2100, les projections indiquent une augmentation maximale de ces valeurs extrêmes en été comprise entre de 6.6°C et 9.9°C selon les régions de la France. La comparaison de ces projections avec un ensemble de modèles climatiques indique que ces augmentations maximales pourraient être plus importantes. La médiane de la distribution des modèles indique en effet une augmentation maximale de ces valeurs maximales des records journaliers de température de 11.8°C en été et en France. Puis, des expériences de modélisation de canicules intenses du climat européen de la fin du 21ème siècle ont été réalisées à partir d'événements particuliers d'un modèle de climat. Ces expériences ont mis en évidence le rôle des interactions entre le sol et l'atmosphère dans l'amplification des températures extrêmes lors de futurs évènements caniculaire intenses. L'occurrence de telles canicules est d'abord dépendante de la circulation atmosphérique, mais l'intensité des températures peut ensuite être fortement amplifiée en fonction du contenu en humidité des sols avant la canicule, et donc des conditions climatiques des semaines et des mois précédents. / Over the 21st century, the mean increase in surface air temperatures is projected to be associated with an increase in warm temperature extremes and a decrease in the cold ones. Over the last decades, evidence already suggests these changes, as for example recurrent warm record-breaking temperatures or the increase in heatwave occurrence. We investigate the evolution of daily temperature extremes over the 20th and the 21st centuries in France and in Europe, their possible changes in frequency and intensity. We also focus on the mechanisms responsible for these projected climate extremes, as well as the maximum values of temperature extremes at the end of the century. First, we investigate the evolution of daily record-breaking temperatures in Europe based on the observations and an ensemble of climate models. From the 1950s to the 1980s, the theoretical evolution of the records in a stationary climate correctly reproduce the observed one, for both cold and warm records. From 1980, a shift from that theoretical evolution is observed, with an increase in the occurrence of warm records and a decrease in the occurrence of the cold ones. Climate models suggest an amplification of these changes over the century. At the end of the 21st century, the mean number of warm records shows a strong increase compared to the first decades of the observed period. The strongest increase in warm record-breaking temperatures is found in summer, and particularly over the Mediterranean edge. On the contrary, the occurrence of cold record-breaking temperatures is projected to strongly decrease, with almost no new records in the last decades of the century, for all seasons and over the entire European domain. Observed variations of daily record-breaking temperatures are still, at the beginning of the 21st century, consistent with internal climate variability only. Over the century, the anthropogenic influence emerge from these fluctuations in the summer record evolutions, around the 2030 and the 2020 for the warm and cold records respectively. By 2100, the mean changes in record occurrences cannot be explained by the internal climate variability solely, for all seasons and over the entire European domain. Then, we investigate future extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st century, as well as severe heatwaves leading to these extremes. Climate models analyses are associated with regional climate modeling and a French station-based dataset of observations. The summer 21st century evolution of the maximum values of daily warm record-breaking temperatures is first examined in the observations and the high resolution simulation of the regional model. By 2100, an increase of these values is projected, with maximum changes between +6.6°C and +9.9°C in summer among the French regions. These projections assessed from a regional model may underestimate the changes. The multi-model mean estimate of the maximum increase of these values is indeed around +11.8°C in summer over France. Finally, regional modeling experiments of severe heatwaves in the climate of the end of the 21st century in Europe are performed. These severe heatwaves are selected cases from a global climate model trajectory. The experiments results show the role of the soil-atmosphere interactions in the amplification of the extreme temperatures during such future severe warm events. The occurrence of the heatwave is first caused by the atmospheric circulation, but the temperature anomaly can then be amplified according to the soil moisture content before the event, and thus the climatic conditions of the preceding weeks and months.