Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per Kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the globa lmean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: See item for abstract / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sien item vir opsomming

No description available.

Methane hydrates are frozen deposits of methane and water found in high pressure or low temperature sediments. When these deposits destabilize, large quantities of methane can be emitted into the atmosphere. This is significant to climate change because methane has 25 times more greenhouse gas potential than Carbon Dioxide. Worldwide, it is estimated there are between 2500 and 10000 gigatons of methane stored in hydrate deposits. This represents more carbon than all fossil fuels on Earth. It is estimated that between 200 and 2000 gigatons of methane are stored in hydrates in Arctic waters acutely vulnerable to greenhouse warming. Over the last decade, researchers have identified instances of hydrate destabilization that have already begun. To gain insight into the potential climatic effects widespread hydrate dissociation would have, researchers have examined hydrate dissociation during the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum 55 million years ago as a geologic precedent. In this period, large-scale hydrate dissociation contributed to 5-8 degree Celsius warming worldwide. If such a climatic shift were to transpire today, impacts on society would be enormous. There is currently a debate in the scientific community as to whether the risk of methane hydrate dissociation is relevant to the present generation. One side argues that not enough methane could be emitted into the atmosphere from today’s hydrate sources to have a meaningful impact on climate warming, where the other side contends that more than enough methane could be emitted from present day hydrate deposits to cause significant impacts to the global greenhouse effect. Given the information currently known about hydrates, it is reasonable to conclude there is a moderate risk of widespread destabilization that could impact global climate change in the coming decades. Significant acceleration of the conversion to alternative energies and implementation of geoengineering strategies should be considered.

No description available.

This study is a result from a major investigation about the snow conditions in Sweden since the beginning of the twentieth century. For this purpose, data were analysed with respect to the maximum snow depth and the number of days with snow cover every year from some more than forty selected stations. These stations were then divided into different regions and means were calculated for each series. The data are presented in the shape of different histograms in the four following categories; the whole period in request (1900-2003), the latest 43 years (1961-2003), consecutive mean values for every decade and time series with the highest frequented fluctuations equalized. To be able to detect any trends in the plotted time series two statistical methods, simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall’s test, were applied. The calculations belonging to these tests are showed in tables. To be able to answer the question if the global warming can be related to the latest 3-4 decades predominantly warm winters in the southern part of Sweden I have been studying correlations in snow data with respect to the northern hemispheres mean temperature for the winter season. Corresponding estimates of the correlation coefficients have also been made with respect to the Swedish winter mean temperature. The response of the tests shows that it has not been such dramatic change in the snow conditions in the long run. The magnitude of the slope for the adjusted regression lines implies that the maximum snow depth and the number of days with snow cover in average have been on a fairly constant level during the latest hundred years. When it comes to the maximum snow depth one can distinguish a tendency for a small rise in Götaland and northern Norrland. This is also the only cases which are statistical significant for the period in request (1905-2003). For the shorter period 1961-2003 however, the number of days with snow cover has decreased quite substantially in the southern part of Sweden corresponding to a decrease about 40% in Götaland and 20% in Svealand. The test based on simple linear regression gives significant results in both cases while Mann-Kendall only establishes the trend for Götaland. A closer view of the maximum snow depth for the shorter period (1961-2003) does not give the same response but there is at least evidence for a significant decrease in Svealand in the test with simple linear regression. It corresponds to a decrease of about 30% since 1960. One cannot immediately relate the changes in the Swedish snow climate to the global warming. Estimated values of the correlation coefficient do not even give significant results for the period 1961-2003 despite of the fact that the global mean temperature has raised quite considerably since 1970. The corresponding calculations for the Swedish winter mean temperature show that it plays a very important roll if the precipitation in Götaland and Svealand is coming as rain or snow while it does not matter at all in northern Norrland. / Denna studie är ett resultat av en omfattande undersökning av snöförhållandena i Sverige sedan början av 1900-talet. Jag har för detta ändamål analyserat data av maximala snödjup och antalet dagar med snötäcke per kalenderår från ett 40-tal utvalda stationer. Dessa stationer har sedan delats upp på olika regioner varefter medelvärden har räknats fram i resp. fall. Datamaterialet illustreras här i form av olika stapeldiagram uppdelat på fyra följande kategorier; hela tidsserien, perioden 1961-2003, konsekutiva 10-årsmedelvärden samt en tidsserie med de mest högfrekventa svängningarna bortdämpade. För att kunna bedöma eventuella trender i de uppritade tidsserierna så har jag använt mig av de båda statistiska metoderna enkel linjär regression resp. Mann-Kendall's test. Tillhörande beräkningar redovisas på tabellform. För att svara på frågan om den globala uppvärmningen kan sättas i samband med de senaste 30-40 årens övervägande snöfattiga vintrar i södra Sverige så har jag studerat korrelationen av snödata gentemot det norra halvklotets vintermedeltemperatur. Motsvarande beräkningar av korrelationskoefficienter har också genomförts för den svenska vintermedeltemperaturen Utslaget på testerna visar att det inte har skett så dramatiska förändringar i snöförhållandena på lång sikt. Magnituden på lutningskoefficienten för de anpassade regressionslinjerna tyder på att det maximala snödjupet och antalet dagar med snötäcke i medeltal har legat på en ganska konstant nivå under de senaste hundra åren. När det gäller maximala snödjup så kan man paradoxalt nog se en tendens till en svag uppgång för Götaland och norra Norrland. Det är också de enda fallen som är statistiskt säkerställda för tidsserien som helhet. För den kortare perioden 1961-2003 så kan man däremot se att antalet dagar med snötäcke har minskat relativt kraftigt i södra Sverige motsvarande en nedgång på cirka 40% i Götaland och 20% i Svealand. Test med enkel linjär regression ger signifikanta resultat i båda fallen medan Mann-Kendall endast fastställer trenden för Götaland. En närmare undersökning av det maximala snödjupet för den kortare tidsserien ger dock inte lika tydligt utslag i statistiken men man kan trots allt urskilja en signifikant minskning för Svealand i testet med enkel linjär regression. Det rör sig här om en nedgång på cirka 30% efter 1960. Det går inte att omedelbart relatera förändringarna i det svenska snöklimatet till den globala uppvärmningen. Beräknade värden på korrelationskoefficienten ger inte ens signifikant utslag för perioden 1961-2003 trots att den globala medeltemperaturen har ökat ganska markant sedan 1970. Motsvarande beräkningar för den svenska vintermedeltemperaturen visar att den har väldigt stor betydelse för om nederbörden i Götaland och Svealand faller som regn eller snö medan det för norra Norrland inte har någon nämnvärd påverkan.

Many U.S. conservatives view government mandates to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as a threat to the economy of the developed world. Conservative think tanks have adopted a common rhetoric to instill doubt about proposed mandates in the minds of elected officials, the media, and the public. Using a survey of the websites of 14 conservative think tanks, this thesis analyzes counter-claims to global warming theory to identify rhetorical artifacts that typically characterize conservative responses to issues, and to show how rhetorical theory can help anticipate the nature of such responses. The research identifies unifying speech codes – such as ideographs and commonplaces – that provide the conservative movement’s appeal. The conclusion is that conservative counter-claims to global warming theory are an application of longstanding principles in a new and transformative way; and that the conservative movement is actually a “new social movement” as described by rhetorical theorists.

Recent studies have shown that skepticism about human-caused climate change has increased among people in Europe and the United States. Researchers have tried to examine the causes behind this trend. What some of the studies have found is that there could be connectivity between populistic and nationalistic ideologies and climate skepticism. The purpose of this study has been to, through an idea analysis, examine the American president Donald Trump to see what type of climate sceptic he is according to the typology created by Rahmstorf. Furthermore, the study seeks to understand if the scepticism could be linked to the theories of populism and nationalism. The study is based on interviews done by newspapers and tv-shows but also tweets written by Trump. The study found that Trump’s climate scepticism could be classified into all of Rhamstorf’s different levels of skepticism. It also found that Trump’s argumentation in the interviews and in his tweets could, in accordance with earlier research, be linked to populism and nationalism.

People are exposed to and influenced by persuasive tactics on a daily basis. Greater knowledge on the processes of persuasion would allow for the development of mechanisms that can assist in building people’s resistance to corrupt persuasive attempts and to heighten the use of persuasion for purposes that are beneficial. Despite the extensive amount of research that has been dedicated to investigating these dynamics, understandings remain predominantly inconclusive. It is for these reasons that this study sought to gain a greater understanding of the role of source credibility in persuasive processes. ‘Time’ and ‘source credibility’ were manipulated as the independent variables and used to assess changes in the dependent variable of ‘global warming opinions’. Results showed a general decline in global warming concern across the control and experimental conditions. These results highlighted the role of other interacting variables in persuasive contexts, while also further highlighting the great need for future studies in this domain.

Thesis advisor: Richard Tresch / As global warming became a more urgent issue, the European Union (EU) nations formed the EU emission trading scheme (EU ETS) to regulate carbon emissions. The EU ETS set upper limits for each EU nation’s carbon emission levels in three distinctive phases to gradually decrease the carbon emission levels to a targeted reduction level by 2020. Throughout the paper, I will focus on how independent variables such as accumulated reserves, allocated allowances, the total outstanding supply of carbon emission rights (CERs) in the market, the demand for CERs, energy consumption, and the required reduction amount by 2020 affect the price of CER and the ratio of verified emissions to the 2020 targeted upper limit. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2016. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.