Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The pollution from anthropic activities has produced a pronounced alteration in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. However, because of the position that they occupy in the landscape, limnic environments are susceptible to receive large amounts of pollutants, such as pesticides. This factors combined with the low capability of dilution enhance the harmful effects of toxic substances to the organisms within this habitat. Moreover, the increasing temperature, consequence of global climatic changes, also has a direct and indirect influence on ecological studies, once it affects especially ectothermic organisms which live within continental water bodies. The decrease of water’s oxygen, generally associated with a higher temperature, for example, is responsible for the lower quality of some aquatics habitats, threatening more sensitive organisms. The pollution and variations of temperature have restricted the habitat of many species of crustaceans of the genus Aegla to water springs since they prefer clean and well-oxygenated waters. These variables have influenced the metabolism and behavior of Aegla and might modify its oxidative state and consequently the survival of this species in case of environment alteration. In this way, the aim of this study was to assess the effects of temperature variation, water quality and the oxygen concentration under behavioral and oxidative stress parameters (using biomarkers) on gills, hepatopancreas and muscles of Aegla longirostri. Thus, animals were exposed to 18ºC, 21°C, 24°C and 26ºC for 48 hours under laboratory conditions; analysis of behavior’s feedback, lethality and antioxidant defense system were made. Beyond, we verified the alterations in the antioxidant system induced by moderated (2.5 ppm OD) and severe (1.5 ppm OD) hypoxia and different qualities of water (Anthropized and natural) and also the behavioral responses and lethality. The increase of temperature has affected significantly not just the behavioral response, but also the levels of almost all the antioxidants tested in different tissues. We have demonstrated that the variation of temperature, even in a short-term experiment, can induce an alteration of behavior both on activity and reaction’s time of the crustaceans. The antioxidant activity in animals exposed to moderate and severe hypoxia have increased in relation to those who had constant oxygenation. These results demonstrate that the animals need well-oxygenated waters to survive, and a lower oxygenation affected their antioxidant system and consequently the survival, which could have an impact on populations of A. longirostri. Worst quality waters have the potential of changing the behavior, by decreasing activity at night, which could compromise foraging behavior, for example. It is evident, by the increase in activity and level of most biomarkers evaluated, that these animals are sensitive to the presence of pesticides even in very small quantities. / A poluição consequente de atividades antrópicas tem causado alteração dos ecossistemas terrestres e aquáticos. Porém, devido a posição que ocupam na paisagem, ambientes límnicos estão propensos a receber grandes cargas de poluentes, como por exemplo pesticidas. Isto, aliado a menor capacidade de diluição, potencializa os efeitos nocivos de substâncias tóxicas aos organismos que ali habitam. Além disso, a temperatura em ascendência, reflexo da alteração climática global, também exerce influência direta e indireta em estudos ecológicos, uma vez que afeta especialmente organismos ectotérmicos que vivem em corpos d’água continentais. A diminuição de oxigênio na água, geralmente associada à temperatura mais alta, por exemplo, é responsável pela baixa qualidade de alguns habitats aquáticos, ameaçando organismos mais sensíveis. A poluição e variações na temperatura têm restringido o hábitat de muitas espécies de crustáceos do gênero Aegla às nascentes, visto que possuem preferência por água límpida e bem oxigenada. Estas variáveis influenciam o metabolismo e o comportamento de Aegla, podendo alterar o estado oxidativo e consequentemente a sobrevivência desta espécie caso seu ambiente seja alterado. Desta forma, avaliaram-se os efeitos da variação de temperatura, da qualidade da água e da concentração de oxigênio sob parâmetros comportamentais e de estresse oxidativo (através de biomarcadores) em brânquias, hepatopâncreas e músculo de Aegla longirostri. Os animais foram expostos, em condições laboratoriais, a temperaturas de 18ºC, 21°C, 24°C e 26ºC durante 48 horas; foram analisadas as respostas comportamentais, letalidade e o sistema de defesa antioxidante no crustáceo de água doce A. longirostri. Além disso, verificamos as alterações no sistema antioxidante induzidas por hipóxia moderada (2,5 ppm OD) e grave (1,5 ppm OD) e em águas de diferentes qualidades (antropizadas e naturais) e também as respostas comportamentais e a letalidade. O aumento da temperatura afetou significativamente não só a resposta comportamental, mas também os níveis de quase todos os antioxidantes testados em A. longirostri em diferentes tecidos. Nós demonstramos que a variação na temperatura, mesmo em um experimento a curto prazo, é capaz de induzir uma alteração no comportamento de atividade e no tempo de reação dos crustáceos. A atividade antioxidante em animais expostos à hipóxia moderada e grave aumentou em relação àqueles com oxigenação constante. Esses resultados demonstram que esses animais realmente exigem águas bem oxigenadas para sobreviver e que uma menor oxigenação afetaria o seu sistema antioxidante e consequentemente a sua sobrevivência, podendo assim impactar as populações de A. longirostri. Águas antropizadas têm o potencial de alterar o comportamento desses eglídeos, diminuindo sua atividade durante à noite, podendo comprometer o seu comportamento de forrageio, por exemplo. Além disso, fica evidente, através do aumento da atividade e do nível da maioria dos biomarcadores avaliados, que esses animais são sensíveis à presença de pesticidas mesmo que estes estejam presentes em quantidades muito pequenas.

Introdução O aquecimento global gerado pelas mudanças climáticas tem efeitos negativos na mortalidade cardiovascular e respiratória de populações vulneráveis como os idosos, que têm uma menor capacidade de termo-regulação. São Paulo e Bogotá são duas grandes cidades latino-americanas com similitudes socioeconômicas e climáticas, com populações idosas em aumento, pelo qual são necessários estudos acerca da relação temperatura - mortalidade para a construção de políticas e estratégias com o objetivo de diminuir vulnerabilidades e aumentar a mitigação dos efeitos do clima na saúde de essa população vulnerável. Objetivo caracterizar a influencia da temperatura do ar ambiente na mortalidade cardiovascular e respiratória em idosos (65 anos ou mais) de São Paulo e Bogotá, e analisar as diferenças entre as duas cidades. Métodos Análise de séries temporais para o período 2002 - 2013, foram construídos modelos lineares generalizados do tipo Quase Poisson para estimar a relação das temperaturas máxima, mínima, média e amplitude térmica e a mortalidade cardiovascular e respiratória, de maneira separada em cada cidade; foram usadas variáveis de poluição, umidade relativa do ar, e variáveis do tempo para controle; foram usados modelos não lineares de lags distribuídos (DLNMs) para estudar a relação não linear entre temperatura mortalidade lags. Resultados O ponto de conforto térmico de temperatura média foi de 15.7oC em Bogotá para as duas mortalidades, e de 21.0 e 23.0oC para mortalidade respiratória e cardiovascular em São Paulo, respectivamente. O risco relativo (RR) de morte cardiovascular foi mais alto no percentil 2.5 da temperatura mínima (1.58, IC95 por cento : 1.36-1.83), e no percentil 97.5 da temperatura máxima (1.45, IC95 por cento : 1.19-1.77) para mortalidade respiratória em São Paulo; em Bogotá o frio teve um efeito protetor para mortalidade cardiovascular (RR: 0.34 no percentil 2.5 da temperatura mínima, IC95 por cento : 0.15-0.81). Conclusão O calor e o frio têm um efeito diferenciado na mortalidade cardiovascular e respiratória em São Paulo, em quanto que em Bogotá o frio teve um efeito protetor para mortalidade cardiovascular, o qual é um achado não usual. Estes resultados são instrumentos para a construção de estratégias para diminuir a vulnerabilidade e mitigar os efeitos da temperatura nos idosos. / Introduction - Global warming generated by climate change has adverse effects on the cardiovascular and respiratory mortality of vulnerable populations such as the elderly, who have a lower capacity for thermoregulation. Sao Paulo and Bogota are two major Latin American cities with socioeconomic and climatic similarities with increasing older populations, for which there is a necessity of studies on the relationship temperature - mortality for the construction of policies and strategies in order to reduce vulnerabilities and increase mitigation of climate effects on this vulnerable population health. Objective - To characterize the influence of ambient air temperature in cardiovascular mortality and respiratory in elderly (65 years or more) of São Paulo and Bogota, and analyze the differences between the two cities. Methods - Time series analysis for the period 20022013, with generalized linear models of type Quasi Poisson were built to estimate the ratio of maximum temperature, minimum, average and thermal range and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, separately in each city; pollution, relative humidity, and time variables were used for control; nonlinear models of distributed lags (DLNMs) were used to study the nonlinear relationship between temperature - Mortality - lags. Results - The point of thermal comfort of mean temperature was 15.7oC in Bogota for both mortalities, and 21.0 and 23.0oC for respiratory and cardiovascular mortality in São Paulo, respectively. The relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular death was higher in the 2.5th percentile minimum temperature (1:58, 95 per cent CI: 1.36-1.83), and the 97.5 percentile of the maximum temperature (1.45, 95 per cent CI: 1.19-1.77) for respiratory mortality Sao Paulo; in Bogotá, cold had a protective effect for cardiovascular mortality (RR: 0:34 at percentile 2.5 of minimum temperature, 95 per cent CI: 0.15-0.81). Conclusion - heat and cold have a different effect on the cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in São Paulo, in Bogotá cold had a protective effect for cardiovascular mortality, which is an unusual finding. These results are tools for building strategies to reduce vulnerability and to mitigate the effects of temperature in the elderly.

Esta dissertação tem por objetivo determinar a contribuição de uma unidade habitacional unifamiliar, que utiliza o sol como fonte principal de energia, e adota premissas e estratégias de uma Casa Solar, para a conservação e geração de energia, e redução de emissões de GEE. O Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN) de eletricidade é analisado considerando as fontes de geração, emissões de GEE associadas e as previsões de expansão. São estudados o potencial e as limitações para a inserção da fonte solar fotovoltaica na matriz de energia elétrica brasileira. O consumo de eletricidade do setor residencial é caracterizado, considerando as previsões de aumento da demanda por eletricidade. São elencadas e estudadas as premissas e estratégias de uma Casa Solar, com foco no aproveitamento do sol na arquitetura e no uso de sistema de aquecimento solar (SAS) e sistema fotovoltaico (SFV). Estas premissas e estratégias são demonstradas de forma aplicada por meio do protótipo Ekó House, um modelo de residência de energia zero (REZ) que incorpora as premissas e estratégias de uma Casa Solar. As estratégias bioclimáticas e os sistemas solares são analisados considerando sua aplicação na cidade de São Paulo. A análise qualitativa de estratégias passivas e de baixo consumo para o condicionamento térmico demonstram um potencial de se aumentar em até 70% as horas de conforto no ano. Dentro dos parâmetros definidos e considerando um valor médio de consumo residencial, a adoção de tecnologias mais eficientes para iluminação demonstra um potencial de reduzir o consumo de eletricidade em até 12,5%, e o uso de SAS apresenta um potencial para conservar até 16,3% da eletricidade consumida. A geração de energia elétrica por SFV, associada à adoção medidas de eficiência energética, demonstra potencial para atingir um balanço energético próximo a zero ou positivo. Com isso, estima-se um potencial de se evitar até 1,66 t CO2 de emissões ao ano por unidade habitacional. / This dissertation aims to determine the contribution of a single-family dwelling unit that harnesses the sun as a main energy source, and adopts guidelines and strategies of a Solar House, aiming energy conservation and generation, and GHG emissions reduction. The Brazilian interconnected electricity system is analyzed regarding energy sources, associated GHG emissions and expansion projection. The electricity consumption in residential sector is characterized, considering the projections of increase in electricity demand. The guidelines and strategies for a Solar House are studied, focusing on the harnessing of sun in architecture and solar systems for domestic hot water (DHW) and electricity generation by photovoltaic (PV) systems. The practical application of these guidelines and strategies is exemplified by the Ekó House prototype, a zero energy dwelling housing model that incorporates Solar House guidelines and strategies in its design. Bioclimatic strategies and solar systems are analyzed considering their application in São Paulo city. The qualitative analysis of passive and low consumption strategies points out a potential of increasing 70% of comfort hours in a year. Within the parameters defined and considering the Brazilian average consumption for dwellings, it is shown that the adoption of efficient technologies for lighting can save up to 12.5%, and solar systems for DHW can save up to 16.3% of electricity consumption. The PV electricity generation associated to energy efficiency measures can reach a near zero energy balance or even a positive energy balance. Thus, it is estimated a potential of avoiding up to 1.66 t CO2/year for each dwelling.

Submitted by Cátia Araújo (catia.araujo@unipampa.edu.br) on 2017-01-25T12:23:34Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Influência do aquecimento global antropogênico sobre a temperatura noturna uma abordagem teórica.pdf: 6400608 bytes, checksum: 28665efa34a8803c77a056a46625bec3 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Cátia Araújo (catia.araujo@unipampa.edu.br) on 2017-01-25T12:24:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Influência do aquecimento global antropogênico sobre a temperatura noturna uma abordagem teórica.pdf: 6400608 bytes, checksum: 28665efa34a8803c77a056a46625bec3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-25T12:24:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Influência do aquecimento global antropogênico sobre a temperatura noturna uma abordagem teórica.pdf: 6400608 bytes, checksum: 28665efa34a8803c77a056a46625bec3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-05 / Neste trabalho é analisada a variação da temperatura atmosférica próximo à superfície associada a efeitos antropogênicos, utilizando um modelo atmosférico simplificado. São utilizadas nas análises, alterações locais na cobertura de nuvens e quatro diferentes cenários de concentração atmosférica de dióxido de carbono. Os resultados mostram que as maiores variabilidades de temperatura ocorrem no estado desconectado e na região de transição entre os regimes de escoamento. Em concordância com esforços anteriores, os resultados indicam que grande parte da redução da variação diurna de temperatura (VDT) está relacionada com a bi-estabilidade atmosférica, característica da camada limite estável. Todavia, no regime desconectado, a presença de eventos intermitentes de turbulência pode tornar as variações de temperatura entre os diferentes cenários imprevisíveis. O que pode implicar que seja pouco provável que se consiga prever o comportamento da VDT em regiões caracterizadas pela presença de ventos fracos. / In this work it is analyzed the variation of the atmospheric temperature near the surface associated with anthropogenic effects, by using a simplified atmospheric model. In the analyzes are used local changes in cloud cover and four different scenarios of atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The results show that the highest variability in temperature occur in the disconnected state and in the transition region between the flow regimes. In agreement with previous efforts, the results indicate that the reduction of diurnal temperature range (DTR) is related to the atmospheric bi-stability, which is a characteristic of the stable boundary layer. However, in the disconnected state, the presence of intermittent burts of turbulence may make temperature variations between the different scenarios unpredictable. Which may imply that it should be hard to predict the behavior of the VDT in regions characterized by the presence of weak winds.

Brazil is one of the world\'s largest producers and exporters of soybeans. The oil and meal obtained from grains are important components of biodiesel and animal feed chains. In recent years, international standards and certifications were developed to promote sustainability in the agricultural supply chain. In this context, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in the products life cycle has been the main point of interest to the scientific community and consumers. Few studies have evaluated the GHG emissions in soybean cultivation with specific data for the Brazilian reality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the main sources of GHG in soybean production in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We evaluated 55 farms in the crop years of 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10, accounting for 180,000 hectares of soybean cultivation area and totaling 114 individual situations. The results indicated that the largest source of GHG in the soybean production is the decomposition of crop residues (36%), followed by fuel use (19%), fertilizer application (16%), liming (13%), pesticides (7%), seeds (8%) and electricity consumed at the farms (<1%). The average GHG emissions considering the three crop years were 0.186 kg of CO2eq kg-1 of soybean produced. Based on these results, field experiments were conducted to quantify N2O emissions from the decomposition of soybean crop residues in different climatic regions and harvest periods in Brazil. Our results show that, in field conditions, the contribution of N2O emissions from senesced and desiccated residues that remain on field after soybean harvest are unlikely to represent a significant source of N2O loss above normal background soil emissions. These results were also supported by the laboratory incubation experiment, indicating that the IPCC methodology for estimating N2O emissions from soybean crop residues may provide overestimations for the Brazilian conditions. The results of this study provide relevant and specific information to producers, industry and scientific community regarding the environmental impacts associated with soybean production in Brazil / O Brasil é um dos maiores produtores e exportadores mundiais de soja. O óleo e farelo obtidos dos grãos são componentes importantes das cadeias do biodiesel e ração animal. Nos últimos anos, normas e certificações internacionais foram desenvolvidas para promover a sustentabilidade na cadeia de produção agrícola. Nesse contexto, as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) no ciclo de vida dos produtos tem sido o principal ponto de interesse para a comunidade científica e consumidores. Poucos estudos avaliaram as emissões de GEE no cultivo da soja com dados específicos para a realidade brasileira. O objetivo deste estudo foi determinar as principais fontes de GEE na produção de soja em Mato Grosso, principal estado produtor brasileiro. Foram coletados dados de 55 fazendas nos anos-safra de 2007/08, 2008/09 e 2009/10, totalizando 114 avaliações. Os resultados indicaram que a maior fonte de GEE na produção de soja é a decomposição de resíduos culturais (36%), seguido pelo uso de combustível (19%), aplicação de fertilizantes (16%), calagem (13%), pesticidas (7%), sementes (8%) e eletricidade consumida nas fazendas (<1%). A emissão média considerando os três anos-safra avaliados foi 0,186 kg de CO2eq kg-1 de soja produzido. Com base nesses resultados, foram desenvolvidos experimentos em campo para quantificação das emissões de N2O proveniente da decomposição dos resíduos culturais da soja em diferentes regiões climáticas e períodos de colheita no Brasil. Adicionalmente, foram realizadas incubações em laboratório com materiais de soja em diferentes estágios de desenvolvimento. Os resultados indicaram que resíduos culturais de soja que permanecem no campo após a colheita não representam uma fonte significativa de N2O. Os resultados obtidos neste estudo fornecem informações relevantes para produtores, indústria e comunidade científica quanto aos impactos ambientais associados à cultura da soja no Brasil

Introdução. O aquecimento global resultante do aumento nas concentrações de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) é um dos principais problemas ambientais que o mundo enfrenta atualmente. Atividades humanas estão alterando a composição da atmosfera através da emissão de GEE, particularmente dióxido de carbono (CO2), metano (CH4), óxido nitroso (N2O). Os veículos automotores são uma importante fonte de emissão desses gases, tanto diretamente, através da emissão de gases pelo escapamento, como também através das emissões oriundas do processo de produção e manipulação dos combustíveis usados pelos mesmos. Objetivo. Obter, de uma amostra de veículos típicos da frota do estado de São Paulo, os valores da emissão dos principais gases de efeito estufa (CO2, CH4, N2O) presentes no gás de escapamento de veículos leves de passageiros equipados com motores de ignição por centelha (ciclo Otto), utilizando os combustíveis gasool 22, AEHC e GNV. Métodos. Os veículos foram ensaiados em dinamômetro de chassis, seguindo ciclo de condução e amostragem dos poluentes conforme Norma ABNT NBR 6601, para medição da emissão de escapamento; e pela Norma ABNT NBR 11481, adaptada para a medição das emissões fugitivas de metano. Além dos métodos de análise dos gases prescritos nestas Normas, foram utilizados os métodos FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed) para medição de CO2, CH4 e N2O e NDIR (Non Dispersive InfraRed) para medição de N2O. Resultados. As emissões médias, em g/km, de GEE presentes no gás de escapamento dos veículos ensaiados foram, respectivamente para os veículos movidos a AEHC, gasool 22 e GNV, de 193,1, 193,5 e 170,9 para o CO2; 0,050, 0,051 e 0,590 para o CH4 e 0,017, 0,068 e 0,033 para o N2O. A emissão fugitiva média de CH4 devido a vazamentos no sistema de alimentação dos veículos movidos a GNV ensaiados foi de 0,0412 g/hora. Conclusão. Embora o principal gás de efeito estufa emitido diretamente por automóveis seja sem dúvida o CO2, os gases CH4 e N2O podem contribuir de maneira significativa para a emissão total de GEE e por isso não podem ser desprezados. Apesar de a emissão de GEE por veículos ser apenas uma fração do total da emissão global, o aumento da frota mundial de veículos pode tornar essa fonte de emissão cada vez mais significativa. / Introduction. Global warming resulting from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG´s) is one of the major environmental problems the world faces today. Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere through the emission of GHG´s, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The vehicles are a source of emissions of these gases, both directly, through the emission of exhaust gases, as well as by emissions from the production process and handling of fuels used by them. Objective. To get, for a sample of typical vehicles of the fleet of the state of São Paulo, the values of the emission of the main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) presents in the gas of exhaust pipe of light duty passengers vehicles equipped with engines of spark ignition (Otto cycle), using the fuels gasohol 22, ethanol and CNG. Methods. The vehicles were tested on a chassis dynamometer, following driving cycle and sampling of the pollutants by the Standard ABNT NBR 6601, for measuring the exhaust emission, and the Standard ABNT NBR 11481, adapted for the measurement of fugitive emissions of methane. In addition to the methods of analysis of these gases prescribed by those standards, were used the methods FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed) for measurement of CO2, CH4 and N2O and NDIR (Non dispersive InfraRed) for measurement of N2O. Results. The average emissions of GHG´s in the exhaust gas of the vehicles tested were, respectively for the AEHC, gasohol and CNG vehicles, and expressed in g / km, of 193.1, 193.5 and 170.9 for CO2, 0.050, 0.051 and 0.590 for CH4 and 0.017, 0.068 and 0.033 for N2O. The average CH4 fugitive emissions due to leaks in the supply system of the CNG vehicles tested was 0.0412 g / hour. Conclusion. Although the main greenhouse gas emitted directly by car is undoubtedly the CO2, the gases CH4 and N2O can contribute significantly to the total emission of GHG´s and therefore can not be neglected. Although the emission of GHG´s by vehicles is only a fraction of total global emissions, increasing the fleet of vehicles may make this source of emissions increasingly significant.

The temperature trends and variations of the contiguous United States as a whole and ten designated regions were investigated from 1935 to 1986. To obtain reliable results, 263 stations of the Historical Climate Network (HCN) were used. The HCN stations are corrected for many non-climatic factors which may bias the data. The data for the contiguous United States reveals that the annual, summer, and winter temperatures are free of clear positive or negative trends. Unlike the annual and summer data, winter temperatures exhibit relatively strong variations. Each region was then studyed individually. The summer temperatures for all the ten regions were free of significant trends except Region 2 (Central East Region), which exhibited a significant negative trend. The winter temperatures of the ten regions also lack a statistical significance except for Region 3 (Southeast Region) which shows a significant negative trend. The annual temperatures for the ten regions were also significant except for Regions 2 and 5 (Central East Region and Southern Plains Region). These two regions exhibited significant negative trends. The annual temperature trends for nine of the ten regions were negative while the annual temperatures for the United States as a whole show a positive trend. None of these trends were significant except for Regions 2 and 5. To examine whether or not the differences between the trends of the contiguous United States as a whole and those of the ten regions represents a significant departure from each other, the Expansion Method was used. Applying this method on the annual, summer and winter trends indicated that these differences did not represent a significant departure from those of the contiguous United States. By studying the annual spatial temperature variations of the ten regions it was found that in more than 80% of the years, when the region with the highest positive deviation is in the western United States, the region with the highest negative deviation is in the eastern United States and visa versa.

An investigation into the carbon dynamics and weathering processes occurring in Icelandic glacial-fed streams was conducted during the spring to summer seasonal transition in June of 2017. Four major outlet rives were sampled from the glaciers of Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, Sólheimajökull, and Falljökull. Markarfljót, the major river that Gígjökull, Steinsholtsjökull, and many other glaciers drain into, was also sampled. Longitudinal sampling occurred at all sites to capture downstream trends in the hydrogeochemistry and carbon dynamics. Distinct differences in geochemistry between glacier surface meltwater, sub-glacial waters, pro-glacial lake water, and post-mixed downstream samples were evident in the data. Glacier surface streams were characterized by relatively colder water temperatures, lower specific conductivity, lower total dissolved solids (TDS) and ion concentrations, and more enriched δ13CDIC values than downstream samples. The THINCARB model was used to calculate the total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC), excess partial pressure of carbon dioxide (EpCO2), and percent contribution to TDIC by bicarbonate (HCO3), carbonate (CO3), and carbonic acid and dissolved CO2 (H2CO3). All sites showed a slight decreasing trend in DIC and EpCO2 downstream. The calculated CO2 flux ranged from 1.14 × 107 g/yr to 2.80 × 109 g/yr. The DIC flux ranged from 6.81 × 107 g/yr to 8.44 × 109 g/yr. The average carbon within the CO2 fluxing in these rivers accounts for 0.0004% of the annual, global flux of carbon. The δ13C values were the most variable throughout the study and indicate there are multiple sources influencing the river downstream. This study suggests that, despite previous assumptions and estimations, these glacial-fed rivers act as sources of CO2; however, the samples from this study only provide a snapshot into the carbon flux dynamics during the Spring to Summer seasonal transition. In most samples, HCO3 was the dominant species contributing to DIC content within the rivers, suggesting that DIC is being transported to the ocean as HCO3 but sourced to the atmosphere as CO2. By acting as sources of CO2 to the atmosphere, the process of glaciers melting, which drive geochemical processes within the rivers, are contributing to a positive feedback loop with respect to global warming.

In the early 1990s many scientists claimed that there was a scientific consensus that the anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was causing global warming. Carbon dioxide is produced in far greater quantities than other greenhouse gases. Over 80 percent of the carbon dioxide produced in the United States comes from coal-fired power plants. If global warming is a threat to the welfare and survival of future generations, the United States, as one of the greatest producers of greenhouse gases,has an obligation to reduce its production of these gases. In order to determine the most effective way to reduce the production of greenhouse gases in the United States, this study examines recent efforts by the Clinton and Obama administrations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants.The Clinton and Obama administrations were selected for this study because both administrations were Democratic, and both had avowed political agendas to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For the first two years each administration enjoyed the support of Democratic majorities in both Houses of Congress, and they had similar political support for the remainder of their time in office. This study will show that President Obama’s executive approach to reducing carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants has been more effective than the legislative approach of the Clinton administration. The study will indicate that a scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming and the political will to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants did not exist during the 1990s. The study also shows that, despite the effectiveness of the Obama administration in reducing carbon dioxide emissions, there are many problems with the executive approach to the problem. The study suggests that the Clean Air Act has ceded to much legislative power to the Executive branch of government, and that success in reducing carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants is too dependent on the will of the Executive.

The present study is divided into two parts: the first is on developing the statistical analysis and modeling of mortality (or incidence) trends using Bayesian joinpoint regression and the second is on fitting differential equations from time series data to derive the rate of change of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Joinpoint regression model identifies significant changes in the trends of the incidence, mortality, and survival of a specific disease in a given population. Bayesian approach of joinpoint regression is widely used in modeling statistical data to identify the points in the trend where the significant changes occur. The purpose of the present study is to develop an age-stratified Bayesian joinpoint regression model to describe mortality trends assuming that the observed counts are probabilistically characterized by the Poisson distribution. The proposed model is based on Bayesian model selection criteria with the smallest number of joinpoints that are sufficient to explain the Annual Percentage Change (APC). The prior probability distributions are chosen in such a way that they are automatically derived from the model index contained in the model space. The proposed model and methodology estimates the age-adjusted mortality rates in different epidemiological studies to compare the trends by accounting the confounding effects of age. The future mortality rates are predicted using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. As an application of the Bayesian joinpoint regression, first we study the childhood brain cancer mortality rates (non age-adjusted rates) and their Annual Percentage Change (APC) per year using the existing Bayesian joinpoint regression models in the literature. We use annual observed mortality counts of children ages 0-19 from 1969-2009 obtained from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute (NCI). The predictive distributions are used to predict the future mortality rates. We also compare this result with the mortality trend obtained using joinpoint software of NCI, and to fit the age-stratified model, we use the cancer mortality counts of adult lung and bronchus cancer (25-85+ years), and brain and other Central Nervous System (CNS) cancer (25-85+ years) patients obtained from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data base of the National Cancer Institute (NCI). The second part of this study is the statistical analysis and modeling of noisy data using functional data analysis approach. Carbon dioxide is one of the major contributors to Global Warming. In this study, we develop a system of differential equations using time series data of the major sources of the significant contributable variables of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We define the differential operator as data smoother and use the penalized least square fitting criteria to smooth the data. Finally, we optimize the profile error sum of squares to estimate the necessary differential operator. The proposed models will give us an estimate of the rate of change of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at a particular time. We apply the model to fit emission of carbon dioxide data in the continental United States. The data set is obtained from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), the primary climate-change data and information analysis center of the United States Department of Energy. The first four chapters of this dissertation contribute to the development and application of joinpiont and the last chapter discusses the statistical modeling and application of differential equations through data using functional data analysis approach.