A agricultura está relacionada à concentração atmosférica de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) através dos processos básicos que ocorrem no sistema solo-planta. Mudanças no uso e manejo do solo podem causar tanto efeito negativo como positivo no que se refere à emissão de gases de efeito estufa para a atmosfera. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o fluxo de óxido nitroso e metano em diferentes sistemas de produção agropecuários e na vegetação natural durante as estações do ano, analisando os fatores edafoclimáticos que influenciam as emissões desses gases de efeito estufa. O experimento foi desenvolvido na Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, na cidade de São Carlos - SP (21 ° 57\'S, 47 ° 50\'W), no período de outubro de 2013 a agosto de 2014, onde se avaliou o fluxo de gases de efeito estufa em todas as estações do ano. Foram avaliadas as emissões de óxido nitroso (N2O) e metano (CH4) das pastagens pelo solo dos sistemas de integração lavoura-pecuária floresta - ILPF, integração lavoura-pecuária - ILP, silvipastoril - IPF, pastagem sob manejo intensivo - INT, pastagem sob manejo extensivo - EXT e a vegetação natural (Floresta Estacional Semidecidual do Bioma Mata Atlântica) - Floresta. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso com repetições. Foram usadas duas repetições para cada área de pastagem, que consistiram nos blocos. Os fluxos líquidos de emissão de óxido nitroso e metano foram coletados de amostras de ar provenientes de \"câmaras estáticas\", seis por tratamento, sendo três câmaras (repetições) por bloco (área de pastagem ou parcelas na floresta) em cada amostragem. As coletas das amostras gasosas foram feitas em três tempos (0, 30 e 60 minutos) durante 10 dias em cada estação do ano (meados) e analisadas por cromatografia gasosa. Simultaneamente às coletas de gases, coletaram-se amostras de solo em áreas adjacentes para determinação dos teores de N-total, N-NH+4 e N-NO-3 e da umidade gravimétrica. Nessas amostras foram mensuradas a fertilidade do solo, as densidades aparente e de partícula do solo e a porcentagem do espaço poroso do solo ocupado por água. Nas taxas de emissões de metano, os sistemas de produção intensivo e extensivo tiveram as maiores contribuições, ambos com uma emissão média diária de 0,067g de CH4 ha-1 d-1. O verão foi a estação do ano que apresentou a maior emissão de metano, com uma taxa média de 0,110 g CH4 ha-1 d-1. Em relação ao óxido nitroso, os sistemas de iLP e intensivo, apresentaram os menores índices de emissão, 0,007 g de N2O ha-1 d-1. Entre as estações do ano, não houve diferença estatística na emissão média de N2O. Dentre as variáveis edafoclimáticas correlacionadas com a emissão dos gases, somente temperatura média e máxima apresentaram correlação significativa com o fluxo de N2O ha-1 d-1 e para o metano, temperatura média e mínima, umidade relativa do ar, precipitação, espaço poroso do solo, amônio e nitrato do solo obtiveram correlação com a emissão de CH4 ha-1 d-1, entretanto as correlações foram muito fracas. Houve interação entre as estações do ano e os sistemas de produção para os fluxos dos gases de efeito estufa. As emissões de metano e óxido nitroso foram bastante baixas em todos os sistemas de produção e na floresta e variaram em função das estações do ano, havendo pequenos fluxos de emissão e, em algumas ocasiões, influxos na dinâmica dos gases metano e óxido nitroso. / Agriculture is related to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) through the basic processes that occur in the soil-plant system. Changes in land use and management can cause both negative and positive effects on GHG emission into the atmosphere. The objective of this work was to evaluate the flow of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) in different agricultural production systems and in the natural vegetation during the four seasons, analyzing the edaphoclimatic factors that influence the emissions of these gases. The experiment was carried out at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, in São Carlos, SP (21 ° 57\'S, 47 ° 50\'W), from October 2013 to August 2014. Nitrous oxide and methane emissions were evaluated in the soil of the crop-livestock-forest (CLF), crop-livestock (CL) and livestock-forest (LF) integrated systems, traditional intensively manged pasture (INT), pasture under extensive management - EXT and the natural vegetation - Seasonal Semideciduous Forest of the Atlantic Forest Biome - FOR. The experimental design was in randomized blocks (two replicates per treatment). Nitrous oxide and CH4 emission net flows were collected from air samples from six \"static chambers\" allocated per treatment (three replicates) per block (pasture area or forest plots) at each sampling. The gas samples were collected three times (0, 30 and 60 minutes) and analyzed by gas chromatography. Simultaneously to the gas sampling, soil samples were collected in adjacent areas to determine N-total, N-NH+4 and N-NO-3 contents and gravimetric moisture. The soil fertility, apparent and particle densities and the percentage of soil porous space occupied by water were measured. In the methane emission rates, intensive and extensive production systems had the highest contributions, both with an average daily emission of 0.067g CH4 ha-1 d-1. Summer was the season with the highest methane emission, with an average rate of 0.110 g CH4 ha-1 d-1. In relation to nitrous oxide, the iLP and intensive systems had the lowest emission rates, 0.007 g of N2O ha-1 d-1. Among the seasons, there was no statistical difference in the mean emission of N2O. Among the edaphoclimatic variables correlated with the gas emission, only mean and maximum temperature showed a significant correlation with the N2O ha-1 d-1 flow and for methane, mean and minimum temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, pore space Soil, ammonium and soil nitrate obtained correlation with the emission of CH4 ha-1 d-1, however the correlations were very weak. There was interaction between the seasons of the year and the production systems for the flows of greenhouse gases. The emissions of methane and nitrous oxide were quite low in all production systems and in the forest and varied according to the seasons, with small emission fluxes and, at times, influxes in the dynamics of methane and nitrous oxide gases.

Brazil is one of the world\'s largest producers and exporters of soybeans. The oil and meal obtained from grains are important components of biodiesel and animal feed chains. In recent years, international standards and certifications were developed to promote sustainability in the agricultural supply chain. In this context, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in the products life cycle has been the main point of interest to the scientific community and consumers. Few studies have evaluated the GHG emissions in soybean cultivation with specific data for the Brazilian reality. The aim of this study was to evaluate the main sources of GHG in soybean production in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We evaluated 55 farms in the crop years of 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10, accounting for 180,000 hectares of soybean cultivation area and totaling 114 individual situations. The results indicated that the largest source of GHG in the soybean production is the decomposition of crop residues (36%), followed by fuel use (19%), fertilizer application (16%), liming (13%), pesticides (7%), seeds (8%) and electricity consumed at the farms (<1%). The average GHG emissions considering the three crop years were 0.186 kg of CO2eq kg-1 of soybean produced. Based on these results, field experiments were conducted to quantify N2O emissions from the decomposition of soybean crop residues in different climatic regions and harvest periods in Brazil. Our results show that, in field conditions, the contribution of N2O emissions from senesced and desiccated residues that remain on field after soybean harvest are unlikely to represent a significant source of N2O loss above normal background soil emissions. These results were also supported by the laboratory incubation experiment, indicating that the IPCC methodology for estimating N2O emissions from soybean crop residues may provide overestimations for the Brazilian conditions. The results of this study provide relevant and specific information to producers, industry and scientific community regarding the environmental impacts associated with soybean production in Brazil / O Brasil é um dos maiores produtores e exportadores mundiais de soja. O óleo e farelo obtidos dos grãos são componentes importantes das cadeias do biodiesel e ração animal. Nos últimos anos, normas e certificações internacionais foram desenvolvidas para promover a sustentabilidade na cadeia de produção agrícola. Nesse contexto, as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) no ciclo de vida dos produtos tem sido o principal ponto de interesse para a comunidade científica e consumidores. Poucos estudos avaliaram as emissões de GEE no cultivo da soja com dados específicos para a realidade brasileira. O objetivo deste estudo foi determinar as principais fontes de GEE na produção de soja em Mato Grosso, principal estado produtor brasileiro. Foram coletados dados de 55 fazendas nos anos-safra de 2007/08, 2008/09 e 2009/10, totalizando 114 avaliações. Os resultados indicaram que a maior fonte de GEE na produção de soja é a decomposição de resíduos culturais (36%), seguido pelo uso de combustível (19%), aplicação de fertilizantes (16%), calagem (13%), pesticidas (7%), sementes (8%) e eletricidade consumida nas fazendas (<1%). A emissão média considerando os três anos-safra avaliados foi 0,186 kg de CO2eq kg-1 de soja produzido. Com base nesses resultados, foram desenvolvidos experimentos em campo para quantificação das emissões de N2O proveniente da decomposição dos resíduos culturais da soja em diferentes regiões climáticas e períodos de colheita no Brasil. Adicionalmente, foram realizadas incubações em laboratório com materiais de soja em diferentes estágios de desenvolvimento. Os resultados indicaram que resíduos culturais de soja que permanecem no campo após a colheita não representam uma fonte significativa de N2O. Os resultados obtidos neste estudo fornecem informações relevantes para produtores, indústria e comunidade científica quanto aos impactos ambientais associados à cultura da soja no Brasil

A pecuária de corte que gera emprego e renda para bilhões de pessoas em todo o mundo, vem ganhando destaque pelos impactos negativos causados ao meio ambiente. Isso decorre do sistema extensivo de produção adotado na maioria das regiões produtoras, que consome uma grande quantidade de recursos naturais como terra e água. Nas últimas décadas, a crescente preocupação com o aquecimento global estimulou as investigações sobre as fontes de emissões de Gases Efeito Estufa - GEE. Como resultado dessas investigações tem-se que a pecuária bovina comercial contribui com cerca de 11% das emissões globais causadas pela ação do homem (FAO, 2006). Os gases emitidos por esta atividade são principalmente o metano (CH4), gerado pela fermentação entérica e pelas fezes do animal, e o óxido nitroso (N2O), proveniente das fezes. No Brasil, o rebanho de 180 milhões de cabeças elevou esta atividade a ser a segunda principal emissora de GEE, perdendo apenas para o desmatamento. Os sistemas extensivos também predominam no cenário brasileiro. Uma das formas de mitigar os impactos ambientais é a intensificação da produção através da melhora da qualidade do alimento fornecido aos animais. No caso particular das emissões de GEE isto ocorre porque melhora o processo ruminal e diminui o tempo de vida do animal. Este trabalho teve como objetivo: i) avaliar do ponto de vista econômico o confinamento de animais em fase de terminação, a partir de propriedades modais do Centro-Oeste Brasileiro; e ii) apresentar as mudanças nas emissões de GEE desde a produção do alimento até o animal estar pronto para o abate decorrentes do confinamento, de acordo com a metodologia do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas IPCC. Os resultados mostram que o confinamento dos animais na fase de terminação podem reduzir as emissões em 17%, de 41 kg de CO2 equivalente por quilo de carne produzida (kg CO2 eq./kg carne) para 33 kg CO2 eq./kg carne. Ficou claro também a redução promovida pela melhora no manejo do rebanho. Comparando o pior sistema, em termos das emissões (a pasto e com IEP de 21 meses) com o melhor (confinamento, com IEP de 15 meses) pôde-se perceber uma diferença de 33% na quantidade de CO2 eq/kg carne. Quanto à análise econômica, a intensificação da propriedade, através do confinamento dos animais em fase de terminação, se mostrou inviável para a maioria das propriedades modais apresentadas quando comparado com o sistema a pasto. / The beef cattle industry that generates jobs and income for billions of people around the world has been drawing attention over negative impacts caused to the environment. This is due to the extensive production system adopted in most producing areas, which consumes a large amount of natural resources such as land and water. In recent decades, the growing concern about global warming has stimulated investigations into sources of Greenhouse Gases Emissions GHG. Results show that cattle production accounts about 11% of global emissions caused by human action (FAO, 2006). Gases emitted by this activity are mainly methane (CH4), generated from enteric fermentation and feces, and nitrous oxide (N2O) from feces. In Brazil, the cattle herd comprises 180 million heads and this industry is the second largest in greenhouse gases emissions, only surpassed by deforestation. Extensive systems are also prevalent in the Brazilian scenario. One way to mitigate environmental impacts is to increase production by improving food quality supplied to animals. In the case of GHGs, particularly, this benefit occurs because there is improvement to the ruminal process and reduction of the life span of the animal. This study aimed to: i) assess the economic aspect of confining animals at slaughter phase, originally from modal properties of the Brazilian Center-West, and ii) to show changes in GHG emissions of feedlot system from food production to animal slaughter phase according to the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. Results show that confinement of animals at slaughter phase can reduce emissions by 17% from 41 kg of CO2 equivalent per kg of meat produced (kg CO2 eq. / kg meat) to 33 kg CO2 eq. / kg meat. Gas reduction deriving from management improvements of the heard was also observed. Comparing the worst system in terms of emissions (pasture and IEP 21 months) with the most effective (confinement, with IEP 15 months) we reported a 33% difference in the amount of CO2 eq / kg meat. Regarding the economic analysis, intensifying production through the confinement of animals at slaughter phase, proved to be unfeasible for most modal properties studied when compared with pasture system.

Lofty Hindukush, Karakoram and Himalayan (HKH) mountain ranges centered in the Northern Pakistan are host to some of the world’s largest glaciers outside the Polar Regions and are a source of water for drinking and irrigation to the millions of people living downstream. With the increase in the global temperatures, glaciers are reported as retreating globally. However, some of the glaciers in the Karakoram mountain ranges are reported as surging with positive mass balance, especially since the 1990s. This phenomenon is described as "The Karakoram Anomaly". Various efforts have been made to explain the state and fate of the HKH glaciers in the recent past. However, they are limited to quantification of the change in temperature, precipitation and river runoff, or through their impact on future climate projections. For the HKH region, temperature fluctuations have been out of the phase with hemispheric trends for past several centuries. Therefore, climate change in this region is not solely the temperature effect on melting as compared to other glaciated regions. To identify the reasons for the establishment of the Karakoram Anomaly, monthly mean climatic variables for last five decades, reported from meteorological observatories at the valley floors in HKH region, are analyzed. In addition to the climatic variables of temperature and precipitation, monthly mean synoptic observations reported by meteorological observatories in both morning and afternoon, along with monthly mean radiosonde data are used. From these data the role of different near-surface and upper atmospheric meteorological variables in maintaining the positive mass balance of the glaciers and the development of the Karakoram Anomaly can be explained. An overall warming in the region is observed. The trends in the summer temperatures, which were reported as decreasing a decade ago, are now found as increasing in updated time series. However, the overall gradient is still negative. The winter mean and maximum temperatures are increasing with accelerated trends. Both maximum and minimum temperatures in summer are not diverging anymore and the diurnal temperature range is decreasing in the most recent decade. The afternoon cloudiness is found as increasing throughout the year except for spring, which is indicative of an increase in convective uplifting. Moreover, humidity is increasing all over the region; due to evaporation in the spring, from monsoon moisture advection in summer, and due to the recycling of monsoon moisture in autumn. Furthermore, near-surface wind speed and net radiation in the region are decreasing, explaining the decrease in the summer minimum temperature and the presence of the cloudy skies. The decrease in near-surface wind speed, and net radiation, and increase in water vapor pressure put a limit on the evapotranspiration process. In addition, winter and summer precipitation is increasing. The aridity index, which is based on the ratio of precipitation and reference evaporation, indicates that region is turning moisture surplus and energy deficient. Surface atmospheric pressure and 700 hPa geopotential height is increasing due to warming in the bottom layers of the troposphere. Nighttime inversion in the lower tropospheric layers is decreasing due to warming. Analysis of gridded observed and reanalysis datasets indicates that they are not presenting a signal of change in accordance with the instrumental record. Furthermore, it is found that meteorological conditions during the summer season are still favorable for the sustenance of glaciers whereas more melting may occur in the spring season that may increase the early season river flows and may affect lower lying portions of the debris-free glaciers.

The current study illustrates the utilization of artificial neural network in statistical methodology. More specifically in survival analysis and time series analysis, where both holds an important and wide use in many applications in our real life. We start our discussion by utilizing artificial neural network in survival analysis. In literature there exist two important methodology of utilizing artificial neural network in survival analysis based on discrete survival time method. We illustrate the idea of discrete survival time method and show how one can estimate the discrete model using artificial neural network. We present a comparison between the two methodology and update one of them to estimate survival time of competing risks. To fit a model using artificial neural network, you need to take care of two parts; first one is the neural network architecture and second part is the learning algorithm. Usually neural networks are trained using a non-linear optimization algorithm such as quasi Newton Raphson algorithm. Other learning algorithms are base on Bayesian inference. In this study we present a new learning technique by using a mixture of the two available methodologies for using Bayesian inference in training of neural networks. We have performed our analysis using real world data. We have used patients diagnosed with skin cancer in the United states from SEER database, under the supervision of the National Cancer Institute. The second part of this dissertation presents the utilization of artificial neural to time series analysis. We present a new method of training recurrent artificial neural network with Hybrid Monte Carlo Sampling and compare our findings with the popular auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. We used the carbon dioxide monthly average emission to apply our comparison, data collected from NOAA.

Le changement climatique devrait causer un déclin des populations d'arbres forestiers résidant à des faibles latitudes, en marges chaudes de la distribution de l’espèce. En effet, le réchauffement et le stress dû au changement de l'équilibre hydrique devraient entraîner une réduction de la croissance et de la reproduction des arbres, et une augmentation de la mortalité. Cette thèse de doctorat étudie la structure démographique et génétique d'une population naturelle de hêtre (Fagus sylvatica) située dans un refuge climatique, en marge chaude de la distribution de l’espèce dans le sud-est de la France. Cette population persiste sur les pentes des gorges karstiques le long d’une rivière, le Ciron (Gironde), un lieu qui hébergeait déjà des hêtres pendant la dernière période glaciaire. L'objectif général de la présente thèse est de mieux comprendre comment cette population de refuge climatique a réussi à persister à travers les changements climatiques passés et comment elle pourrait répondre au réchauffement climatique. Le premier chapitre de thèse évalue la structure et la diversité génétique de l'ensemble de la population d'arbres adultes (n = 932) afin d’inférer son histoire postglaciaire. L'étude révèle que la population se compose de deux clusters génétiques avec différents niveaux de diversité. Cela peut refléter une population locale ancienne qui a été successivement colonisée par des génotypes d'immigrés. Le deuxième chapitre de la thèse étudie le système d'accouplement et les modèles de mouvement du pollen au sein de la population. Cela était possible en analysant les progénitures de graines provenant d'arbres mères sélectionnés (n = 30) tout le long de la population. L’étude montre que l'accouplement prédominant entre voisins génétiquement apparentés a entraîné une structure génétique spatiale très forte. Ce phénomène aide à expliquer le brassage lent des deux clusters génétiques présents dans la population. Le troisième chapitre de la thèse consiste en une analyse dendroécologique basée sur un tiers de la population adulte de hêtres (n = 317), plus 79 chênes pédonculés (Quercus robur) échantillonnés pour la comparaison. Les études sur les cernes annuels et la modélisation basée sur les projections climatiques révèlent que la croissance du hêtre a été relativement peu affectée par des conditions climatiques de plus en plus sèches. Une forte augmentation de la croissance radiale a été démontrée pour le hêtre entre 1860 et 1920 qui a atteint un plateau plus tard. Ensuite, la croissance a légèrement diminué depuis les années 1980, et cela ne sera probablement pas accentué à l’avenir d'après les scénarios climatiques futurs de la région. En outre, les analyses à des échelles fines, y compris les isotopes, montrent une grande hétérogénéité de performance entre les arbres en terme de croissance et d'efficience d'utilisation d’eau. Cela est en partie expliqué par la topographie locale de la vallée refuge, et pourrait également être influencé, dans une faible mesure, par le génotype des arbres.La combinaison des deux approches de recherche, la dendroécologie et l’écologie moléculaire, a permis à cette étude d'atteindre des meilleures connaissances sur cette population particulière de hêtres dans la vallée du Ciron et sur sa performance dans un environnement abiotique contraignant. Ces idées représentent des informations de base précieuses pour la conservation et la gestion de cette population et d'autres populations d'arbres forestiers dans un climat en évolution rapide. / Modern climate change is expected to cause a decline of forest tree populations that reside at the current low-latitude margin of species' ranges. Warming and a changing water balance stress are expected to result in reduced tree growth and reproduction and increasing mortality. This doctorate thesis investigates the demographic and genetic structure of a natural beech (Fagus sylvatica) population located in a climate refugium at the species' xeric range margin in SW France. This population persists on the slopes of a karstic canyon along the Ciron River (Gironde), a place that already harboured beech during the past glacial period. The overall goal of the present thesis is to better understand how this refugial population has managed to persist through past climate changes and how it responds to recent global warming.The first thesis chapter assesses the genetic structure and diversity of the entire adult tree population (n = 932) to infer its postglacial history. The study reveals that the stand consists of two genetic clusters with different levels of diversity, which are likely to reflect an ancient local population that is successively being colonized by immigrant genotypes. The second thesis chapter investigates the mating system and patterns of pollen movement within the population by analysing seed progenies from selected mother trees (n = 30). It shows that predominant mating between genetically related neighbours has resulted in a very strong spatial genetic structure, a phenomenon that helps explain the observed slow admixture of the two genetic clusters present in the population. The third thesis chapter performs an extensive dendroecological analysis based on a third of the adult beech population (n = 317), plus 79 Pedunculate oaks (Quercus robur) sampled for comparison. Tree-ring studies and modeling based on climate projections reveal that beech growth has been so far relatively slightly affected in an increasingly xeric climate conditions. A strong increase in radial growth has been shown for beech between 1860 and 1920 that ceased later on. Then growth has declined imperceptibly since the 1980s without showing any accentuated decreasing according to the future climate scenarios data of the region. Fine-scale analyses including carbon stable isotopes show great among-tree heterogeneity in performance (in terms of growth and water use efficiency) that is partly driven by the fine-scale topography of the refugial habitat and might also be influenced to a small extent by the tree genotype.Its combination of dendroecological and molecular ecological research approaches has enabled the thesis to attain important insights into the special character of the Ciron beech population and its performance within a constraining abiotic environment. Such insights represent valuable background information for the conservation and management of this and other refugial forest tree populations in a rapidly changing climate.

The world's high meat consumption is one of the main causes of global warming, it increases the risk of cancer and heart diseases, and causes a lot of suffering for animals. In December 2017, SVT showed the TV program Köttets lustar, which highlighted the different aspects of meat consumption. The program put a lot focus on how animals are affected by the meat industry, and the question of whether it is ethical to eat meat. The program reached great attention in mainstream media and on social media.   This study investigated the different discourses in the question of meat consumption in Köttets lustar, how they were framed by SVT, and the struggle between the discourses in the debate that the programme generated on SVT’s Facebook page. The aim was to see how the framing affected the debate on Facebook. The used method was Fairclough’s critical discourse analysis. In the analysis of the programme, six discourses were found: the animal rights discourse, the discourse about veganism as a sect, the masculine discourse, the public health discourse, the climate discourse and the economic discourse. In the debate on Facebook, the struggle was primarily conducted between the animal rights discourse and the economic discourse.   The animal rights discourse advocated that we should not consume meat at all, and used arguments from the climate discourse and the public health discourse to strengthen its thesis, while all the other discourses advocated continued meat consumption. The main problem with meat consumption was that we eat too much meat, and not the ethical question. The economic discourse - which emphasizes the consumer's responsibility to choose the "right Swedish meat" in a fair amount that takes better account of climate, animals, health and the environment, was dominant. The economic discourse also increased its dominance by placing greater emphasis on parts of the animal rights aspect, which makes it more difficult for the animal rights discourse to enhance its power.

Despite worldwide policy efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol, the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) remains a negative externality. Economic equilibrium paths in the presence of such an uncorrected externality are inefficient; as a consequence there is no real economic opportunity cost to correcting this externality by mitigating global warming. Mitigation investment using resources diverted from conventional investments can raise the economic well-being of both current and future generations. The economic literature on GHG emissions misleadingly focuses attention on the intergenerational equity aspects of mitigation by using a hybrid constrained optimal path as the "business-as-usual" benchmark. We calibrate a simple Keynes-Ramsey growth model to illustrate the significant potential Pareto-improvement from mitigation investment, and to explain the equilibrium concept appropriate to modeling an uncorrected negative externality.

In this I will explore the ethical challenge of global climate change by analysing three accounts of how responsibility for climate change should be distributed. I explore why it is valuable to view climate change as part of a bigger ethical problem of resources, distribution and global justice. Furthermore, I will argue that a road towards change by a cosmo political theory of justice is the most reasonable option. The theme of my argumentation is that the challenge of global climate change should be understood as a problem between human beings, not between states, or via schemes for distribution or rigid systematic solutions. Many theories of justice fail to do so with challenging and potentially dangerous consequences. / I den här uppsatsen så kommer jag utforska klimatförändringar som etisk utmaning. Jag undersöker varför det är värdefullt att se klimatförändringar som en del av ett större problem som handlar om resurser, distribuering och global rättvisa. Jag kommer undersöka tre möjliga vägar till en lösning på klimatförändringar som etiskt problem och hävda att en kosmopolitisk rättviseteori är det rimligaste alternativet. Klimatförändringens utmaning måste förstås som ett problem människor emellan och inte stater emellan genom planer för distribuering av resurser eller någon annan mer eller mindre regid systematisk lösning. Många rättviseteorier lyckas mindre väl med detta med utmanande och potentiellt farliga konsekvenser som resultat.

Typically, multi-model ensemble studies show mixed responses of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under global warming, so it is currently unknown how, or even if, global warming will impact ENSO and its teleconnections. ENSO is governed by various ocean-atmosphere interactions in the equatorial Pacific, which provide either positive amplifying or negative damping feedbacks and are not always accurate in models. This results in uncertainty in projected ENSO responses. In a flux adjusted HadCM3 perturbed physics ensemble, the Bjerknes' stability index (BJ index), a measure of ENSO stability, has been used to analyse the strength of ENSO feedbacks and their response under the SRES A1B warming scenario with respect to mean climate conditions. Despite mean sea surface temperature biases being minimised by flux adjustment, the important dominant feedbacks, namely the latent heat flux feedback, shortwave flux feedback, the thermocline feedback and the zonal advective feedback are found to be too weak in the ensemble. Common model biases cause weak ocean-atmosphere interactions such as a weak response of ocean currents to wind stress anomalies, a weak thermocline slope response to wind stress anomalies and weak thermodynamic dampings. These biases are linked to overly strong zonal surface ocean currents and convective response biases. Under global warming, a large increase in thermodynamic damping, caused by increasing shortwave damping, is found. This increase is linked to a strong convective response and overrides other feedback responses, resulting in a weakening BJ index in contrast to increasing ENSO amplitude. Positive feedback responses are also found but counteract each other, so have relatively little impact on total ENSO stability. Results here show that common model biases, such as the cold tongue bias, are linked to persistent ENSO feedback biases pointing to areas of improvement in future models. Results also suggest that caution must be exercised when using the BJ index to assess ENSO, as the BJ index is not always representative of ENSO amplitude. This may be caused by non-linearities in ENSO feedbacks which are not accounted for by the linear approximations used in the BJ index, or by ENSO feedbacks not being directly comparable in magnitude, as assumed by the BJ index calculation.