This study investigates the effect of human capital, using gross enrolment rate as a proxy, on labor productivity. It also investigates if a larger public effort in providing education opportunities would lead to a more efficient distribution of skills and therefore give a positive effect on labor productivity. We use a panel data approach to estimate an endogenous growth model on countries that are selected as to be reasonably similar. The main results are that growth in gross enrolment rate have a positive effect on labor productivity, while the level of government expenditure on tertiary education (measured as a percentage of GDP) has a negative effect on labor productivity.

O total de gasto social do governo somou cerca de R$800 bilhões em 2009, quase 25% do PIB brasileiro. Dado este volume crescente e expressivo, esta dissertação apresenta uma análise do efeito do gasto social sobre a pobreza no Brasil das três instâncias de governo: federal, estadual e municipal. Para tanto, foram estimados três modelos com dados em painel de 20 anos (1987 a 2009) analisando os gastos estaduais e federais. Adicionalmente, estimou-se o efeito da despesa municipal utilizando dados de 1991, 2000 e 2010 para 5.058 municípios. Procurou-se tratar o viés de simultaneidade entre o gasto do governo e a pobreza aplicando-se o modelo de mínimos quadrados em dois estágios, utilizando variáveis de ideologia política como instrumento. Os resultados mostraram que o gasto das três instâncias de governo tem efeito sobre a queda da pobreza no Brasil. Particularmente, as funções orçamentárias de gasto que apresentaram maior efetividade sobre a queda da pobreza foram: gasto federal e municipal com saúde e saneamento e gastos agregados estaduais e municipais. Analisou-se também o efeito da interação do gasto estadual com dados das condições iniciais de cada estado em 1980 - renda familiar per capita, desigualdade, proporção de pobres, grau de educação e mortalidade infantil. Concluiu-se que tanto as condições iniciais de cada estado como suas características específicas influenciam o grau em que o seu gasto afeta a pobreza. / The total public social spending in Brazil reached about R$800 billion in 2009, almost 25% of Brazilian GDP. Giving this increasing and expressive volume, this dissertation analyzes the effect of the three levels of government social spending on poverty in Brazil - federal, state and municipal. Three models were estimated with a 20 year\'s state panel data (1987 to 2009) analyzing the federal and state spending effect. We also estimated the municipal expenditure effect on poverty using data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 in 5.058 municipalities. The simultaneity bias between government spending and poverty was treated by applying the two stages least squares method, using the political ideology as instrumental variables. The results showed that the spending of the three levels of government reduce poverty in Brazil. Particularly, the spending budget functions with higher effectiveness on reduce poverty are: federal and municipal spending on health and sanitation, state and local aggregated spending. In addition, we also analyzed the effect of the state spending data interacting with its initial conditions in 1980 - per capita income, inequality, poverty, level of education and infant mortality. We concluded that the states initial conditions as well as its specific characteristics influence the extent to which their spending affects poverty.

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O total de gasto social do governo somou cerca de R$800 bilhões em 2009, quase 25% do PIB brasileiro. Dado este volume crescente e expressivo, esta dissertação apresenta uma análise do efeito do gasto social sobre a pobreza no Brasil das três instâncias de governo: federal, estadual e municipal. Para tanto, foram estimados três modelos com dados em painel de 20 anos (1987 a 2009) analisando os gastos estaduais e federais. Adicionalmente, estimou-se o efeito da despesa municipal utilizando dados de 1991, 2000 e 2010 para 5.058 municípios. Procurou-se tratar o viés de simultaneidade entre o gasto do governo e a pobreza aplicando-se o modelo de mínimos quadrados em dois estágios, utilizando variáveis de ideologia política como instrumento. Os resultados mostraram que o gasto das três instâncias de governo tem efeito sobre a queda da pobreza no Brasil. Particularmente, as funções orçamentárias de gasto que apresentaram maior efetividade sobre a queda da pobreza foram: gasto federal e municipal com saúde e saneamento e gastos agregados estaduais e municipais. Analisou-se também o efeito da interação do gasto estadual com dados das condições iniciais de cada estado em 1980 - renda familiar per capita, desigualdade, proporção de pobres, grau de educação e mortalidade infantil. Concluiu-se que tanto as condições iniciais de cada estado como suas características específicas influenciam o grau em que o seu gasto afeta a pobreza. / The total public social spending in Brazil reached about R$800 billion in 2009, almost 25% of Brazilian GDP. Giving this increasing and expressive volume, this dissertation analyzes the effect of the three levels of government social spending on poverty in Brazil - federal, state and municipal. Three models were estimated with a 20 year\'s state panel data (1987 to 2009) analyzing the federal and state spending effect. We also estimated the municipal expenditure effect on poverty using data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 in 5.058 municipalities. The simultaneity bias between government spending and poverty was treated by applying the two stages least squares method, using the political ideology as instrumental variables. The results showed that the spending of the three levels of government reduce poverty in Brazil. Particularly, the spending budget functions with higher effectiveness on reduce poverty are: federal and municipal spending on health and sanitation, state and local aggregated spending. In addition, we also analyzed the effect of the state spending data interacting with its initial conditions in 1980 - per capita income, inequality, poverty, level of education and infant mortality. We concluded that the states initial conditions as well as its specific characteristics influence the extent to which their spending affects poverty.

This paper provides a non-technical overview of NEG models dealing with policy issues. Considered policy measures include alternative categories of public expenditure, international tax competition, unilateral actions of protection/liberalisation, and trade agreements. The implications of public intervention in two-region NEG models are discussed by unfolding the impact of policy measures on agglomeration/dispersion forces. Results are described in contrast with those obtained in standard non-NEG theoretical models. The high degree of abstraction limits the applicability of NEG models to real world policy issues. We discuss in some detail two extensions of NEG models to reduce this applicability gap: the cases of multi-regional frameworks and firm heterogeneity.

This paper provides a non-technical overview of NEG models dealing with policy issues. Considered policy measures include alternative categories of public expenditure, international tax competition, unilateral actions of protection/liberalisation, and trade agreements. The implications of public intervention in two-region NEG models are discussed by unfolding the impact of policy measures on agglomeration/dispersion forces. Results are described in contrast with those obtained in standard non-NEG theoretical models. The high degree of abstraction limits the applicability of NEG models to real world policy issues. We discuss in some detail two extensions of NEG models to reduce this applicability gap: the cases of multi-regional frameworks and firm heterogeneity.

This thesis examines the effect of the government expenditure structure on the economic growth. The objective is to determine which components of public expenditures are growth enhancing and which growth retarding. The theoretical model is set into the endogenous growth framework and describes the growth mechanism of productive and unproductive government expenditures. The growth impact of public spending composition is analysed for 18 European countries from 1996 to 2012. The empirical part is based on the panel data analysis. The empirical findings suggest that reallocating public resources towards education and health can promote growth. Whereas, higher expenditures on spending and defence are likely to be growth-retarding.

2011年，美國政府在經歷次級房貸和高軍事支出的雙重壓力下，爆發高度財政赤字的問題，造成歐巴馬政府面臨調高債務比例與債務上限的壓力。然而，在眾多的輿論聲中，美國民主黨與共和黨在八月底達成下列協議，減少政府支出、提高債務比例以及增加債務上限等；但是，是否這些方式將改善美國經濟？本篇文章在動態隨機一般均衡(DSGE)架構下，建立一個封閉經濟體系，並將政府支出加入私人廠商部門，透過公共投資，幫助私人廠商增加產出；並且在政府僅採行公債和徵稅融通下，找出一個最適的債務持有比例，使國內福利為最高。而本文發現政府進入生產部門時，將影響最適債務持有比例。即是，隨著政府支出生產彈性越大，最適債務持有比例也會上升，而在基準參數下，我們將會得到最適債務持有比例為百分之十的結論。 / In 2011, under the pressure of subprime mortgage and high military expenditure, the U.S. government accumulated high fiscal deficit, and the Obama government faced the pressure of raising debt ratio and raising debt ceiling. However, among the huge debates, the Republican Party and Democratic Party reached the deal in August which included cut-down government expenditure, raise debt ratio, raise debt ceiling, and so on. But, will these ways improve the U.S. economy? This paper follows the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework to construct a closed economy, which the government helps private firm to production through public investment. Besides, given that government only undertakes debt financing and tax financing, we try to find an optimal debt ratio which makes the highest domestic welfare. In our finding, if the government enters private production sector, the optimal debt ratio will be influenced. That is, the optimal debt ratio will increase with the production elasticity of government expenditure. Under the benchmark parameter, the optimal debt ratio is 10 percent.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Steven P. Cassou / This dissertation consists of three essays on modeling the behavior of both fiscal and monetary policy by allowing for asymmetry in preferences of the policy authorities. Whether the responses of fiscal or monetary policy to the business cycle conditions are symmetric or asymmetric is still an unresolved question. The idea behind asymmetric behavior is that policy makers take stronger action during times of distress than during ordinary times. The following chapters investigate this question empirically using data for the United States and show that policy makers do behave asymmetrically. Chapter 1 investigates whether the asymmetric monetary policy preferences for the output gap as shown in Surico (2007) disappeared during the post-Volcker period spanning 1982:04- 2003:02. The results show Surico’s conclusion to be fragile as moving the starting period for the estimation a few quarters forward shows strong asymmetric policy behavior. Chapter 2 investigates U.S. fiscal policy sustainability and cyclicality in empirical structures that allow fiscal policy responses to exhibit asymmetric behavior. Two quarterly intervals of data are investigated, both of which begin in 1955. The short sample was chosen for comparison to Bohn (1998), while the full sample uses all available data. The results for a short sample that ends in the second quarter of 1995 show some differences from the results for the full sample that includes the financial crisis and the Great Recession. For the full sample, U.S. fiscal policy is asymmetrical in regard to both sustainability and cyclicality. Regarding fiscal policy sustainability, the best fitting models show evidence of fiscal policy sustainability for the short sample. However, the fiscal sustainability question does become less clear for the full sample. Regarding fiscal policy cyclicality, we find during times of distress, policy is strongly countercyclical, but during good times the results are mixed. Chapter 3 investigates the source of asymmetry in reaction of U.S. fiscal policy to business cycle conditions, as shown in chapter 2. By decomposing the fiscal policy variable into the tax revenues and the expenditures, we show that both series exhibit asymmetry in a way which is analogous to the results found in chapter 2.

The problem of weak economic development in Nigeria despite a substantial inflow of revenues from oil exports especially from the early 1970s and other subsequent periods is an important issue to examine. This outcome presents a number of problems for any government regime in Nigeria seeking to provide solutions to enable the country to escape the adverse effects of natural resource wealth. At present, the Nigerian government is still struggling to find solutions to tackle the deteriorating state of affairs, particularly in terms of unemployment, rising food prices and internal security. The main aim of this study is to help understand the dynamic relationship between natural resource wealth and economic development. This research study analyses the trajectory of economic and political development in Nigeria over the period 1960 to 2010. This study employs historical political economy and empirical approaches in examining the relationship between oil wealth and economic development. This method distinguishes the study from others carried out in the literature, particularly from those on Nigeria where the common approach in this strand has been to examine the relationship using economic theories alone. The rationale for the approach employed in this study is that Nigeria has its own unique development in terms of politics, which has been influenced by the social structure and colonial history of the country and thus the impact of oil on economic growth should be investigated separately using a historical and empirical approach so as to capture time trend interactions between societal issues, politics and economic outcomes. First, this study examined the relationship between oil and economic performance using social, political and economic factors such as ethnic and regional differences, political instability, changes in ownership structure of the oil sector and government expenditure, which is largely financed by oil revenues. Next, the research empirically examined the impact of these factors on economic sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. Afterwards, it analyses the impact of political and economic events in the preceding periods on the current or subsequent period that coincided with a return to democratic rule on major economic sectors. In general, the results show that the period, which marked a transition to a stable political regime, has no impact on economic performance from 1999 - 2010. Implicitly, this means that democracy in isolation is not a process that accompanies economic development and that a strong policy which could foster national unity and overcome regional and ethnic differences is needed. In order to promote sound economic development this policy should be dynamic, specific and directed to the promotion of a national agenda that will target and benefit important sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing through creating forward and backward linkages in a multiplier effect.