We investigate the effect of general-purpose transfers on different expenditure categories and tax rates in the municipalities of Saxony (eastern Germany) and North Rhine-Westphalia (western Germany). Findings from the panel data analysis suggest the existence of the “flypaper effect” – municipalities use transfers to increase expenditures but do not reduce taxes. For most expenditure subcategories the estimated coefficients are alike, suggesting similarity of spending priorities in the two federal states despite the differences in the transfer dependency. Targeted support of eastern municipalities could potentially explain few identified differences in the spending behavior.

We investigate how lump-sum equalization transfers affect expenditures and taxes in the municipalities of the largest German state North Rhine-Westphalia. In general, those general-purpose transfers cannot be treated as exogenous variables. Thus, for the identification of causal effects, two exogenous adjustments in the transfer allocation formula are used as instrumental variables. Findings suggest the existence of the “flypaper effect” – municipalities use transfers to increase expenditures but do not reduce tax rates. Extra money from transfers is mainly used to finance social expenditures and public facilities. A set of robustness checks, including a spatial dependence model, confirm the results.

This paper analyzes municipal expenditures in the light of horizontal fiscal interactions. I investigate total expenditures and a set of non-earmarked expenditure subcategories in the largest German federal state, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW). The empirical analysis is based on a Spatial Durbin Model in a panel for the years 2009-2015. Using a two-regime spatial matrix, I also examine the impact of agglomeration on the intensity of public expenditure interactions, thus testing the hypothesis that an agglomerated region can decrease the amount of public goods without losing mobile factors to the periphery. The findings indicate that significant municipal expenditure interaction effects do exist. The reaction functions also vary for different expenditure subcategories. Unlike spillover effects and fiscal competition, yardstick competition is an insignificant source of potential interactions. Expenditure interaction is fiercer if there is less agglomeration in a municipality. Urbanized and populous municipalities appear to benefit from agglomeration economies, a fact that enables them to spend less. Robustness checks confirm the findings.

Thesis (M.Sc. (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / Agricultural production measures the performance and efficiency of a country’s agricultural sector. The state of agricultural production can be assessed through the value of agricultural production, which is a product of agricultural gross production and output prices in monetary terms. The study examines the relationship between the value of agricultural production, government spending on agriculture, and other selected variables. Annual data for the value of agricultural production, government expenditure in agriculture, consumer price index, average annual rainfall, food import value, and population from 1983 to 2019 were collected from different sources and were used in the analysis for this study. The Johansen cointegration test was used to determine the existence of a long-run relationship between the value of agricultural production and selected variables by using both the trace and eigenvalue tests. The results indicated that there is a long run relationship among the variables. The study further used the Granger causality test to check the causality between the value of agricultural production and government expenditure in agriculture. The results show that there is no causal effect between the two variables. Lastly, the study used a Vector autoregressive (VAR) model to determine the relationship between the value of agricultural production and selected variables. The results of the VAR model indicated that government expenditure on agriculture, average annual rainfall, food import value, and population positively affect the value of agricultural production. The study also found that the consumer price index negatively affects the value of agricultural production. The study recommends that the government increase its spending on the agricultural sector, which could be in the form of research investment in technologies such as climate-smart agricultural technologies. Additionally, the study recommends that policymakers should review the monetary policy of South Africa to ensure price stability and prevent inflation. Lastly, the study recommends that the South African government should discourage imports and encourage South African agricultural producers to produce more major imported food products.

本文以Barro (1990)、Turnovsky (1997)與Lai and Liao (2012)的模型為基礎，建構一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型，為凸顯資本市場移動性所扮演的角色，分別探討政府當局在面對資本完全移動及資本不完全移動時，該如何制訂一套最適之非線型所得稅以追求社會福利極大。根據本文的分析，可得出以下結論： 一、在資本完全移動的情況下，為矯正政府基礎建設的生產外部性，可透過課徵所得稅矯正市場失靈的扭曲，並利用累退稅率矯正因所得稅尺度所造成資本邊際生產力過低的扭曲。政府可以透過最適租稅結構矯正所有分權經濟體系的扭曲，使得經濟體系達到最佳境界的經濟成長率與福利水準。 二、在資本不完全移動的情況下，當最適的所得稅尺度等於基礎建設的生產外部性，矯正了基礎建設的生產外部性，並且透過累進／累退稅率矯正課稅後導致資本邊際生產力過低的扭曲，然而代表性個人在做最適決策時視國外利率為固定，總體決策中利率會隨著借債規模而變動，存在資本不完全移動性的扭曲，經數值模擬的結果得知，代表性個人相對社會最適借債過多，因而無法使得經濟體系達到柏拉圖最適境界。 / Based on the Barro (1990), Turnovsky (1997) and Lai and Liao (2012) model, this thesis specifies that on endogenous growth model of a developing economy facing an upward-sloping supply curve of debt. The analysis includes both perfect world capital market case and imperfect world capital market case. The government’s infrastructure expenditure is financed by nonlinear income taxation, and examine how the fiscal authority devises its nonlinear tax structure from the viewpoint of welfare maximization. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, in a world of perfect capital market, it is found that a suitable package containing two instruments can fully remedy the inefficiencies arising from the production externality and distortionary taxation, as a result, the Pareto optimality can be restored. Second, according to the calibration results, in the face of imperfect world capital market, there are three distortions in the economy: the production externality, the capital externality, and the financial externality association with the upward-sloping supply of debt. Two policy instruments for the tax scalar and tax progressivity/regressivity causing the distortion arising from the production externality and the capital externality to vanish. Consequently, one remaining distortion, namely, the financial externality association with the upward-sloping supply of debt, are present in the economy. As a consequence, the structure of the optimal tax policy that won’t permit the attainment of the first-best optimum.

Diese Doktorarbeit untersucht drei Fragestellungen. Erstens, wie die Wirkung von plötzlichen Änderungen exogener Faktoren auf endogene Variablen empirisch im Allgemeinen zu bestimmen ist. Zweitens, welche Effekte eine Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben im Speziellen hat. Drittens, wie optimale Geldpolitik bestimmt werden kann, wenn der Entscheider keine eindeutigen Modelle für die ökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen hat. Im ersten Kapitel entwickele ich eine Methode, mithilfe derer die Effekte von plötzlichen Änderungen exogener Faktoren auf endogene Variablen geschätzt werden können. Dazu wird die gemeinsame Verteilung von Parametern einer Vektor Autoregression (VAR) und eines stochastischen allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodelles (DSGE) bestimmt. Auf diese Weise können zentrale Probleme gelöst werden: das Identifikationsproblem der VAR und eine mögliche Misspezifikation des DSGE Modells. Im zweitem Kapitel wende ich die Methode aus dem ersten Kapitel an, um den Effekt einer angekündigten Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben auf den privaten Konsum und die Reallöhne zu untersuchen. Die Identifikation beruht auf der Einsicht, dass endogene Variablen, oft qualitative Unterschiede in der Periode der Ankündigung und nach der Realisation zeigen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der private Konsum negativ im Zeitraum der Ankündigung reagiert und positiv nach der Realisation. Reallöhne steigen zum Zeitpunkt der Ankündigung und sind positiv für zwei Perioden nach der Realisation. Im abschließendem Kapitel untersuche ich gemeinsam mit Christian Stoltenberg, wie Geldpolitik gesteuert werden sollte, wenn die Modellierung der Ökonomie unsicher ist. Wenn ein Modell um einen Parameter erweitert wird, kann das Modell dadurch so verändert werden, dass sich die Politikempfehlungen zwischen dem ursprünglichen und dem neuen Modell unterscheiden. Oft wird aber lediglich das erweiterte Modell betrachtet. Wir schlagen eine Methode vor, die beiden Modellen Rechnung trägt und somit zu einer besseren Politik führt. / This thesis is concerned with three questions: first, how can the effects macroeconomic policy has on the economy in general be estimated? Second, what are the effects of a pre-announced increase in government expenditures? Third, how should monetary policy be conducted, if the policymaker faces uncertainty about the economic environment. In the first chapter I suggest to estimate the effects of an exogenous disturbance on the economy by considering the parameter distributions of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model jointly. This allows to resolve the major issue a researcher has to deal with when working with a VAR model and a DSGE model: the identification of the VAR model and the potential misspecification of the DSGE model. The second chapter applies the methodology presented in the preceding chapter to investigate the effects of a pre-announced change in government expenditure on private consumption and real wages. The shock is identified by exploiting its pre-announced nature, i.e. different signs of the responses in endogenous variables during the announcement and after the realization of the shock. Private consumption is found to respond negatively during the announcement period and positively after the realization. The reaction of real wages is positive on impact and positive for two quarters after the realization. In the last chapter ''Optimal Policy Under Model Uncertainty: A Structural-Bayesian Estimation Approach'' I investigate jointly with Christian Stoltenberg how policy should optimally be conducted when the policymaker is faced with uncertainty about the economic environment. The standard procedure is to specify a prior over the parameter space ignoring the status of some sub-models. We propose a procedure that ensures that the specified set of sub-models is not discarded too easily. We find that optimal policy based on our procedure leads to welfare gains compared to the standard practice.

This study empirically examines the determinants of government expenditure in South Africa using annual data for the period from 1970 to 2014; and provides an overview of the South African government expenditure. The Johansen-Juselius co-integration test established that there is a long-run relationship between government expenditure and its determinants. The error correction model was used to examine the key determinants. The results of this study show that urbanisation rate, national income, poverty reduction; trade openness lagged one period and the wage rate significantly influence the size of government expenditure. Therefore, the study recommend that government create job opportunities; increase its expenditure in developing rural areas; and find ways to manage the public sector wage bill. The study concludes that population growth, inflation and trade openness in current period are not important in determining government expenditure in South Africa / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

論文摘要 本文主要是檢定內生成長模型之下，政府的國防以及教育支出行為與經濟成長的關係。我們發覺以往的文獻探討，對於教育對經濟成長關係的探討大多著重在人力資本對經濟成長之影響，而多持正面的看法；學者對國防支出有持正面；亦有持負面之看法。根據本文所做的實證檢定則發現，長期之下，我們所欲檢定之變數，國民所得、教育支出以及國防支出皆具有單根之關係，顯示三個數列在長期之下，不具有穩定之狀態；亦即是呈現一個隨機漫步的情形，此正和我國經濟成長、國防支出、教育支出不斷增加的事實相吻合。而教育支出和國民所得亦有具有共整合的關係存在，這顯示了在長期之下，國民所得和教育支出的一階差分會呈一穩定的線性關係，即長期之下，國民所得和教育支出會有相同成長趨勢，而國民所得和國防支出間，因為國防預算支出的比例不斷降低，所以我們無法得出該支出與國民所得有共整合關係，顯示國民所得和國防支出長期下並無相同的成長趨勢。 而就因果關係檢定之結果來看，我們發現，國民所得對教育支出有一領先的關係，解釋了長期之下，國民所得的資訊可以用來預測教育支出成長的事實，同時也可以說明我國符合華格納法則中所提到之現象。 而就國防支出和國民所得而言，本文得出國民所得和國防支出存在雙向因果關係。當以國民所得作為被解釋變數時，可能因國防支出使用的效率，或者國防的支出確實提高有效需求並促進現代化，因而使國防支出對國民所得有顯著之影響。至於國民所得對國防支出的影響方面，我們就國防支出需求面來看國防預算的制定，是必須考慮所得的經濟因素。且依據華格納法則，隨著我國國民所得不斷增加，對於政府國防支出的需求，亦會相對提升。因此，吾人可以說國民所得增加會影響國防支出。 　目　　　　錄 第一章 緒論……………………………………………… 1 第一節 經濟成長與政府支出……………………….. 1 第二節 研究方向……………………………………….. 5 第三節 本文架構……………………………………….. 6 第二章 相關探討及文獻回顧…………………………… 8 第一節 相關公共支出對經濟成長的文獻回顧……… 8 第二節 教育投資、支出及國防支出對經濟成長之影響… 11 第三節 國民所得對政府支出的影響………………… 23 第三章 計量方法………………………………………….. 29 第一節 單根檢定………………………………………… 29 第二節 共整合檢定………………………………………... 32 第三節 修正誤差模型…………………………………….. 34 第四節 因果關係檢定………………………………… 36 第四章 模型設定及實證結果…………………… . 41 第一節 模型的設定…………………………………… 41 第二節 單根和共整合檢定…………………………… . 42 第三節 修正誤差及因果檢定………………………….…. 47 第四節 實證結果之探討…………………………………. 55 第五章 結論與建議……………………………………… . 63 第一節 本文結論……………………………………….… 63 第二節 本文之建議…………………………………….…. 65 參考文獻……………………………………………………. 70 / We are going to dicuss the long-run relationship between income and govnernment's education and national defense expenditure in Taiwan.We start at testing wheather income ,education expenditure ,and national defense have unit or not. We find all the series have the characteristic of unit root.It shows that they are not stationary.Then we use Granger's cointegration test,and see that the series of income and education got the relationship of cointegration,instead that of income and national defense. Finally,we test long- run relationship by Granger causality.Due to the existence of cointegration between income and education expenditure,we can use two-steps OLS to test whether there exist Granger causality between them,and we find income will affect education expenditure ,however education expenditure will not affect income.And we use F test to find the Granger causality between income and nation defenseand we get the conclusion that there exists a bilateral Granger causality.It means that they will affect each other.

Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of (the qualification as per the PG2 form), Human Resource Management, Durban, University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2017. / This study evaluated the effect of government expenditure on education attainment in South Africa by assessing the effect of the amount spent by government on education from 1980 to 2014 on human capital development. The study is centred around two objectives: (1) to analyse the effect of government expenditure on education attainment; and (2) to investigate the effect of education attainment on human development. Human capital development was measured using Gross Enrolment Ratio for secondary school, supplied by the South African Reserve Bank. Data on government expenditure on human capital was acquired from the Treasury database. The study draws from the human capital theoretical framework in explaining the effect of education expenditure on human capital development. The findings of the study showed that there is a positive relationship between human capital development and government expenditure. These findings showed a strong relationship between government expenditure and gross enrolment ratio at 99 % confidence interval (p< 0,0001). The theory of human capital is thus confirmed with these findings. / M

This thesis deals with the comparison of tax reforms during the financial and economic crisis in the old and new EU countries. My main objective is to compare the reforms implemented in individual states during the financial and economic crisis and its impact on the tax quota and tax mix. The first part deals with the causes and development of the financial and economic crisis. In the second chapter is a description of the optimal tax system and history of the tax reforms. The final chapter describes the various changes and reforms in EU countries, the development of their tax quota, tax mix, the government expenditure to GDP ratio, the government debt to GDP ratio and the impact of certain changes to the amount of taxation on labor.