This thesis aims to uncover key factors shaping patterns of forced human mobility within and across borders. A panel dataset was constructed covering 161 countries during 2009 - 2021. The dataset includes country-level statistics on internally displaced persons and cross-border refugees, as well as indicators capturing economic, sociopolitical, and climate/environmental conditions in each country. Leveraging this multidimensional dataset, a gravity-type migration model was estimated to infer how different factors may operate in tandem in driving internal displacements and refugee migration. For internal displacements, conflict, age-dependency ratio, arid environment, and economic conditions play key roles. For cross-border refugee migration, political instability is a primary driver, followed by climate vulnerability, lower urbanization, and socioeconomic factors. The findings imply the mechanisms underlying human mobility can be complex, differing depending on whether the movement is within or across borders. Such difference underscores the need for comprehensive modeling approaches that can recognize refugee migration as a multi-stage process from initial displacement to onward migration and identify distinctive drivers at each stage of mobility.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第25069号 / 経博第676号 / 新制||経||304(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 神事 直人, 教授 森 知也, 准教授 長谷川 誠 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

Diese Dissertation beschreibt Marktverzerrungen auf mehreren Ebenen, die entweder aufgrund von Fehlfunktionen oder durch Interventionen politischer Art entstehen. Die Fehlfunktionen schließen einerseits Märkte mit imperfektem Wettbewerb, und andererseits Versagen auf anderweitig vollkommenen Märkten ein. Die Erstgenannten können durch eine starke Konzentration (beispielsweise aufgrund der geringen Größe des Marktes) verursacht werden, durch Ein- oder Austrittsbarrieren, heterogene Güter und Informationsasymmetrien. Zu den Gründen für Marktversagen gehören die Existenz von Externalitäten, Störungen auf anderen, verlinkten Märkten (z.B. die von Kleinbauern erfahrenen Kreditbeschränkungen), hohe Transaktionskosten, öffentliche Güter und Staatsversagen. Abhängig von den Definitionen unterschiedlicher Autoren kann die ungleiche Verteilung von Einkommen oder Vermögen auch als Versagen des Marktmechanismus verstanden werden. In dem Abschnitt dieser Arbeit der sich Marktstörungen widmet wurde der Fokus auf die Nachfrageseite gesetzt, wo die Marktkonzentration mit der Existenz von Monopsonen, Oligopsonen oder Monopsonistischem Wettbewerb assoziiert wird. Die zweite Klasse von Verzerrungen auf den hier betrachteten Märkten wird durch politische Interventionen verursacht. Diese können verschiedene Beweggründe haben, wie die Korrektur der oben beschriebenen Marktstörungen oder Umverteilung zwischen Bevölkerungsgruppen. Das Instrument, das jeweils eingesetzt wird, um Marktversagen zu korrigieren, hängt von der beobachteten Störung ab. Wenn externe Effekte vorhanden sind, kann beispielsweise eine Steuer (Subvention) angewendet werden, um die externen Kosten (Nutzen) zu internalisieren. Umverteilung kann ebenfalls auf verschiedene Arten erreicht werden, beispielsweise durch die Direktzahlungen auf der Ebene der einzelnen Betriebe welche die europäischen Landwirte unterstützen. Um die Ergebnisse von Mikro- und Makroperspektive systematisch zu kombinieren wird die Dimension der Skalen in den theoretischen Rahmen eingeführt. Dies ist notwendig, da sowohl die Auswirkungen von Mikroprozessen auf größere Zusammenhänge, als auch der Einfluss von Makroprozessen auf das Mikroniveau nicht immer offensichtlich sind. Dieser Rahmen wurde auf a) den lokalen Kautschukmarkt in Jambi, Indonesien, der durch starke Nachfragemarktmacht auf allen Ebenen gekennzeichnet ist und b) den europäischen Markt für Zucker angewandt, der stark reguliert ist. Kapitel zwei und drei liefern eine Analyse der Fehlfunktionen innerhalb des indonesischen Kautschukmarkts, von denen sich Kapitel zwei mit einer Mikro- und Kapitel drei mit der Mesoebene befasst. Die Analyse auf Mikroniveau zeigt, dass Kleinhändler von Gummi in Jambi Marktmacht ausüben. Der Preis, den sie ihren Lieferantinnen und Lieferanten bezahlen liegt deutlich unter den Wertgrenzprodukten dieses Inputs. Diese Marktmacht ist größer in abgelegenen Regionen und schwächer mit zunehmender Marktgröße. Auch auf dem größeren Maßstab der verarbeitenden Industrie existiert Marktmacht in beträchtlichem Umfang. Die Fabriken betreiben asymmetrische Preistransmission, was bedeutet, dass Preisänderungen auf dem Weltmarkt schneller auf die Inputpreise übertragen werden wenn der Weltmarktpreis sinkt als in Zeiten von Preissteigerungen. Die asymmetrische Übertragung der Preise allein führt zu einer jährlichen Umverteilung von rund drei Millionen US-Dollar in Jambi. Es lässt sich davon ausgehen, dass die gesamte Umverteilung aufgrund von Marktmacht deutlich größer ist, was aber mit den verfügbaren Daten nicht beurteilt werden kann. Das vierte Kapitel untersucht die Auswirkungen von politischen Interventionen auf der Mesoebene. Der Schwerpunkt der Analyse liegt auf den Ergebnissen einer Marktintervention auf Drittländer, nämlich die Senkung des Interventionspreises auf dem europäischen Zuckermarkt. Diese Preissenkung war von den Auswirkungen der bisherigen Politik, sowie Veränderungen des institutionellen Rahmens, in dem die gemeinsame Marktorganisation für Zucker eingebettet ist, motiviert. Dies sind die Einführung des ‚Everything But Arms‘ Abkommens, sowie Verpflichtungen die sich aus den multilateralen Verhandlungen im Rahmen der Welthandelsorganisation ergaben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Afrikanischen, Karibischen und Pazifischen Staaten in der Tat negativ beeinflusst worden sind, das heißt dass die Erosion von Präferenzen stattgefunden hat. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit sind für künftige Entscheidungen darüber, ob und wie auf den Agrarmärkten interveniert werden soll, relevant. Die entscheidenden Fragen bestehen darin, wann zu intervenieren ist, und durch welche Maßnahme.

<p>This Bachelor thesis investigates if the Swedish trade has faced trade diversion and or trade creation after entering the European Union (EU). This is done by analyzing Sweden’s trade pattern of goods before and during the membership using a selected time-period of 1985-2004.</p><p>To be able to investigate if Sweden has faced trade diversion and trade creation we apply the Soloaga and Winters model (2000) which is based on the gravity model of trade and we modify it to fit our purpose. By using the modified version we run a pooled panel data regression where we divide the time-period into two groups, a before (1985-1994) and during (1995-2004) EU membership group and we included eight different variables to estimate trade diversion and creation. After running the pooled panel data, we could conclude that Sweden has faced 44 percent trade diversion by diverting its trade from non-members to member states in the EU. Sweden has also increased its trade to EU member states by 106 percent implying trade creation. However since we have not included an exchange rate variable these figure cannot be used as direct percentages to estimate trade diversion and creation, they are instead used as a point of reference.</p><p>ii</p> / <p>Denna kandidatuppsats undersöker huruvida Sveriges handel har påverkats av handelsomfördelning och eller en handelsökning efter medlemskapet i den Europeiska Unionen (EU). Detta gör vi genom att analysera Sveriges handelstrend under 1985-2004.</p><p>Till vår hjälp i vår undersökning av Sveriges handelsutveckling under de senaste 20 åren har vi använt Soloaga och Winters (2000) regressionsmodell som är baserad på gravitations modellen för handel men vi har modifierat den till att passa vårt syfte. Genom denna modifierade modell har vi gjort en poolad paneldata analys där vi delar upp vår tids period i två grupper, en före- och en under EU grupp och vi inkluderade åtta variabler i modellen. Sammanfattningsvis har vi kommit fram till att Sverige har påverkats av en 44 procentig handelsomfördelning då handeln har skiftat från icke medlemsstater till medlemsstater. Sverige har även ökat sin handel med EU länderna med 106 procent vilket pekar på att Sverige även har påverkats av en handelsökning. Dessa siffror måste dock ses som en utgångspunkt och inte exakta siffror för handelsomfördelning och handelsökning då vi ej inkluderat en variabel som mäter valutakurs förändringar i vår regressionsmodell</p>

Cette thèse entend revisiter la question des interactions entre les dimensions commerciale et monétaire desprocessus d’intégration régionale à travers l’étude du cas océanien. Habituellement en retrait du champ d’étude del’économie internationale, le continent océanien se trouve pourtant au coeur de la problématique de l’inscription despetites économies insulaires dans l’économie mondiale via des processus régionaux et constitue un terrain d’étudesprivilégié sur la question du séquençage entre intégration monétaire et intégration commerciale. La démarche envisagéedans cette thèse procède de l’économie appliquée et mobilise différentes méthodologies (économétrie de panel, modèlesqualitatifs multinomiaux, équations gravitaires) pour apporter un éclairage original sur les différentes dimensions duprocessus d’intégration dans la zone et sur l’articulation entre ses versants monétaire et réel. Trois résultats principauxse dégagent de ce travail. Tout d’abord, l’évaluation de la dynamique d’intégration réelle à l’oeuvre met en évidencel’impact positif des accords commerciaux intra-régionaux sur les flux d’échange entre les pays membres et sur lesexportations à destination des pays non membres. À travers l’établissement d’une cartographie originale des relationscambiaires dans la zone, l’analyse met ensuite à jour l’influence d’une dépendance au sentier sur les choix d’ancrage et laprépondérance des déterminants historiques. Troisièmement, le croisement de ces résultats invite à relativiser l’impactd’une modification de l’architecture cambiaire sur les flux commerciaux intra-zone. Le poids de l’histoire se dégage toutd’abord des équations gravitaires à travers des effets d’interaction entre influence de l’ascendance coloniale communeet impact de la fixité des taux de change bilatéraux ; une analyse prospective conduit enfin à privilégier un scénariod’ancrage des monnaies océaniennes vis-à-vis du dollar australien, tout en soulignant les effets asymétriques d’un telschéma d’intégration monétaire sur les flux commerciaux intra-zone. / The purpose of this dissertation is to shed new light on the interactions between trade integration andmonetary integration, using the Oceanian region as a case study. The Oceanian continent has not enjoyed excessiveattention amongst researchers in international economics. And yet, the region offers a striking illustration of themechanisms through which small island economies interact with the global economy, via complex regional processes.As such, it constitutes an excellent research field for the question of the sequencing between monetary integration andtrade integration. The approach adopted in this thesis is steeped in applied economics, and uses various methodologies(panel econometrics, multinomial discrete choice models, gravity equations) to bring a fresh perspective on the variousdimensions of the regional integration process, and on the interactions between the monetary and trade components ofthat process. The study yields three key conclusions. Firstly, the study assesses the actual integration dynamics at work,and concludes that there is a positive impact of intra-regional trade agreements, both on trade flows between membercountries and on exports to non-member countries. Secondly, the study creates a new mapping of exchange rate regimesin the region, and uses it to identify a path dependency between anchoring choices and historical determinations. Thirdly,the models analyzed suggest that the impact of common currency arrangements on intra-regional trade flows should notbe over-estimated. Rather, a closer look at the gravity equations describing the interaction between common colonialascendency and common currency arrangements suggests that history is the over-riding factor. Finally, a prospectiveanalysis leads to consider anchoring to the australian dollar as a possible option, while noting the asymmetrical impactof such an integration scheme on intra-regional trade flows.

This thesis investigates application of the gravity model of international trade on measuring a distance coefficient, which is known to be a proxy to globalization. This estimation is performed on a dataset containing information on EU 27 countries through the years 1996 to 2014. The presence of 10 post- communist countries enabled the author to perform the estimation on transformative economies, which had been isolated from their western trade partners for over 40 years. The division of the dataset into the Western and Eastern Blocs enabled measurement of convergence of the intra-blocs trade - the second goal of this thesis. This measurement was done through newly introduced intra-blocs trade variables that enabled measurements of both directions of trade. Through the application of this model on 10 sections, these measurements could be performed on single trade components. The analysis shows a substantial heterogeneity between single sections both in distance coefficient and inter-blocs trade. An increase in the level of globalization was observed in 9 out of 10 sections and convergence of some sections between the blocs was also found. Finally, globalization was found to progress with varying speed within single SITC sections during periods of economic crises. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)

This thesis examines whether there is an effect of the Mercosur free trade agreement on export and import between member countries. The study uses an extended gravity model framework on a panel data between the years 1975 to 2017 for 34 countries, including the member countries. Two different regressions were run using OLS and country fixed effect. A Linder effect was also added to the regressions to further understand the impact on trade. The results show a significantly positive effect of the FTA on imports. The FTA yielded insignificant and significantly negative result for OLS and FEM respectively on exports.

A intensificação do comércio internacional e a liberalização comercial ocorrida nos últimos anos têm aumentado a importância relativa dos procedimentos de fronteira como determinante dos custos de comercialização associados ao comércio internacional. Uma parcela desses custos está associada a atrasos portuários, a ausência de transparência na aplicação de regras, a burocracia e a procedimentos aduaneiros desatualizados. Nesse contexto, a facilitação de comércio começou a receber destaque no cenário político internacional. Entendida como medidas que reduzem os custos de comercialização internacional, a facilitação de comércio tornou-se tópico de discussão na OMC a partir da conferência Ministerial de Cingapura de 1996. Estudos relacionados à facilitação de comércio, principalmente estudos que abrangem o Brasil e seus parceiros comerciais ainda são raros. O presente estudo tencionou contribuir nessa direção avaliando os efeitos da facilitação de comércio, definida em termos da transparência da política comercial, sobre o padrão de comércio bilateral de um conjunto de 43 países que inclui o Brasil e alguns de seus principais parceiros comerciais. Para isso, são descritas primeiramente as relações entre a facilitação de comércio, transparência da política comercial e os fluxos comerciais. A idéia central é que a reforma da política comercial que promova a transparência, através de maior previsibilidade e simplificação, pode contribuir para a redução dos custos de comercialização associados ao comércio internacional e ampliar os fluxos de comércio entre os países. A partir de indicadores de facilitação de comércio relacionados à transparência da política comercial são construídos, para cada país da amostra, três índices de transparência utilizando a técnica estatística multivariada da análise fatorial: dois índices de transparência nas importações e um índice de transparência nas exportações. A relação desses índices com o padrão de comércio bilateral entre os países é estimada utilizando um modelo gravitacional construído com dados de comércio bilateral dos 43 países desagregados em Capítulos do Sistema Harmonizado. O modelo gravitacional é estimado através do modelo de efeitos fixos e os resultados indicam que os índices de transparência nas importações e o índice de transparência nas exportações estão positivamente associados com o comércio bilateral e são estatisticamente significativos. Dessa maneira, a introdução de reformas nas áreas de facilitação de comércio, que levariam a um incremento relativo dos índices de transparência, pode resultar na ampliação do comércio entre os países. / The intensification of international trade and the trade liberalization that occurred in the last years have increased the relative importance of border procedures as a determinant of trade costs associated to international trade. These costs are partly associated to delay in port operations, lack of transparency in rule applications, bureaucracy and outdated customs procedures. In this context, trade facilitation became increasingly important in the international political scenario. Trade facilitation is interpreted as measures that reduce international trade costs and started to be discussed at the WTO from the Singapore ministerial conference of 1996. Studies on trade facilitation, particularly including Brazilian and trade partner issues, are still scarce, therefore the present study aims to contribute in this direction evaluating the effects of trade facilitation, defined as the transparency of trade policy. It is applied to the pattern of bilateral trade of a 43 - country set including Brazil and some of its major trade partners. For that purpose, the relations between trade facilitation, transparency of trade policy and trade flows are firstly described. The central idea is that the trade policy reform that promotes transparency through greater predictability and simplification can contribute to reduce trade costs associated with international trade and expand trade flows between countries. Based on trade facilitation indicators related to trade policy, three transparency indexes are constructed for each country of the sample, using multivariate statistics and factor analysis: two transparency indexes for imports and one transparency index for exports. The relation of these indexes with the bilateral trade pattern between countries is estimated using a gravity model constructed with bilateral trade data of the 43 countries disaggregated in chapters of the Harmonized System. The gravity model is estimated by a fixed effects model and the results indicate that the transparency indexes for imports and exports are positively associated with bilateral trade and are statistically significant. Therefore, reforms in trade facilitation areas that would lead to a relative increase of the transparency index can be an way to expand trade between the countries.

As relações entre a União Europeia (UE) e os seus parceiros comerciais incluem Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APCs) com países em desenvolvimento para produtos agrícolas e industriais, destacando-se países da África, Caraíbas e Pacífico. A política de caráter cooperativo no setor agrícola da APC-UE, possui por objetivo a preservação do ambiente, segurança alimentar, crescimento econômico e desenvolvimento sustentável. Excetuando-se esses Acordos Preferenciais, a União Europeia possui no setor agrícola um dos segmentos de maior proteção comercial. Trata-se do principal mercado para os produtos agrícolas brasileiros. No entanto, esse setor, no Brasil, poderia obter melhor desempenho caso a UE não praticasse tarifas de importação elevadas aos seus produtos. Assim sendo, aplica-se no presente trabalho o modelo gravitacional para mensurar o efeito de criação ou desvio de comércio, resultado da aplicação de tarifas pela União Europeia com relação aos seus 48 parceiros comerciais selecionados, incluindo-se o Brasil, e também o impacto de um possível Acordo Preferencial de Comércio entre Brasil e União Europeia. A análise enfoca os efeitos para um grupo selecionado de produtos agrícolas, que recebem a incidência de picos tarifários, incluindo-se carne bovina congelada, carne bovina fresca, carne de frango, carne suína, açúcar bruto e suco de fruta. O período considerado para a análise compreende os anos de 1996 a 2013, ou seja, desde o alargamento da União Europeia no ano de 1995. O modelo gravitacional é estimado por meio do modelo de efeitos fixos e os resultados mostram a existência de desvio de comércio com relação às importações europeias de carne bovina fresca (SH 0202) e carne suína (SH 0203) e impacto positivo da concretização de um Acordo Preferencial de Comércio para carne bovina fresca (SH 0201), carne bovina congelada (SH 0202) e carne de frango (SH 0207). Tais resultados confirmam as hipóteses levantadas na literatura com relação à consolidação do referido acordo. Ou seja, os resultados indicam que o Brasil pode aumentar suas exportações de produtos agrícolas para a União Europeia caso ocorra um acordo preferencial que elimine as barreiras tarifárias impostas pelo bloco da UE. / Trade relations between the European Union (EU) and its trading partners have feature for the granting of tariff reduction or exemption for developing countries, through preferential agreements. With regard to preferential trade agreements (PTA) put in place by the European Union, stands out those performed with the group of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries for agricultural and industrial products. The cooperative nature of politics in the ACP-EU agricultural sector has the objective of preserving the environment, food security, economic growth and sustainable development. Except for some preferred sealed agreements with some countries, the European Union has in the agricultural sector, one of the segments most subject to trade protection. With regard to Brazil, the European Union is the main market for its agricultural products. Even so, the Brazilian agricultural sector could have a better performance if the EU did not ascribe excessively high import tariffs to their products. Therefore, a gravity model is used in this analysis to measure the effect of trade creation or trade diversion as a result of the tariff applied by the European Union in relation for 48 selected trading partners, including Brazil and also the impact of a possible Preferential Trade Agreement between Brazil and the European Union. The analysis focuses on the effects for a selected group of agricultural products receiving the incidence of tariff peaks, including frozen beef, fresh beef, chicken, pork, raw sugar and fruit juice The period considered for the analysis covers the years from 1996 to 2013, which incorporates the enlargement of the European Union starting at 1995. The gravity model is estimated using the fixed effects model and the results show the existence of trade diversion with respect to European imports of fresh beef (HS 0202) and pork (HS 0203) and positive impact of the implementation of a Preferential Trade Agreement for fresh beef (HS 0201), frozen beef (HS 0202) and chicken (HS 0207). These results confirm the hypotheses rose in the literature with regard to the consolidation of the Agreement. That is, the results indicate that Brazil could increase its exports of agricultural products to the EU in the event of a preferential agreement eliminating tariff barriers imposed by the EU bloc.

Submitted by CARLA MARIA GOULART DE MORAES (carlagm) on 2015-05-08T12:30:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudir_Olipio_Graf.pdf: 492252 bytes, checksum: 10814f55e258dc8182f0963ace67d33b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T12:30:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudir_Olipio_Graf.pdf: 492252 bytes, checksum: 10814f55e258dc8182f0963ace67d33b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-25 / Nenhuma / A segunda onda do regionalismo no início da década de 1990 mudou consideravelmente o cenário do comércio internacional, sendo criados neste período, uma série de Acordos Preferenciais de Comércio (APC). No início da década de 2000, a literatura passou a estudar os efeitos provocados pela criação destes acordos no comércio internacional. O objetivo principal deste estudo é estimar o comércio bilateral potencial entre os países membros do MERCOSUL (Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai) através do modelo gravitacional, através de dados em painel com efeitos aleatórios. Foi estimado o fluxo potencial de comércio para o ano de 2009, sendo utilizados dados de 1999 a 2009, de uma amostra de 67 países. Os estimadores que mediram os efeitos do bloco no fluxo bilateral de comércio, mesmo sendo significativos, não influenciaram consideravelmente o fluxo de comércio. As estimações tiveram uma aproximação considerável entre o modelo estimado e o fluxo real de comércio bilateral, para o ano de 2009, obtendo um diferencial entre o fluxo potencial de comércio e o comércio efetivo de apenas 3,47%. Os fluxos que apresentaram maior potencial de comércio foram Argentina x Paraguai e Argentina x Uruguai, enquanto que o país que mais supera o fluxo potencial de comércio é o Brasil, que em todos os fluxos, com exceção de Brasil x Paraguai, excede o seu potencial. / The second wave of regionalism, occurred from the nineties, changed significantly the international trade scenario, with the creation of many Preferential Trading Arrangements (PTA). In a beginning of the 2000, the literature went on to study the effects caused by these arrangements on international trade. The aim of this dissertation is to estimate the potential bilateral trade between MERCOSUR members (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) using a gravity model, based on panel data. The potential trade flows were estimated for the year 2009, using data for 1999 to 2009, based in a sample of 67 countries. The estimators which measured the bloc effects in bilateral trade flows, even though significant, do not influence considerably the trade flows. The results show a considerable approximation between the estimate potential flows and the real bilateral trade flows in 2009, with a difference between the potential trade flows and the effective trade of only 3,47%. The trade flows with the larger potential trade were Argentina x Paraguay and Argentina x Uruguay, while the country that the effective trade overcomes the potential flows is Brazil, that in all flows, except Brazil x Paraguay, exceeds its potential flows, both as an importer and as an exporter.