abstract: The increasingly recurrent extraordinary flood events in the metropolitan area of Monterrey, Mexico have led to significant stakeholder interest in understanding the hydrologic response of the Santa Catarina watershed to extreme events. This study analyzes a flood mitigation strategy proposed by stakeholders through a participatory workshop and are assessed using two hydrological models: The Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). The stakeholder-derived flood mitigation strategy consists of placing new hydraulic infrastructure in addition to the current flood controls in the basin. This is done by simulating three scenarios: (1) evaluate the impact of the current structure, (2) implementing a large dam similar to the Rompepicos dam and (3) the inclusion of three small detention dams. These mitigation strategies are assessed in the context of a major flood event caused by the landfall of Hurricane Alex in July 2010 through a consistent application of the two modeling tools. To do so, spatial information on topography, soil, land cover and meteorological forcing were assembled, quality-controlled and input into each model. Calibration was performed for each model based on streamflow observations and maximum observed reservoir levels from the National Water Commission in Mexico. Simulation analyses focuses on the differential capability of the two models in capturing the spatial variability in rainfall, topographic conditions, soil hydraulic properties and its effect on the flood response in the presence of the different flood mitigation structures. The implementation of new hydraulic infrastructure is shown to have a positive impact on mitigating the flood peak with a more favorable reduction in the peak at the outlet from the larger dam (16.5% in tRIBS and 23% in HEC-HMS) than the collective effect from the small structures (12% in tRIBS and 10% in HEC-HMS). Furthermore, flood peak mitigation depends strongly on the number and locations of the new dam sites in relation to the spatial distribution of rainfall and flood generation. Comparison of the two modeling approaches complements the analysis of available observations for the flood event and provides a framework within which to derive a multi-model approach for stakeholder-driven solutions. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Civil and Environmental Engineering 2016

Container supply chains are vulnerable to many risks. Vulnerability can be defined as an exposure to serious disturbances arising from the risks within the supply chain as well as the risks external to the supply chain. Vulnerability can also be defined as exposure to serious disturbances arising from a hazard or a threat. Containers are one of the major sources of security concerns and have been used, for example, to smuggle illegal immigrants, weapons, and drugs. The consequences of the use of a weapon of mass destruction or discovery of such a device in a container are serious. Estimates suggest that a weapon of mass destruction explosion and the resulting port closure could cost billions of dollars. The annual cost of container losses as consequences of serious disturbances arising from hazards is estimated as $500 million per year. The literature review, historical failure data, and statistical analysis in the context of containerships' accidents from a safety point of view clearly indicate that the container cargo damage, machinery failure, collision, grounding, fire/explosion, and contact are the most significant accident categories with high percentages of occurrences. Another important finding from the literature review is that the most significant basic event contributing to the supply chains' vulnerability is human error. Therefore, firstly, this research makes full use of the Evidential Reasoning (ER) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning (FER) by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of a seafarer's reliability. Accordingly, control options to enhance seafarers' reliability are suggested. The proposed methodology enables and facilitates the decision makers to measure the reliability of a seafarer before his/her designation to any activities and during his/her seafaring period. Secondly, this research makes full use of the Bayesian Networks (BNs) advantages and further develops and extends the Fuzzy Bayesian Networks (FBNs) and a "symmetric method" by exploiting a conceptual and sound methodology for the assessment of human reliability. Furthermore a FBN model (i. e. dependency network), which is capable of illustrating the dependency among the variables, is constructed. By exploiting the proposed FBN model, a general equation for the reduction of human reliability attributable to a person's continuous hours of wakefulness, acute sleep loss and cumulative sleep debt is formulated and tested. A container supply chain includes dozens of stakeholders who can physically come into contact with containers and their contents and are potentially related with the container trade and transportation. Security-based disruptions can occur at various points along the supply chain. Experience has shown that a limited percentage of inspection, coupled with a targeted approach based on risk analysis, can provide an acceptable security level. Thus, in order not to hamper the logistics process in an intolerable manner, the number of physical checks should be chosen cautiously. Thirdly, a conceptual and sound methodology (i. e. FBN model) for evaluating a container's security score, based on the importer security filling, shipping documents, ocean or sea carriers' reliability, and the security scores of various commercial operators and premises, is developed. Accordingly, control options to avoid unnecessary delays and security scanning are suggested. Finally, a decision making model for assessing the security level of a port associated with ship/port interface and based on the security score of the ship's cargo containers, is developed. It is further suggested that regardless of scanning all import cargo containers, one realistic way to secure the supply chain, due to lack of information and number of variables, is to enhance the ocean or sea carriers' reliability through enhancing their ship staff's reliability. Accordingly a decision making model to analyse the cost and benefit (i.e. CBA) is developed.

No description available.

This research aims to propose a Risk Management (RM) framework and develop a generic risk-based model for dealing with potential hazards and risk factors associated with offshore terminals' and marine ports' operations and management. Hazard identification was conducted through an appropriate literature review of major risk factors of these logistic infrastructures. As a result in the first phase of this research a Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchal Process (FAHP) method was used for determining the relative weights of the risk factors identified via the literature review. This has led to the development of a generic risk -based model which can help related industrial professionals and risk managers assess the risk factors and develop appropriate strategies to take preventive/corrective actions for mitigation purposes, with a view of maintaining efficient offshore terminals' and marine ports' operations and management. In the second phase of the research the developed risk-based model incorporating Fuzzy Set Theory (FST), an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and the IDS software were used to evaluate the risk levels of different ports in real situations using a case study. The IDS software based on an ER approach was used to aggregate the previously determined relative weights of the risk factors with the new evaluation results of risk levels for the real ports. The third phase of the research made use of the Cause and Consequence Analysis (CCA) including the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) under a fuzzy environment, to analyse in detail the most significant risk factors determined from the first phase of the research, using appropriate case-studies. In the fourth phase of the research an individual RM strategy was tailored and implemented on the most significant risk factor identified previously. In the last phase of the research and in order to complete the RM cycle, the best mitigation strategies were introduced and evaluated in the form of ideal solutions for mitigating the identified risk factors. All methods used in this research have quantitative and qualitative nature. Expert judgements carried out for gathering the required information accounted for the majority of data collected. The proposed RM framework can be a useful method for managers and auditors when conducting their RM programmes in the offshore and marine industries. The novelty of this research can help the Quality, Health, Safety, Environment and Security (QHSES) managers, insurers and risk managers in the offshore and marine industries investigate the potential hazards more appropriately if there is uncertainty of data sources. In this research with considering strategic management approaches to RM development the proposed RM framework and risk based model contribute to knowledge by developing and evaluating an effective methodology for future use of the RM professionals.

Automatic Identification System (AIS) was introduced with the overall aim to promote efficiency and safety of navigation, protection of environment, and safety of life at sea. Consequently, ship-borne AIS was implemented on a mandatory basis by IMO in 2000 and later amendments to chapter V of Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention. Therefore SOLAS Convention vessels were required to carry AIS in a phased approach, from I" July 2002 to end of December 2004. The intention is to provide more precise information and a clear traffic view in navigation operations, particularly in anti-collision operation. This mandatory implementation of AIS has raised a number of issues with respect to its success in fulfilment of the intended role. In order to improve the efficiency of the AIS in navigation operation, this research mainly focused on the accuracy of AIS information, and practical use of the technology on board the ships. The intentions were to assess reliability of data, level of human failure associated with AIS, and the degree of actual use of the technology by navigators. This research firstly provided impressions about AIS technology for anti-collision operation and other marine operation and, about a system's approach to the issue of human failure in marine risk management. Secondly, this research has assessed reliability of AIS data by examination of data collected through three AIS data studies. Thirdly, it has evaluated navigators' attitude and behaviour to AIS usage by analysing the data from navigators' feedback collected through the AIS questionnaire survey focused on their perceptions about different aspects of AIS related to its use. This research revealed that some aspects of the AIS technology and some features of its users need further attention and improvement, so as to achieve its intended objectives in navigation. This study finally contributed in proposing the AIS User Satisfaction Model as a suitable framework for evaluation of navigators' satisfaction and extent of the use of AIS. This model can probably be used as the basis for measuring navigators' attitude and behaviour about other similar maritime technologies.

No description available.

This thesis, as its title implies, is a unique step in the management of risk of collision, which may arise in a two-ship encounter. This work advances the development established in the author's M. Phil thesis. It is suggested that the contemporary technique of collision avoidance based solely on CPA criteria is inadequate for risk analysis. The proposed strategy for handling risk of collision revolves around the introduced hypothesis for dealing with risks having various probabilities of occurrence resulting in various degrees of severity. The risk values are obtained by computing the geometrical probability of collision based on the following definition :- " The risk of collision can be measured by the ratio of the ways available for a collision to occur to all the possible ways that could be considered by the obser ving vessel." Based on this hypothesis several approaches to the presentation of the risk of collision are described separately in the thesis's units together with their application, merits and demerits. It is found that the introduction of the assessment and control of the risk of collision by lneans of the proposed risk criteria has converted the vague awareness given by the traditional methods, to a definite risk criteria which could provide alternative ways of assessing any situation. The restructuring of the information clearly provided to the mariner gives him a much greater insight into the level of the risk which he is accepting in any situation. A strong risk controllability can be achieved if it is characterised by a relatively high degree of constraints in the fonn of regulation. These regulation should acquire features that will pennit them to discriminate, act upon, and respond to aspects of the situation variety. Due to the fact that certain statements within the International· Rules are not clearly defined and are thus open to individual interpretation, some mathematical definitions of risk of collision and close range situations are established. The analysis and testing of specific examples has proved that these methods work and are able to provide the mariners with a cammon language in resolving collision avoidance problem.

No description available.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:23:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2011-02-24Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:29:20Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 martins_pes_me_jabo.pdf: 724580 bytes, checksum: 607174d21f5d018ec5e111b64424e116 (MD5) / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / O trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o perfil radial e a uniformidade de distribuição de água do aspersor fabricado pela empresa NaanDanJain, modelo 427 1/2”M e bocal de 2,8 mm de diâmetro interno, operando com pressões de 150, 200, 300 e 400 kPa em cinco posições do defletor de ajuste (0, 20, 50, 80 e 100%). Para a determinação dos parâmetros avaliados utilizou-se o método da malha, e com o auxílio do aplicativo computacional CATCH 3D calculou-se a sobreposição das lâminas de água com dez espaçamentos. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que o defletor de ajuste influencia o raio de molhamento, o perfil de distribuição e a uniformidade de aplicação de água e mostrou-se como um mecanismo importante, pois permite comportamento diferenciado para o aspersor, garantindo ampla faixa de utilização do equipamento / The study aimed to evaluate the radial profile and the uniformity of water distribution of sprinkler manufactured by the company NaanDanJain, model 427 1/2M and nozzle with 2.8 mm of internal diameter, operating at pressures of 150, 200, 300 and 400 kPa and five positions of the deflector (0, 20, 50, 80 and 100%). For the determination of the parameters rated, we used the method of the grid, and with the aid of computer application CATCH 3D, it was calculated overlapping layers of water with ten spacing. The results show that the deflector adjustment influences the radius of wetness, the distribution profile and the uniformity of water application and showed itself as an important mechanism, since it gave different behavior for the sprinkler, ensuring wide track usage of the equipment

Architecture is a form of human expression with its surroundings, making the scenery around a living organism in constant evolution and transformation. It is a record of the time that protects artistic, human and cultural expression of people throughout their stories, that is, from past periods buildings that manage to stay in the current landscape, allowing us to know the society, culture, daily life, relationships, materials and technologies used, both for its construction and for arranging the interiors of our ancestors. An example of this was the hydraulic tile, object of study of this research and an important decorative coating, widely used not only in Brazil but worldwide. The hydraulic tile is a form of artistic expression that persists to the present day, where its manual production is increasingly being lost, since currently very few companies still work with the production of these pieces. Thus, this research aims to conduct a survey on the patterning of the samples of hydraulic tile floor coverings that still persevere in real state's Art Déco, consolidated style in the years of 1920-1940, in the boundary of the researched zone: Zone 2, Historical Center of Santa Maria. For a better foundation and greater understanding of the problem, this study used a qualitative and quantitative methodology. It began with a bibliographic research about the main topics to be analyzed during the investigation, such as the history of the city of Santa Maria, its situation during the period under review, the Art Déco, hydraulic coatings used at the time, as well as the hydraulic tile as cultural heritage worthy of preservation. After the search of theoretical basis, began the data collection in the historic center of the city in order to find the remaining hydraulic tiles of the Art Déco period. Thirty-six patterns were found in thirty-two Déco buildings, however, it was realized that the population living in these areas did not have awareness of the importance of preserving these assets accounted for exposing part of our aesthetic architectural, social and cultural heritage. Thus this research also seeks to collaborate with the awareness, knowledge and preservation of the use of hydraulic tile through a brochure that will elucidate the community about the importance of preserving these assets. / A arquitetura é a forma de expressão do homem com seu entorno, fazendo do cenário ao seu redor um organismo vivo em constante evolução e transformação. É um registro do tempo que resguarda a expressão humana, artística e cultural dos povos no decorrer de suas histórias, ou seja, edificações de períodos passados que conseguem manterem-se na paisagem atual, permitindo-nos conhecer a sociedade, as culturas, o cotidiano, as relações, os materiais e as tecnologias utilizadas, tanto para sua construção, quanto para arranjar os interiores de nossos antepassados. Um exemplo disso foi o ladrilho hidráulico, objeto de estudo desta investigação e um importante revestimento decorativo, muito utilizado não só no Brasil, como no mundo todo. O ladrilho hidráulico é uma forma de manifestação artística que persiste até os dias atuais, onde sua produção manual está cada vez mais se perdendo, já que atualmente poucas empresas ainda trabalham com a produção dessas peças. Assim, a presente pesquisa, tem como finalidade realizar um levantamento sobre a padronagem dos exemplares dos pisos de revestimento em ladrilho hidráulico que ainda perseveram-se nos imóveis Art Déco, estilo consolidado nos anos de 1920 à 1940 da zona limítrofe da pesquisa: a Zona 2, Centro Histórico de Santa Maria. Para melhor fundamentação e maior entendimento do problema, essa pesquisa se utilizou de uma metodologia de cunho qualitativo e quantitativo. Teve início com pesquisas bibliográficas acerca dos principais tópicos a serem analisados no decorrer da investigação como a história da cidade de Santa Maria, sua conjuntura durante o período em análise, o Art Déco, os revestimentos hidráulicos utilizados na época, assim como, o ladrilho hidráulico como patrimônio cultural digno de preservação. Posterior à busca da fundamentação teórica, teve início à coleta de dados no centro histórico da cidade a fim de encontrar ladrilhos hidráulicos remanescentes do momento Art Déco. Trinta e seis padronagens foram encontradas em trinta e duas edificações Déco, porém, percebeu-se que a população residente nessas áreas não possui ciência da importância em se preservar estes bens responsáveis por expor parte do nosso patrimônio arquitetônico estético, social e cultural. Desta forma, esta investigação também busca colaborar com a conscientização, conhecimento e preservação do uso do ladrilho hidráulico, através de um folheto que elucidará a comunidade sobre a importância em se preservar esses bens.