Numerical models often fail to accurately simulate and forecast a hydrological state in operation due to its inherent uncertainties. Data Assimilation (DA) is a promising technology that uses real-time observations to modify a model's parameters and internal variables to make it more representative of the actual state of the system it describes. In this thesis, hydrological DA is first reviewed from the perspective of its objective, scope, applications and the challenges it faces. Special attention is then given to nonlinear Kalman filters such as the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). Based on a review of the existing studies, it is found that the potential of EKF has not been fully exploited. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model that is widely used in agricultural water management and flood forecasting. However, studies of hydrological DA that are based on distributed models are relatively rare because hydrological DA is still in its infancy, with many issues to be resolved, and linear statistical models and lumped rainfall-runoff models are often used for the sake of simplicity. This study aims to fill this gap by assimilating streamflow and surface soil moisture observations into the SWAT model to improve its state simulation and forecasting capability. Unless specifically defined, all ‘forecasts’ in Italic font are based on the assumption of a perfect knowledge of the meteorological forecast. EKF is chosen as the DA method for its solid theoretical basis and parsimonious implementation procedures. Given the large number of parameters and storage variables in SWAT, only the watershed scale variables are included in the state vector, and the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) scale variables are updated with the a posteriori/a priori ratio of their watershed scale counterparts. The Jacobian matrix is calculated numerically by perturbing the state variables. Two case studies are carried out with real observation data in order to verify the effectiveness of EKF assimilation. The upstream section of the Senegal River (above Bakel station) in western Africa is chosen for the streamflow assimilation, and the USDA ARS Little Washita experimental watershed is chosen to examine surface soil moisture assimilation. In the case of streamflow assimilation, a spinoff study is conducted to compare EKF state-parameter assimilation with a linear autoregressive (AR) output assimilation to improve SWAT’s flood forecasting capability. The influence of precipitation forecast uncertainty on the effectiveness of EKF assimilation is discussed in the context of surface soil moisture assimilation. In streamflow assimilation, EKF was found to be effective mostly in the wet season due to the weak connection between runoff, soil moisture and the curve number (CN2) in dry seasons. Both soil moisture and CN2 were significantly updated in the wet season despite having opposite update patterns. The flood forecast is moderately improved for up to seven days, especially in the flood period by applying the EKF subsequent open loop (EKFsOL) scheme. The forecast is further improved with a newly designed quasi-error update scheme. Comparison between EKF and AR output assimilation in flood forecasting reveals that while both methods can improve forecast accuracy, their performance is influenced by the hydrological regime of the particular year. EKF outperformed the AR model in dry years, while AR outperformed the EKF in wet years. Compared to AR, EKF is more robust and less sensitive to the length of the forecast lead time. A combined EKF-AR method provides satisfying results in both dry and wet years. The assimilation of surface soil moisture is proved effective in improving the full profile soil moisture and streamflow estimate. The setting of state and observation vector has a great impact on the assimilation results. The state vector with streamflow and all-layer soil moisture outperforms other, more complicated state vectors, including those augmented with intermediate variables and model parameters. The joint assimilation of surface soil moisture and streamflow observation provides a much better estimate of soil moisture compared to assimilating the streamflow only. The updated SWAT model is sufficiently robust to issue improved forecasts of soil moisture and streamflow after the assimilation is ‘unplugged’. The error quantification is found to be critical to the performance of EKF assimilation. Nevertheless, the application of an adaptive EKF shows no advantages over using the trial and error method in determining time-invariant model errors. The robustness of EKF assimilation is further verified by explicitly perturbing the precipitation ‘forecast’ in the EKF subsequent forecasts. The open loop model without previous EKF update is more vulnerable to erroneous precipitation estimates. Compared to streamflow forecasting, soil moisture forecasting is found to be more resilient to erroneous precipitation input.

Os efeitos das alterações de uso da terra na hidrologia das bacias hidrográficas têm sido, ao longo dos anos, amplamente discutidos para pequenas bacias experimentais. O uso de modelos hidrológicos para descrever esse tipo de processo tem se tornado promissor no que tange o estudo de grandes bacias. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar uma metodologia para analisar o impacto das mudanças de uso da terra sobre o regime hidrológico em bacias hidrográficas de grande escala. Este estudo foi realizado por meio de simulação. Para isso foi utilizado um modelo hidrológico distribuído de base física, o Modelo de Grandes Bacias (MGB-IPH). Para realizar simulações de impactos das mudanças de uso da terra, inicialmente avaliou-se a capacidade do modelo MGB-IPH de captar as alterações produzidas pelas mudanças de uso. A análise de sensibilidade mostrou que a vazão gerada na bacia é inversamente proporcional aos parâmetros de índice de área foliar (IAF) e de altura média da vegetação (h), uma vez que quanto maior o IAF, mais interceptação ocorrerá na bacia e, quanto maior o valor de h, mais facilidade haverá nas trocas aerodinâmicas, ambos favorecendo o processo de evaporação. Já em relação aos parâmetros albedo (a) e resistência superficial (rs), a vazão gerada é diretamente proporcional, pois quanto maior o a maior a energia refletida pela superfície e, consequentemente menos energia estará disponível para o processo de evaporação. Em relação à rs, o seu aumento implica em uma menor perda por transpiração, disponibilizando mais água para gerar escoamento. As simulações de análise de sensibilidade mostraram que o MGB-IPH reproduz, de forma coerente, o comportamento médio das bacias submetidas ao desmatamento em um grande número de estudos experimentais. Assim, avaliou-se os impactos das mudanças de uso da terra no regime hidrológico em bacias de grande escala através de um estudo de caso. Este estudo de caso foi realizado na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraná. Os resultados das simulações mostraram que o desmatamento possui forte influência sobre as variáveis hidrológicas, como interceptação, evapotranspiração e vazão. Devido ao desmatamento foram verificadas reduções na interceptação e na evapotranspiração ao longo dos anos. Em relação a vazão, verificou-se que as simulações foram capaz de captar a não estacionariedade existente nas vazões observadas. Além disso, foi possível verificar que a vegetação pode ser associada a 39% dos incrementos observados na vazão média de longo termo, quando comparados os períodos anterior e posterior a 1970 na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraná. Já as variações na precipitação são responsáveis por 61% dos impactos na vazão média. Em relação às vazões extremas foram verificados incrementos, sendo eles mais expressivos nas vazões mínimas do que nas vazões máxima. Assim, pode-se afirmar que a metodologia proposta é consistente com os efeitos observados na bacia e com os resultados de estudos experimentais realizados em diferentes regiões do mundo. / The effects of land use change on the hydrology of watersheds have been widely discussed during several years in small basins. The hydrological models have been promising for describe the effects of land use change in hydrology in large basins. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate a methodology to study the impact of land use changes on the hydrological processes in large basins. This study was conducted by hydrological simulation. For this, a physically based distributed hydrological model, Modelo de Grandes Bacias (MGB-IPH), was used. The ability of MGB-IPH model for study the effects of land-use change in hydrology processes was first analyzed. The results of sensibility analysis showed that the flow generated in the basin is inversely proportional to the parameters of leaf area index (LAI) and average vegetation height (h), since the higher the LAI more interception, and the higher the h easier will be the aerodynamic changes, both favoring the evaporation process . The flow is directly proportional to the parameters albedo (a) and surface resistance (rs), since the greater the a, more energy reflected by the surface, and consequently less energy is available for the evaporation process. The increasing in rs parameter implies a smaller loss by transpiration, and then more runoff is generated. The sensibility analysis showed that the MGB-IPH reproduces consistently, the average behavior of the basins subjected to deforestation on a large number of experimental studies. Thus, we evaluated the impacts of land use changes on the hydrological regime in large-scale basins by a case study. This case study was conducted in the Paraná River Basin. The simulation results showed that deforestation has a strong influence by hydrological variables, such as interception, evapotranspiration and flow. Due to deforestation were observed interception and evapotranspiration reduction over the years. It was found that the simulations were able to capture the non-stationarity in the observed streamflows. Furthermore, we found that 39% of the observed increase in average flow of long term is due to vegetation change, when comparing the periods before and after 1970 in the Paraná River Basin, while the 61% is due precipitation changes. Increments were observed in extreme flows. These increments were more evident at low flows than the maximum flow. Thus, it can be stated that the proposed methodology is consistent with the effects observed in the Rio Paraná basin and with the results of experimental studies conducted in different regions of the world.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The urbanization process in Brazil is characterized by its fast and disorderly drivingthe occupation of houses in fragile physical environments characterized as the use and occupation. This dynamic puts the population, especially low purchasing power in a situation of environmental risks they are hydrological and / or geomorphological features. The risk is that the probability of loss and / or damage to the social and environmental point of view which the population is exposed. In this context, the present study was to examine the environmental risks physical geomorphological and hydrological and consolidated in the urban expansion area of Aracaju in the prevention of accidents. To achieve this and other proposed objectives was made using different procedures, focusing initially the literature survey and mapping for the systematization of the knowledge produced on the subject in various sources and public institutions, in addition to field work to show and record the risks geomorphological and hydrological. The methodology used allowed the crossing of the environmental variables considered basic to identify the level of vulnerability in Aracaju. The investigative analysis shows that in the places of occurrence of the events / accidents dominate the standard urban periphery, except in the expansion area of the municipality. Floods and flooding are common in many locations mainly in expansion and in the more consolidated, as well as near the drainage channels, whether natural or rectified. The areas with the greatest evidence of geomorphological hazards Floods and flooding are common in many locations mainly in expansion and in the more consolidated, as well as near the drainage channels, whether natural or rectified. The areas with the greatest evidence of geomorphological hazards (erosion and mass movements) are tied to insecurity or lack of basic infrastructure, mainly present in the Santa Maria neighborhoods, Jabotiana, America, Cidade Nova, Port Dantas / Coqueiral and Soledade. The absence of detailed studies and a plan to manage environmental risks in difficult decision making framework for ensuring the combat and / or mitigation of environmental risks in Aracaju. Therefore, it is necessary that the Government undertake preventive actions to avoid the uncontrolled growth of the city, as of works of sanitation, to ensure the safety population, and the development and implementation of structural measures (technical control) and non-structural (prevention plans and alerts, risk zoning, flood insurance) to combat the risk / O processo de urbanização brasileira se caracteriza pela sua forma rápida e desordenada impulsionando a ocupação de moradias em ambientes físicos caracterizados como frágeis ao uso e ocupação.Essa dinâmica coloca a população, principalmente de poder aquisitivo baixo, em situação de riscos ambientais sejam eles hidrológicos e/ou geomorfológicos. O risco se constitui na probabilidade de perda e/ou danos do ponto de vista socioambiental a qual a população esteja exposta. Nesse contexto, o presente estudo buscou analisar os riscos ambientais físicos geomorfológicos e hidrológicos na malha urbana consolidada e zona de expansão de Aracaju, visando à prevenção de ocorrência de acidentes. Para o alcance desse e outros objetivos propostos fez-se o uso de procedimentos distintos, priorizando inicialmente o levantamento bibliográfico e cartográfico para sistematização do conhecimento produzido sobre o assunto em diversas fontes e instituições públicas, além do trabalho de campo para evidenciar e registrar os riscos geomorfológicos e hidrológicos. A metodologia utilizada permitiu o cruzamento das variáveis ambientais consideradas básicas para identificação do nível de vulnerabilidade em Aracaju.A análise investigativa evidencia que nos lugares de ocorrência dos eventos/acidentes predominam o padrão urbano periférico, exceto na área de expansão do município. As enchentes e os alagamentos são frequentes em diversas localidades principalmente na área de expansão e na área mais consolidada, bem como nas proximidades dos canais de drenagem, sejam eles naturais ou retificados. Já as áreas com maiores evidências de riscos geomorfológicos (erosão e movimentos de massas) estão atreladas a precarização ou inexistência de infraestrutura básica, presentes principalmente nos bairros Santa Maria, Jabotiana, América, Cidade Nova, Porto Dantas/Coqueiral e Soledade. A ausência de estudos detalhados e de um plano de gestão dos riscos ambientais dificulta na tomada de decisão coerente para a garantia do combate e/ou mitigação dos riscos ambientais em Aracaju. Sendo assim, é necessário que o Poder Público estabeleça ações preventivas afim de evitar o crescimento desordenado do município, a partir da realização das obras de saneamento básico, que garantam segurança a população residente, além da elaboração e execução de medidas estruturais (técnicas de controle) e não estruturais (planos de prevenção e alerta, zoneamento do risco, seguro enchentes) para combate ao risco

O modelo Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) tem sido utilizado para avaliar os impactos do uso e manejo da terra nos recursos hídricos, sedimentos e agroquímicos em diversas escalas e condições ambientais em todo o mundo. Entretanto, pelo fato de ter sido desenvolvido em centros de pesquisa norte-americanos, alguns parâmetros e rotinas de simulação não refletem adequadamente determinados processos de bacias localizadas em regiões tropicais. Nesse sentido, o presente trabalho visou aprimorar a modelagem hidrológica do SWAT através da revisão e modificação de processos relacionados à simulação da evapotranspiração. Os procedimentos propostos incluíram a alteração das rotinas de dormência vegetal no código fonte do modelo e a modificação dos cronogramas de operações de manejo e parâmetros do banco de dados de crescimento das plantas, visando reproduzir com maior precisão o ciclo das culturas em bacias tropicais. As modificações foram testadas em cinco bacias localizadas no Estado de São Paulo, com áreas entre 42 e 5.959 km², sendo comparados os resultados obtidos antes e depois da implementação das mesmas. Com as alterações, a análise do balanço hídrico anual evidenciou um aumento nos valores de evapotranspiração de cerca de 61% nas bacias, aproximando-se dos totais anuais de evapotranspiração calculados através de métodos empíricos, bem como houve redução significativa do escoamento superficial. Verificou-se uma melhoria da simulação de vazão em todas as bacias, sendo obtidos valores superiores para o Coeficiente de Eficiência de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) quando comparados à simulação sem as alterações. A calibração e validação foram realizadas com base na simulação modificada, sendo obtidos valores de NSE mensais entre 0,71 e 0,93 na calibração e 0,53 e 0,88 na validação, enquanto os valores diários de NSE situaram-se entre 0,51 e 0,82 na calibração e 0,38 e 0,83 na validação. A calibração a partir de uma simulação na qual as distorções dos processos hidrológicos da bacia estivessem previamente minimizadas resultou em bons resultados sem alteração excessiva dos parâmetros, indicando uma simulação hidrológica de melhor consistência. / The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in a wide range of scales and environmental conditions across the globe. However, originally developed in the United States, some parameters and routines are unrealistic for simulating in tropical watersheds. In this sense, this work aims to improve the hydrologic modeling of SWAT model by reviewing and modifying parameters and routines related to evapotranspiration process. In order to adequately represent crop growth in tropical basins, the proposed procedures included changes in dormancy routines of SWAT source code and modifications of scheduled management operations and plant growth database parameters. These modifications were tested in five different basins at São Paulo State, Brazil, with areas ranging from 42 to 5959 km², by comparing the results before and after their implementation. Annual water balance analysis showed an increase in evapotranspiration about 61% for basins, approaching the total annual evapotranspiration estimated by empirical methods. Hence, it was observed that surface runoff and base flow components showed a decrease. The modifications resulted in improved flow simulation for all basins, showing better Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) values compared to the unchanged simulation. Calibration and validation processes used the modified simulation database, being achieved monthly NSE between 0.71 – 0.73 at calibration and 0.53 – 0.88 at validation, while daily NSE were 0.51 – 0.82 at calibration and 0.38 – 0.83 at validation. Overall, minimizing distortions in hydrological processes at pre-calibration step resulted in good estimations without excessive modification of parameters at calibration, attesting a consistent hydrological modeling for the basins analyzed.

Modificações da cobertura natural dos solos podem ocasionar alterações no ciclo hidrológico, que por sua vez podem impactar a disponibilidade de água. Na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Paraíba do Sul (BHPS) vem ocorrendo uma substituição de coberturas vegetais em função da expansão de monoculturas de eucalipto. O objetivo desta pesquisa foi verificar os impactos de ordem hidrológica sobre a disponibilidade hídrica (quali e quantitativa) no trecho paulista da BHPS, em decorrência da implantação da atividade de silvicultura de eucalipto para produção de celulose. Para isso, foi utilizado o método de Pegada Hídrica (PH) para avaliar a alocação de água da produção de madeira de floresta nativa e de eucalipto, método que vem sendo aplicado pelo setor silvícola. Foram empregados também métodos de Balanço Hídrico Climatológico, Balanço Hídrico Geral e a abordagem de Serviços Ecossistêmicos para avaliar a relação entre a água e as principais coberturas vegetais da bacia (pastagem, floresta nativa e eucalipto), de forma a permitir uma análise ampliada e integrada do comportamento hidrológico da bacia. Ao analisar os métodos empregados, observou-se que a PH de produtos avalia apenas a eficiência do uso da água, o que pode mascarar altos consumos de água em função de maior produtividade por hectare. Isto porque se obteve menor valor de PH da madeira, em m³ por tonelada para o caso do eucalipto, e maior alocação total de água, em m³ por hectare por ano, em comparação à floresta nativa. Os resultados obtidos pela análise de Balanço Hídrico Climatológico para as principais coberturas vegetais mostraram que o eucalipto apresentou maior evapotranspiração e menor excedente hídrico. Já o Balanço Hídrico Geral, analisado mensalmente, permitiu visualizar que as coberturas vegetais influenciam o serviço de provisão de água e concorrem pelo uso de água com os demais usuários da bacia (naturais e antrópicos) em períodos de menor precipitação. Por fim, concluiu-se que são necessárias medições locais para determinação de volumes de escoamento (superficial e subterrâneo), infiltração, bem como do processo de lixiviação e perdas de solo para apontar de forma mais precisa os impactos hídricos da monocultura de eucalipto. / Modifications in the natural land cover can change the hydrological cycle, which might have an impact on water availability. In the river basin of the Paraíba do Sul river (RBPS), the natural vegetation has been being replaced due to the expansion of eucalyptus monocultures. This research assessed the impacts on water availability (both qualitative and quantitative), caused by eucalyptus forestry for pulp production in the RBPS part in Sao Paulo. The water footprint (WF) method was applied to assess the water used on the cellulose production of native forest and eucalyptus, given the use of this method by the industry. Also, the Climatic Water Balance, General Water Balance methods and the Ecosystem Services approach were used in order to perform an extended and integrated analysis of the hydrological behavior of the basin. By analyzing these methods, it was found that the products WF only assesses the efficiency in water use, which can mask high water consumption with higher productivity per hectare. This because a smaller value for wood WF was observed, in m³/ton for eucalyptus, and higher total water use, in m³ per hectare per year, compared to the native forest. The results observed by the Climatic Water Balance analysis for the main vegetation cover showed that the eucalyptus presented higher evapotranspiration and smaller water surplus. The General Water Balance, analyzed on a monthly basis, showed that the vegetation has an impact on the water provision service and competes for water with other users in the basin (natural and anthropic) in periods with less precipitation. Finally, it was concluded that local measurements are required to determine the runnof volumes (superficial and subsurface), infiltration, as well as the process of leaching and soil loss in order to have a more accurate assessment of the hydrological impacts of the eucalyptus monoculture.

El conocimiento de los procesos hidrológicos es esencial para la gestión de los recursos hídricos tanto desde el punto de vista cuantitativo (crecidas o sequías) como desde el punto de vista cualitativo (contaminación). El funcionamiento hidrológico de las cuencas mediterráneas es aún bastante desconocido a pesar de los diferentes estudios realizados desde hace una veintena de años. Los progresos realizados en la identificación y modelización de los procesos hidrológicos corresponden casi en la totalidad a investigaciones realizadas en clima templado-húmedo (Bonell y Balek, 1993; Buttle, 1994). Esta falta de información, fuerza según Bonell (1993) a la "transferencia de resultados", a pesar de la necesidad evidente de desarrollar aproximaciones diferentes, principalmente en el ámbito de la modelización (Pilgrim et al. 1988). Por lo que se refiere a la modelación hidrológica, los estudios disponibles (Durand et al., 1992; Parkin et al., 1996; Piñol et al., 1997 entre otros) muestran serias dificultades para reproducir las primeras crecidas de otoño, después del periodo estival seco. Para estas cuencas parece difícil modelizar correctamente uno o más años hidrológicos completos con un solo juego de parámetros (Piñol et al., 1997, Bernal et al., 2004). El clima mediterráneo está caracterizado por una dinámica estacional muy marcada del régimen de precipitaciones y de la evapotranspiración, que favorece la alternancia durante el año de periodos secos y húmedos. Esto modifica fuertemente el estado hidrológico de la cuenca, de lo que deriva un comportamiento hidrológico complejo y no-lineal (Piñol et al. 1999). La necesidad de comprender el funcionamiento hidrológico de un sistema responde a dos cuestiones importantes: por un lado es el procedimiento más indicado para proporcionar elementos útiles a la gestión integrada de los recursos hídricos y por otro lado es fundamental para la modelación del comportamiento de nutrientes por ejemplo como el nitrato. / Medici ., C. (2010). Progressive development of a hydrologic and inorganic nitrogen conceptual model to improve the understanding of small Mediterranean catchments behaviour [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/8428 / Palancia

In 2015-2016 Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN) and other provinces in South Africa suffered from drought conditions. Drought can have negative impacts on the environment, society and the economy. Climate change is predicted to exacerbate extreme events such as droughts that would adversely affect already vulnerable regions such as KZN. The main aim of this study is to implement the attribution procedure, to determine if climate change has contributed to the 2015-2016 hydrological drought in selected KZN catchments. Methodology of the study followed a general framework of implementation of hydrological attribution experiments with climate data obtained from attribution simulations with HadAM3p global climate model. Prior to simulations in attribution mode, QSWAT model was set up for the study area and calibrated using SWAT-CUP and SUFI-2. Calibration results were poor but the model could be applied in the context of this study, under certain constraints. Results of attribution experiments revealed that for all 3 subbasins studied no increase of risk was observed and hence no influence of climate change on the 2015-2016 magnitude of drought for selected catchments was concluded by this study. These results are limited, as they are based on climate attribution experiments with only one climate model, rather than with a multi-model ensemble. Also, QSWAT model, in its implementation with generic climate data is of limited use in attribution (or hydrological) simulations as even after calibration the model performs poorly.

Floods are caused by extreme meteorological and hydrological changes that are influenced directly or indirectly by human activities within the environment. The flood trends show that floods will reoccur and shall continue to affect the livelihoods, property, agriculture and the surrounding environment. This research has analyzed the riverine flood by integrating remote sensing, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and hydraulic and/or hydrological modeling, to develop informed flood mapping for flood risk management. The application of Hydrological Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC RAS) and HEC HMS models, developed by the USA Hydrologic Engineering Center of the Army Corps of Engineers in a data-poor environment of a developing country were successful, as a flood modeling tools in early warning systems and land use planning. The methodology involved data collection, preparation, and model simulation using 30m Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) as a critical data input of HEC RAS model. The findings showed that modeling using HEC-RAS and HEC HMS models in a data-poor environment requires intensive data enhancements and adjustments; multiple utilization of open sources data; carrying out multiple model computation iterations and calibration; multiple field observation, which may be constrained with time and resources to get reasonable output.

Reusing stormwater is a sustainable approach that a lot of cities around the world, including cities in Canada, are developing to improve local and regional water resources. For this purpose, water is typically withdrawn from stormwater ponds (large urban infrastructure that retain stormwater) and used for applications that require less than pristine water quality. However, the large size of these ponds along with the heterogeneity in water quality internally, make the withdrawal location from these ponds for reusable stormwater critically important. Also due to the large sizes of these ponds, collecting data throughout the pond to determine the optimal location for withdrawal is not practical. Modelling however, can provide a more practical means of studying contaminant distribution within the pond over time in order to identify the withdrawal location, among other valuable information. In this dissertation, a modelling approach was developed that simulates fate and transport of bacteria in stormwater ponds after rainstorm events. The model was run to simulate bacteria in the Inverness stormwater pond, which is a large T-shaped pond located in southeast of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The model has two components: a hydrological component and a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) component. The hydrological component calculates the stormwater runoff of the subbasins of the catchment draining into the pond. The results were compared with collected data and good agreement was observed. Then, the results were fed to the CFD component as input in order to simulate the distribution of contamination brought in by the local hydrology. The CFD component simulates the hydrodynamics of the pond 3-dimensionally. The model was run based on collected data from the pond and multiple versions of the model were developed with regard to free-surface and particulate-attached bacteria transport. In order to address a common issue with hydro-environmental models – being difficult to validate - the model was validated in two ways. First, an instrument was designed and built to measure fluid flow velocity magnitude and direction in the pond. Once calibrated, it was deployed to the pond and the flow field was measured at multiple locations for validation purposes. Second, a non-dimensional number was introduced allowing a comparison between the bacteria concentration data from collected data and that of modelling result in multiple locations of the pond. In both of the validations, good agreement with collected data was observed. A volume of Fluid model and sediment transport model were integrated into the model, which allowed consideration of free-surface effects and for modeling wider range of bacteria, respectively. The model was used to identify the optimal location for water withdrawal for reuse. The middle of the pond, where the three wings join and near the surface, was located as the optimal location due to the lowest bacteria concentration. In an attempt to improve the water quality in the optimal location, strategic tree planting on the north bank of the West wing was studied. It was shown that the trees can reduce the transport of bacteria from the most contaminated location to the withdrawal location. The model was also used to study the impact of some of the important assumptions and environmental factors, such as rain and wind, on bacteria distribution. Wind was found to play a crucial role in the bacteria distribution in the pond. / Graduate

Magíster en Ciencias de la Ingeniería, Mención Recursos y Medio Ambiente Hídrico. Ingeniero Civil / La representación del ciclo hidrológico es, hasta el día de hoy, difícil de modelar producto de diversos desafíos entre los que se encuentran la heterogeneidad de la cuenca, la representación de procesos físicos, las observaciones disponibles, la incertidumbre en las forzantes del modelo y la incertidumbre estructural, entre otros. Sin embargo, en los últimos años se ha puesto a dis-posición de la comunidad diversos productos e imágenes satelitales que buscan aumentar la disponibilidad de información mediante percepción remota. Algunas de las variables hidroló-gicas de interés que hay disponibles son la fracción de área cubierta por nieve, la humedad de suelo, la evapotranspiración, el equivalente en agua de nieve, índices de vegetación, precipita-ción, temperatura del suelo y el albedo. En este trabajo se busca incorporar información de percepción remota para analizar si su inclusión mejora la modelación hidrológica tradicional que se basa, principalmente, en el contraste de caudales modelados con los observados. La zona de estudio corresponde a tres sub-cuencas del río Elqui, en la Región de Coquimbo, que están definidas por estaciones fluviométricas pertenecientes a la DGA: río Cochiguaz en el Peñón, estero Derecho en Alcohuaz y río Toro antes junta río La Laguna. En estas cuencas se intenta (1) estimar los caudales usando el modelo CRHM (Cold Regions Hydrological Model) considerando que no existe información fluviométrica, bajo la hipótesis que es posible estimar el caudal de manera razonable si se calibran parámetros asociados a otros procesos del ciclo hidrológico, (2) calibrar el modelo usando sólo caudales y (3) incorporar la información de percepción remota junto con la fluviométrica para representar el ciclo hidrológico. Todo esto a una escala temporal horaria, con forzantes que se construyen a partir de información de la red meteorológica DGA en conjunto con la red CEAZA. Los resultados muestran que estimar la escorrentía en cuencas sin información fluvio-métrica sigue siendo un desafío, pues los caudales estimados a partir de la calibración de otros procesos entregan, para distintos sets de parámetros, índices NSE que, en promedio, son 0,56, 0,26 y -0,29 para Cochiguaz, Derecho y Toro respectivamente. No obstante, la modelación que considera percepción remota y caudales mejora los índices de 0,74 a 0,89 y de 0,75 a 0,8 para las cuencas Cochiguaz y Derecho respectivamente. En el caso del río Toro, el NSE se mantiene en 0,74.