The topic of my diploma thesis is {\clqq}The yield, risk and liquidity of investment options{\crqq}. In the introductory part of this thesis, I define the concept of investment. Furthermore, I deal with the financial market theory and with the characteristics of the subsegments which work within this market. I also define securities, their types and specifics. The next part of the thesis is aimed at the investment strategy which should help an investor to proceed reasonably while investing. Herein, I focused on the rules of the magic triangle and on the definition of the yield, risk and liquidity. I mention the theory of the investment portfolio as well. This is followed by the description of the selected investment options divided into subchapters about individual and collective investments; this being the selection of only the most important investment instruments one can use both in the money market and in the stock market. In the rest of the thesis, I deal with the creating of an individual{\crq}s investment portfolio and with the comparison of the yield, risk and liquidity of the selected options.

Orientador: Fernando José Von Zuben / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T06:49:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Azevedo_CarlosRenatoBelo_D.pdf: 3449858 bytes, checksum: 7a1811aa772f1ae996e8851c60627b7c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treino / Abstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolume / Doutorado / Engenharia de Computação / Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica

The subject of the diploma thesis is to evaluate the development in post-crisis years and to determine the impacts that affect the current financial investment environment in the USA but also its future and create the prerequisites for other risks, which the market can affect in the next perspective and influence the global development. On this basis, a portfolio of the mutual fund will be drawn up, according to the assignment of its manager with an alternative investment component, which can adequately complement it in the current period of low interest rates.

В магистерской диссертации проведено исследование опыта организации институтов пенсионного обеспечения и практики управления средствами пенсионных фондов в России и за рубежом. Предложен механизм формирования эффективного портфеля ценных бумаг в негосударственных пенсионных фондах. / In the master's thesis, a study of the experience of the organization of pension institutions and the practice of managing pension funds in Russia and abroad was conducted. The mechanism of formation of an effective portfolio of securities in non-state pension funds is proposed.

Магистерская диссертация посвящена анализу специфики инвестиционной деятельности на финансовом рынке и формированию наиболее оптимальной структуры инвестиционного портфеля. Целью исследования является формирование инвестиционных портфелей для разных возрастных групп частных инвесторов. Научной новизной исследования являются моделирование инвестиционных портфелей с заданными критериями оптимизации, авторские рекомендации по инвестированию, дополнение классификации рисков инвестирования на финансовом рынке, выделение критериев выбора биржевого брокера. / The master's thesis is devoted to the analysis of specifics of investment activity in the financial market and formation of the most optimal theoretical base for trading on stock exchange. The purpose of the study is to form invest portfolio for different age groups of private investors. The scientific novelty of the research is the modeling of investment portfolios with specified optimization criteria, author's recommendations for investment, addition of a classification of investment risks in the financial market, and selection of criteria for choosing a stock broker.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:48:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 71050100718.pdf.jpg: 12656 bytes, checksum: 70340ae65c49c6fee3a991247dc4ef5b (MD5) 71050100718.pdf.txt: 321921 bytes, checksum: 2a3fd8e10dce647d19b0906c936496e2 (MD5) 71050100718.pdf: 1109092 bytes, checksum: fd5777ca389880dab6d98b5c7c624391 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-02-20T00:00:00Z / The main objective of this thesis is to test the hypothesis that utility preferences that incorporate asymmetric reactions between gains and losses generate better results, when applied to the Brazilian market, than the classic Von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility function. The asymmetric behavior can be computed through the introduction of a disappointment (or loss) aversion coefficient in the classical expected utility function, which increases the impact of losses against gains. This kind of adjustment is supported by recent developments in financial theory, specially those studies that try to solve the violations of the expected utility axioms. The analysis of the implications of such adjustment is made through the comparison of the results regarding the participation of the risky asset (stock market) in the composition of the optimum portfolio (the one that maximizes utility) generated by both types of preferences: expected utility and loss aversion utility functions. The results are then compared with real data from two types of Brazilian investors (pension funds and households) aiming at verifying the capacity of each utility function to replicate real investment data from these investors. The results of the tests show that it is not possible to reject the expected utility function as an adequate representative model for the aggregate behavior of Brazilian pension funds. However, the simulations indicate that this type of function should be rejected as an adequate model to replicate real investment decisions of Brazilian individual investors (households). The behavior of this type of investors can be better replicated by applying a loss aversion utility function. / O principal objetivo deste trabalho é analisar se o uso de preferências que incorporem assimetria na reação do investidor frente a ganhos e perdas permite gerar resultados mais coerentes com o comportamento real de investidores brasileiros na seleção de portfólios ótimos de investimento. Uma das formas de tratar o comportamento assimétrico se dá através da introdução do coeficiente de aversão a perdas (ou ao desapontamento) na função utilidade tradicional, coeficiente este que aumenta o impacto das perdas frente aos ganhos. A aplicação deste ajuste na função utilidade tradicional decorre de recentes avanços na teoria de finanças, mais especificamente daqueles estudos que buscam solucionar as violações dos axiomas da teoria da utilidade esperada, violações estas já demonstradas empiricamente através de testes de laboratório. A análise das implicações do uso deste tipo de função é feita através da comparação dos resultados quanto à participação do ativo com risco (mercado acionário) na composição do portfólio ótimo (aquele que maximiza a utilidade) do investidor gerados por dois tipos de função utilidade: tradicional e com aversão a perdas. Os resultados são comparados com dados reais de participação do mercado acionário nos investimentos totais de dois tipos de investidores brasileiros - fundos de pensão e investidores individuais - visando verificar a adequação dos resultados de cada função em relação ao comportamento destes investidores. Os resultados mostram que não é possível rejeitar a função utilidade tradicional como modelo representativo do comportamento agregado dos fundos de pensão. Por outro lado, as simulações indicam que a função utilidade tradicional deve ser rejeitada como modelo representativo do comportamento dos investidores individuais, sendo o comportamento destes investidores melhor representado por uma função que incorpora aversão a perdas.

The aim of this work was to analyze selected branch from the stock market through technical and fundamental analysis. The target is to formulate the most appropriate investment strategy for each sector. The starting point for selecting appropriate investment strategy is inefficient market hypothesis. Selection of the investment strategy, depend on the current economic situation. Based on given results, it is not recommended to use any of the strategies. However, it can propose a suitable investment portfolio. The selected investment portfolio is certainly dependent on many factors. Among these factors belongs the current economic situation and investor´s attitude to risk. Choosing an investment strategy is also influenced by the investor's own attitude to the theory of efficient markets. Investors will opt for active or passive investment strategy on the basis of their opinion.

The thesis deals with investment decision making. It starts from the decision making situation about the making of an investment portfolio of the open unit trusts. The whole decision making process is described, namely the methodical approaches used in terms of the portfolio making procedure. Thus, the main part of this paper focuses on a detailed description of an algorithm of the fuzzy weight estimation method, fuzzy multiple criteria evaluation method and fuzzy multiple objective programming method. The methods are proposed on the basis of current concepts; they conclude the new ideas as well. The fuzzy weight estimation method is able to calculate the weights of criteria according to their linguistically expressed importance. The fuzzy multiple criteria evaluation method accepts uncertain input data in the form of the fuzzy numbers. The alternatives are evaluated by the concept of the preference relations. This method provides a division of the alternatives into the effective and ineffective. The fuzzy multiple objective programming method also works with the uncertain elements as fuzzy numbers. To solve the particular mathematical models, the Bellman's optimality approach is applied. The method is proposed in the interactive form. The decision maker can change a current solution by his/her additional (vague) preferences. The proposed concepts form the two-phase decision making procedure that is applied in the practical situation of the portfolio making in the field of the capital market with open unit trusts offered by the Česká spořitelna investment company. Two types of investors are defined, the investment situations are described, and the results are analyzed in detail. The decision making theory, the fuzzy sets theory and the capital market of collective investment, or with unit trusts, are introduced in a necessary scope. The instigation of my dissertation is to solve the real decision making situation. The investment decision making process is described and the methodical approaches are proposed in order to make the portfolio of unit trusts.