This paper explains how the Islamic State grew rapidly, answering a question of "what is" the Islamic State? A review of existing literature on simulation modeling of insurgencies identifies several gaps, as existing theories of non-state actors and insurgencies are inadequate to explain ISIS's performance. Additionally, there are few mathematical simulation models of insurgent behavior that can reproduce ISIS results. Finally, what models exist are not detailed enough either to conduct detailed experiments testing proposed explanations of ISIS, or evaluate policy responses aimed at containing or mitigating ISIS. The paper offers several contributions. First it proposes a dynamic hypothesis that the Islamic State (ISIS) is an emerging-state actor, a new form of actor that differs from traditional non- state actors and insurgencies. Propositions are constructed and presented as an overall theory of emerging-state actor behavior. These propositions are then simulated as experiments within a detailed model parameterized with conditions very similar to what ISIS faced in Iraq and Syria 2013. The model is then run from 2013-2020, and experiment results confirm evidence of emerging- state actor behavior and allow refinement of model boundary assumptions. Second, an initial set of intervention policies are tested in a variety of conditions: best case, operationally constrained, isolated, combined, and at different timing intervals. Analysis of the results yields key dynamic insights. These insights aid policy makers in understanding the challenges posed by emerging state actors. Finally, the detailed simulation model used to test the propositions and policy analysis, including a novel approach to combat simulation with endogenous geospatial feedback, is provided in full detail in two Appendices. Appendix A provides a sector-by-sector view of model structure and equations. Appendix B provides more discussion, analysis and sources used to develop model structure, establish parameter values and determine equations for the simulation. Due to length and other considerations, Appendix B is available only upon request. The detailed simulation model can be used to refine non-state actor theories (configured for insurgencies, emerging-state actors, or other scenarios). The model can be loaded with other scenarios to simulate other actors in other geospatial terrain: ISIS in Libya, Boko Haram in Nigeria, the returning Taliban in Afghanistan, etc. Keywords: ISIS, ISIL, DAESH, insurgency, conflict, security, stability, non-state actor, emerging- state actor, combat simulator, geospatial, national security.

This paper explains how the Islamic State grew rapidly, answering a question of "what is" the Islamic State? A review of existing literature on simulation modeling of insurgencies identifies several gaps, as existing theories of non-state actors and insurgencies are inadequate to explain ISIS's performance. Additionally, there are few mathematical simulation models of insurgent behavior that can reproduce ISIS results. Finally, what models exist are not detailed enough either to conduct detailed experiments testing proposed explanations of ISIS, or evaluate policy responses aimed at containing or mitigating ISIS. The paper offers several contributions. First it proposes a dynamic hypothesis that the Islamic State (ISIS) is an emerging-state actor, a new form of actor that differs from traditional non- state actors and insurgencies. Propositions are constructed and presented as an overall theory of emerging-state actor behavior. These propositions are then simulated as experiments within a detailed model parameterized with conditions very similar to what ISIS faced in Iraq and Syria 2013. The model is then run from 2013-2020, and experiment results confirm evidence of emerging- state actor behavior and allow refinement of model boundary assumptions. Second, an initial set of intervention policies are tested in a variety of conditions: best case, operationally constrained, isolated, combined, and at different timing intervals. Analysis of the results yields key dynamic insights. These insights aid policy makers in understanding the challenges posed by emerging state actors. Finally, the detailed simulation model used to test the propositions and policy analysis, including a novel approach to combat simulation with endogenous geospatial feedback, is provided in full detail in two Appendices. Appendix A provides a sector-by-sector view of model structure and equations. Appendix B provides more discussion, analysis and sources used to develop model structure, establish parameter values and determine equations for the simulation. Due to length and other considerations, Appendix B is available only upon request. The detailed simulation model can be used to refine non-state actor theories (configured for insurgencies, emerging-state actors, or other scenarios). The model can be loaded with other scenarios to simulate other actors in other geospatial terrain: ISIS in Libya, Boko Haram in Nigeria, the returning Taliban in Afghanistan, etc. Keywords: ISIS, ISIL, DAESH, insurgency, conflict, security, stability, non-state actor, emerging- state actor, combat simulator, geospatial, national security.

The purpose of this quantitative cross-sectional study was to obtain a more accurate diagnosis of the factors that incite terrorism through examining the extent to which independent variables (the Group Grievance Index (GGI), the Legitimate State Index (LSI), and the External Intervention Index (EII)) can predict the dependent variable (the level of global terrorism (GTI)) for the period between 2006-2017. The study included data from the 162 member states of the United Nations, covering 99.7% of the world's population. Game theory and the political process theory provided the theoretical frameworks for the study. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to assess the effect of the interaction on the relation between GGI, SLI, EII, and GTI. The results of the study showed that the relationship between the level of terrorism and the independent variables varies according to the level of terrorism. Interaction between GGI, SLI, and EII was negatively associated with GTI in countries with low GTI risk with an adjusted odds ratio 0.99, but in the countries with a medium and high level of GTI, the relationship was positive, and the adjusted odds ratio was respectively 1.01 and 1.02. The findings benefit international and national security decision-makers by identifying the nature of the relationship between terrorism and the factors affecting it. As well, the importance of considering the interaction between variables that affect terrorism. The results of the study may serve to bring social change within government cultures in the third world when dealing with minorities and grievance groups. Furthermore, it may motivate third world nations to achieve legitimate representation within all social strata and push the international community to reduce interference in the affairs of other sovereign nations.

This dissertation is a study of US foreign policy that aims at maintaining its regional hegemonic status and preventing the emergence of another regional hegemon by implementing the offshore balancing strategy. US intervention during the 2003 Iraq War, strained US-Iran relationship, and the establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in early 2014 compel a reevaluation of US foreign policy. Two major claims of this dissertation include: (1) US foreign policy is consistent with offensive realist theoretical claims; and (2) US foreign policy is characterized by continuity when it comes to issues related to America's strategic interests. Utilizing a case study and comparative case study methodology, this dissertation outlines the following findings. The first finding of this dissertation is that US foreign policy actions under the Bush Doctrine, which led to the 2003 Iraq War, were dictated by the anarchic status of the international system, the possession by Iraq of military capabilities that could harm or destroy America, fear from and suspicion of Iraq's intentions, the need to ensure survival in an anarchic system, and the need to maximize relative power vis-à-vis other states. All these factors led to three main pattern of behavior: fear, self-help, and power maximization. Because there was no other regional great power capable and willing to balance Iraq, the US was forced to rely on direct balancing by threatening Iraq to take military actions, creating an anti-Iraqi alliance, and maximizing its relative power by destroying Iraq's military capabilities. Second, US foreign policy under the Bush Doctrine was a continuation of the 20th century foreign policy. US foreign policy during the 20th century was dictated by three major patterns of behavior: fear, self-help, and power maximization. In realizing its foreign policy goals, the US had to rely on buck-passing and balancing strategies. Whenever there was no regional great power able and willing "to carry the buck", the US would rely on direct balancing by either threatening the aggressor, creating alliances with other regional states, or utilizing additional resources of its own. Four major presidential doctrines and related occurrences were utilized to test the claim: the Roosevelt Corollary, the Truman Doctrine, the Carter Doctrine, and the Reagan Doctrine. The last finding of this dissertation is that US foreign policy toward Iran constitutes continuity and is dictated by US need to maintain regional hegemony by acting as an offshore balancer. In addition, the US and Iran share mutual strategic interests in several occasions, and a strategic win or loss for one state is a win or loss for the other. Like that of the US, Iran's foreign policy is guided by rationality. The Iran-Contra affair, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, and the Russia-Chechnya conflict support the claim that Iran's foreign policy is based on rationality instead of religious ideology as argued by many scholars. Also, the 2001 Afghanistan war, the 2003 Iraq war, and the establishment of the ISIL support the claim that the US and Iran share mutual strategic interests. Cooperation is often desirable and in some cases inevitable. Despite this strong claim, US-Iran relationship has its own limitations because neither the US nor Iran would accept a too powerful other that could establish absolute dominance in the region.

explains the reasons behind Boko Haram's unconventional tactic of kidnapping uses abductees as 'human bombs' Boko Haram's unconventional Kidnapping for at Boko Haram's martyrdom concept must have failed Overall, this dissertation concludes that Boko Haram's Kidnapping

This thesis set out to research why ISIS combatants use sexual violence when they target the Yazidi community in particular. The aims have been to provide an understanding of why ISIS target Yazidi women and girls with sexual violence and develop a better understanding of both groups and thus hopefully provide assistance that is contextually adapted to the needs of Yazidi women and girls who have been targeted by ISIS. This has been done through a case study, where ISIS has been the case and the Yazidi population has been the subunit of analysis. Materials that have been released by ISIS, as well as witness statements that have been made available as secondary sources have been analysed, by applying the three theories/conceptual frameworks evolution theory, feminist theory, and the strategic rape concept to this data. The results are that the three frameworks separately cannot provide an explanation for the phenomena. Evolution theory did not provide any explanations for ISIS’ behaviour at all, not even when combined with the other frameworks. However, feminist theory in combination with the strategic rape concept explains the behaviour of ISIS, to a certain extent. There is however, a gap today in wartime sexual violence conceptualizations that need to be filled with an overarching theory that includes elements of both feminist theory and the strategic rape concept. The reasons for ISIS’ use of sexual violence are multi-layered. Sexual violence is used as strategy of war for political and religious reasons, as well as, to an extent, because of misogyny. ISIS are aiming to assimilate the area of the caliphate, while at the same time violently targeting the Yazidi population, by using their interpretation of religion as a justification, and until they reach this target of homogeneity for the caliphate, they will continue using sexual violence as a strategy of war and for the appropriation of territory and justify it with religion.

Since 2010 The Islamic State (IS) has resurrected from virtual extinction and has conquered vast territories in Iraq and Syria. It has transformed from a simple group of insurgents to a conventional army which has claimed to be a state of its own since it announced the for-mation of the Caliphate in mid-2014. Researchers have used many different theories to un-derstand the success of IS which has increased our knowledge of the phenomenon. Even so there are still questions that need to be answered in order to fully understand what we are facing in the Middle East (ME) today and what we might encounter in other parts of the world tomorrow. This essay uses revolutionary theories about Communism and Nationalism with the intent to expand our view of modern insurgencies. More precisely it investigates why IS has been so successful in its conquests, which are done through the narrative of its attitude towards the population of Iraq and Syria. The result reveals that IS uses a combination of the two above-mentioned ideologies. IS keeps conflicts going through constant terror against specific groups thus creating a gap be-tween the governments and the Sunnis in the region. Simultaneously it is trying to create an environment where the inhabitants can experience normal living conditions. The future of the ME is worrying since IS and its way of gaining conquests is hard to battle for whoever is intervening.

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