This thesis provides an overview of identifying the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The ITCZ is a zone of wind convergence around the equator that coincides with an area of intense precipitation that is commonly termed a tropical rainbelt. In Africa, these two concepts are frequently confounded. This work studies the correlation between precipitation and commonly used ITCZ indicators. A further attempt is made to detect movement in the African ITCZ, based on earlier paleontological studies showing historical changes in precipitation. Zonally averaged wind convergence is found to be the most reliable indicator of the African ITCZ, one having a low correlation with zonally averaged precipitation. Precipitation is found only to be a reliable indicator for the African ITCZ in zones near the wind convergence, which reaches as far north as 20_N in the summer. No secular change in location of the African ITCZ is found for the time of available data. Finally, historical data shows that any increase in precipitation in the Sahel, a region where precipitation is driven by the ITCZ, is mildly negatively correlated with precipitation in the rainbelt area, suggesting that shifts in the ITCZ result in a widening of the precipitation profile as well as a shift of the entire zone.

<p>This paper aims to give an understanding on the aspects that influences the choice of cropsand agricultural methods in Babati, Tanzania. Drought is a reoccurring problem in this part ofTanzania, which affects a majority of the towns’ farmers. This fact is likely to affect thechoice of crop as well as the limitations when it comes to the choices in cultivation. But thechoice itself has implications on its surrounding and can be affected by the surrounding. Tounderstand the circumstances, a wider picture will be depicted and an evaluation of thegeography of Babati and on its climate conditions. The results from this study suggest thatlack of crop rotation pose as a problem that should be studied. Furthermore, green manurefrom legumes and plants like Tithonia could be a less expensive alternative but can stillfunction as an effective fertilizer. Concerning the drought issue the study can not concludethat drought resistant crops would have any big improving effects. Nevertheless there is someevidence advocating that it could be apart of the solution in terms of avoiding some of thenegative effects brought on by drought.</p>

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Paleoclimate records from North and South America were used to develop a holistic understanding of global paleo-hydroclimatic drivers across a range of boundary conditions. Here, geophysical analysis of lacustrine sediment stratigraphy at Lago de Tota, Boyaca, Colombia provided evidence for significant lake-level fluctuations through the late Quaternary and produced a record that potentially spans the last 60 ka. Seismic data revealed a series of off-lap and on-lap sequences in the upper ~20 m of sediments that indicated large amplitude changes in lake-level, driven by variability in the mean latitude of the Intertropical Convergence Zone as controlled by insolation- and ocean circulation-driven hemispheric temperature gradients during glacial/stadial and interglacial/interstadial events. In North America, late Holocene flood recurrence in the Midwest and Holocene changes in the mean latitude of the polar front jet stream were investigated through multi-proxy examinations of sediment cores collected from swale lakes in northern Kentucky and southern Indiana, and a glacially formed kettle lake in northern Indiana. These results showed that the midlatitude jet stream was displaced to the south during the late Holocene, which increased the amount of Midwestern precipitation sourced from the northern Pacific and Arctic, especially during prolonged cool conditions. During these cool periods, when atmospheric flow was meridional and a greater amount of precipitation was delivered from the northerly sources, Ohio River flooding increased. During warm conditions, when clockwise mean-state atmospheric circulation advected southerly moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Midwest, flooding on the Ohio River decreased. At present, streamflow in the Midwest is demonstrated here to be generally increasing, despite atmospheric conditions typically associated with reduced streamflow in the paleo-record, due in part to increasing precipitation and modern land-use dynamics. Together, these studies demonstrate the sensitivity and vulnerability of local-scale hydrological processes to synoptic climate change.

The location of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone plays an important role in the climatology of tropical regions. Yet, despite its importance, the basic physics that determine the location of the ITCZ are not fully understood. Observational analyses show that, where the cross-equatorial pressure gradient is strong, the maximum convection is not necessarily associated with the highest sea surface temperature,or correspondingly, the lowest sea level pressure. Tomas and Webster (1997) argue that if a strong enough cross-equatorial pressure gradient exists and the system is inertialy unstable, secondary ameliorating circulations will drive strong off-equatorial convection in regions where ITCZ location is determined by low tropospheric dynamics. The observational record is re-examined to test the inertial instability hypothesis using the new ECMWF reanalysis data set. Composite analyses are performed to study the structure of the summer meridional circulation for the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean. In agreement with Tomas and Webster theory, we find that the magnitude of the cross-equatorial pressure difference appears to determine the intensity of convection with low values of outgoing longwave radiation always to the north of the zero absolute vorticity line, and the absolute vorticity advection equatorward of the this line. Also the observed oscillation period of the disturbance for the studied regions coincides with theoretical oscillation period of the inertial flow.

This paper aims to give an understanding on the aspects that influences the choice of cropsand agricultural methods in Babati, Tanzania. Drought is a reoccurring problem in this part ofTanzania, which affects a majority of the towns’ farmers. This fact is likely to affect thechoice of crop as well as the limitations when it comes to the choices in cultivation. But thechoice itself has implications on its surrounding and can be affected by the surrounding. Tounderstand the circumstances, a wider picture will be depicted and an evaluation of thegeography of Babati and on its climate conditions. The results from this study suggest thatlack of crop rotation pose as a problem that should be studied. Furthermore, green manurefrom legumes and plants like Tithonia could be a less expensive alternative but can stillfunction as an effective fertilizer. Concerning the drought issue the study can not concludethat drought resistant crops would have any big improving effects. Nevertheless there is someevidence advocating that it could be apart of the solution in terms of avoiding some of thenegative effects brought on by drought.

La carotte KZai02, forée dans le cône détritique sous-marin du fleuve Zaire/Congo, renseigne du stade isotopique 6.6 à l’Actuel (derniers 165 ka). La dynamique de la végétation de l’Afrique Centrale a été reconstruite sur la base de l’étude de son contenu pollinique. Ces résultats, comparés à ceux du contenu en carbone organique total et au rapport Ti/K, renseignent respectivement sur l’activité des alizés et l’intensité de la mousson dans le passé. Les glaciaires sont caractérisées par des températures basses empêchant le développement de la forêt tropicale humide sur le bassin versant du Zaïre/Congo au bénéfice des savanes. Les interglaciaires sont marquées par le développement de la forêt tropicale humide et des marais de mangrove sur la côte suite à l’élévation du niveau marin. Le passage progressif de zones herbeuses à des environnements plus forestiers témoigne d’un décalage entre les augmentations de température et d’humidité. Le stade isotopique 5 montre deux événements moins chauds (sous-stades 5b et 5d) avec le développement des forêts afromontagnardes (principalement Podocarpus). L’excentricité, l’obliquité et particulièrement la précession ont été identifiées comme ayant exercé une influence sur les écosystèmes végétaux. Ces périodicités ont été interprétées en termes de variations des précipitations liées à des fluctuations de l’ITCZ. Des cycles infra-Milankovitch ont aussi été révélés par l’analyse spectrale. Ils sont attribués (1) aux pulsations glaciaires des événements de Heinrich et de Dansgaard/Oeschger et (2) à des variations à haute fréquence semblables à celles décelées sur la mousson est-asiatique et reliées au contrôle des calottes polaires / Core KZai02 from the Zaire/Congo deep sea fan runs from MIS 6.6 to Present (last 1685 ka). Its pollen study allows to reconstruct the vegetation past variations over the Central Africa. These results, compared to the Total Organic Carbon content (TOC) and the Ti/K ratio, inform on the past trade winds and West African monsoon variability, respectively. During glacials, low temperatures over the Zaire/Congo watershed prevented the development of the tropical rain forest in opposition to savannah. Each interglacial starts with the development of mangrove testifying to events of sea-level rise. Then, the succession of grassy and forested environments indicates a gap between temperature and humidity rises. During the warmer episodes, rain forest expanded over the Central Africa. The Marine Isotope Stage 5 includes two cooler events supported by expansion of the afromontane forest (mainly Podocarpus) corresponding to substages 5b and 5d. Eccentricity, obliquity and particularly precession are identified in variations of the ecological groups of the KZai 02 pollen record and interpreted in terms of variations of precipitations linked to fluctuations of the ITCZ. Sub-Milankovitch periods are also revealed by spectral analysis and related to (1) the Heinrich and Dansgaard/Oeschger glacial pulsation events and (2) high frequency variations similar to the East Asian monsoon oscillations controlled by ice sheets

A Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ITCZ) marca a área de ar ascendente nos trópicos, associada com altas pluviosidades e característica chave da circulação tropical da célula de Hadley, dominando o ciclo hidrológico sazonalmente sobre os trópicos, com precipitação máxima associada ao hemisfério com as maiores temperaturas da superfície do mar. As alterações de longo prazo na posição ITCZ tem sido considerada como um importante fator de controle da paleo-precipitação na área equatorial para avaliar as alterações relativas na sua posição e intensidade em escalas de tempo orbitais e milenar. A este respeito, há uma necessidade de registros de precipitação com amplia profundida temporal, alta resolução e bem datados no norte da América do Sul para avaliar como o deslocamento da ITCZ influenciou a paleo-precipitação na região e sua relação com o Sistema da Monção Sul-Americana (SASM). Nosso registro de \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O em espeleotema da caverna de Carracos, localizada no município de El Peñon na região centre leste da Colombia e situado na posição média atual da ITCZ no norte da América do Sul, exibiu mudanças na precipitação durante os últimos 103 ky BP até o presente, com uma curva isotópica continua para o último período deglacial. O registro de El Peñon é composto por nove espeleotemas individuais com um total de 6857 amostras de \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O e um modelo de idade com 132 datações, precisamente datadas pelo método U/Th. Documentamos pela primeira vez como as mudanças de longo prazo na atividade da ITCZ estão associadas a mudanças na circulação do Atlântico Meridional Overturning na escala orbital. Nos eventos GI, GS e HS, há uma mudança relativa na posição e intensidade da ITCZ na região norte da América do Sul, expondo a área de El Peñon como um setor sensível a essas variações, o que gera relações de fase/antifase com registros do Caribe e a área de influência sul daITCZ. Igualmente, é sugerida uma assimetria zonal durante o LGM caracterizada pela posição da ITCZ, levando aumento do fluxo de umidade em Centro America e Colômbia, enquanto condições climáticas contrastantes são observadas do lado leste do continente o sem uma resposta forte nos outros registros de América do Sul. Apesar que as condições nas mudanças oceânicas sejam o fator climático dominante para a variabilidade da ITCZ durante o último período glacial, a forçante de insolação no verão austral ainda é muito evidente durante o Holoceno, levando a um deslocamento para o sul da ITCZ em poucos graus alcançando, sua posição mais meridional no presente. / The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) marks the area of ascending air in the tropics, which is associated with generally high rainfall and is a key feature of the tropical Hadley circulation. This ITCZ dominates the hydrological cycle seasonally over the tropics with maximum rainfall associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in each). Although long-term changes in the ITCZ position have been considered as a major factor controlling paleo-precipitation in the equatorial area to evaluate the relative changes in its position and intensity on both orbital and millennial time scales. In this regard, there is a need for long, high resolution and well-dated records of precipitation in Northern South America to evaluate how the ITCZ has influenced the paleo-precipitation over the SASM domain. Our composite speleothem \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O record from Carracos cave inferring past precipitation changes during the last 103 ky B.P., it is located in the El Peñon municipality in the eastern Colombian Cordillera and the latitude of the study site coincides with the mean modern position of the ITCZ in northern South America. The El Peñon speleothem \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O record is composed of nine individual speleothems with 6857 \'delta\' \'ANTPOT.\'18 O measurements and the chronology of the CAR speleothem record is based on 132 very precise U/Th dates. We document for the first time how long-term changes in ITCZ activity are associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation. In the GI and HS events, there is a relative change in the position and intensity of the ITCZ in the northern region of South America, exposing the El Peñon area as a sector sensitive to these variations, which generates phase/antiphase relationships with records from the Caribbean and the southern area of influence of the ITCZ. The El Peñon speleothem record also suggests that the ITCZ was characterized by a large zonal asymmetry during the LGM, leading to enhanced moisture influx from the Caribbean toward Colombia, intensifying the monsoon over the SASM region of western and southern Brazil and the tropical Andes, while contrasting climate conditions are observed from the eastern side of continent. Although the changing oceanic conditions are notably the dominant climate driver for ITCZ variability during the last glacial period, austral summer insolation forcing is still very evident during the Holocene, leading to a southward displacement of the ITCZ by a few degrees reaching its southernmost position at present-day.

Då de flesta människor i Västafrika, framför allt de som bor innanför kustzonen, livnär sig på jordbruk så är pålitliga väderprognoser och säsongsförutsägelser ett viktigt hjälpmedel i det dagliga arbetet och planeringen. I den här rapporten har en litteraturstudie gjorts för att öka kunskapen om de komplexa, både lokala och storskaliga, väderfenomen som ger upphov till nederbörd i området.   Klimatet i Västafrika, ett område som mestadels täcks av regnskog eller savann, präglas av den västafrikanska monsunen som ger regnperiod under norra halvklotets sommar och torrperiod på vintern. Denna monsun visar på stor årlig variation när det gäller dess inledande faser, och prognoser som kan förutsäga dess början är nödvändigt när en jordbrukare ska planera säsongens verksamhet. Av många bidragande faktorer framgår det tydligt att ytvattentemperaturen i Guineabukten är en av de viktigaste parametrarna för monsunens startskede. Den intertropiska konvergenszonen, ITCZ, betraktas som monsunens nordligaste del och denna konvergenszon gör en plötsligt och relativt snabb förflyttning norrut, i fortsättningen benämnd som språnget, över ca 5 breddgrader, vilket av många ses som starten på regnperioden. En tillfällig tryckgradient som uppstår på grund av en tillfällig men skarp temperaturgradient är den bakomliggande orsaken till detta språng. Den i särklass viktigaste processen som ger upphov till regn i Västafrika är konvektion och även om mycket konvektiv nederbörd faller i samband med monsunen så uppstår det även många lokala och mesoskaliga konvektiva system inom monsunen, framförallt kopplat till ostliga vågor. / Since most people in West Africa, particularly those who live away from the shore, work within agriculture, reliable weather forecasts are important in the daily work. In this report, a literature study has been conducted to increase the knowledge about the complex and local weather phenomenon that causes rain.   West Africa is dominated by rainforest and savannah, and the climate is characterized by the West African monsoon which gives rise to a wet season in the northern hemisphere summer and a dry season during the winter. The monsoon shows wide annual variability in its initial stages and forecasts that can predict its beginning is necessary to the farmers who have to decide when and what to plant. Out of many contributing factors, the sea surface temperature seems to be one of the main parameters that have an impact on the starting stage of the monsoon. The inter tropical convergence zone, ITCZ, is regarded as the northernmost part of the monsoon and it makes a sudden and relatively quick jump over about 5 degrees latitude, which is widely regarded as the start of the rainy season. A temporary pressure gradient caused by differences in temperature adjacent to the ITCZ is the reason for this jump. The dominant process that causes rainfall in West Africa is convection. Although a lot of convective precipitation falls in connection with the northern part of the monsoon, convective systems can appear inside the monsoon flow, often linked to African easterly waves.

The objective of this research is to interpret high-resolution palaeo-proxy data sets to understand the Asian summer monsoon variability in the past. This was done by synthesizing published palaeo-records from the Asian monsoon region, model simulation comparisons, and analysing new lake sedimentary records from northeast Thailand. Palaeo-records and climate modeling indicate a strengthened summer monsoon over Mainland Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), compared to dry conditions in other parts of the Asian monsoon region. This can be explained by the LGM sea level low stand, which exposed Sundaland and created a large land-sea thermal contrast. Sea level rise ~19 600 years before present (BP), reorganized the atmospheric circulation in the Pacific Ocean and weakened the summer monsoon between 20 000 and 19 000 years BP. Both the Mainland Southeast Asia and the East Asian monsoon hydroclimatic records point to an earlier Holocene onset of strengthened summer monsoon, compared to the Indian Ocean monsoon. The asynchronous evolution of the summer monsoon and a time lag of 1500 years between the East Asian and the Indian Ocean monsoon can be explained by the palaeogeography of Mainland Southeast Asia, which acted as a land bridge for the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The palaeo-proxy records from Lake Kumphawapi compare well to the other data sets and suggest a strengthened summer monsoon between 10 000 and 7000 years BP and a weakening of the summer monsoon thereafter. The data from Lake Pa Kho provides a picture of summer monsoon variability over 2000 years. A strengthened summer monsoon prevailed between BC 170-AD 370, AD 800-960 and since AD 1450, and was weaker about AD 370-800 and AD 1300-1450. The movement of the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone explains shifts in summer monsoon intensity, but weakening of the summer monsoon between 960 and 1450 AD could be affected by changes in the Walker circulation. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript..</p>

La carotte KZai02, forée dans le cône détritique sous-marin du fleuve Zaire/Congo, renseigne du stade isotopique 6.6 à l'Actuel (derniers 165 ka). La dynamique de la végétation de l'Afrique Centrale a été reconstruite sur la base de l'étude de son contenu pollinique. Ces résultats, comparés à ceux du contenu en carbone organique total et au rapport Ti/K, renseignent respectivement sur l'activité des alizés et l'intensité de la mousson dans le passé. Les glaciaires sont caractérisées par des températures basses empêchant le développement de la forêt tropicale humide sur le bassin versant du Zaïre/Congo au bénéfice des savanes. Les interglaciaires sont marquées par le développement de la forêt tropicale humide et des marais de mangrove sur la côte suite à l'élévation du niveau marin. Le passage progressif de zones herbeuses à des environnements plus forestiers témoigne d'un décalage entre les augmentations de température et d'humidité. Le stade isotopique 5 montre deux événements moins chauds (sous-stades 5b et 5d) avec le développement des forêts afromontagnardes (principalement Podocarpus). L'excentricité, l'obliquité et particulièrement la précession ont été identifiées comme ayant exercé une influence sur les écosystèmes végétaux. Ces périodicités ont été interprétées en termes de variations des précipitations liées à des fluctuations de l'ITCZ. Des cycles infra-Milankovitch ont aussi été révélés par l'analyse spectrale. Ils sont attribués (1) aux pulsations glaciaires des événements de Heinrich et de Dansgaard/Oeschger et (2) à des variations à haute fréquence semblables à celles décelées sur la mousson est-asiatique et reliées au contrôle des calottes polaires