Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Nowadays, the personal planning is a very important tool for individuals who seek a better quality of life, when planning the economic field becomes a large array of successful planning. For in addition to measuring personal success, supports the search for new goals, as well as enables ensure tranquility that reflects the financial well-being. In this context, the present study is to develop a Model of Economic Planning, to optimize the management of personal wealth, protecting and enhancing the heritage accumulated return on investment, according to the objectives, constraints and needs of the individual. The study was based on the model of Strategic Planning (ESTRADA, 2007), the model of Personal Planning (ESTRADA, 2011), the Modern Theory of Finance and Investment Management Models that address the key aspects for the development and maintenance s personal assets. The methodology consisted in a qualitative research with exploratory objective and descriptive. For the study design was used for literature review and survey. A description and critical analysis of the literature review allowed us to establish the essential elements for the development of the Model Economic Planning. The model consists of four steps that must be developed sequentially, the steps of the model are: Assessment, Formulation, Implementation and Monitoring, and their respective phases. It was also performed to evaluate the profile of the investor using the Item Response Theory (IRT), which proved to be possible calibrate the items to measure the degree of risk tolerance. / Atualmente, o planejamento pessoal é uma ferramenta de suma importância para os indivíduos que buscam uma melhor qualidade de vida, ao se planejar, o campo econômico torna-se um grande vetor de sucesso do planejamento. Pois além de medir o sucesso pessoal, dá suporte na busca de novos objetivos, assim como possibilita garantir uma tranqüilidade financeira que reflete no bem-estar pessoal. Neste contexto, o presente estudo consiste em desenvolver um Modelo de Planejamento Econômico, para otimizar a gestão da riqueza pessoal, protegendo o patrimônio acumulado e potencializando a rentabilidade dos investimentos, conforme os objetivos, restrições e necessidades do indivíduo. Este estudo tomou como base o modelo de modelo de Planejamento Estratégico Pessoal (ESTRADA, 2011), a Teoria das Finanças Modernas e os Modelos de Gestão de Investimentos, que abordam os aspectos determinantes para o desenvolvimento e manutenção do patrimônio pessoal. A metodologia constituiu-se em uma pesquisa de natureza qualitativa, com objetivo exploratório e descritivo. Para o delineamento do estudo, foi utilizada à pesquisa bibliográfica e o levantamento (Survey). A descrição e análise crítica da revisão bibliográfica permitiu estabelecer os elementos essenciais para a elaboração do Modelo de Planejamento Econômico. O modelo desenvolvido é composto de quatro etapas que devem ser desenvolvidas de forma sequencial, as etapas do modelo são: Avaliação, Formulação, Implementação e Monitoramento, além de suas respectivas fases. Também foi realizado a avaliação do perfil do investidor com o uso da Teoria da Resposta ao Item (TRI), que demonstrou ser possível calibrar os itens para medir o grau de tolerância ao risco.

In recent decades, a new theory called Item Response Theory (IRT) has been progressively studied and successfully applied in the construction and analysis of tests. The IRT proposes a set of mathematical models that relate one or more latent traits of an individual with the probability of this to give right answer to an item, this relation is expressed in such a way that the higher the skill, the greater the probability of getting the item (ANDRADE et al. 2000). This bias, the present study aimed to construct and validate an instrument for evaluating the performance of undergraduate engineers, as perceived by the students, from the Item Response Theory. Data collection was conducted through a questionnaire consisting of twenty-six closed items based on Likert scale with responses ranging into four levels of agreement. The instrument assessed the technical and behavioral skills of the undergraduate program coordinator grouped into four dimensions: interpersonal / leadership, responsibility, communication and productivity / commitment for data analysis, we resorted to the exploratory factor analysis and factor analysis of full information . For the validation of the questionnaire used the Logistic Model Parameters 2 (ML2) proposed by TRI. The results indicate twenty items with good ability to discriminate the response of the individual, giving quality to items. The remaining six items, indicated as unsatisfactory should be reworked, retested and validated in future studies, as well as their dimensions. / Nas últimas décadas, uma nova teoria denominada Teoria de Resposta ao Item (TRI) vem sendo, progressivamente, estudada e aplicada com sucesso na construção e análise de testes. A TRI propõe um conjunto de modelos matemáticos que relacionam um ou mais traços latentes de um indivíduo com a probabilidade deste dar certa resposta a um item, sendo esta relação expressa de tal forma que, quanto maior a habilidade, maior a probabilidade de acerto no item (ANDRADE et al., 2000). Nesse viés, o presente estudo buscou construir e validar um instrumento de avaliação de desempenho de coordenadores de curso de graduação, segundo a percepção dos alunos, a partir da Teoria da Resposta ao Item. A coleta de dados foi realizada mediante questionário composto de vinte e seis itens fechados, baseado na escala Likert, com respostas variando em quatro níveis de concordância. O instrumento avaliou as competências técnicas e comportamentais do coordenador de curso de graduação agrupadas em quatro dimensões: relacionamento interpessoal/ liderança, responsabilidade, comunicação e produtividade/ compromisso Para análise dos dados, recorreu-se à análise fatorial exploratória e à análise fatorial de informação plena. Para a validação do questionário utilizou-se o Modelo Logístico de 2 Parâmetros (ML2) proposto pela TRI. Os resultados encontrados apontaram vinte itens com boa capacidade de discriminar a resposta do indivíduo, conferindo qualidade aos itens. Os seis itens restantes, apontados como insatisfatórios devem ser reformulados, testados novamente e validados em estudos futuros, bem como as respectivas dimensões.

Orientador: Caio Lucidius Naberezny Azevedo / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matemática Estatística e Computação Científica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-24T12:51:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ferreira_EduardoVargas_M.pdf: 8131052 bytes, checksum: f344cd1f11e8d818f3aac90f48396cbc (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: No presente trabalho propõem-se novos modelos da Teoria de Resposta ao Item para respostas politômicas nominais e ordinais (graduais), via dados aumentados, para grupos múltiplos. Para a modelagem das distribuições dos traços latentes de cada grupo, considera-se normais assimétricas centradas. Tal abordagem, além de acomodar a característica de assimetria aos dados, ajuda a garantir a identificabilidade dos modelos estudados, a qual é tratada tanto sob a ótica frequentista quanto bayesiana. Com relação aos métodos de estimação, desenvolveu-se procedimentos bayesianos através de algoritmos de Monte Carlo via cadeias de Markov (MCMC), utilizando o algoritmo de Gibbs (DAGS), com a verossimilhança aumentada (dados aumentados) e Metropolis-Hastings, considerando a verossimilhança original. As implementações computacionais foram escritas em linguagem C++, integradas ao ambiente computacional, gráfico e estatístico R, viabilizando rotinas gratuitas, de código aberto e alta velocidade no processamento, essenciais à difusão de tais metodologias. Para a seleção de modelos, utilizou-se o critério de informação deviance (DIC), os valores esperados do critério de informação de Akaike (EAIC) e o critério de informação bayesiano (EBIC). Em relação à verificação da qualidade do ajuste de modelos, explorou-se a checagem preditiva a posteriori, que fornece meios concretos de se avaliar a qualidade do instrumento de medida (prova, questionário etc), qualidade do ajuste do modelo de um modo global, além de indícios de violações de suposições específicas. Estudos de simulação, considerando diversas situações de interesse prático, indicam que os modelos e métodos de estimação produzem resultados bastante satisfatórios, com superioridade dos modelos assimétricos com relação ao simétrico (o qual assume simetria das distribuições das variáveis latentes). A análise de um conjunto de dados reais, referente à primeira fase do vestibular da UNICAMP de 2013, ilustra o potencial da tríade: modelagem, métodos de estimação e ferramentas de diagnósticos, desenvolvida neste trabalho / Abstract: In this work, we propose new Item Response Theory models for nominal and ordinal (gradual) polytomous responses through augmented data schemes considering multiple groups. For the distribution of the latent traits of each group, we consider a skew-normal distribution under the centered parametrization. This approach will allow for accommodating a possible skewness of the latent trait distribution, but is also helpful to ensure the identifiability of the models, which is studied under frequentist and Bayesian paradigms. Concerning estimation methods, we developed Bayesian methods through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms by using the Gibbs algorithm (DAGS), with augmented likelihood (augmented data) and Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, considering the original likelihood. The computational environment was written in the C++ language and integrated with the R program (a statistical computational and graphical environment), allowing for free, open source and high-speed routines which, in turn, are essential to the dissemination of the developed methodologies. In terms of model selection, we considered the deviance information criterion (DIC), the expected Akaike information criterion (EAIC) and expected Bayesian information criterion (EBIC). Regarding model-fit assessment tools, we explore the posterior predictive model- checking which allows for assessing the quality of measurement, instruments (tests, questionnaires, and others), the model fit in a global sense, besides providing directions toward violations of specific assumptions. Simulation studies, considering different situations of practical interest, indicate that the models and estimation methods produced reasonable results, with outperformance of skew models when compared to symmetric ones (which assumes symmetry of the latent trait distribution). Analysis of a data set which corresponds to the first phase of the 2013 written examination of UNICAMP (State University of Campinas), illustrates the potential of the following triad: modelling; estimation methods; and diagnostic tools developed in this work. / Mestrado / Estatistica / Mestre em Estatística

Testes Adaptativos Computadorizados (TAC) são aqueles que selecionam gradativamente as questões (itens) a serem apresentadas ao indivíduo de acordo com o seu nível de conhecimento (traco latente). Um TAC pode se basear em um modelo da Teoria da Resposta ao Item (TRI) para a estimação do traco latente e escolha do item a ser apresentado em cada passo do teste. Este trabalho apresenta modelos da TRI utilizados em TAC encontrados na literatura e descreve alguns métodos de calibração de itens para a formação e manutenção do banco de questões do teste sob o modelo de Samejima (1969), estimação do traço latente, seleção de itens com restrições utilizando a abordagem Shadow test e critérios de parada normalmente utilizados. Foram realizadas simulações com um banco grande (500 itens) e com um banco pequeno (21 itens) e avaliada a qualidade das estimativas dos traços latente (através do cálculos dos vícios e erros quadráticos médios) de TACs com diferentes números de itens. Foi aplicado o modelo de Samejima às respostas de estudantes do Exame ao proficiência em inglês (EPI) do ICMC - USP, que é aplicado semestralmente no formato lápis e papel, para a formação de um banco de itens e posterior construção de um TAC. Também foi aplicado o modelo às respostas de pacientes clínicos do Hospital das Clínicas da Medicina da USP, cedido pelo doutor Yuang-Pang Wang, ao Inventário de Depressão de Beck (BDI) para os mesmos propósitos. Comparações com a atual metodologia para avaliação da proficiência em língua inglesa do EPI (Medida de Probabilidade Admissível, MPA) e para o diagnóstico de depressão do BDI (critério sugerido por Kendall et al., 1987) foram realizadas demonstrando as vantagens e maior riqueza dos resultados obtidos com a TRI e com os TACs implementados. Adcionalmente foi desenvolvido um programa Same-CAT que armazena bancos de itens e possibilita a criação e aplicação de TACs com restrições, através da abordagem Shadow test / Computerized Adaptive Tests (CAT) are those that select questions (items) gradually to be presented to an individual according to their proficiency (latent trait level). A CAT can be based on an Item Response Theory (IRT) model for estimation of the latent trait and selection of the next item to be presented in each step of the test. This paper presents IRT models used in CATs found in literature and describes some methods of item calibration for creation and maintenance of a test items bank under the Samejima\'s model (Samejima; 1969), estimation of latent trait, item selection with constraints using the Shadow test approach and usuals stopping criteria. Simulations were conducted with a large bank (500 items) and a small bank (21 items) and the quality of the estimatives of latent traits were evaluated (through calculations of mean squared errors and bias) TACs with different item numbers. Samejima\'s model were applied for the responses of students to the English Proficiency Exam (EPE) of ICMC - USP, a test applied twice a year in paper and pencil format, to create an item bank and subsequent construction of a CAT. The model was also applied to the responses of clinical patients from the Hospital das Clnicas - USP, given by Dr. Yuang-Pang Wang, to the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) for the same purposes. Comparisons using the current methodology to evaluate the English Language Proficiency of EPE (Measure of Probability Allowable, MPA) and the BDI (criterion suggested by Kendall et al., 1987) were performed, and the CATs provided better and richer results. Furthermore a program, Same-CAT, that stores item banks and allows CAT\'s applications with constraints was created

Some basic but desirable employability skills are antecedents of job performance. The Workplace Skills Survey (WSS) is a 48-item situational judgment test (SJT) used to assess non-technical workplace skills for both entry-level and experienced workers. Unfortunately, the psychometric evidence for use of its scores is far from adequate. The purpose of current study was two-fold: (a) to examine the proposed structure of WSS scores using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and (b) to explore the WSS item functioning and performance using item response theory (IRT). A sample of 1,018 Jamaican unattached youth completed the WSS instrument as part of a longitudinal study on the efficacy of a youth development program in Jamaica. Three CFA models were tested for the construct validity of WSS scores. Parameter estimations of item difficulty, item discrimination, and examinee’s proficiency estimations were obtained with item response theory (IRT) and plotted in item characteristics curves (ICCs) and item information curves (IICs). Results showed that the WSS performed quite well as a whole and provided precise measurement especially for respondents at latent trait levels of -0.5 and +1.5. However, some modifications of some items were recommended. CFA analyses showed supportive evidence of the one-factor construct model, while the six-factor model and higher-order model were not achieved. Several directions for future research are suggested.

The purpose of this investigation was to determine the influence of item response theory and different types of judges on a standard. The iterative Angoff standard setting method was employed by all judges to determine a cut-off score for a public school district-wide criterion-reformed test. The analysis of variance of the effect of judge type and standard setting method on the central tendency of the standard revealed the existence of an ordinal interaction between judge type and method. Without any knowledge of p-values, one judge group set an unrealistic standard. A significant disordinal interaction was found concerning the effect of judge type and standard setting method on the variance of the standard. A positive covariance was detected between judges' minimum pass level estimates and empirical item information. With both p-values and b-values, judge groups had mean minimum pass levels that were positively correlated (ranging from .77 to .86), regardless of the type of information given to the judges. No differences in correlations were detected between different judge types or different methods. The generalizability coefficients and phi indices for 12 judges included in any method or judge type were acceptable (ranging from .77 to .99). The generalizability coefficient and phi index for all 24 judges were quite high (.99 and .96, respectively).

In der hier vorliegenden Arbeit wurde die Validität von Aufmerksamkeits- und Konzentrationstests untersucht. Im Vordergrund stand dabei die Frage nach dem Einfluss verschiedener kritischer Variablen auf die prädiktive Validität in diesen Tests, insbesondere der Itemschwierigkeit und Itemhomogenität, der Testlänge bzw. des Testverlaufs, der Testdiversifikation und der Validität im Kontext einer echten Personalauslese. In insgesamt fünf Studien wurden die genannten Variablen systematisch variiert und auf ihre prädiktive Validität zur (retrograden und konkurrenten) Vorhersage von schulischen und akademischen Leistungen (Realschule, Abitur, Vordiplom/Bachelor) hin analysiert. Aufgrund der studentischen (d. h. relativ leistungshomogenen) Stichprobe bestand die Erwartung, dass die Korrelationen etwas unterschätzt werden. Da die Validität in dieser Arbeit jedoch „vergleichend“ für bestimmte Tests bzw. experimentelle Bedingungen bestimmt wurde, sollte dies keine Rolle spielen. In Studie 1 (N = 106) wurde zunächst untersucht, wie schwierig die Items in einem Rechenkonzentrationstest sein sollten, um gute Vorhersagen zu gewährleisten. Dazu wurden leichte und schwierigere Items vergleichend auf ihre Korrelation zum Kriterium hin untersucht. Im Ergebnis waren sowohl leichte als auch schwierigere Testvarianten ungefähr gleich prädiktiv. In Studie 2 (N = 103) wurde die Rolle der Testlänge untersucht, wobei die prädiktive Validität von Kurzversion und Langversion in einem Rechenkonzentrationstest vergleichend untersucht wurde. Im Ergebnis zeigte sich, dass die Kurzversion valider war als die Langversion und dass die Validität in der Langversion im Verlauf abnimmt. In Studie 3 (N = 388) stand der Aspekt der Testdiversifikation im Vordergrund, wobei untersucht wurde, ob Intelligenz besser mit einem einzelnen Matrizentest (Wiener Matrizen-Test, WMT) oder mit einer Testbatterie (Intelligenz-Struktur-Test, I-S-T 2000 R) erfasst werden sollte, um gute prädiktive Validität zu gewährleisten. Die Ergebnisse sprechen klar für den Matrizentest, welcher ungefähr gleich valide war wie die Testbatterie, aber dafür testökonomischer ist. In den Studien 4 (N = 105) und 5 (N =97) wurde die prädiktive Validität zur Vorhersage von Schulleistungen im Kontext einer realen Personalauswahlsituation untersucht. Während die großen Testbatterien, Wilde-Intelligenz-Test 2 (WIT-2) und Intelligenz-Struktur-Test 2000R (I-S-T 2000 R), nur mäßig gut vorhersagen konnten, war der Komplexe Konzentrationstest (KKT), insbesondere der KKT-Rechentest ein hervorragender Prädiktor für schulische und akademische Leistungen. Auf Basis dieser Befunde wurden schließlich Empfehlungen und Anwendungshilfen für den strategischen Einsatz von Testinstrumenten in der diagnostischen Berufspraxis ausgesprochen.:1 Einführung und Ziele 2 Diagnostik von Konzentrationsfähigkeit 2.1 Historische Einordnung 2.2 Kognitive Modellierung 2.3 Psychometrische Modellierung 3 Prädiktive Validität von Konzentrationstests 3.1 Reliabilität, Konstruktvalidität, Kriterienvalidität 3.2 Konstruktions- und Validierungsstrategien 3.3 Ableitung der Fragestellung 4 Beschreibung der Fragebögen und Tests 5 Empirischer Teil 5.1 Studie 1 - Itemschwierigkeit 5.1.1 Methode 5.1.2 Ergebnisse 5.1.3 Diskussion 5.2 Studie 2 - Testverlängerung und Testverlauf 5.2.1 Methode 5.2.2 Ergebnisse 5.2.3 Diskussion 5.3 Studie 3 - Testdiversifikation 5.3.1 Methode 5.3.2 Ergebnisse 5.3.3 Diskussion 5.4 Studie 4 - Validität in realer Auswahlsituation (I-S-T 2000 R) 5.4.1 Methode 5.4.2 Ergebnisse 5.4.3 Diskussion 5.5 Studie 5 - Validität in realer Auswahlsituation (WIT-2) 5.5.1 Methode 5.5.2 Ergebnisse 5.5.3 Diskussion 6 Diskussion 128 6.1 Sind schwierige Tests besser als leichte Tests? 6.2 Sind lange Tests besser als kurze Tests? 6.3 Sind Testbatterien besser als Einzeltests? 6.4 Sind Tests auch unter „realen“ Bedingungen valide? 6.5 Validität unter realen Bedingungen - Generalisierung 7 Theoretische Implikationen 8 Praktische Konsequenzen 9 Literaturverzeichnis Anhang

Objective: Efficient identification and referral to behavioral services are crucial in addressing early-onset disruptive behavior problems. Existing screening instruments for preschoolers are not ideal for pediatric primary care settings serving diverse populations. Eighteen candidate items for a new brief screening instrument were examined to identify those exhibiting measurement bias (i.e., differential item functioning, DIF) by child characteristics. Method: Parents/guardians of preschool-aged children (N = 900) from four primary care settings completed two full-length behavioral rating scales. Items measuring disruptive behavior problems were tested for DIF by child race, sex, and socioeconomic status using two approaches: item response theory-based likelihood ratio tests and ordinal logistic regression. Results: Of 18 items, eight were identified with statistically significant DIF by at least one method. Conclusions: The bias observed in 8 of 18 items made them undesirable for screening diverse populations of children. These items were excluded from the new brief screening tool.

Both active response execution and passive listening to verbal codes (a form of instruction) in single prime trials lead tovitem-specific repetition priming effects when stimuli re-occur in single probe trials. This holds for task-specific classification (stimulus–classification, SC priming, e.g., apple–small) and action (stimulus–action, SA priming, e.g., apple–right key press). To address the influence of expectation on item-specific SC and SA associations, we tested if item-specific SC and SA priming effects were modulated by the instructed probability of re-encountering individual SC or SA mappings (25% vs. 75% instructed switch probability). Importantly, the experienced item-specific switch probability was always 50%. In Experiment 1 (N = 78), item-specific SA/SC switch expectations affected SA, but not SC priming effects exclusively following active response execution. Experiment 2 (N = 40) was designed to emphasize SA priming by only including item-specific SC repetitions. This yielded stronger SA priming for 25% vs. 75% expected switch probability, both following response execution as in Experiment 1 and also following verbally coded SA associations. Together, these results suggest that SA priming effects, that is, the encoding and retrieval of SA associations, is modulated by item-specific switch expectation. Importantly, this expectation effect cannot be explained by item-specific associative learning mechanisms, as stimuli were primed and probed only once and participants experienced item-specific repetitions/switches equally often across stimuli independent of instructed switch probabilities. This corroborates and extends previous results by showing that SA priming effects are modulated by expectation not only based on experienced item-specific switch probabilities, but also on mere instruction.

No description available.