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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
31

Philippine international tourism and the role of marketing communications

Miles, Peter Harry January 2001 (has links)
No description available.
32

A mixed method investigation into the psychological well-being of individuals who have suffered from Guillain-Barré Syndrome

Harrison, Catherine Victoria January 2010 (has links)
The needs of patients who are nursed on the ICU are becoming more widely recognised and services are beginning to reflect this. However there is little research into how patients who have suffered from a severe and progressive muscular paralysis called Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) experience the disease and subsequent hospitalisation. The purpose of this study was to explore how these patients experience the different aspects of the illness, including an extended period of paralysis and treatment on an ICU. This is intended to expand upon the limited research in this area and identify how the findings can inform clinical practice and future studies. Method: A systematic literature search identified research in relation to the experiences of individuals who had GBS which was utilised to form the basis of the understanding for this study. Very little systematic research has looked at individuals‟ experiences of Guillain-Barré Syndrome whilst ill and their subsequent recovery. A mixed methods study was carried out with the aim of adding to this research. Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was selected as the method of analysis for Study 1, which involved interviews with seven participants who had experienced GBS severe enough to need treatment on an ICU. This then enabled quantitative questionnaires to be disseminated which asked about individuals‟ levels of anxiety, depression and Post Traumatic Stress symptomatology both retrospectively and following recovery in Study 2. Results: Study1 found that participants experienced GBS as either a slow and frustrating, or as a rapid and scary onset. The main themes that were developed included: the paralysis being viewed as multiple losses, frustration, difficulties associated with communication loss, vulnerability and frightening hallucinations. Study 2 utilised non-parametric analyses of the data and found that participants experienced high levels of anxiety and depression at the onset of GBS and that some continued to experience anxiety, depression and post traumatic symptoms after recovery from GBS. Generally the profile suggests predominantly anxiety problems during the acute onset phase and then predominantly depression at the time of follow-up. Aspects of post traumatic stress were positively correlated with duration of mechanical ventilation which in turn was related to duration of paralysis. This challenged the hypothesis that GBS patients habituate to the experience of paralysis. Conclusion: For some individuals, GBS was experienced as a frightening event, but one that they could draw positive things from. However, for others, GBS was experienced as a traumatic event and some of these people continued to exhibit signs of psychological distress even after recovery. It remains important for staff to feel able to speak about distressing situations with their patients and to signpost them to other psychological services if appropriate.
33

A study of the operation of Nigeria Airways Corporation, and the implications for the implementation of total quality management

Oriaku, Ngozi 01 December 1996 (has links)
In recent years, attempts to find solutions to business and social problems of developing nations have dominated the interest of developmental researchers. This study, in effect, has taken the same approach to finding the problems and solutions to the case of Nigeria Airways Corporation. The study is significant because it analyzed the organizational structure and operation of Nigeria Airways Corporation, with the view of developing a model for implementing TQM. In addition, some specific variables were investigated. The variables were: (1) management commitment, (2) employee involvement in the decision-making process, (3) customer input, (4) continuous improvement, and (5) organizational effectiveness. With the variables of choice, the study was designed and questionnaires were administered to random samples selected from top-level management, middle-level management, lower-level management, and the general public. After collecting the responses, statistical tests such as statistical percentage frequencies, mean analysis, an analysis of variance (ANOVA}, and Scheffe tests which compare the level of significance as specified in the hypotheses, with .05 level of significance were performed. The findings showed statistical differences among the different levels of management, the non-management employees, as well as the general public. The differences were in the organizational structure and operation, decision-making process, and provisions for customer inputs in Nigeria Airways Corporation. The study showed that the adapted model of Total Quality Management is a relevant tool that might remedy the poor performance of the airline. The study recommends the total reorganization of the structure and operation of the airline with a total view of implementing an adapted TQM.
34

Minority consumption, savings, and investing analysis: consequences and implications.

Harper, Gabriel Duvall Jordan January 1900 (has links)
Master of Arts / Department of Economics / William F. Blankenau / The aim of this paper is to provide an analysis of the consumption, investing, and savings data across racial minority categories within the United States. This paper examines the three biggest minority racial categories within the United States. These three racial categories include Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics. Consumption patterns across minority groups are examined in Chapter 2. These patterns give insights into the annual purchasing decisions of Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics. Many of the choices in budget allocation to specific categories have consequences and implications that are explained at the end of this chapter. Chapter 3 focuses on savings characteristics of minority populations in the United States. 401k plans, IRAs, and other retirement plans are examined for different savings behaviors and rates across minority groups. This paper examines the savings attitudes and survey responses of participants to get a feel of the overall savings climate across racial groups. Chapter 4 examines the investment behaviors and attitudes of different minorities. The financial risk tolerance and portfolio composition of different minority groups are examined to gain insights into the large wealth gap between Whites and minorities in the United States. In addition, this paper examines the hypothesized reasons for the differences between racial categories in consumption, investing, and saving choices. In Chapter 5, I explore the different theories and assumptions presented in the literature on these topics in order to give the reader insight into why racial groups might make different consumption, investment, and savings decisions even when controlling for socioeconomic variables. The final chapter explains the consequences of consumption, investment, and savings decisions for the individual, the community, and the United States.
35

Impact of Internet of Things on Urban Mobility

Vaidian, Iulia, Azmat, Muhammad, Kummer, Sebastian 07 1900 (has links) (PDF)
The urban population is predicted to increase to 66% by 2050. The rapid growth of urbanization and increasing congestion are significant challenges faced by the world today. Innovative solutions in urban mobility are key for a successful development and a sustainable future. The new paradigm, Internet of Things (IoT), facilitates the need for new approaches in urban transportation, leading to a modern concept: Smart Mobility. The boom of technology and innovation from recent years allowed a great expansion of IoT. Furthermore, the number of smart devices that communicate, cooperate and complement each other, grows rapidly in every domain broadening the scope of IoT applications. This paper sets to discuss the impact that IoT might have on urban mobility, mentioning its implications, challenges and technical solutions. It further reviews the advancements made in the transport infrastructure along the years that support the emergence of Smart Mobility. Three main research questions stay at the forefront of this paper which are drafted in pursuit of the solutions for the problems and challenges currently faced by urban transportation. Which leads to a sustainable future with efficient and effective urban transportation system. The paper uses a mix-method approach, using on one hand qualitative research for literature review (State of the field) and on the other hand quantitative research to assess public opinion on the research topic, through an online questionnaire. To answer the research questions with proper arguments, both research methods were necessary, which lead to optimal results. The results of the questionnaire were interpreted based on Spearman's correlation and descriptive statistical analysis. They brought an in-depth view on the public opinion regarding IoT and the developments enabled by this paradigm within the urban mobility sphere. The output of the questionnaire highlights the eagerness of participants usually stuck in traffic to see innovation within urban mobility. Over all the results based on the opinions suggest that the public strongly believes in the Internet of Thing's applications and its adaptation will benefit the urban transportation system. Furthermore, new developments in the urban mobility sphere will be largely embraced.
36

Implicações psicossociais da realização da faringoplastia em indivíduos com fissura labiopalatina. / Psychosocial implications of the pharyngoplasty accomplishment in individuals with cleft lip and/or palate.

Marques, Luciana Corrêa 22 October 2004 (has links)
Objetivo: Verificar a influência da realização da faringoplastia nos aspectos psicossociais dos indivíduos com fissura labiopalatina. Local: setor de Psicologia do HRAC/USP. Participantes: 13 pacientes, de ambos os gêneros, com idades a partir de 15 anos, com indicação cirúrgica para a faringoplastia Material: Entrevistas Psicológicas Pré e Pós-Cirúrgicas e o Inventário de Habilidades Sociais (IHS - Del Prette 2001) Procedimento: O paciente foi convidado a participar do estudo, respondendo a Entrevista Psicológica Pré-Cirúrgica e o Inventário de Habilidades Sociais. Transcorrido o período de três meses a um ano após a realização da cirurgia, o mesmo paciente respondeu à Entrevista Psicológica Pós-Cirúrgica e novamente ao Inventário de Habilidades Sociais. Resultados: Após a realização da cirurgia, a freqüência em fonoterapia aumentou e houve melhora na ressonância e inteligibilidade da fala. A avaliação da fala foi mais positiva e a melhora da fala com a realização da faringoplastia interferiu de forma positiva sobre os aspectos psicossociais. Os pacientes tinham conhecimento sobre a cirurgia e sabiam para que ela servia, deixando a decisão de sua realização para o profissional do hospital. A expectativa foi de melhora da fala e foi verificado um alto índice de satisfação com o resultado da cirurgia. Os pacientes relataram mais melhoras no aspecto pessoal e profissional e colocaram o surgimento de complicações respiratórias. As habilidades sociais relativas ao escore total melhoraram. Conclusão: A faringoplastia tem influência positiva sobre os aspectos psicossociais de indivíduos com fissura labiopalatina. / Objective: To verify the influence of the pharyngoplasty accomplishment in the psychosocial aspects of the individuals with cleft lip and/or palate. Place: Psychology sector of the HRAC/USP Participants: 13 patients, of both sex, with ages from 15 years or older, surgical indication for the haryngoplasty. Material: Psychological Interviews Before and After Surgery and the Inventory of Social Skills (IHS - Del Prette 2001). Procedure: The patient was invited to participate of the study, answering the Psychological Interview Before Surgery and the Inventory of Social Skills. After a period of three months to one year post surgery, the same patient answered to the Psychological Interview After Surgery and again to the Inventory of Social Skills. Results: After the surgery, the frequency in phonotherapy increased and had improvement of the speech resonance and intelligibility. The speech evaluation was more positive and the speech improvement with the pharyngoplasty accomplishment intervened on a positive way of the psychosocial aspects. The patients had knowledge on the surgery and knew that it was usefull, leaving the decision of its accomplishment for the hospital professional. The expectation was of the improvement of speech it was verified a high index of satisfaction with the surgery result. The patients had told more improvements in the personal and professional aspects and also related the appearance of respiratory complications. The social skills relating to the total score had improved. Conclusion: The pharyngoplasty has positive influence on the psychosocial aspects of individuals with cleft lip and/or palate.
37

Implicações psicossociais da realização da faringoplastia em indivíduos com fissura labiopalatina. / Psychosocial implications of the pharyngoplasty accomplishment in individuals with cleft lip and/or palate.

Luciana Corrêa Marques 22 October 2004 (has links)
Objetivo: Verificar a influência da realização da faringoplastia nos aspectos psicossociais dos indivíduos com fissura labiopalatina. Local: setor de Psicologia do HRAC/USP. Participantes: 13 pacientes, de ambos os gêneros, com idades a partir de 15 anos, com indicação cirúrgica para a faringoplastia Material: Entrevistas Psicológicas Pré e Pós-Cirúrgicas e o Inventário de Habilidades Sociais (IHS - Del Prette 2001) Procedimento: O paciente foi convidado a participar do estudo, respondendo a Entrevista Psicológica Pré-Cirúrgica e o Inventário de Habilidades Sociais. Transcorrido o período de três meses a um ano após a realização da cirurgia, o mesmo paciente respondeu à Entrevista Psicológica Pós-Cirúrgica e novamente ao Inventário de Habilidades Sociais. Resultados: Após a realização da cirurgia, a freqüência em fonoterapia aumentou e houve melhora na ressonância e inteligibilidade da fala. A avaliação da fala foi mais positiva e a melhora da fala com a realização da faringoplastia interferiu de forma positiva sobre os aspectos psicossociais. Os pacientes tinham conhecimento sobre a cirurgia e sabiam para que ela servia, deixando a decisão de sua realização para o profissional do hospital. A expectativa foi de melhora da fala e foi verificado um alto índice de satisfação com o resultado da cirurgia. Os pacientes relataram mais melhoras no aspecto pessoal e profissional e colocaram o surgimento de complicações respiratórias. As habilidades sociais relativas ao escore total melhoraram. Conclusão: A faringoplastia tem influência positiva sobre os aspectos psicossociais de indivíduos com fissura labiopalatina. / Objective: To verify the influence of the pharyngoplasty accomplishment in the psychosocial aspects of the individuals with cleft lip and/or palate. Place: Psychology sector of the HRAC/USP Participants: 13 patients, of both sex, with ages from 15 years or older, surgical indication for the haryngoplasty. Material: Psychological Interviews Before and After Surgery and the Inventory of Social Skills (IHS - Del Prette 2001). Procedure: The patient was invited to participate of the study, answering the Psychological Interview Before Surgery and the Inventory of Social Skills. After a period of three months to one year post surgery, the same patient answered to the Psychological Interview After Surgery and again to the Inventory of Social Skills. Results: After the surgery, the frequency in phonotherapy increased and had improvement of the speech resonance and intelligibility. The speech evaluation was more positive and the speech improvement with the pharyngoplasty accomplishment intervened on a positive way of the psychosocial aspects. The patients had knowledge on the surgery and knew that it was usefull, leaving the decision of its accomplishment for the hospital professional. The expectation was of the improvement of speech it was verified a high index of satisfaction with the surgery result. The patients had told more improvements in the personal and professional aspects and also related the appearance of respiratory complications. The social skills relating to the total score had improved. Conclusion: The pharyngoplasty has positive influence on the psychosocial aspects of individuals with cleft lip and/or palate.
38

Exchange Rate Stability and its Implications for Economic Development of the Less Developed Countries

Gowon, Chileshe Hilda Wabo 01 May 1985 (has links)
The question that Less Developed Countries have faced since the advent of floating exchange rates among the Industrial Countries is whether they should also adopt a floating exchange rate system. The Less Developed Countries have opted for a pegged exchange rate system, since their economic characteristics and institutional structure indicate that floating for the Less Developed Countries would result in volatile or unstable exchange rates. Since Less Developed Countries peg t heir exchange rates in the presence of flexible rates among industrial countries, the Less Developed Countries pegged exchange rates move in accordance to the exchange rates to which they are pegged. This study examines whether there are differences in the variability of the different effective exchange rate indices or currency baskets. Specifically the export, import and total trade weighted effective exchange rates for three African Less Developed Countries are examined. Currency baskets are varied by changing the number of currencies coefficent of variation included in was used the basket. The to compare the variability in the different effective exchange rates.
39

Konsekvenser av bristande kvalitet i registerkartans gränsredovisning i skogsmark

Ekberg, Mattias, Jansson, David January 2012 (has links)
Kvalitetsbristerna i registerkartan är ett välkänt problem och Lantmäteriet arbetar ständigt för att uppdatera kartan och hitta en lösning på detta problem som är ekonomiskt försvarbar. Trots detta arbete så är bristerna stora på många håll, speciellt på landsbygden och inom skogsmark. Denna rapport behandlar konsekvenserna av registerkartans gränsredovisning i skogsmark. Arbetet har skett genom en fältstudie där två fastigheters utmärkta gränser kontrollmättes mot registerkartans angivna gränser. En beräkning av det teorietiska skogsvärdet som hamnar i gränszonen mellan registerkartans gräns och den på marken utmärkta gränsen.  En schablonmässig beräkning bedömt på hela Sveriges årliga avverkningsareal som ligger inom den gränszon som påverkas av registerkartans brister har gjorts och värdet av virkesvolymerna inom detta gränsland har beräknats. En Litteraturstudie har genomförts på den litteratur som berör ämnet. Enkätundersökningar till sakkunniga inom skogsnäringen och samtal med andra sakkunniga personer har skett för att få en inblick i hur registerkartans brister påverkar. Skogsnäringen vill inte se detta som ett stort problem som påverkar deras arbete. Även fast fel uppstår p.g.a. brister i deras kartmaterial och utrustning. De vill hellre peka på att gränserna många gånger är för dåligt underhållna av fastighetsägarna och att lantmäteriets prissättning gör att man hellre riskerar att göra fel än att få gränsen bestämd.
40

Russia-China MIlitary Arms Trade

Vitaly, Vasilev 04 August 2008 (has links)
To observers who are not indifferent toward Russia, the trend of Russia¡¦s foreign policy clearly is disquieting, if not alarming. The titanic efforts made by the Russian ruling establishment to enter the mighty G-7 club appear now to be a waste of time and energy. Feeling itself a stranger within the G-8, Russia seems to be trying to establish an international club (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) of its own with it at the head it (China-Russia military exercise in Central Asia) . There is nothing reprehensible in any country¡¦s quest to normalize relations with its neighbors and from that point of view Mikhail Gorbachev¡¦s visit to China in 1989, this was a good start in the process of burying the past thirty years of open confrontation between the two countries. The hostility between the two nations saw, time and time again, armed border clashes and skirmishes. Boris Yeltsin¡¦s government willingly took the baton from his predecessor but carried it in an unlikely direction. In 1992, Russian opened the flow of military hardware and know-how to China by selling 24 fighters Su-27s. 2 At that time, Russia did not appear to harbor any thoughts of China as a potential ally and regarded the giant neighbor as a very solvent buyer of its armaments ¡V mainly of old Soviet surpluses rather than really new material. However, China soon made it clear that it wanted only first-rate merchandise, and proved to be a tough negotiator and shrewd buyer. 3 Historically, military contracts between Russia and China were implemented on the basic of more or less special agreements and could not be viewed as part of a larger political strategy although Boris Yeltsin¡¦s proactive diplomacy toward China (armed largely at counterbalancing ¡§NATO¡¦s move eastward¡¨) created a fertile field for what followed in the early 2000s. Trade was driven, on the Chinese side, by China¡¦s willingness to acquire quite sophisticated weapons at a very reasonable price and by Russia¡¦s willingness to sell anything to anybody just to keep the production lines going and to convince its highly-qualified specialists to stay put. Despite friendly rhetoric from both sides and the rather hefty military sales by Russia, immediate military cooperation was not on the agenda at that time. The whole picture of bilateral ties between Moscow and Beijing began changing with Putin¡¦s rise. Naturally, along the path to the revival of Russia¡¦s past ¡§greatness¡¨ Putin chose a very definite company of fellow travelers and staked his presidency on an eventual estrangement from the West. The turning point in Chinese-Russian relations came on July 16, 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese counterpart Jiang Zemin, aspiring to forge a ``new international order' and offset U.S. influence, signed the first post-Soviet friendship Treaty for Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, between the two nations, cementing their decade-long partnership which opened the way to increase arms deliveries. Jiang said after the signing ceremony in the Kremlin, that ¡§it was a milestone in the development of Russia-Chinese relations.' 4 The document comes at a time when the two giant countries were expressing mounting concern over American national missile defense plans and trying to attract more nations into their own orbit. In a joint statement, Putin and Jiang said ¡§they were hoping for a just and rational new international order' to reflect their concept of a multipolar' world led by the United Nations, rather than Washington.¡¨ 5 Yet the treaty between Russia and China made it clear that the two countries had no immediate plans to form a closer alliance. The treaty was the first such document since 1950 when Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong created a Soviet-Chinese alliance that later soured into a bitter rivalry by the 1960s. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Moscow and Beijing have put their disputes behind them and forged what they call a ¡§strategic partnership¡¨. This agreement opens the door to broad Sino-Russian cooperation with joint actions to offset long disputed border issues. Some Russian scholars have voiced concern about Chinese migrants overrunning Russia's sparsely populated Far Eastern and Siberian regions bordering on China.6 When China and the Soviet Union were rivals, China raised territorial claims against Russia. Waves of Chinese migrants have settled there since the Soviet collapse and both Putin and Jiang have stated that the Russian-Chinese border from now on will become a border of ¡§eternal peace' and pledged that the two sides will jointly resolve ¡§the questions left by history.' 7 Official assurances by both parties that the Russia ¡V China military treaty is not being directed against any third country, the agreement stops just short of being a military alliance. In official statements, the two sides stressed that they still viewed the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty as the ¡§cornerstone of strategic stability' which must be preserved. The two neighbors have also called for international talks that could curb missile proliferation and make space weapons free. Both Russia and China warn that a proposed American missile shield defense would upset the strategic balance and trigger a new global arms race. China's concerns are potentially even stronger; because its nuclear arsenal is tiny compared to Russia's and even a limited missile defense could erode its deterrent value. Russia and China say their ¡§partnership' is not aimed against the United States and according to Chinese officials, the new friendship treaty does not contain any secret articles like the military alliance between Stalin and Mao.8 China has bought billions of dollars worth of Russian jets, submarines, missiles and destroyers during the 1990s, becoming the biggest customer for Russia's ailing military industrial complex. Military analysts say Russia is in a position to help Beijing speed its military building by providing even more sophisticated weaponry. Joint statements by both governments focus at length on future cooperation in the sphere of advanced technologies, space exploration and industries including electronics, telecommunications and nuclear energy production and called for Chinese companies to invest in Russia.9 A careful examination of this treaty leaders to the striking, but obvious conclusion that never during its post-Soviet history has Russia taken such an openly anti-American step.10 Nearly five years after the military agreement was signed by Russia and China, the results of the treaty (as well as preceding and subsequent agreement) are impressive. Since 1992, military sales by Russia to China have reached at least $20 billion. 11 Russia has managed to sell China enough military hardware to arm a medium-sized European country and 12 (ref. 4) most of these weapons are obviously directed against a rebellious island province ¡V Taiwan.13 Likewise of concern for Taiwanese leaders as well as China¡¦s other neighbors were the Russian-Chinese military exercises carried out in August 2005 ¡V the first time in more than 40 years.14 The scale of the event was considerable; it encompassed 10, 000 military personnel as well as approximately 70 ships and submarines. While the Chinese participated mainly with personnel (around 8 000) and sea vessels (some 60 ships and submarines), the main contributions from the Russian side were advanced air assets, such as 2 Tu-95MS Bear strategic bombers, 4 Tu-22M3 Backfire long-range bombers, Su-24M2 Fencer bombers, Su-27SM Flanker fighters, 10 IL-76 Candid transport aircraft, an A-50 Mainstay air warning command and control aircraft, and an Il-78 Midas air tanker.15 The public objective of the maneuvers was coordinating in the fight against international terrorism, but few missed the real implications for conventional warfare: Anti-terrorist military actions do not require the use of the strategic bombers and large scale amphibious operations. One may only surmise who proposed the scenario but the message sent by the exercise seemed clear enough: The Asian-Pacific region is a domain of Russia and China, and no one else should challenge their influence in the region. It is possible that only one of the participants, Russia, wanted to send this message to the rest of the world and China, quite possibly, views this partnership in the Pacific as temporary and likely is playing its own game. Russia should be aware that the eventual loser can be the one who deals its partner the winning cards. According China¡¦s nowadays strategy, China would like to enjoy and use all advantages of the USA-unipolar world if it restricts Russia¡¦s international interests and it is not opposite to China¡¦s interests. According Chinese resources China does not consider Russia as a strategic partner, China has interest in modernization of own military capabilities, but not to form the full-pledge alliance and even restrict USA¡¦s international policy.16 China had become a major political factor in the world long before Deng Xiaoping set the country on the path of economic reforms that now have transformed China into second largest economy on the planet (measured by Purchasing Power Parity, or PPP).17 In the 1960¡¦s, China¡¦s joining the world nuclear club greatly boosted China¡¦s influence on the world affairs as a whole, and its authority in the Third World in particular. For the past decade, China has demonstrated a 10 % annual economic growth, a pace that requires more and more energy resources. At present, China is the second largest consumer and the second largest importer of oil and is desperately seeking new sources of energy.18 The armed forces of China are a far cry from the vast formation of under trained men of the 1970s who were armed with poor copies of Soviet AK-47 assault rifles and flying inadequate copies of old Soviet airplanes. Today the nation of China has absorbed the People¡¦s Liberation Army (PLA), with 2.5 million men. In addition, China has close to 5, 000 aircraft, and up to 2, 700 warships (not to mention hundreds of strategic and tactical nuclear missiles) ¡V represents quite a formidable force. 19 Accordingly, the almost unanimous opinion of military experts believe that by 2025 or earlier, China will have all the necessary battle capabilities for invading Taiwan. Even now, China¡¦s front line aviation has 400 fourth generation modern combat planes ¡V more than Russia does.20 Still, theoretical capabilities and the ability to launch an aggressive planned assault are altogether different. The latter enterprise implies and requires firm determination and political will. Does the Chinese leadership posses that kind of will and determination? If China were a democratic country, then the answer definitely would be no. China, however, is not a democracy. It is a totalitarian, and to some, a fascist state21 with little regard for human life (as evidenced by the Tiananmen Square Massacre in June 1989). So, the answer is yes: China will attack Taiwan as soon as it feels prepared; not only to break Taiwanese resistance but to oppose, successfully, American forces as well. With few doubts regarding the future of Taiwan a question arises whether Russia should beware of China¡¦s intentions as well. The answer may depend on two aspects: the first of them is, if China sees something across its northern border that might be worth resorting to force in dealings with its neighbor; and the second, if Russia would be able to curb any dangerous impulse from the south. It is common knowledge that the natural resources of Siberia and the Russian Far East are enormous and diverse. To get protracted access to those riches at reasonable prices would be a coup for any serious aspirant and it might be easier to obtain the permanent possession of these resources by means short of military force. The hard reality for the world and especially for China¡¦s neighbors is that, with a current rate of growth that very likely will remain at 8-10% in the foreseeable future, the increasing demands of the economy and enhanced military muscle, Beijing might try its fortune in the North. It is true that the border disputes between China and Russia have been settled, presumably amicably. However, there are a few realities that have to be taken into consideration. One issue is the belief in fairly important circles within China that in its modern history, China was robbed of 5 million sq. km of territory. For Russians, the worst part of this historical lesson, as it is written in Chinese school textbooks, is that Russia is alleged to have seized these Chinese lands (Primorskiy Krai and Sakhalin Island), and in place of today¡¦s Russian cities of Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk in the past they were the Chinese cities of Haishenway, Boli and Hailenbao.22 Another concern is with demography. The Russian Far East is one of the least inhabited regions of the country with only 6.7 million people living there. At the same time three adjoining Chinese provinces are crowded with about 120 million inhabitants.23 Illegal migrations of Chinese across the Russian border, a problem rooted deeply from the 19th century, have grown into a fairly large modern problem for Russian authorities. Estimates on the total Chinese Diaspora in Russia vary greatly, from an overly optimistic official 40,000 to a xenophobic figure of 10 million.24 However, it is safe to say that the Russian territories in question have at least 1 million Chinese. This number shows a clear growing trend due to a variety of factors including expedited procedures of entry into Russia for Chinese citizens, many of whom choose to settle in Russia. It would be preposterous and a great overreaction to view all those re-settlers as a "fifth column," but this demographic situation could be used by the Chinese military to its advantage. As for Russia's ability to oppose a future advance by China, it has to be seen as questionable at best. For the past decade, the formidable rate of economic growth has been driving up Chinese defense expenditures. Estimated at around 90 billion dollars for the year 2005, they are expected to reach a figure of something between $120 billion and $150 billion in 2015 and from $225 billion to $325 billion in 2025.25 Russia has the tenth largest economy in the world (by PPP), with economic growth (5.9% in 2005) that lags far behind China and a probable total military spending of slightly over $30 billion in 2005. The best possible illustration of these trends consists of the statistics of production and distribution of Russian armaments in 1992-99 (the figures for 2000-2006 are most likely better), while the Russian Air Force received 7 aircraft during this period, 278 were sold abroad (101 went to China). The Russian Land Forces obtained 31 tanks whereas foreign clients received 435 (China received 140). And so on and so forth for all major weapons systems.26 The picture might not look so bleak if Russia held a decisive technological edge over China. However, even the most sophisticated combat assets that Russia currently has (although superior to Chinese assets) produced during the Soviet era when the military-industrial establishment was fully supported by the state. Now, Russia cannot afford to be a leader in all spheres of military research and development. However wide the gap that exists between Chinese and Russian military know-how, it is now only a matter of time before China catches up and perhaps even surpasses Russian development and production. China's willingness and ability both to bargain and to employ "total intelligence" to obtain advanced technologies in the West also provides a significant edge.27 Taking all these factors into consideration, Russia appears to have chosen the wrong priority of reanimating it¡¦s mourned over past greatness by means of allying itself with a probable adversary. This decision is apparently prompted by a psychological tradition of hurt national pride and what can be formulated as 'civilization preferences' (which is the feeling among Russian leaders). In a decade or two the newly-found friendship with Russia's southern neighbor might take such a twisted turn that Russia will have to think more about survival as a sovereign entity than nurturing its great power status ambitions.

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