Securities legislation in Canada and around the world does not mandate firms to fulfill announced share repurchase programs. As such, a firms repurchase program completion rate can be interpreted as a measure of the firms voluntary compliance, which communicates to investors the degree to which the firm is responsible, reliable and makes good faith efforts to fulfill its announced programs. We therefore expect that the voluntary compliance may reduce the riskiness of a firm and thus its cost of capital. In a sample of Canadian repurchase programs announced between 1995 and 2004, surprisingly, we find little evidence to suggest that a significant relationship exists between the firms repurchase program completion rate and the cost of equity. We present a number of explanations for this result.

Securities legislation in Canada and around the world does not mandate firms to fulfill announced share repurchase programs. As such, a firms repurchase program completion rate can be interpreted as a measure of the firms voluntary compliance, which communicates to investors the degree to which the firm is responsible, reliable and makes good faith efforts to fulfill its announced programs. We therefore expect that the voluntary compliance may reduce the riskiness of a firm and thus its cost of capital. In a sample of Canadian repurchase programs announced between 1995 and 2004, surprisingly, we find little evidence to suggest that a significant relationship exists between the firms repurchase program completion rate and the cost of equity. We present a number of explanations for this result.

Um dos reflexos esperados pela utilização da contabilidade está em uma menor assimetria informacional entre as partes, sendo capaz de afetar a performance econômica das empresas, reduzindo o custo de capital próprio das mesmas (BUSHMAN; SMITH, 2001). À vista disso, ganhos na qualidade da informação emanada pela contabilidade teriam o poder de influenciar o custo do capital próprio, diminuindo-o e elevando a performance das firmas. Com intuito de auferir tais ganhos, foi criado o International Accounting Standards Board - IASB que passou a emitir normas denominadas International Financial Reporting Standards - IFRS que, por sua vez, delimitaram uma série de medidas a serem seguidas, buscando harmonizar as práticas contábeis sob um único pilar. Entretanto, a adoção das IFRS não está desprendida das forças do mercado de capitais e da qualidade do enforcement do país adotante, não havendo uma correlação clara entre a convergência contábil e o acréscimo de qualidade. Consequentemente, o impacto da sua adoção perante a performance econômica e o custo de capital próprio também é divergente. O presente trabalho tem o intuito de avaliar os impactos sobre o custo de capital próprio das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto em função da convergência, averiguando o comportamento da taxa. Ademais, busca-se aplicar quatro metodologias de estimativa do custo de capital próprio: Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), Easton (2004), Claus e Thomas (2001) e Gebhardt, Lee e Swaminathan (2001) e confrontá-las na avaliação do impacto da adoção do IFRS no Brasil. Os resultados indicam uma redução do custo de capital próprio em três pontos base perante o modelo de Easton (2004), mas resultados não significantes para os modelos de Gebhardt, Lee e Swaminathan (2001) e Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), sendo o modelo de Claus e Thomas (2001) excluído da análise por dados insuficientes. Tais pontos predizem a necessidade de aprofundamento das pesquisas com modelos de custo implícito e ressalva se a adoção internacional foi realmente eficiente frente aos incentivos e o enforcement vigente no país. / One of the expected consequences when using accounting is a lower information asymmetry between the parties, being able to affect the economic performance of firms, reducing the cost of equity capital of them (BUSHMAN; SMITH, 2001). Thus gains in the quality of the information disclosed by accounting would have the power to influence the cost of equity capital, reducing it and increasing the performance of the firms. With the purpose of obtaining these gains, was created the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) which began issuing accounting standards called International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to delimit a range of measures to be followed, seeking to harmonize the accounting practices under one pillar. However, the adoption of IFRS is not detached from the forces of capital markets and of the adopter country enforcement, without a clear correlation between the accounting convergence and the quality increase. Consequently, the impact of its adoption on the economic performance of firms and the cost of equity capital is also divergent. This study aims to evaluate the impact on the cost of equity capital of Brazilian joint-stock companies due to the convergence to IFRS. Furthermore, the present work seek to apply four methods of estimating the cost of equity capital: Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), Easton (2004), Claus and Thomas (2001) and Gebhardt, Lee and Swaminathan (2001) confronting each one on the analysis of the IFRS adoption impacts in Brazil. The results indicate a reduction of 3 basis points in the cost of equity capital under the framework of Easton (2004), but there are no significant results for the models of Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), Gebhardt, Lee and Swaminathan (2001), which the Claus and Thomas (2001) model was excluded for enough data. These points predict the need for further development of research on implied cost of capital models and raise the question if international convergence was really efficient given the incentives and the current enforcement in the country.

A teoria sobre o custo de capital das empresas estudada desde a década de 1950 trouxe amplas contribuições aos estudos de finanças corporativas, alocação de carteiras de investimento, fusões e aquisições, ciências contábeis, entre outras aplicações. Os modelos clássicos de custo de capital compreendem modelos como o CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), de Sharpe, Lintner e Mossin; o APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory), de Ross; o modelo de 3-fatores, de Fama e French, e de 4-fatores, de Carhart, entre outros. Em virtude das diversas críticas feitas aos modelos clássicos (ELTON, 1999; FAMA; FRENCH, 2004; GRINBLATT; TITMAN, 2005; ASHTON; WANG, 2012; HOU et al., 2012), há então espaço para o surgimento de uma metodologia alternativa para estimativa do custo de capital das empresas, contexto em que surgem os modelos de Custo de Capital Implícito (ICC - Implied Cost of Capital). São cinco os principais modelos de ICC estudados e testados na literatura: Gordon e Gordon, modelo FHERM (1997), Claus e Thomas, modelo CT (2001), Gebhardt, Lee e Swaminathan, modelo GLS (2001), Ohlson e Juettner-Nauroth, modelo OJ (2005) e Easton, modelo de EASTON (2004). Todos se baseiam em expectativas sobre resultados futuros projetados, e as pesquisas que os aplicam fundamentam-se majoritariamente em projeções de analistas. Há, no entanto, diversos problemas levantados pela literatura quanto ao uso de dados produzidos por analistas (GUAY et al., 2011; HOU et al., 2012; KARAMANOU, 2012). Hou et al. (2012) propõem então uma metodologia cross-sectional de projeções de resultados das empresas, com base em dados contábeis, alternativa às projeções dos analistas e aplicável aos modelos de ICC, a qual se mostrou eficiente para os testes desenvolvidos. O objetivo desta tese foi verificar se a metodologia de projeção de lucros proposta por Hou et al. (2012), com as devidas considerações e ajustes, é válida para aplicação no mercado brasileiro e, em caso positivo, verificar qual a magnitude do Custo de Capital Implícito esperado pelos investidores para aplicação de recursos no Brasil, através da aplicação dos cinco principais modelos de ICC. Analisou-se também se os modelos de ICC podem ser considerados eficientes como ferramenta para prever os ativos que terão maiores ou menores retornos futuros e, por fim, verificou-se como o prêmio pelo risco implícito se compara com o prêmio pelo risco do CAPM, e qual das duas abordagens é mais eficiente como ferramenta de precificação de ativos. Para tanto, foi analisada uma janela de dados de 1994 a 2014. As principais conclusões obtidas foram: (i) o modelo de Hou et al. (2012) ajustado tem desempenho muito positivo para fins de projeção de lucros no Brasil, com capacidade de prever 69,8% dos lucros futuros; (ii) o prêmio pelo risco implícito apurado para o Brasil para o período de 1994 a 2014 é da magnitude de 7,5% a.a., em linha com a literatura internacional e nacional; (iii) identificou-se a importância de se efetuarem ajustes e controles inflacionários, em especial, para aplicar os modelos GLS e CT, sob risco de subestimar o ICC nesses modelos; (iv) verificou-se que o único modelo, entre os testados, contraindicado para aplicação no Brasil é o FHERM, cujas simplificações teóricas e de premissas levam a resultados muito voláteis e pouco capazes de prever os retornos futuros das ações; e (v) na análise comparativa entre os modelos de ICC e os modelos clássicos de custo de capital, concluiu-se que as metodologias de ICC testadas são eficientes como ferramenta para previsão da performance futura dos ativos, diferentemente do CAPM tradicional que apresentou resultados inferiores e não conclusivos para tais fins. Por fim, salienta-se a potencial contribuição dos modelos de ICC para análises relacionadas às finanças comportamentais e prêmios de liquidez. / The theory on companies\' cost of capital has been studied since the 1960s, bringing forward extensive contributions to the study of corporate finance, allocation of investment portfolios, mergers and acquisitions, accounting, among other several applications. The classical models of cost of capital include, for example, the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) of Shrape, Lintnet and Mossin, the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) of Ross, the 3-factor model of Fama and French and the 4-factor model of Carhart. Due to the several criticisms directed at the classical models and its limitations (ELTON, 1999; FAMA; FRENCH, 2004; GRINBLATT; TITMAN, 2005; ASHTON; WANG, 2012; HOU et al., 2012), this context made room for the emergence of an alternative methodology for estimating the firms\' cost of capital, represented by the Implied Cost of Capital models (ICC). There are five main models of ICC studied and tested in the literature: Gordon and Gordon, FHERM Model (1997), Claus and Thomas, CT Model (2001), Gebhardt Lee and Swaminathan, GLS Model (2001), Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth, OJ Model (2005) and Easton, EASTON Model (2004). All such models are based on expectations about projected future earnings, and studies that apply these methods are predominantly based on analysts\' estimates. There are, however, several problems raised by the literature regarding the use of analysts projections (GUAY et al., 2011; HOU et al., 2012; KARAMANOU, 2012). Hou et al. (2012) then proposed a cross-sectional approach to estimate the firms\' future earnings, as an alternative methodology to apply in the ICC models, which was proved very efficient. Given this context, the objective of this thesis is to verify whether the cross-sectional methodology proposed by Hou et al. (2012) to estimate future earnings, with due adjustments to the local market\'s characteristics, is valid for application in Brazil. If so, we should then verify what the magnitude of the ICC expected by investors in Brazil is, estimated using the five main ICC models. Also, this thesis should analyse if the ICC models can be considered efficient as a tool to predict which assets should have larger or smaller future returns. Finally, we should compare the risk premium estimated by the ICC models and risk premium estimated by the CAPM, and identify which of the two approaches is more efficient for asset pricing. In order to achieve such goals, a window of data from 1994 to 2014 was analysed. The main results achieved were: (i) the adjusted model of Hou et al. (2012) has shown very positive performance for projecting earnings in Brasil, with power to predict 69,8% of future earnings; (ii) the implicit risk premium for the Brazilian market from 1994 to 2014 is of 7,5% per year, which corroborates the national and international literature; (iii) it was identified the need of controlling for inflation effects, specially when implementing the GLS and CT models, at risk of underestimating the ICC if not taking the due precautions; (iv) the only model, among the tested, which was identified as unfit for applying to the Brazilian market was FHERM, since its theorical simplifications lead to too volatile results, which are poorly capable of predicting future returns; and (v) when comparing the ICC to the classical models, it was concluded that the ICC methodologies are efficient as a tool to infer future asstes\' performance, while the traditional CAPM presents poor and unconclusuve results for such purpose. At last, we stress the potencial contribution of the ICC models to the study of behavioral finance and liquidity premiums.

Researchers criticize predominant expected return models for being imprecise and based on fundamentally flawed assumptions. This dissertation evaluates Implied Cost of Capital, CAPM and the Three-Factor model abilities to estimate returns. We study each models expected return association to realized return and test for abnormal returns. Our sample covers the period 2000 to 2012 and includes 2916 US firms. We find that Implied Cost of Capital has a stronger association with realized returns than CAPM and the Three-Factor model. Implied Cost of Capital also has lower abnormal returns not accounted for by expected returns. Our results suggest that we can replace CAPM and the Three-Factor model with Implied Cost of Capital.

A teoria sobre o custo de capital das empresas estudada desde a década de 1950 trouxe amplas contribuições aos estudos de finanças corporativas, alocação de carteiras de investimento, fusões e aquisições, ciências contábeis, entre outras aplicações. Os modelos clássicos de custo de capital compreendem modelos como o CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), de Sharpe, Lintner e Mossin; o APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory), de Ross; o modelo de 3-fatores, de Fama e French, e de 4-fatores, de Carhart, entre outros. Em virtude das diversas críticas feitas aos modelos clássicos (ELTON, 1999; FAMA; FRENCH, 2004; GRINBLATT; TITMAN, 2005; ASHTON; WANG, 2012; HOU et al., 2012), há então espaço para o surgimento de uma metodologia alternativa para estimativa do custo de capital das empresas, contexto em que surgem os modelos de Custo de Capital Implícito (ICC - Implied Cost of Capital). São cinco os principais modelos de ICC estudados e testados na literatura: Gordon e Gordon, modelo FHERM (1997), Claus e Thomas, modelo CT (2001), Gebhardt, Lee e Swaminathan, modelo GLS (2001), Ohlson e Juettner-Nauroth, modelo OJ (2005) e Easton, modelo de EASTON (2004). Todos se baseiam em expectativas sobre resultados futuros projetados, e as pesquisas que os aplicam fundamentam-se majoritariamente em projeções de analistas. Há, no entanto, diversos problemas levantados pela literatura quanto ao uso de dados produzidos por analistas (GUAY et al., 2011; HOU et al., 2012; KARAMANOU, 2012). Hou et al. (2012) propõem então uma metodologia cross-sectional de projeções de resultados das empresas, com base em dados contábeis, alternativa às projeções dos analistas e aplicável aos modelos de ICC, a qual se mostrou eficiente para os testes desenvolvidos. O objetivo desta tese foi verificar se a metodologia de projeção de lucros proposta por Hou et al. (2012), com as devidas considerações e ajustes, é válida para aplicação no mercado brasileiro e, em caso positivo, verificar qual a magnitude do Custo de Capital Implícito esperado pelos investidores para aplicação de recursos no Brasil, através da aplicação dos cinco principais modelos de ICC. Analisou-se também se os modelos de ICC podem ser considerados eficientes como ferramenta para prever os ativos que terão maiores ou menores retornos futuros e, por fim, verificou-se como o prêmio pelo risco implícito se compara com o prêmio pelo risco do CAPM, e qual das duas abordagens é mais eficiente como ferramenta de precificação de ativos. Para tanto, foi analisada uma janela de dados de 1994 a 2014. As principais conclusões obtidas foram: (i) o modelo de Hou et al. (2012) ajustado tem desempenho muito positivo para fins de projeção de lucros no Brasil, com capacidade de prever 69,8% dos lucros futuros; (ii) o prêmio pelo risco implícito apurado para o Brasil para o período de 1994 a 2014 é da magnitude de 7,5% a.a., em linha com a literatura internacional e nacional; (iii) identificou-se a importância de se efetuarem ajustes e controles inflacionários, em especial, para aplicar os modelos GLS e CT, sob risco de subestimar o ICC nesses modelos; (iv) verificou-se que o único modelo, entre os testados, contraindicado para aplicação no Brasil é o FHERM, cujas simplificações teóricas e de premissas levam a resultados muito voláteis e pouco capazes de prever os retornos futuros das ações; e (v) na análise comparativa entre os modelos de ICC e os modelos clássicos de custo de capital, concluiu-se que as metodologias de ICC testadas são eficientes como ferramenta para previsão da performance futura dos ativos, diferentemente do CAPM tradicional que apresentou resultados inferiores e não conclusivos para tais fins. Por fim, salienta-se a potencial contribuição dos modelos de ICC para análises relacionadas às finanças comportamentais e prêmios de liquidez. / The theory on companies\' cost of capital has been studied since the 1960s, bringing forward extensive contributions to the study of corporate finance, allocation of investment portfolios, mergers and acquisitions, accounting, among other several applications. The classical models of cost of capital include, for example, the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) of Shrape, Lintnet and Mossin, the APT (Arbitrage Pricing Theory) of Ross, the 3-factor model of Fama and French and the 4-factor model of Carhart. Due to the several criticisms directed at the classical models and its limitations (ELTON, 1999; FAMA; FRENCH, 2004; GRINBLATT; TITMAN, 2005; ASHTON; WANG, 2012; HOU et al., 2012), this context made room for the emergence of an alternative methodology for estimating the firms\' cost of capital, represented by the Implied Cost of Capital models (ICC). There are five main models of ICC studied and tested in the literature: Gordon and Gordon, FHERM Model (1997), Claus and Thomas, CT Model (2001), Gebhardt Lee and Swaminathan, GLS Model (2001), Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth, OJ Model (2005) and Easton, EASTON Model (2004). All such models are based on expectations about projected future earnings, and studies that apply these methods are predominantly based on analysts\' estimates. There are, however, several problems raised by the literature regarding the use of analysts projections (GUAY et al., 2011; HOU et al., 2012; KARAMANOU, 2012). Hou et al. (2012) then proposed a cross-sectional approach to estimate the firms\' future earnings, as an alternative methodology to apply in the ICC models, which was proved very efficient. Given this context, the objective of this thesis is to verify whether the cross-sectional methodology proposed by Hou et al. (2012) to estimate future earnings, with due adjustments to the local market\'s characteristics, is valid for application in Brazil. If so, we should then verify what the magnitude of the ICC expected by investors in Brazil is, estimated using the five main ICC models. Also, this thesis should analyse if the ICC models can be considered efficient as a tool to predict which assets should have larger or smaller future returns. Finally, we should compare the risk premium estimated by the ICC models and risk premium estimated by the CAPM, and identify which of the two approaches is more efficient for asset pricing. In order to achieve such goals, a window of data from 1994 to 2014 was analysed. The main results achieved were: (i) the adjusted model of Hou et al. (2012) has shown very positive performance for projecting earnings in Brasil, with power to predict 69,8% of future earnings; (ii) the implicit risk premium for the Brazilian market from 1994 to 2014 is of 7,5% per year, which corroborates the national and international literature; (iii) it was identified the need of controlling for inflation effects, specially when implementing the GLS and CT models, at risk of underestimating the ICC if not taking the due precautions; (iv) the only model, among the tested, which was identified as unfit for applying to the Brazilian market was FHERM, since its theorical simplifications lead to too volatile results, which are poorly capable of predicting future returns; and (v) when comparing the ICC to the classical models, it was concluded that the ICC methodologies are efficient as a tool to infer future asstes\' performance, while the traditional CAPM presents poor and unconclusuve results for such purpose. At last, we stress the potencial contribution of the ICC models to the study of behavioral finance and liquidity premiums.

Um dos reflexos esperados pela utilização da contabilidade está em uma menor assimetria informacional entre as partes, sendo capaz de afetar a performance econômica das empresas, reduzindo o custo de capital próprio das mesmas (BUSHMAN; SMITH, 2001). À vista disso, ganhos na qualidade da informação emanada pela contabilidade teriam o poder de influenciar o custo do capital próprio, diminuindo-o e elevando a performance das firmas. Com intuito de auferir tais ganhos, foi criado o International Accounting Standards Board - IASB que passou a emitir normas denominadas International Financial Reporting Standards - IFRS que, por sua vez, delimitaram uma série de medidas a serem seguidas, buscando harmonizar as práticas contábeis sob um único pilar. Entretanto, a adoção das IFRS não está desprendida das forças do mercado de capitais e da qualidade do enforcement do país adotante, não havendo uma correlação clara entre a convergência contábil e o acréscimo de qualidade. Consequentemente, o impacto da sua adoção perante a performance econômica e o custo de capital próprio também é divergente. O presente trabalho tem o intuito de avaliar os impactos sobre o custo de capital próprio das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto em função da convergência, averiguando o comportamento da taxa. Ademais, busca-se aplicar quatro metodologias de estimativa do custo de capital próprio: Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), Easton (2004), Claus e Thomas (2001) e Gebhardt, Lee e Swaminathan (2001) e confrontá-las na avaliação do impacto da adoção do IFRS no Brasil. Os resultados indicam uma redução do custo de capital próprio em três pontos base perante o modelo de Easton (2004), mas resultados não significantes para os modelos de Gebhardt, Lee e Swaminathan (2001) e Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), sendo o modelo de Claus e Thomas (2001) excluído da análise por dados insuficientes. Tais pontos predizem a necessidade de aprofundamento das pesquisas com modelos de custo implícito e ressalva se a adoção internacional foi realmente eficiente frente aos incentivos e o enforcement vigente no país. / One of the expected consequences when using accounting is a lower information asymmetry between the parties, being able to affect the economic performance of firms, reducing the cost of equity capital of them (BUSHMAN; SMITH, 2001). Thus gains in the quality of the information disclosed by accounting would have the power to influence the cost of equity capital, reducing it and increasing the performance of the firms. With the purpose of obtaining these gains, was created the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) which began issuing accounting standards called International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to delimit a range of measures to be followed, seeking to harmonize the accounting practices under one pillar. However, the adoption of IFRS is not detached from the forces of capital markets and of the adopter country enforcement, without a clear correlation between the accounting convergence and the quality increase. Consequently, the impact of its adoption on the economic performance of firms and the cost of equity capital is also divergent. This study aims to evaluate the impact on the cost of equity capital of Brazilian joint-stock companies due to the convergence to IFRS. Furthermore, the present work seek to apply four methods of estimating the cost of equity capital: Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), Easton (2004), Claus and Thomas (2001) and Gebhardt, Lee and Swaminathan (2001) confronting each one on the analysis of the IFRS adoption impacts in Brazil. The results indicate a reduction of 3 basis points in the cost of equity capital under the framework of Easton (2004), but there are no significant results for the models of Ohlson Juettner-Nauroth (2005), Gebhardt, Lee and Swaminathan (2001), which the Claus and Thomas (2001) model was excluded for enough data. These points predict the need for further development of research on implied cost of capital models and raise the question if international convergence was really efficient given the incentives and the current enforcement in the country.

The most widely used Cost of Capital model is the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The Beta, Which is a key input into the model has proven to be unreliable and provides no correlation with systematic risk. As risk increases, so should the cost of capital of the firm. The Beta is a historic measure of risk and does not capture the future outlook of risk. The future of an organisation and its risk may look very different to the past and therefore the need to calculate the Cost of Capital of a firm based on the future outlook of the firm. The aim of this research was to analyse the different methodologies used to determine the Cost of Capital of a firm in order to determine which models are better ex ante predictor of Cost of Capital in the South African context. Regression analysis was used to make statistical inferences between the measure of risk used and the Cost of Capital model in question. The results of the research has shown that Market Capitalisation and Price to Book ratio are the best proxies for risk when comparing it with the ex ante Cost of Capital models. However, the Three Factor Pricing Model is shown to be the best Cost of Capital model to capture the future outlook of risk. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2010. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T19:13:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 18 / Nenhuma / O objetivo deste estudo foi identificar possíveis determinantes do custo de capital implícito nas empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, no período de 2001 a 2005. Primeiramente foi calculado o custo de capital implícito para cada empresa da amostra, procedendo-se após esta etapa, à escolha e à verificação dos possíveis determinantes (características de empresas) com poder de explicar esse custo de capital implícito. Define-se por custo de capital implícito, a taxa de retorno que faz os fluxos de caixas projetados igual ao valor corrente da ação. Para este cálculo foi utilizado o modelo de avaliação pelo lucro residual, também conhecido como modelo de Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) e a previsão dos lucros fornecida pelos analistas de mercado (I/B/E/S) como forma de estimar os fluxos de caixa projetados. Os determinantes constituem-se nas variáveis indicadas pela literatura financeira e que demonstraram relação explicativa com o custo de capital ou o retorno das ações. Foram selecionadas 15 variáveis, dividas em c / The purpose of this study was to identify the possible determining factors of the implied cost of capital in Brazilian listed companies from 2001-2005. First, the implied cost of capital for each company within the sample was calculated, after which the possible determining factors (company characteristics) with the predicting power to explain this implied cost of capital were selected. The implied cost of capital is defined as a return rate that makes discounted cash flow equal to the stock current value. For this calculation, the residual income model was used, also known as Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) model along with the earnings forecast given by market analysts (I/B/E/S) as a way to estimate the discounted cash flow. The determining factors are variables indicated by financial literature and demonstrate the explainable relationship with capital cost or the stocks return. Fifteen (15) variables were selected and then divided into five groups: volatility, leverage, information environment, earnings variabil

This dissertation is concerned with the relationship between accounting earnings and stock prices. It consists of three empirical papers, all using a sample of firms listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange (1990-2008). The first paper documents the existence of a drift in stock prices subsequent to quarterly earnings announcements. Two interesting empirical observations are that the drift is only significant for longer holding periods and that the drift on the short position, i.e. after bad earnings news, is negligible. The lack of downward drift on the short position is interpreted as an indication of the post-earnings announcement drift, at least partly, being explained by investors demanding a compensation for a risk factor that is omitted in the test design. The second paper illustrates under what conditions information risk in the earnings signal might explain a low announcement reaction and a price drift in the post-announcement period. It is hypothesized that two earnings signals – based either on GAAP earnings or core earnings – have different levels of information uncertainty with respect to how they depict the value creation of the firm. In the empirical sections, it is concluded that the low immediate announcement reaction and high post-announcement drift for the GAAP earnings signal is due to this signal being perceived by investors as containing more uncertainty than the core earnings signal. It is argued that this uncertainty might be due to GAAP earnings encompassing items that prior research has shown more likely to be manipulated and/or to contain estimation error. The positive association between information risk and expected return is further investigated in the third paper, where information risk is measured by earnings quality metrics. Using a new approach to estimate the implied cost of capital, it is found that Swedish investors demand a higher expected return for firms with poor earnings quality, i.e. firms associated with higher information risk. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2011