Drought, which is an important result of the climate change, is one of the most serious natural hazards globally. It has been agreed all over the world that it has adverse impacts on the production of agriculture, which plays a major role in the economy of a country. Studies showed that the results of the drought directly affected the crop yields, and it seems that this negative impact will continue drastically soon. Moreover, many researches revealed that, Turkey will be affected from the results of climate change in many aspects, especially the agricultural production will encounter dry seasons after the rapid changes in the precipitation amount. Insurance is a well-established method, which is used to share the risk based on natural disasters by people and organizations. Furthermore, a new way of insuring against the weather shocks is designing index-based insurance, and it has gained special attention in many developing countries. In this study, our aim is to model weather index based drought insurance product to help the small holder farmers in the Cental Anatolia Region under different models. At first, time series techniques were applied to forecast the wheat yield relying on the past data. Then, the AMS (AgroMetShell) software outputs, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values were used, and SPI values for distinct time steps were chosen to develop a basic threshold based drought insurance for each province. Linear regression equations were used to calculate the trigger points for weather index, afterwards based on these trigger levels / pure premium and indemnity calculations were made for each province separately. In addition to this, Panel Data Analysis were used to construct an alternative linear model for drought insurance. It can be helpful to understand the direct and actual effects of selected weather index measures on wheat yield and also reduce the basis risks for constructed contracts. A simple ratio was generated to compare the basis risk of the different index-based insurance contracts.

Rainfed agriculture is inherently risky, with climate change expected to intensify its variability. In the West African Sahel, where agriculture is crucial not only for subsistence but for national and household incomes through cotton production, the need to safeguard farmers' livelihoods against risk is essential. Formal crop insurance providers in such contexts cannot easily rely on traditional models, where indemnifications are based on realized losses, and have instead proposed a stream of index-based insurance products which indemnify clients based on a predefined, and yet objective parameter (the index). One promising product for Burkinabe cotton farmers is, the Double-Trigger Index-Based Insurance (2TIC), whose two-tier triggering mechanism has the potential of reducing moral hazard and minimizing basis risk. This dissertation uses three essays to consider a farmer-centric approach to assessing the implications of this double trigger mechanism for index-based insurance. The first essay explores cotton farmers' judgments of fairness vis-à-vis the 2TIC indemnification system by using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Logistic Regression Analyses, and examines if and how these judgments affect decisions to subscribe. The second essay assesses the impact of 2TIC on farmers' cotton-derived net income by employing Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM). The third essay compares the actuarially fair premium of the 2TIC with the commercial premium paid by cotton farmers, by using statistical approaches. The study provides important evidence-based insights into how 2TIC can be improved and promoted by incorporating farmers' needs and perspectives.

Die Beiträge der vorliegenden Dissertationsschrift untersuchen zum einen, inwieweit Wetterindexversicherungen einen Beitrag zur Stabilisierung von wetterbedingten Einkommensschwankungen in der Landwirtschaft leisten können. In der Landwirtschaft ist trotz bedeutender wetterbedingter Einkommensschwankungen bisher nur ein sehr verhaltener Einsatz von Indexversicherungen zu beobachten. Allerdings gibt es bislang kaum Studien, die Möglichkeiten zur Reduzierung des mit dem Einsatz von Wetterindexversicherungen verbundenen Basisrisikos untersuchen. Zum anderen wird untersucht, inwieweit Wetterrisiken das Rückzahlungsverhalten landwirtschaftlicher Mikrokreditnehmer beeinflussen. Das Risiko bei der Kreditvergabe an landwirtschaftliche Klein-Betriebe in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern gilt aus Bankensicht aufgrund der vergleichsweise hohen Einkommensschwankungen in der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion als besonders hoch. In der Literatur wird das wetterbedingte Einkommensrisiko als wesentlicher Grund für das vergleichsweise hohe Kreditrisiko von landwirtschaftlichen Mikrokrediten angeführt. Allerdings wurde dies bislang noch nicht empirisch verifiziert. Die Dissertationsschrift widmet sich dem Thema in vier Beiträgen, die unterschiedliche Aspekte der übergeordneten Problematik behandeln.

Thesis (M.Sc. Agriculture (Agricultural Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / Climate change and variability on a global level is one of the most serious environmental challenges which exacerbates the well-known vulnerability of smallholder farmers. To cushion the shock of climate change, risk management plays a crucial role in farming, and in the same context, insurance positions itself as one of the main risk management instruments available to farmers. However, one of the key reasons to the struggles of smallholder farmers in South Africa is the inability to obtain effective insurance. To this end, the study identified and profiled the socio-economic features of smallholder cattle farmers, identified smallholder cattle farmers’ perceptions on components of climate change as sources of risk to cattle production and finally, analysed the determinants of willingness to adopt IBLI among smallholder cattle farmers. A purposive multistage sampling procedure was used to identify 110 smallholder cattle farmers in the Polokwane local Municipality. IBM SPSS version 26 and STATA version 15 was used to analyse the primary cross-sectional data collected through structured questionnaire interviews. Farmers’ perceptions on components of climate change as sources of risk were identified using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The PCA revealed three principal components (PCs) explaining almost 61% of the variance of the original variables (climate change components). Furthermore, about 89% of the sampled farmers were willing to adopt IBLI, while about 11% weren’t willing to adopt and the Probit regression model results revealed that marital status, farming experience, access to extension services, off- farm income and land ownership, farmers’ educational level, household size, experience of livestock loss and farm size significantly influenced willingness to adopt IBLI. Based on the findings of this study, the recommended interventions include workshops for raising IBLI awareness, government subsidy on insurance premiums and finally, increased extension service reach to smallholder cattle farmers. / AgriSETA

学位プログラム名: 京都大学大学院思修館 / 京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(総合学術) / 甲第24056号 / 総総博第25号 / 新制||総総||4(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院総合生存学館総合生存学専攻 / (主査)教授 山敷 庸亮, 教授 寶 馨, 教授 池田 裕一, 佐藤 達彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy / Kyoto University / DFAM

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Cette thèse s’intéresse aux effets macroéconomiques du développement financier sur la vulnérabilité dans l’emploi dans les pays émergeants et en développement. Dans le premier chapitre, nous montrons que l’accès au crédit et les inégalités de revenu augmentent le travail des enfants surtout dans les pays à forte inégalité ou à faible revenu. Ce résultat indique que les parents tendent à investir leur crédit dans des projets qui accroissent le coût d’opportunité de l’éducation et le bénéfice attendu du travail des enfants. Ainsi, nous démontrons qu’un meilleur contrôle de la corruption permet d’améliorer l’efficacité du développement financier ainsi que des dépenses d’éducation en vue de réduire le travail des enfants. Cela passe notamment par une amélioration de la qualité de l’éducation. Dans le second chapitre, nous démontrons qu’un meilleur accès aux services financiers ainsi qu’une réduction des contraintes en termes d’utilisation de ces produits réduit la proportion de travailleurs pauvres. Cet effet est plus important en cas d’instabilité macroéconomique. De plus, ce meilleur accès bénéficie également aux non pauvres qui étaient précédemment exclus, ces derniers étant plus à même d’investir et de réduire indirectement la proportion de travailleurs pauvres via une croissance plus forte. Les résultats du troisième chapitre suggèrent qu’aussi bien le développement financier et les transferts de fonds des migrants peuvent limiter la prolifération du secteur informel. Cependant, ils tendent à être substituts, avec notamment un faible niveau de développement financier initial qui est compensé par l’utilisation des transferts de fonds. Finalement dans le chapitre 4, nous passons en revue des produits financiers flexibles et innovants qui pourraient permettre aux plus vulnérables de mieux faire face aux chocs. Nos résultats suggèrent que ces produits doivent être conçus de manière à offrir dans un premier temps des produits d’épargne en supprimant notamment les frais d’ouverture de compte. Leur utilisation devrait permettre de produire de l’information sur les emprunteurs notamment sur la base de l’historique des versements et leur fréquence. Ainsi en cas de choc, l’épargne accumulée peut servir de garantie pour le prêt complété si nécessaire par des produits d’assurance. Le « mobile banking » peut également servir pour la diffusion des produits flexibles et dans une plus large mesure de support pour accroître le niveau de bancarisation, vu le nombre croissant de personnes utilisant le téléphone portable. / This thesis explored the macroeconomic effects of financial development on the most vulnerable workers in developing and emerging countries. Chapter one focuses on child labor. Our results suggest that child labor is positively associated to financial development and inequality particularly in countries with high level of income inequalities and low level of income. In fact, with access to credit, households tend to invest in productive activities which increase the opportunity cost of education and the returns from child labor. Hence, we demonstrate that a better control of corruption makes financial development as well as education spending more effective in reducing child labor by improving education quality. In the second chapter, we show that more bank branches and limiting barriers to use financial services reduce the proportion of working poor. This result is more relevant in countries hit by macroeconomic shocks and a better access to financial services also benefits to the excluded non-poor who can in turn invest and reduce poverty. In the third chapter, we find that both financial development and remittances tend to reduce the spread of the shadow economy by channelling funds to the more productive activities. Moreover, they tend to be substitutes, indicating that households rely on remittances in countries with low level of financial development. Finally, chapter four reviews innovative flexible financial products which can be used to help the more vulnerable to manage shocks. Our results suggest that, first barriers to open saving and checking accounts (like opening fees) need to be suppressed in order to increase the use of these services, generating more information on potential borrowers on the basis of the history and frequency of payments. Then, accumulated savings can be used as collateral for loan supplemented by insurance services. Mobile banking could also serve as support for flexible financial services.Keywords: Financial development, financial services; child labor, decent work, vulnerability, informal sector shadow economy, underground economy, institutions, inequality, working poverty, developing countries, trickle-down effect, remittances, microfinance, flexibility, discipline, risk, shocks, index-based insurance, combined products.