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published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Master / Master of Science in Construction Project Management

Thesis (M. S.)--Building Construction, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010. / Committee Chair: Castro-Lacouture, Daniel; Committee Member: McElroy, James H.; Committee Member: Roper, Kathy. Part of the SMARTech Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Collection.

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The purpose of this thesis was to acquaint the reader on the nature of the uncertainty present in construction price forecasting and to introduce an environment that has the ability to integrate these uncertainties with greater consistency than that possessed by available price models. The objective of this thesis was to establish that uncertainty can be explicitly treated in price forecasting models. This would have two benefits to concerned parties. Firstly, the effectiveness of price forecasts could be improved as provision could be made for any uncertain variable. This will be of great benefit to the client, as a more accurate assessment of the building process could be established at an earlier stage of the design process. Secondly, the price forecast will be more useful to quantity surveyors, architects and clients, as it would 'quantify' the extent of the uncertainty which could be provided for in a more meaningful manner. In order to establish that existing price models do not deal with the uncertainty present at the time of forecasting, the price models used by practitioners were evaluated against the different types of uncertainty found at the different stages of the price forecasting process. Once this had been established, eight techniques that have the ability to treat various forms of uncertainty, were presented. After analysing the techniques abilities to cope with the uncertainties associated with price forecasting, it was established that certain of these techniques do have the ability, and are suitable, to be incorporated into the price forecasting process. From the results of a questionnaire survey conducted on quantity surveying offices in South Africa, it was found that the price models used by practitioners do not take uncertainty into account, and have in fact, the potential for uncertainty inducement. Some of the uncertainty found to be present in the preparation of a construction price forecast include the lack or incompleteness of design information, the uncertainty in the communication of design information, the variability in the data used by quantity surveyors and, the uncertainty in the choice of price model during the different stages of the design process. As a possible solution to the problem of uncertainty, an expert system environment, utilising a three-dimensional classification of uncertainty, has been proposed. It has been proved that this environment has the ability to cater for the uncertainty associated with the price forecasting process, as well as having the attribute of providing the user with the reasoning behind the logic that the expert system has followed, a characteristic not possible with the traditional forms of price models. From the findings of this thesis, it can be concluded that the methods of price modelling used by quantity surveying practitioners, are unable to take uncertainty into account effectively. It can also be concluded that an expert system environment has the ability to handle the different forms of uncertainty found at the various stages of construction design. The proposed model is conceptual in nature and has not been tested in practice. It is therefore recommended that further research be carried out in this field, with the aim of producing a construction price forecasting expert system which utilises the proposed three-dimensional classification of uncertainty.

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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report was conducted to critically review the methodologies and best practices prescribed by world class cost engineering experts and institutions, in order to develop a cost estimating model which organisations could use as a guideline for their cost estimates on large capital intensive projects. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsverslag is gedoen om ‘n kritiese oorsig te doen op die metodes en beste praktyke voorgeskryf deur wereldklas koste ingenieur deskundiges en instansies, om sodoende ‘n koste beramings model te ontwikkel wat gebruik kan word deur organisasies as handleiding gedurende die koste beraming van hulle kapitale intensiewe projekte.

Submitted by Marlene Aparecida de Souza Cardozo (mcardozo@pucsp.br) on 2016-12-19T14:50:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio Ricardo Carvalho Cabral.pdf: 2222832 bytes, checksum: 676c23d89a5c0136f156fa3a26ddb74d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-12-19T14:50:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Sergio Ricardo Carvalho Cabral.pdf: 2222832 bytes, checksum: 676c23d89a5c0136f156fa3a26ddb74d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-11-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / One of the major challenges for Brazil is that of overcoming the barriers that confine it the status of a developing country. However, in order for Brazil to reach an acceptable level of economic development it is necessary that the country face up to the serious structural problems preventing its growth. The Brazil cost, a term used to express issues such as high interest rates, deficient infrastructure, extremely high tax burden, excessive bureaucracy among others, has become the main hindrance to overcome. This paper proposes to identify the main elements that, according to industry sectors are the main cause of the systemic inefficiency in Brazil. Besides, in order to demonstrate how the Brazil cost affects the local industry’s competitiveness in relation to its foreign competitors, a comparative study between a company, whose parent plant is based in the United States of America, and its Brazilian subsidiary will be presented. This paper has adopted the causal comparative research methodology, collecting data straight from the partners, directors and employees of a mechanical seals industry, both in Brazil and the United States of America. This research seeks to identify how the Brazil cost, taking into account only five items (taxes, salaries/wages, energy, investment and raw materials) influences the costs of a mechanical seal produced in the country, as well as the main factors that impairs competitiveness on the local plant. The conclusion reached is that the Brazil cost hinders the local production to such an extent that, even though the exchange rate is strongly depreciated in relation to the American dollar, the national product is significantly more expensive than the same product manufactured in the North American facilities / Um dos maiores desafios para o Brasil é o de superar as barreiras que o mantém na condição de país em desenvolvimento. No entanto, para atingir um patamar aceitável de desenvolvimento econômico e social, é necessário que o país enfrente os graves problemas estruturais que impedem o seu crescimento. O Custo Brasil, termo usado para denominar as questões como as altas taxas de juros, a infraestrutura deficiente, a carga tributária extremamente alta e o excesso de burocracia, entre outros, passou a ser o principal obstáculo a ser superado. Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar os principais elementos que, segundo setores da indústria, são os causadores da ineficiência sistêmica no país. Além disso, para demonstrar que o Custo Brasil afeta a competitividade da indústria local frente a seus concorrentes externos, será apresentado um estudo comparativo entre uma indústria com matriz nos Estados Unidos da América e filial no Brasil. A presente pesquisa procurou adotar o método causal comparativo, por meio de coleta de dados diretamente com os sócios, diretores e colaboradores de uma indústria de selos mecânicos no Brasil e nos Estados Unidos da América. Procurou-se identificar como o Custo Brasil, considerando apenas cinco itens (tributos, salários, custos de energia, custo dos investimentos e custo dos insumos básicos), influencia os custos de produção de um selo mecânico produzido no país, bem como quais são os principais fatores que prejudicam a competitividade da planta local. Concluiu-se que o Custo Brasil prejudica de tal forma a produção local que, mesmo estando com o câmbio fortemente desvalorizado em relação ao dólar americano, o produto nacional é significativamente mais caro que o mesmo produto fabricado na planta norte-americana