This research attempts to evaluate the stability of money demand functions and estimate monetary inflation models in the East African Community (EAC), using quarterly aggregate data that range from 2000Q1 to 2012Q3. We used Johansen co-integration analysis to estimate and analyse the stability of the M3 money demand model for each country member of the EAC. From this estimation, we derived a country-specific measure of money overhang. We compared its forecasting power of future inflation with that of money stock growth, and money stock available in the economy. Regarding country-specific money demand functions, with the exception of Uganda, we identified a reasonable and stable country-specific M3 money demand model. Also, for predicting future inflation, the estimation results showed that M3 money stock growth is more reliable in Burundi and in Kenya, while M3 money overhang is preferable in Rwanda and M3 money stock in Tanzania. As both country-specific and regional (EAC area) information on monetary quantity growth and its impact on price level is important to know in a monetary union, we considered the EAC area as a single market and attempted to estimate the aggregate (EAC area) demand functions for broad money M2 and M3 using Johansen co-integration analysis. The estimated long-run aggregate money demand models M2 and M3 appeared to be stable over the sample period. However, the aggregate M2 and M3 at the EAC level were proven to be weakly exogenous, which should discard them for consideration at the EAC level as the intermediate targets variables in order to achieve the overall objective of price stability in the EAC region. Instead, short-term interest rate should be given a prominent role in monetary policy framework at the EAC level.

This doctoral thesis contains three essays on the macroeconomic impact of inflation targeting: (1) Inflation-targeting regime, as a framework for monetary policy conduct, has been adopted by central banks in thirty countries. Some of these countries enjoy high incomes while others have middle incomes. In contrast to the development-based classification –often applied in the literature, thus ignoring income disparity– this study employs income-based classification in constructing the data sample. The objective is to investigate, using a panel of middle-income countries, whether inflation targeting is a good remedy for high inflation. In addition to the commonly used covariates in the literature, this study also includes in its covariate matrix the worldwide governance indicators as proxy for institutional quality. The findings exhibit a significant reduction of inflation and its volatility among the inflation-targeting adopters compared to the non-adopting middle-income countries. The results are robust to the exclusion of high inflation episodes, and to using the alternative measures of inflation. The results are also robust to the post-estimation sensitivity tests recommended for such empirical analysis. (2) Many economists acknowledge the paramount role that foreign investment plays in fostering economic development and growth via integrating economies around the globe. Studies have shown that foreign investment, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI) is attracted to countries that exhibit good governance, low uncertainty and a high degree of macroeconomic stability. The literature also argues that monetary policy under inflation targeting (IT) mitigates uncertainty, enhances governance and brings macroeconomic stability to the adopting countries. Hence, it would seem that the IT-adoption should enable the adopting countries attract the largest FDI inflows. To verify this conjecture, this study performs a comparison between the IT-adopting countries and the non-adopters in attracting FDI. Using a panel of OECD and middle-income countries, the empirical findings exhibit an interesting but contradicting pattern: when it comes to the OECD countries, the results show that the IT-adopters do better than the non-adopters in attracting the FDI inflows. For the middle-income countries, however, the IT-adoption appears to have the opposite effect: a significant reduction in the FDI inflows is witnessed among the IT-adopters compared to their counterparts. The results are robust to the post-estimation sensitivity tests. (3) Inflation targeting, as a monetary-policy framework, is said to promote economic efficiency and growth. Yet, when evaluating the macroeconomic performance of inflation-targeting regimes, the existing literature only emphasizes the dynamics of inflation and the costs associated with taming inflation. There is hardly any assessment of the claim of efficiency and growth. To fill this gap, and to measure the causal impact of inflation-targeting adoption on economic efficiency, we compare the dynamics of output growth and long-term unemployment between countries that have adopted inflation targeting and the non-adopting countries. Our findings seem to refute the efficiency claim, and paint a bleak picture of inflation targeting: when compared to the countries that did not adopt inflation targeting, there is a significant reduction in the average growth rate among the inflation-targeting adopters by over ½ percentage point. Additionally, long-term unemployment significantly rises among the inflation-targeting countries by almost 2 percentage points as compared to the non-adopters. These results are robust to both the exclusion of the outlier observations and to the sensitivity tests recommended for such analysis.

Thesis focuses on issues of inflation and risks in evaluation of PPP projects. It sets the basic assumptions and standards for risk identification and administration in PPP projects and furthermore discusses their impact on Value for money and Availability payment. The thesis sets the basic rules for incorporating the inflation and risks into the PPP alternative and sets the rules for economic evaluation of PPP against PSC alterantive (Public Sector Comparator). For the illustration a hypothetical project of construction of primary and secondary schools has been worked out. For the evaluation of economic impact and selection of PPP vs. PSC alternative a standard financial model has been prepared. It focuses on analyzing the Value for moeny and seting up the Availability payment.

We estimate the macroeconomic performance in terms of inflation and GDP growth of Sweden in relations to oil price shocks, focusing on the differences across two periods, pre and post 2008. By using a Vector Error Correction model and linear hypothesis testing we can see short term and long term correlations between the nominal oil price and three dependent variables, GDP, CPI and GDP deflator. Our hypothesis is that the effects of oil price shocks are indifferent across our estimation period and this would be in line with previous literature.  We find that the macroeconomic factors of GDP and inflation responds differently post 2008 and by using impulse response functions (IRFs) we can see how the dependent variables responds to an oil price shock. They show that oil shocks have permanent effects in GDP and GDP deflator but transitory effects in CPI, we found short run causality for GDP and CPI but not for GDP deflator.

This thesis focuses on the quantitative easing as a tool used by the U.S. central bank in an effor to enhance the expansionary monetary policy even during the reduction of major interest rate close to zero. The aim is to analyze the impact of the first and second round of quantitative easing on the economy of the Unites States of America practiced by Fed. The aim is achieved primarily by using event study, which examined the effect of the first and second round of quantitatitve easing on the yield of U.S. Treasuries. In the context of quantitative easing other economic data such as macroeconomic development of U.S. economy or the situation in the real estat and stock marekts are studied. The second major area of this thesis is the analysis of inflation. The sharp rise of inflation is considered as a one of the major risks associated with quantitative easing. Relationship between quantitative easing and inflation is mainly studied by analyzing the behavior of banks and other economic subjects and by using the results of quantitative easing policiy in the countries which also used that policy.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22247号 / 理博第4561号 / 新制||理||1655(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科物理学・宇宙物理学専攻 / (主査)教授 畑 浩之, 教授 田中 貴浩, 教授 川合 光 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

The thesis consists of two essays on inflation targeting. The hrst essay examines how do centrál banks set their inflation targets. Survey of centrál banks' communication regard-ing the target is presented, theoretical model is developed and finally empirical analysis is conducted on a panel of inflation targeting countries. This pioneering analysis of the topič leads us to conclusion that inflation targets are influenced by more variables than centrál banks admit. In addition to past and foreign inflation, inflation variability and GDP growth we find significant impact of centrál bank credibility and other institutional factors. The short second essay surveys literatúre assessing performance of inflation targeting and outlines perspectives of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. The conclusion is that if inflation targeting centrál banks stick to their best practice in transparency and communication and remain open to innovations, inflation targeting will háve a good chance to score well even in the periods of turmoil.

The key goal of the following diploma thesis is to evaluate influence of the air pressure in the car tires on the driving dynamic, stability and comfort. The first part is dedicated to the theory of the driving dynamic, stability, tire parameters and tire inflation. Next practical part is focused on the drivers’ knowledge about the correct tire inflation and follows with the measurements and evaluation of the influence of the tire inflation on the driving characteristics, riding comfort and its comparison. These influences are summarized and followed up by the recommendations for the drivers and also the expert activities.

Inflation is a widespread occurrence in the modern world. Even in very stable economies inflation has increased rapidly over the past 20 years. In South Africa rising food, fuel and power costs will ensure that inflation remains high for some time to come. The income tax system cannot afford to ignore the importance of inflation. Capital gains on assets accumulate over the period the asset was held. The inflationary component included in the capital gain will be bigger the longer the asset is held. Capital gains are taxed only when an asset is sold, thus on a realization and not on an accrual basis. Capital gains are taxed as part of normal income in South Africa. If the annual capital gains are allowed to accumulate over years it might push the taxpayer into a higher marginal tax rate because of the use of a progressive income-tax system. A number of countries used indexation to adjust capital gains for inflation. In some countries indexation has been frozen or abolished and in others it is still used extensively today. Before a system of indexation can be introduced in the taxing of capital gains, a number of key factors should be considered. The benefits derived from inflation adjustment should not be out-weighed by the administrative and compliance cost. In the research it is concluded that South African taxpayers enjoy some limited indirect inflation adjustment. If attention is just focused on the asset side, indexation will create a tax benefit for some taxpayers who will finance the purchase of assets with borrowed funds. The liability side cannot be ignored and therefore further research will be needed to determine if the inflationary interest component should also be disallowed as a deduction for taxpayers. Copyright / Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Taxation / MCom / Unrestricted

Since the end of October 2010, the Bank of Japan has been pursuing a new Asset Purchase Programme, which includes, among other things, direct intervention in the domestic stock market through the purchase of exchange-traded funds. This research study evaluated the impact of the Bank of Japan’s exchange-traded fund purchase programme on market returns using an event study methodology. An investigation into a sample of 33 intervention events in the Nikkei 400 exchangetraded fund and 303 intervention events in the Nikkei 225 exchange-traded fund, found that the average abnormal one-day return is -1.36% for the Nikkei 400 exchange-traded fund and -1.39% for the Nikkei 225 exchange-traded fund, while the average abnormal five-day return is -0.63% and -1.11% for each exchange-traded fund respectively. Due to the high volatility, statistically the returns are indistinguishable from zero. However, this study presents evidence that the Bank of Japan intervenes predominantly during large decreases in the market. Hence, there is suggestive evidence that the Bank of Japan’s policy is effective at reducing market losses, but is not extensive enough to significantly increase returns.