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Analyzing the Short-Run Phillips Curve: The Case of Sweden 1997-2022 : Capturing the effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Ukraine Conflict on the Trade-off between Inflation and UnemploymentHedlund, Nicklas, Imla, Sabanovic January 2023 (has links)
This paper seeks to investigate whether a short-run Phillips curve exists between 1997-2022, and if there are evident changes in the trade-off since 2020, which could be due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. As the macroeconomic environment has changed drastically in the last couple of years, both as a result of the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, the relationship evolvement of the Phillips curve since the start of 2020 is of particular interest to investigate. The method used in this study is consistent with the approach utilized by Svensson (2015) in his estimation of the Phillips curve. However, Svensson’s study covers the period between 1997:Q4-2011:Q4, while our study portrays the short-run relationship until 2022:Q4. Additionally, dummy variables are incorporated into the OLS regression using robust standard errors to account for the impact of the economic disruptions since 2020. This study suggests that Sweden has a negative short-run Phillips curve equal to -2.5 for the whole period investigated. However, the study cannot conclude that there is a statistically significant change in the trade-off of the short-run Phillips curve after the start of 2020.
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När lönar det sig att valutasäkra? : En kvantitativ studie om sambandet mellan makrofaktorer och valutaderivatHettemark, Linnéa, Adolfsson, Josefin January 2023 (has links)
I takt med den alltmer ökade globaliseringen och svenska företag som intar internationella marknader har även riskerna för valutaexponeringar ökat. Företag som har in- och utgående transaktioner i utländsk valuta utsätts för transaktionsexponeringar då växelkurserna kan fluktuera i ogynnsam riktning mellan tidpunkten avtalet ingås tills att det ska regleras. Detta har lett till ett ökat behov av att använda sig av olika typer av valutaderivat för att skydda sig mot dessa fluktuationer. Däremot kan användningen av derivat leda till en valutakursvinst- eller förlust, då den låsta kursen kan vara högre eller lägre än den faktiska kursen. Denna studie undersöker huruvida det lönar sig för svenska internationella företag att använda sig av valutaderivat i form av valutaterminer, det vill säga att terminssäkringen genererar en valutakursvinst. Vidare undersöker studien om det finns stadier i det makroekonomiska klimatet där behovet av att valutasäkra är större, för att på så vis kunna ge vägledning till de företag med begränsade kunskaper kring ämnet. De makrofaktorer som har inkluderats i studien är Sveriges BNP, inflation och konjunkturcykel. Då riskexponeringen mot olika typer av valutor skiljer sig åt har även transaktionsspecifika egenskaper inkluderats i studien för att på så vis undersöka huruvida olika typer av transaktioner har ett större behov av att säkras än andra. Vår intention med studien är således att bidra med kunskap till svenska internationella företag kring när och hur en valutasäkring anses nödvändig för att undvika förluster i framtida kassaflöden på grund av valutakursförluster. Då tidigare forskning kring vilka faktorer som påverkar effektiviteten hos derivaten kan anses som bristfällig anser vi att studiens resultat öppnar upp för ytterligare forskning kring ämnet. Valutaterminerna testades i samband med historisk data på växelkurser och makrofaktorer under åren 2002-2022. Sammanlagt testades 729 transaktioner vilket inkluderade terminer på valutorna euro, brittiska pund och US dollar, med löptiderna tre, sex och 12 månader. Studiens empiriska resultat indikerar att det generellt sett lönar sig för svenska företag att använda sig av valutaterminer på utgående transaktioner i utländsk valuta och att sannolikheten för att terminerna visar sig lönsamma har ett visst samband med i vilket stadie konjunkturen befinner sig i. Vidare fann studiens resultat att behovet av valutasäkringar mot valutorna euro och brittiska pund är större än mot US dollar. Studiens resultat bidrar med en inblick i hur företagens makromiljö påverkar effektiviteten hos valutaderivaten. Eftersom makromiljön är något som påverkar företagens förutsättningar på kort och lång sikt är det av vikt att ha insikt kring vilka faktorer som påverkar vad, så att företagen kan agera utefter det. Tidigare forskning har primärt fokuserat på företagsspecifika faktorer kring användandet av valutaderivat, varpå vi anser att vår studie öppnar upp för en ny infallsvinkel till forskningsområdet.
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Inflationens påverkan på SEB och Handelsbankens riskahantering i Kalmar : En kvalitativ studie om hur den höjda inflationen påverkar riskhanteringen för två banker, varav en centraliserad och en decentraliserad, i kalmar. / The impact of inflation on SEB and Handelsbanken's risk managament in Kalmar : A qualitative study on how increased inflation affects risk management for two banks, one centralized and one decentralized, in Kalmar.Reinholdsson, Martin, Rinaoui, Yasmin, Rooth, Lovis January 2023 (has links)
Risks often operate in a routine way but are not always measurable, which can make them problematic. Historical events within the Swedish banking industry have exposed the financial system to economic crises as a result. Risk management is the part of business management that aims to identify, analyze and prevent risks. Hence, it is for reasons that research in the subject is required. Today, Sweden's economy is facing a new crisis which means high inflation and increased interest rates. We consider the area interesting because banks are in an industry that faces risks on a daily basis in the form of lending, among other things. As a result of this, it is of interest to investigate whether the organizational structure has any impact on risk management, as well as whether high inflation affects risk management in the various banks. Based on the research question, two case studies were applied to two banks in Kalmar. The essay is based on a qualitative method, with an abductive approach. The semi-structure was what characterized the interviews because we were looking for an in-depth conversation with each respondent. We can state that many factors within Handelsbanken and SEB in Kalmar depends on their organizational structure in the form of decentralization versus centralization. The risks banks face are largely the same but differ depending on how much authority the individual has. Planning for risks within the banks does not differ significantly, SEB's quarterly report gives a picture of what the future may look like. Handelsbanken has weekly and monthly reports that update employees on how the market looks. The risk management process also looks similar between banks with a difference in authority, which also depends on their organizational structure. We feel that Handelsbanken and SEB tend to increase the degree of centralization, which goes against the theory. Inflation did not bring about as great changes in either risks or risk management as we expected. We believe this is because they are prepared thanks to the risk-prone industry they operate in.
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The effects of inflation rates on Canadian chartered banks' portfolio allocation, 1960-1980 /Narrainen, Streevarsen P. January 1985 (has links)
No description available.
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Predictive ability or data snopping? : essays on forecasting with large data setsKışınbay, Turgut January 2004 (has links)
No description available.
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Théories de l'investissement et politique monétaire : l'expérience canadienne entre 1970-1982Solis, Stephane. January 1985 (has links)
No description available.
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Inflation and economic development : a survey of the monetarist-structuralis controversyHigginbotham, John P. January 1970 (has links)
No description available.
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Exploring the Dynamics of Damage Costs Inflation on Insurance Matters : An In-depth Regression Analysis on Macroeconomic VariablesLiljestrand, Jacob, Nyberg, Fredrik January 2023 (has links)
The aim of this thesis consist of three parts. Firstly, the aim was to developan accurate historical inflation index suitable for the insurance business, usinginformation about insurance matters. The calculated inflation index was compared to an in-house benchmark at the insurance company Gjensidige, it wasfound to be a good match. Secondly, to determine the best model for explainingthe Swedish CPI inflation shocks, the thesis employed Multi Linear, RandomForest and XGBoost Regression. Thirdly, feature importance estimation wasconducted to identify which macroeconomic variables that were the most important in explaining inflation. Also, a time lag analysis was implemented tobetter understand with what delay these features best explain the inflation. Theresults revealed that Random Forest and Multi Linear Regression were the mostsuitable model candidates in terms of performance and transparency based onthe available dataset. Furthermore, the study found that unemployment rate,interest rate, and energy were the most crucial features in explaining inflation.It was also found that features with a low time lag entailed a high importance.The belief is that the study’s findings can assist insurance companies in developing a more agile product pricing process and sharpen their awareness towardsimportant macroeconomic variables. Overall, this study can be a valuable resource for insurance companies seeking to avoid underwriting risk and gain abetter understanding of the inflation’s underlying drivers.
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Analysis of Undergraduate Grade Trends at Brigham Young University Across a 20-Year PeriodThompson, Kirsten Rose 01 May 2015 (has links) (PDF)
Grades awarded to undergraduate students at Brigham Young University over a 20-year period were analyzed to determine to what extent the mean GPA may have increased. Study variables included enrolled freshman mean ACT, enrolled freshman mean AP credits, faculty research productivity, student evaluations of teaching (SET), and a university policy change regarding course withdrawal dates and calculating students' mean GPA. Other study variables included the overall grading philosophy of the college or school (normative, mastery, or other) and the course level (upper division, lower division). The study employed a regression model with splines for the residual, or yearly trend. Upper division courses have higher mean GPA than lower division courses, and mean GPA in mastery-based grading colleges are higher than in normative-based grading colleges. Mean GPA in upper division courses are consistently higher than mean GPA of lower courses, regardless of college grouping, but the difference between the upper and lower division mean GPA scores of the normative-grading classification is significantly larger than the difference between upper and lower division mean GPA of the other two grading classifications. Faculty research productivity had no impact on mean GPA. SET scores are highly correlated with college grading philosophy and course level and did not further predict mean GPA. The university policy change had no statistically significant effect on most mean GPA, but there is a marginally significant negative local effect on mean GPA of the lower division normative courses, as well as a marginally significant positive effect on mean GPA of lower division mastery courses. Grade trends vary between colleges with differing grading philosophies. They also likely vary across departments within colleges and from course to course within departments. Trends also differ between course level. Except for the non-significant effect of the policy change, mean GPA trends across most categories at the university have leveled off for more than a decade and are likely to remain so. Study results indicate there is no reason for alarm and that no systemic, rampant pattern of grade inflation is evident.
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Essays on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Income DistributionMatamoros Romero, Guillermo Rufino 13 October 2023 (has links)
This dissertation is divided into three distinct chapters looking at the theoretical and empirical relationship between monetary policy, inflation, and income distribution in industrialized countries. The first chapter investigates the effect of monetary policy on the income share of workers at the industry level in Canada and the United States. The second chapter studies the relationship between firms' markups and inflation during the 2021-22 inflation surge in select industrialized countries. The third chapter assesses the Taylor-rule framework of monetary policy with regards to an estimated central bank reaction function for several industrialized countries, analyzing its potential effects on the rentier income share over time. This dissertation makes several contributions to the economic literature, particularly in the field of post-Keynesian empirical macroeconomics.
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