La présente recherche porte sur les relations de court terme entre les rendements boursiers et l'inflation au Canada. Les tests de l'hypothèse de Fisher, repris empiriquement par Fama et Schwert (1977) et Cozier et Rahman (1988), ainsi que l'examen des relations ex-post sont effectués sur des données trimestrielles. Le travail empirique a porté sur l'ensemble de la période allant de 1962 à 2015 et sur les sous-périodes avant et après l'introduction de la politique de ciblage de l'inflation par la Banque du Canada en 1991. Les bons du trésor à échéance dans trois mois et les modèles ARIMA sont mis à contribution pour estimer les composantes anticipée et non anticipée de l'inflation. L'hypothèse de Fisher n'est pas vérifiée au Canada sur l'ensemble de la période d'étude ; les corrélations entre les rendements nominaux et l'inflation anticipée sont négatives mais non significatives. L'effet de l'inflation anticipée et non anticipée sur les rendements réels entre 1962 et 2015 se distingue de celui qui a été mis en évidence dans les travaux antérieurs et lors de l'analyse de la sous-période avant l'introduction du ciblage de l'inflation. L'introduction du ciblage de l'inflation coïncide avec des changements dans les relations expost. L'inflation réalisée et rendements boursiers évoluaient en sens inverse avant l'introduction du ciblage de l'inflation de manière significative (rendements réels) ou non significative (rendements nominaux). Depuis le second trimestre de 1991, la relation empirique est positive avec un effet plus que proportionnelle de l'inflation réalisée sur les rendements boursiers. En situation de faible et stable inflation, les rendements boursiers permettent largement de se prémunir contre l'inflation réalisée.

Ce document a pour but de présenter la prévision de l’inflation à l’aide du modèle ARIMA et la Courbe de Phillips. Il est important de s’intéresser à ce sujet en tant qu’économiste, car c’est une variable macroéconomique essentielle qui influence les choix économiques et financiers. Plusieurs méthodes existent pour prévoir l’inflation dont le modèle ARIMA et la courbe de Phillips. Le modèle ARIMA est très robuste en ce sens qu’il englobe le processus autorégressif, la partie de différenciation et la composante de moyenne mobile. Cependant, la courbe de Phillips standard met en évidence la relation inverse entre l’inflation et le taux de chômage. Par ailleurs, la courbe de Phillips améliorée établit la relation inverse entre l’inflation et le taux de chômage et la relation positive entre l’inflation et le taux de de change et le taux d’intérêt de court terme. La méthode employée pour obtenir le modèle ARIMA est l’approche de Box-Jenkins. De plus, le meilleur modèle ARIMA obtenu de la série de l’inflation canadienne est ARIMA (3,1,2) pour les données mensuelles de l’inflation de 1971 à 2016. Le meilleur modèle observé est la courbe de Phillips améliorée. Cela est d’autant plus normale, car le Canada est une petite économie ouverte, et donc ces variables macroéconomiques dépendent en partie de la situation économique de l’extérieur. Néanmoins, la courbe de Phillips améliorée révèle que le taux de chômage influence en majeure partie le taux d’inflation. Nos résultats présentent des prévisions à la baisse du niveau d’inflation de 2017 à 2020, ce qui est conforme avec l’évolution des valeurs réalisées de l’inflation canadienne.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen M. Featherstone / Land is typically the highest value category of assets that farmers and ranchers have on their balance sheets. The value of land is affected by inflation. Understanding the effect of inflation on the land market helps farmers make better land pricing decisions and better asset management decisions. Using Treasury Bills and Farm Credit Bonds, future inflation expectations and agricultural risk premiums can be estimated. With the recent government stimulation of the economy and the resulting large amount of money infused into the economy, inflation is becoming an increasing concern with investors. Economic theory suggests that this infusion of money will affect future interest rates and ultimately the value of land given the inverse relationship between interest rates and the value of land. These lingering affects occur with the rise and fall of yield rates for Treasury Bills and Farm Credit bonds. Farm Credit bonds are sold at a premium over Treasury Bills. This premium indicates the market-assessed additional risk that farmers have to pay for their operating loans and other mortgages. Even though land values are affected by inflation, other things affect land values such as recreational use, development, and natural resource exploration. A combination of inflation and these other affects can greatly affect land prices.

A substantial amount of prior research has focused on the relation between Central Bank Independence (CBI) and inflation control. However, this research is mainly theoretical or conducted using cross-country statistical regressions and correlations in the developed world. Little attention has been given to understanding this relation in emerging nations or the influence of interest groups on CBI and inflation in a specific context. This thesis addresses both gaps by conducting an in-depth observation and analysis of this relation in a single country (Lebanon) and the influence of the banking sector on both CBI and inflation during a period of high inflation. This empirical evidence in the case of Lebanon shows that Central Bank Independence from the government – even though abundant and complete – was not enough to control inflation. The influence of the banking sector on both CBI and inflation was more important. This work makes a contribution to knowledge through highlighting the importance of national contexts when evaluating the CBI-inflation relation. Furthermore, this research extends our understanding of the literature and its gaps, and presents a new way to conduct in-depth studies in the field. Finally, it provides practical insights that are of importance to central bankers, especially in emerging nations.

The relation between the euro cash changeover and the perceived inflation in the Baltic countries Abstract This thesis focuses on the effect of euro cash changeover on inflation perception, and its relation to the inflation measured by central banks or by national statistical offices. We present an analyses of inflation gap in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania at the euro introduction and detect its determinants by econometric methods. We use Ordinary Least Squares, Random Effects Generalized Least Squares and Fixed Effects estimator. The thesis is divided into two main parts. The first part examines the theoretical background of perceived inflation and focuses at the phenomenon of increased inflation gap at the euro introduction. Second part contains an empirical study on inflation gap. We find out that perceived inflation in Baltic countries does not show such a divergence, as it was presented at the establishment of the Eurozone. Moreover, we find out that education and available income in general has a small, but evincible effect on inflation gap observed at euro introduction.

Inflation target was introduced in 2013 in Japan. The goal was to maintain price stability and sustainable inflation rate that is conducive to optimal consumption and investment decisions. However, Japanese inflation rate has been consistently below the target rate. We want to examine why the failure happens in such a big economy. This thesis focuses on inflation expectation as the main factor that leads to unanchored inflation. Inflation expectation can be distinguished into adaptive and rational expectation. To analyse inflation expectation, we regress inflation on four relevant variables: forecasted inflation, lagged inflation, economic slack and import inflation. Our goal is to identify the significance of forecasted inflation and lagged inflation, which are the main variables, to determine the characteristics of the two types of inflation expectation. This time-series analysis is on a monthly basis covering the period between 2013 and 2018. The results show that agents are near-rational rather than rational, meaning that they tend to overweigh the costs of inflation. Also, it is shown that they have minor but significant backward-looking tendency and believe that past inflation determines the current inflation. Hence, inflation expectation could give some useful insights into unanchored inflation.

by Janet Yin Yao Lai, David Tak Kong Leung. / Bibliography: leaf 78 / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1985

É possível partir estritamente de Marx para definir inflação? Em que pese não haver uma definição precisa em suas obras sobre tal fenômeno – até porque, em sua época, este não era uma preocupação econômica relevante – acredita-se que seu método e formulações teóricas são as que melhor possibilitam entender a realidade econômica complexa e seus fatos constitutivos. Não haveria de ser diferente com a inflação, e ela é entendida como o processo pelo qual a moeda legal se desvaloriza e passa a expressar uma quantidade menor de valor. A moeda perde poder de compra e passa adquirir menos produtos por causa dessa corrosão. Isto se reflete num aumento do nível geral de preços. A inflação deve ser entendida por esse prisma, e para trazer uma alternativa à interpretação deste fenômeno, faz-se necessário expor inicialmente a teoria monetária de Marx. Este é o objetivo central da tese: apresentar uma possibilidade de explicação para o fenômeno da variação de preços, sobretudo a inflação, numa perspectiva orgânica e histórica, tendo por base a teoria monetária marxiana. Para tanto, é preciso: i) elucidar a possibilidade de partir da teoria do valor para compreender tal fenômeno, sem abrir mão do rigor e sem capitular à crença de que a teoria de Marx é insuficiente para explicar os fenômenos contemporâneos; ii) apresentar argumentos teóricos que interpretem o processo pelo qual a inflação se transforma de um fenômeno esporádico a um convencional, rotineiro. Trabalha-se com as seguintes hipóteses: a) que o dinheiro no capitalismo é inequivocamente mercadoria, pois só assim os trabalhos privados são socialmente validados e a magnitude do valor pode ser devidamente expressa, e; b) que a inflação se deriva da desvalorização da moeda (meio de circulação) em referência ao dinheiro, logo, acontece por razões fundamentalmente monetárias. Quando este fenômeno ganha contornos irreversíveis e permanentes, ou seja, quando suas condições históricas estão plenamente desenvolvidas, assume sua forma crônica. A conclusão é que a inflação advém de mudanças de tipo-preço, especificamente desproporções monetárias com superavit líquido, em vez de mudanças de tipo-valor, como entende a maioria das interpretações autodenominadas marxistas. / Is it possible to start from Marx to define inflation? Although there is no precise definition in his works about such phenomenon – given that, at his time, that was not a relevant economic concern – it is believed that his method and theoretical formulations are the ones that best make possible understanding the complex economic reality and its internal facts. It would not be different with inflation, understood as the process by which the legal tender currency devalues and begins to express a smaller amount of value. The currency loses purchasing power and purchases fewer products because of this corrosion. That is reflected in an increase in general price levels. Inflation must be understood by this prism and, in order to bring an alternative to the interpretation of this phenomenon, it is necessary to expose initially the monetary theory of Marx. That is the main objective of the dissertation, to present a possibility of explanation for the phenomenon of price variation, especially inflation, from an organic and historical perspective, based on Marxian monetary theory. In order to do so, it is necessary to: (i) elucidate the possibility of starting from the theory of value in order to understand this phenomenon, without abandoning rigor and without surrendering to the belief that Marx's theory is insufficient to explain contemporary phenomena; (ii) present theoretical arguments that interpret the process by which inflation is transformed from a sporadic phenomenon to a conventional and routine. We work with the following hypotheses: a) that money in capitalism is commodity, unequivocally, because only then private works are socially validated and the magnitude of value can be duly expressed; b) that inflation derives from the devaluation of the currency (means of circulation) in reference to money, so it happens for fundamentally monetary reasons, and that when this phenomenon gains irreversible and permanent contours, that is, when its historical conditions are fully developed, takes its chronic form. The conclusion is that inflation comes from price-type changes, specifically monetary disproportions with net superavit, rather than value-type changes, as most self-described Marxist interpretations understand it.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how a current-looking Taylor rule explains the setting of the repo rate by the Riksbank between 1995-2018 vis-à-vis a forward-looking Taylor rule. Furthermore, we investigate whether the explanatory power of these rules change after the financial crisis. The implied Taylor rates are calculated using our own estimates of the natural rate of interest. These rates are then plotted on a graph creating a span of uncertainty in which the repo rate can be set between. Finally, we regress the repo rate on the Taylor rates. In this way, we examine which rule is more in line with the repo rate. The results showed that a forward-looking Taylor rule based on a varying real interest rate is more in line with the repo rate than the current-looking rule, both for the period as a whole and after 2008. The explanatory power of both rules decreases in the period following 2008.

<p>The Fisher Equation suggests that the spread between nominal and real interest rates is equal to the inflation expectations. In Sweden, where both nominal and inflation linked bonds exist the fisher equation implies that the yield spread could provide investors and policymakers with important information about markets inflation expectations. The aim of this thesis is therefore to estimate whether the yield spread between Swedish nominal and real interest rates - widely referred to as the Breakeven Inflation (BEI) - is a market based measure of inflation expectations. A sample based on historical bond prices between year 2000 and 2007 is used and adjusted for 3 distortions: i) The mismatch in cash flow structure arising from different bond characteristics. ii) The inflation indexation and bond finance implications (carry). iii) The seasonality in Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the absence of “true” inflation expectations, the benchmark used for the evaluation and comparison of the unadjusted and adjusted BEI series is the survey based, Prospera Money Market Players inflationary expectations, i.e. professional forecasters. The evaluation uses two statistical measures to estimate the errors, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to estimate the size of the forecast error and the Mean Error (ME) to measure the bias or the tendency for the forecast error to point in a particular direction. The general conclusion of the study is that both the unadjusted and the adjusted BEI series have improved significantly throughout the sample period as predictors of inflation expectations.</p><p>Further, in the first half of the sample, the MEs show that the BEI tends to underestimate inflation expectations, while in the second part of the sample the direction of the errors are less univocal. However, the carry adjusted and in some extent the carry and seasonality adjusted BEI seem to improve the BEI somewhat, although the conclusions are not very convincing. When using BEI to measure inflation expectations the conclusions should also be balanced against the possible bias associated with survey based expectations.</p>