Global ETD Search

1	Forecasting Swedish Output Growth: : An Empirical Comparison of MIDAS Regressions and theRAMSES Model Enocksson, David January 2012 (has links) This thesis compares MIDAS regressions, introduced in Ghysels, Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2002), to the RAMSES model, used by the Riksbank,in forecasting Swedish quarterly output growth (GDP). Using Swedish GPDdata from 1993Q1 and onwards, we compare forecasts for the period 2010Q1to 2011Q4, and we show that for longer forecast horizons (commonly usedby the Riksbank for monetary policy decisions), such as two and three yearsahead in time, the MIDAS regressions clearly outperforms the RAMSESmodel. For shorter horizons the results are not conclusive.KEYWORDS: MIDAS, GDP, forecasting, Sveriges Riksbank MIDAS GDP forecasting Sveriges Riksbank
2	Essays on exchange rates and central bank credibility / Maneschiöld, Per-Ola, January 2002 (has links) (PDF) Diss. Göteborg : Göteborgs universitet, 2002. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.
3	Swedish Breakeven Inflation (BEI) - a market based measure of inflation expectations? Calmvik, Jonas January 2008 (has links) <p>The Fisher Equation suggests that the spread between nominal and real interest rates is equal to the inflation expectations. In Sweden, where both nominal and inflation linked bonds exist the fisher equation implies that the yield spread could provide investors and policymakers with important information about markets inflation expectations. The aim of this thesis is therefore to estimate whether the yield spread between Swedish nominal and real interest rates - widely referred to as the Breakeven Inflation (BEI) - is a market based measure of inflation expectations. A sample based on historical bond prices between year 2000 and 2007 is used and adjusted for 3 distortions: i) The mismatch in cash flow structure arising from different bond characteristics. ii) The inflation indexation and bond finance implications (carry). iii) The seasonality in Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the absence of “true” inflation expectations, the benchmark used for the evaluation and comparison of the unadjusted and adjusted BEI series is the survey based, Prospera Money Market Players inflationary expectations, i.e. professional forecasters. The evaluation uses two statistical measures to estimate the errors, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to estimate the size of the forecast error and the Mean Error (ME) to measure the bias or the tendency for the forecast error to point in a particular direction. The general conclusion of the study is that both the unadjusted and the adjusted BEI series have improved significantly throughout the sample period as predictors of inflation expectations.</p><p>Further, in the first half of the sample, the MEs show that the BEI tends to underestimate inflation expectations, while in the second part of the sample the direction of the errors are less univocal. However, the carry adjusted and in some extent the carry and seasonality adjusted BEI seem to improve the BEI somewhat, although the conclusions are not very convincing. When using BEI to measure inflation expectations the conclusions should also be balanced against the possible bias associated with survey based expectations.</p> Inflation-Linked Bonds Index Linked Swedish Bonds Carry CPI Seasonality Sveriges Riksbank SNDO Prospera Inflation Expectations Economics Nationalekonomi
4	Swedish Breakeven Inflation (BEI) - a market based measure of inflation expectations? Calmvik, Jonas January 2008 (has links) The Fisher Equation suggests that the spread between nominal and real interest rates is equal to the inflation expectations. In Sweden, where both nominal and inflation linked bonds exist the fisher equation implies that the yield spread could provide investors and policymakers with important information about markets inflation expectations. The aim of this thesis is therefore to estimate whether the yield spread between Swedish nominal and real interest rates - widely referred to as the Breakeven Inflation (BEI) - is a market based measure of inflation expectations. A sample based on historical bond prices between year 2000 and 2007 is used and adjusted for 3 distortions: i) The mismatch in cash flow structure arising from different bond characteristics. ii) The inflation indexation and bond finance implications (carry). iii) The seasonality in Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the absence of “true” inflation expectations, the benchmark used for the evaluation and comparison of the unadjusted and adjusted BEI series is the survey based, Prospera Money Market Players inflationary expectations, i.e. professional forecasters. The evaluation uses two statistical measures to estimate the errors, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to estimate the size of the forecast error and the Mean Error (ME) to measure the bias or the tendency for the forecast error to point in a particular direction. The general conclusion of the study is that both the unadjusted and the adjusted BEI series have improved significantly throughout the sample period as predictors of inflation expectations. Further, in the first half of the sample, the MEs show that the BEI tends to underestimate inflation expectations, while in the second part of the sample the direction of the errors are less univocal. However, the carry adjusted and in some extent the carry and seasonality adjusted BEI seem to improve the BEI somewhat, although the conclusions are not very convincing. When using BEI to measure inflation expectations the conclusions should also be balanced against the possible bias associated with survey based expectations. Inflation-Linked Bonds Index Linked Swedish Bonds Carry CPI Seasonality Sveriges Riksbank SNDO Prospera Inflation Expectations Economics Nationalekonomi
5	Cash is [no longer] king: is an e-krona the answer? : - a de lege ferenda investigation of the Swedish Riksbank's issuing mandate and other legal callenges in relation to economic effects on the payment market Imamovic, Arnela January 2019 (has links) For the past decades, the Swedish public’s payment habits have changed, where the majority of the public has abandoned the old way of making payments, using cash, and instead opted for more modern payment solutions, digital money. The difference between cash and digital money is that cash is physical and only issued by the Riksbank, whereas digital money is created by and stored on accounts at commercial banks. The question of what role the state should have on the payment market is an important point of discussion. But it is not categorically a new question; the Swedish government is tackling essentially the same problem today as it has been doing many times before. Today’s problem is to some extent however manifested in a different way. During the 20th century, discussions were held whether or not the Riksbank should have the exclusive right to issue banknotes. It was considered unnecessary, inappropriate and dangerous. The idea that the Riksbank could cover the entire economy’s need for banknotes was, according to the commercial banks, unreasonable. Nonetheless, in 1904 the exclusive right became fait accompli; the government intervened and gave the Riksbank the banknote monopoly. We are now finding ourselves facing a similar situation, where there is a difference of opinion regarding the Riksbank’s role on the payment market. It is therefore nothing new, but rather an expected task for the government, and thus the central bank, to analyze major changes and draw conclusions from them. The problem is essentially about cash being phased out by digital means of payment. In order to therefore solve the problem, the Riksbank has started a project to investigate whether or not the Riksbank should issue digital cash to the Swedish public, what the Riksbank calls an e-krona. To introduce an e-krona would be a major step, but for the public to not have access to a government alternative, seeing as cash usage is declining, is also a major step. No decision has been made yet regarding whether the e-krona will be introduced on the market or not. A decision that however has been made, is that the Riksbank is now working on building an e-krona to develop and assess the technique. Nonetheless, an introduction would undoubtedly have consequences for both the Riksbank and the commercial banks, which ultimately means it would have effects on the economy as a whole. What about regulatory aspects; is the Riksbank even allowed to issue an e-krona under current legislation? The answer is affirmative, to a certain extent. There are furthermore many other uncertainties regarding how an e-krona would affect the economy; the Riksbank does not fully answer many of the system issues in its project reports. The question of whether or not it even is up to the Riksbank to make a decision on the matter of an introduction is also questioned by the author in the thesis. E-crown e-crown project central bank digital currency money cash banknotes and coins physical money tangibles currency legal tender the Swedish Riksbank Act commercial bank money digital money the Swedish Riksbank central bank commercial bank bank banking law law jurisprudence monetary policy safe and efficient payment system cash-provision economy the payment system digitalization development of society fractional reserve banking bank run zero lower bound E-krona e-kronaprojekt digital centralbankspeng pengar kontanter sedlar och mynt fysiska pengar valuta lagliga betalningsmedel affärsbankspengar digitala pengar Riksbanken centralbank affärsbank bank bankrätt juridik Lag (1988:1385) om Sveriges riksbank penningpolitik säkert och effektivt betalningsväsende kontantförsörjning ekonomi betalningssystemet digitalisering samhällsutveckling fractional reserve banking bankrusning zero lower bound Law and Society Juridik och samhälle

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