Thesis advisor: Jérôme Taillard / This paper studies the dynamics between levels of M&A activity (average transaction value and number of deals) and crises in seven Latin American countries from the period between 1990 through 2007. Two hypotheses are tested using regression analysis: (1) whether the level of M&A activity increases during crises due to the “bargain hypothesis,” due to the low valuation of target companies, or (2) whether M&A activity decreases due to the financial distress of potential buyers (“financing constraints” hypothesis) or the financial distress of potential targets (“loss of confidence” hypothesis). Analyses at the country and industry level show that the average transaction value of M&A deals decreases with every crisis. Support for the second hypothesis is found within the Manufacturing, Energy and Utilities industry, in which the number of deals increases. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2013. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

The present study explored the spatial and temporal demographic trends in oyster population dynamics and their relationships to freshwater inflows and the pathogen Dermo (Perkinsus marinus) on three reefs (Shell, Mad Island, and Sammy?s) in West Matagorda Bay, Texas. The objectives were to design and link three population models that simulate oyster population dynamics and integrate the environmental factors that influence growth, reproduction and settlement of larvae among these three reefs. The following variables were evaluated: relative abundance of oyster spat, submarket- and market-size oysters, average weighted incidence of Dermo and percent Dermo infection (prevalence) in submarket- and market-size oysters and their relationships to environmental variables of salinity, temperature, flow and distance from freshwater sources. Using a 30-month continuous dataset, environmental variables accounted for 36% of the variation in Dermo-related variables among the three reefs, and were also positively correlated with distance from freshwater sources. The relative abundance of spat and dead oysters was related to peaks in freshwater inflows occurring 30 days prior to larval settlement. Using these spatial and temporal relationships among biological and environmental variables, and data from five years of monitoring three reefs in Matagorda Bay, an integrated Stella model was developed that simulated oyster population responses to stochastic environmental changes over a 50-year period. Although the geological and structural complexity of each reef appeared to be similar, the model showed the relationship of growth, spawning and spat set were related to hydrologic variation between different reefs and time periods. The model revealed that up-estuary reefs relied on the distribution of larvae from down-estuary reefs following mortality related to freshwater inflow. The model also indicated that loss of freshwater inflows to down-estuary reefs resulted in higher sustained Dermo infections, thus loss of spawning potential and subsequent distribution of larvae to up-estuary reefs. The three oyster populations in West Matagorda Bay provide spawning connectivity and function as an integrated resource for sustaining all oyster reef populations in this bay system. The model presented in this research provides a basis for understanding the population dynamics of WMB as well as a better understanding of the interaction among the reefs that sustain these populations. The model developed in this investigation provides a basis for developing oyster population models for other bay systems and for future research regarding hydrologic influences on oyster population dynamics.

Environmental flows are important to maintain the ecological integrity of the estuary. In a watershed, it is influenced by land use land cover (LULC) change, climate variability, and water regulations. San Antonio, Texas, the 8th largest city in the US, is likely to affect environmental flows to the San Antonio Bay/Guadalupe Estuary, due to rapid urbanization. Time series analysis was conducted at several stream gauging stations to assess trends in hydrologic variables. A bootstrapping method was employed to estimate the critical value for global significance. Results suggested a greater number of trends are observed than are expected to occur by chance. Stream gauging stations present in lower half of the watershed experienced increasing trend, whereas upper half experienced decreasing trends. A similar spatial pattern was not observed for rainfall. Winter season observed maximum number of trends. Wavelet analysis on hydrologic variables, suggested presence of multi-scale temporal variability; dominant frequencies in 10 to 15 year scale was observed in some of the hydrologic variables, with a decadal cycle. Dominant frequencies were also observed in 17 to 23 year scale with repeatability in 20 to 30 years. It is therefore important to understand various ecological processes that are dominant in this scale and quantify possible linkages among them. Genetic algorithm (GA) was used for calibration of the Hydrologic Simulation Program in FORTRAN (HSPF) model. Although, GA is computationally demanding, it is better than manual calibration. Parameter values obtained for the calibrated model had physical representation and were well within the ranges suggested in the literature. Information from LANDSAT images for the years 1987, 1999, and 2003 were introduced to HSPF to quantify the impact of LULC change on environmental flows. Modeling studies indicated, with increase in impervious surface, peak flows increased over the years. Wavelet analysis pointed, that urbanization also impacted storage. Modeling studies quantified, on average about 50% of variability in freshwater inflows could be attributed to variation in precipitation, and approximately 10% of variation in freshwater inflows could be attributed to LULC change. This study will help ecologist, engineers, scientist, and politicians in policy making pertinent to water resources management.

This study analyzes the effect of capital outflows on economic growth though the channels described in sudden stop literature. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach / it is found that there is a cointegration between capital inflows, real exchange rate and real GDP. The results show that there is a significant positive long-run relation between capital inflows and growth. It is also found that capital inflows affect real output in the short run. The results show that real exchange rate is not a significant determinant of real output both in the short run and long run. Moreover, in order to capture the dynamic responses, a vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology has been employed. The results show that a negative innovation in capital inflows causes real exchange rate depreciation and output contraction.

The present study explored the spatial and temporal demographic trends in oyster population dynamics and their relationships to freshwater inflows and the pathogen Dermo (Perkinsus marinus) on three reefs (Shell, Mad Island, and Sammy?s) in West Matagorda Bay, Texas. The objectives were to design and link three population models that simulate oyster population dynamics and integrate the environmental factors that influence growth, reproduction and settlement of larvae among these three reefs. The following variables were evaluated: relative abundance of oyster spat, submarket- and market-size oysters, average weighted incidence of Dermo and percent Dermo infection (prevalence) in submarket- and market-size oysters and their relationships to environmental variables of salinity, temperature, flow and distance from freshwater sources. Using a 30-month continuous dataset, environmental variables accounted for 36% of the variation in Dermo-related variables among the three reefs, and were also positively correlated with distance from freshwater sources. The relative abundance of spat and dead oysters was related to peaks in freshwater inflows occurring 30 days prior to larval settlement. Using these spatial and temporal relationships among biological and environmental variables, and data from five years of monitoring three reefs in Matagorda Bay, an integrated Stella model was developed that simulated oyster population responses to stochastic environmental changes over a 50-year period. Although the geological and structural complexity of each reef appeared to be similar, the model showed the relationship of growth, spawning and spat set were related to hydrologic variation between different reefs and time periods. The model revealed that up-estuary reefs relied on the distribution of larvae from down-estuary reefs following mortality related to freshwater inflow. The model also indicated that loss of freshwater inflows to down-estuary reefs resulted in higher sustained Dermo infections, thus loss of spawning potential and subsequent distribution of larvae to up-estuary reefs. The three oyster populations in West Matagorda Bay provide spawning connectivity and function as an integrated resource for sustaining all oyster reef populations in this bay system. The model presented in this research provides a basis for understanding the population dynamics of WMB as well as a better understanding of the interaction among the reefs that sustain these populations. The model developed in this investigation provides a basis for developing oyster population models for other bay systems and for future research regarding hydrologic influences on oyster population dynamics.

The first essay explores the dynamic behaviors of mortgage-backed stock returns and their volatility spillovers within the framework of time-varying symmetric, asymmetric and multivariate GARCH-family models. The focus of the chapter is on the dynamics of volatility of the U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) and volatility spillovers within the REITs subdivisions as well as between the REITs and the Fannie Mae (FNM) and theFreddie Mac (FRE) mortgage-backed stocks. We analyze risk-return linkages using the GARCH-in-mean (GARCH-M) model. The presence of asymmetric effects of "bad" news and "good" news on conditional financial volatilities is evaluated using the Threshold ARCH (TARCH) model and the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model. Volatility spillovers and comovements within REITs subdivisions; REITs with FNM and FRE and other selected financial assets are examined using the multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) model. The second essay investigates factors behind the existence of time-varying conditional volatilities of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This is done by analyzing the impacts of economic volatilities on mortgage-backed financial markets' performance. The relationship between conditional volatilities of the MBS and conditional volatilities of the key economic fundamentals in the housing sector and the macroeconomy are explored. The sensitivity of mortgage-backed stocks to the underlying time-series changes in economic fundamentals, and the extent to which economic volatilities explain the variation in mortgage-backed stocks' volatilities are investigated. Particularly, we examined whether changes in the REITs, FNM and FRE volatilities are linked to and driven by time-varying volatilities of the housing sector economic activity and set of key macroeconomic variables. Thus, the chapter analyzes the impacts of conditional economic volatilities on the conditional volatilities of the REITs, FRE and FNM stocks. The GARCH (p, q) process is used to find conditional volatility dynamics for the economic variables in the study. Then we employ multivariate GARCH (p, q) model to investigate the spillovers and comovements among the conditional economic fundamentals' volatilities and the conditional volatilities of the MBS. The third essay explores the impacts of foreign sector of the economy on the mortgage-backed financial markets and the housing sector. There is large surge of foreign capital flows to the U.S, particularly since late 1990s. The net foreign holdings of U.S. financial assets have become very significant in the U.S. Treasury notes and bonds. Foreign investors also hold a growing share of securities of the U.S. agencies and government sponsored enterprises (GSEs). Similarly, foreign direct investment in the U.S. real estate as well as real estate equities in the form of REITs has grown sharply. To this end, a multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model is the main tool of analysis. Based on the VAR model, generalized impulse response functions and generalized variance decompositions are employed to evaluate the responses of mortgage interest rates and Treasury yields to the changes in net foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries and agency bonds.

Magister Artium (Development Studies) - MA(DVS) / Remittances inflows have gradually become one of the major sources of external financial inflows to developing countries. As a result, research abounds on the developmental effects of remittances in the home countries of migrants. At the micro level, recipients of remittances are more likely to have better access to quality health care, education as well as start-up fund for their own businesses. On the other hand at the macro level, remittances inflows can help increase the credit worthiness of countries by enabling them to use future remittances inflows as collateral for loans. Additionally, remittances inflows as a source of foreign exchange can be used by countries to fund import bills. Although there has been a surge of scholarship on remittances, this scholarship seems to be concentrated on the economic study of migration instead of the macroeconomic aspects of remittances. Furthermore, comparative studies on these macroeconomic aspects of remittances especially on African countries are underresearched and remains at the backwaters of academic study. Using quantitative time series data, this research seeks to do a comparative study on the countercyclical nature of remittances in four selected West African countries (Cameroon, Cape Verde, Nigeria and Senegal). The research used descriptive trend analysis, autocorrelation and an ARMAX model analyse the research problem. After critical analysis on whether remittances are countercyclical or not using the 2009 global financial crisis as a reference year in these four countries, it was found that, remittance inflows to Cameroon, Cape Verde, Nigeria and Senegal were pro-cyclical in nature. Moreover, in analysing the relationship between remittances inflows and gross domestic product (economic growth) the research revealed that there was a positive relationship between remittances inflows and economic growth for the four countries (Cameroon, Cape Verde, Nigeria and Senegal) observed. One recommendation given from this study is that, there is the need for remittances inflows to be invested in productive activities. This is because even if remittances continue to increase, without its investment in productive sectors, it cannot have any meaningful impact on economic growth in these countries.

Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) into Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) between 2000 and 2014 remained a minute fraction (at only 2% and 1% respectively) of global inflows. This study seeks to explain this phenomenon by examining the push (global) and pull (domestic) factors that may help to explain inflows of FDI and FPI in SSA and the mechanisms through which these factors affect inflows (the how). As ongoing regional integration efforts in Africa through trading blocs, the study also discusses the role of regional trading blocs in explaining capital flows into SSA. In the process, the research challenges some of the established theories and contributes to policy for managing international capital inflows. The study identifies possible explanatory variables from existing theory and empirical studies. Data on possible determinants of FDI and FPI is largely extracted from the World Bank and IMF databases. The determinants considered are macro-economic, infrastructural, institutional, resource endowment and geographical related. These are modeled into econometric model of FDI and FPI. Several hypotheses on the possible determinants are then tested using panel regressions with random effects. The results indicate that SSA's FDI during the period reviewed is mainly pulled by macroeconomic dynamics, infrastructure and human resources factors and pushed by global macroeconomic performance. Likewise, FPI is largely pulled by GDP and infrastructure factors. The results further show that FDI and FPI inflows in regional trading blocs of SADC, COMESA and ECOWAS are affected by different risk, return, macroeconomic, trade and distance factors. The effects of factors such as distance and macroeconomic factors also vary across the regional trading blocs, suggesting their importance of these blocs in capital flows.

No description available.

The purpose of this paper is to build a model that incorporates current data of Africa, both regarding risks and opportunities into a strategic framework that should enable a more informed foreign direct investment decision for multinational enterprises (MNEs). The parameters used in the model were carefully chosen as determinants to foreign direct investment (FDI) based on extensive literature reviews. The model currently covers 101 major cities in 40 African countries. The model calculates and ranks indexes of African cities in terms of prospective investment opportunities. It is a general model with the flexibility of adapting to the user’s specific needs, since they can be highly heterogeneous depending on the industry and the type of to FDI considers. To test the validity of the model, standardized weights were used and the results were compared to current reports of FDI inflows to Africa. The results given by the model were to some extent compliable with the result of current FDI inflows, which thereby can be seen as sign of validity.