This thesis focuses on the dynamics of benefit receipt in the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) using individual-level administrative data from 2003 to 2013. This thesis is comprised of three self-contained essays. The first essay examines the dynamics of disability benefit receipt in Ontario. A five-year cohort analysis is carried out for those who first received disability benefits in any year between 2004 and 2009 to estimate the proportion exiting from such benefits within five years of first benefit receipt. This analysis is extended to type of exit (e.g., died, moved, or disqualified) and nature of exit (e.g., sustained or temporary). We find that only about 18 percent of benefit recipients exit, most within one and a half years of initial benefit receipt, and that more than one-third of those who exit return within five years. Recipients are both less likely to exit and more likely to return if single, divorced, or widowed rather than married or living common law, if they have children, or if they have mental rather than physical disabilities. The second essay identifies factors that influence ODSP benefits duration. We employ a flexible parametric technique to investigate the duration of disability benefit receipt. We also employ cure models to account for the proportion of recipients that never exit ODSP over the ten-year sample period. Of the whole sample, 20 percent of recipients completed a first spell and the remaining 80 percent were right censored. We find that time spent receiving ODSP benefits is negatively associated with education and positively associated with both age and severity of disability. Individuals who are single, divorced, separated, widowed, or immigrants have longer benefit spells as compared to those who are married, common law, and Canadian born. Individuals with children also spend longer time on ODSP than those relative without children. We provide evidence that recipient characteristics are associated with different probabilities of exiting or re-entering ODSP; that suggests that differentiated, and not ‘one size fit all’, policies are required to facilitate transitions from program dependence to economic independence. The third essay analyzes differences in the benefit receipt rates by immigration status and age. A flexible parametric duration analysis is employed to investigate how age at entry into benefits interacted with immigration status and, for immigrants, how age at arrival in Canada affects the exit rate from disability support. We find strong evidence of differences in age-dependence of benefit receipt and exit rates across immigration status categories. At younger (18-34) and middle (35-54) ages the Canadian-born have much higher benefit receipt rates than immigrants but lower rates at older (55 and over) ages. We speculate that the difference at younger and middle ages can be explained largely by the “healthy immigrant effect” (i.e., a selection effect of relatively healthier immigrants) and at older ages by differential eligibility for, and expected income from, alternative benefit programs such as the Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security, and the Guaranteed Income Supplement. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

This thesis complements current studies by focusing on developed OECD countries as they are the major sources and recipients of world FDI and current studies relating to developed countries using aggregate country FDI data are limited. This study empirically tests the determinants of FDI inflows and outflows and their relationship with economic growth using 2SLS simultaneous equations model between 1981 and 2008 for a sample of 20 developed OECD countries. The empirical findings suggest that FDI inflows do not contribute to economic growth in the host country and economic growth positively affects FDI inflows. In addition, trade openness and flexible employment protection legislation in the host country attract FDI inflows. In terms of FDI outflows, the results show that FDI outflows reduce economic growth in the home country, while economic growth in the home country increases FDI outflows. Moreover, high past level of outward FDI stock, trade openness, low labour cost and currency depreciation in the home country provide incentives for domestic firms to invest abroad. Therefore, this study does not support offering special incentives to foreign investors to attract FDI inflows or offering promotional policies to domestic firms to encourage FDI outflows. Instead, government should provide incentives for domestic investment and other sound policies to increase economic growth, which in itself provides a good environment to attract FDI inflows and to encourage FDI outflows. Keywords: FDI inflows, FDI outflows, two stage least squares simultaneous equations, economic growth, labour market flexibility.

O planejamento da operação energética em sistemas hidrotérmicos de potência com um único reservatório tem como objetivo determinar a participação de usinas hidrelétricas e térmicas de forma a garantir o suprimento de energia demandada ao menor custo operacional possível, dentro de restrições físicas e técnicas do modelo. Alguns fatores tornam a solução deste problema bastante complexa destacando a não linearidade e a não separabilidade temporal aditiva. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar uma nova abordagem com tratamento agregado das afluências, descrevendo uma nova caracterização das distribuições de probabilidades e um novo modelo para a programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana. Nesse novo modelo da programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana, agregações plurimensais de vazões são utilizadas como entrada em um modelo de programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana modificado para discretizações temporais plurimensais. A nova abordagem proposta foi simulada em diferentes usinas hidrelétricas brasileiras localizadas em diferentes regiões geográficas e sob diferentes regimes hidrológicos. Os resultados das simulações feitas com a utilização deste novo modelo são apresentados e comparados ao modelo de programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana mensal, atualmente utilizado no setor elétrico brasileiro, com economia de custos relativas superiores a 10% em alguns casos. / The energetic operation planning on hydrothermal power systems with a single reservoir aims to determine the participation of hydroelectric power plants and thermal power plants to guaranty supply of energy demanded with the smallest possible cost, under physical and technical model boundaries. Some points became the solution of this problem complex, highlighting the non linearity and the additive non time separability. The objective of this paper is show the new approach with aggregated inflows, describing a new probability distributions featuring and a new model for the markovian stochastic dynamic programming. On this new model of markovian stochastic dynamic programming, multi monthly inflow aggregations are used as input in a model of markovian stochastic dynamic programming modified for multi months discretizations. The new approach proposed was simulated on differents Brazilian hydroelectric power plants located on different regions and under different hydrologic regime. The results of simulations using this new model are presented and compared to the model of monthly markovian dynamic programming, nowadays used on the Brazilian electrical sector, with relatives economic savings up to 10% in some cases.

O planejamento da operação energética em sistemas hidrotérmicos de potência com um único reservatório tem como objetivo determinar a participação de usinas hidrelétricas e térmicas de forma a garantir o suprimento de energia demandada ao menor custo operacional possível, dentro de restrições físicas e técnicas do modelo. Alguns fatores tornam a solução deste problema bastante complexa destacando a não linearidade e a não separabilidade temporal aditiva. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar uma nova abordagem com tratamento agregado das afluências, descrevendo uma nova caracterização das distribuições de probabilidades e um novo modelo para a programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana. Nesse novo modelo da programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana, agregações plurimensais de vazões são utilizadas como entrada em um modelo de programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana modificado para discretizações temporais plurimensais. A nova abordagem proposta foi simulada em diferentes usinas hidrelétricas brasileiras localizadas em diferentes regiões geográficas e sob diferentes regimes hidrológicos. Os resultados das simulações feitas com a utilização deste novo modelo são apresentados e comparados ao modelo de programação dinâmica estocástica markoviana mensal, atualmente utilizado no setor elétrico brasileiro, com economia de custos relativas superiores a 10% em alguns casos. / The energetic operation planning on hydrothermal power systems with a single reservoir aims to determine the participation of hydroelectric power plants and thermal power plants to guaranty supply of energy demanded with the smallest possible cost, under physical and technical model boundaries. Some points became the solution of this problem complex, highlighting the non linearity and the additive non time separability. The objective of this paper is show the new approach with aggregated inflows, describing a new probability distributions featuring and a new model for the markovian stochastic dynamic programming. On this new model of markovian stochastic dynamic programming, multi monthly inflow aggregations are used as input in a model of markovian stochastic dynamic programming modified for multi months discretizations. The new approach proposed was simulated on differents Brazilian hydroelectric power plants located on different regions and under different hydrologic regime. The results of simulations using this new model are presented and compared to the model of monthly markovian dynamic programming, nowadays used on the Brazilian electrical sector, with relatives economic savings up to 10% in some cases.

This thesis analyzes the interactions between domestic credit expansion, capital inflows and current account imbalances in a framework of empirical models carried out for Brazil and Turkey. In this context, three vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified covering the time period between January 2002 and March 2012 for Brazil and 2003 January and 2012 March for Turkey. Real effective exchange rate (REER) and relative yield spreads formed with country specific Embi + indexes are also included in the estimations of the models. The analyses of the models show that capital inflows in these countries trigger the domestic credit expansion which create an upward pressure on import demands and affect current account balances negatively. The results support the implementation of domestic credit tightening policies to reduce the current account imbalances in these countries.

Blue crabs are a widely distributed estuarine species with broad economic and ecological importance. Several studies have linked blue crabs to freshwater inflows, but the precise nature of this link is still uncertain, as blue crabs have a complex life cycle that utilizes both marine and estuarine environments. One potential link between blue crabs and freshwater inflows is during recruitment, when megalopae developing offshore return to estuaries before molting into juvenile crabs. Megalopae swim during the flood tide to ensure delivery into and farther up estuaries. The behaviors regulating selective tidal stream transport (STST) on the flood tide were originally studied in North Carolina in an estuary with regular freshwater inflows and a strong salinity gradient. The model of STST was re-examined in the Mission-Aransas, an estuary with episodic freshwater inflows and salinity gradients ranging from normal estuarine conditions to hypersaline during droughts. The behavioral responses of megalopae to a range of rates of salinity increase were tested, and then modeled onto rates of salinity change observed in the field to determine the theoretical ecological consequences of STST for blue crab populations in the Mission-Aransas Estuary. To validate the ecological trends predicted by the behavioral model of STST, a simple, long-term data set reflecting changes in megalopae abundance is needed. Hog’s hair collectors are a simple and widely used method of quantifying abundance of brachyuran megalopae, including blue crabs. However, the efficiency of hog’s hair collectors in sampling for megalopae is unknown. Several studies have reported poor correlations between settlement on hog’s hair collectors, transport, and abundance of megalopae in the plankton due to disparate temporal scales and potentially turbulence-driven decoupling. Each of these issues were addressed in field and flume experiments, which were used to develop a model for interpreting settlement on hog’s hair collectors in terms of transport and planktonic abundance. / text

This thesis complements current studies by focusing on developed OECD countries as they are the major sources and recipients of world FDI and current studies relating to developed countries using aggregate country FDI data are limited. This study empirically tests the determinants of FDI inflows and outflows and their relationship with economic growth using 2SLS simultaneous equations model between 1981 and 2008 for a sample of 20 developed OECD countries. The empirical findings suggest that FDI inflows do not contribute to economic growth in the host country and economic growth positively affects FDI inflows. In addition, trade openness and flexible employment protection legislation in the host country attract FDI inflows. In terms of FDI outflows, the results show that FDI outflows reduce economic growth in the home country, while economic growth in the home country increases FDI outflows. Moreover, high past level of outward FDI stock, trade openness, low labour cost and currency depreciation in the home country provide incentives for domestic firms to invest abroad. Therefore, this study does not support offering special incentives to foreign investors to attract FDI inflows or offering promotional policies to domestic firms to encourage FDI outflows. Instead, government should provide incentives for domestic investment and other sound policies to increase economic growth, which in itself provides a good environment to attract FDI inflows and to encourage FDI outflows. Keywords: FDI inflows, FDI outflows, two stage least squares simultaneous equations, economic growth, labour market flexibility.

意大利和台灣都有著典型的成熟經濟體的問題：人口老齡化，低生育率和長期勞工短缺，而這一切結合起來，便促使外籍勞工輸入到這個系統中。目前的研究是試圖找出台灣與義大利，兩個大規模移民 移入國，如何應證了這一新現象，透過分析它們各自的移民政策型態，發現交集和差異可以歸因於不同的經濟，政治和社會情況。 這項工作被劃分成數個章節，從一般到特殊。第一，解釋的目的和方法;第二，一個文學評論;第三和第四，分析意大利和台灣的情況;而最後兩章進行比較並得出結論。採用的方法是內容分析和歷史背景，利用定量和定性數據：前者是從初級和次級來源提取，從非結構化的與移民社區和移民機關面談。從這個研究的結果，很明顯，這兩個國家在他們各自的社會和經濟結構的變化都有不同的反應：緊急立法是比較典型的意大利決策，而規劃則是台灣的特徵。在這兩種情況下，國際政治都在影響政策的形成扮演了重要的角色：義大利作為一個已建立的超國家的一部分，歐盟，在立法上允許更多的授權;同時台灣在外交孤立與不安的兩岸關係上，則不得不更謹慎的規劃。 / Italy and Taiwan share common problems typical of mature economies: an aging population, a low fertility rate and a chronic labour shortage, which all combined have prompted the importation of foreign workers into their systems. The present research is an attempt to find out how the two countries – both latecomers in mass immigration – have coped with this new phenomenon, by analysing their respective immigration policy formations to uncover confluences and disparities that can be attributed to different economic, political and social circumstances. The work is divided in chapters that elaborate from the general to the particular. The first one explains purpose and methodology; the second one is a literary review; the third and fourth ones analyse the cases of Italy and Taiwan; and the final two chapters make comparisons and draw conclusions. The methods adopted are content analysis and historical background, making use of quantitative and qualitative data: the former are extracted from primary and secondary sources, the latter from unstructured interviews with migrant communities and authorities. From the results of this research, it is apparent that the two countries have responded differently to their respective social and economic structural changes: emergency legislation was more typical of the Italian policy-making, while planning characterised the Taiwanese attitude. In both cases international politics has played a major role in shaping policy formation: being part of an established supra-national formation such the EU allowed for more deferring and delegating in legislation; while being diplomatically isolated with a troubled cross-strait relationship compelled to a more cautious programming.

During the work of this research project we were interested in mathematical techniques that give us an insight to the following questions: How do we understand the trading decisions made by a manager of a hedge fund and what influences these decisions? In what way does an illiquid market affect these decisions and the performance of the fund? And how does the payment scheme affect the investor's decisions? Based on existing work on hedge fund management, we start with a fund that can be modelled with one risky investment and one riskless investment. Next, subject to the hedge fund special reward scheme we maximise the expected utility of wealth of the manager, by controlling the percentage invested in the risky investment, namely the portfolio. We use stochastic control techniques to derive a partial differential equation (PDE) and numerically obtain its corresponding viscosity solution, which provides a weak notion of solutions to these PDEs. This is then taken to a liquidity constrained scenario, to compare the behaviour of the two scenarios. Using the same approach as before we notice that due to the liquidity restriction we cannot use a simple model to combine the risky and riskless investments as a total amount, and hence the PDE is one order higher than before. We then model an investor who is investing in the hedge fund subject to the manager's optimal portfolio decisions, with similar mathematical tools as before. Comparisons between the investor's expected utility of wealth and the utility of having the money invested in the risk-free investment suggests that, in some cases, the investor is paying more to the manager than the return he is receiving for having invested in the hedge fund, compared to a risk-free investment. For that reason we propose a strategic game where the manager's action is to allocate the money between the two assets and the investor's action is to add money to the fund when he expects profit. The result is that the investor profits from the option to reinvest in the fund, although in some extreme cases the actions of the manager make the investor receive a negative value for having the option.

Οι Άμεσες Ξένες Επενδύσεις (Α.Ξ.Ε.) θεωρούνται ως ένα σημαντικό εργαλείο στη διαδικασία της παγκοσμιοποίησης και διαδραματίζουν έναν κρίσιμο ρόλο στην ανάπτυξη των οικονομιών πολλών χωρών, μέσω της βελτίωσης της υποδομής τους, των τεχνικών τους δεξιοτήτων, των ικανοτήτων των επιχειρηματιών και των οικονομικών πόρων, αναφορικά με τα έσοδα της κυβέρνησης και το ξένο συνάλλαγμα. Η παρούσα εργασία εκπονείται με απώτερο σκοπό να εξετάσει κατά πόσο α) ο πραγματικός κατά κεφαλήν ρυθμός ανάπτυξης του Α.Ε.Π., β) ο ετήσιος ρυθμός πληθωρισμού, γ) το ποσοστό ανεργίας, δ) ο υφιστάμενος αριθμός των τηλεφωνικών γραμμών ανά 100 κατοίκους, ε) το εργατικό δυναμικό που κατέχει δευτεροβάθμια εκπαίδευση καθώς και στ) το ονομαστικό κόστος εργασίας, επηρεάζουν τις εισροές Άμεσων Ξένων Επενδύσεων στις χώρες που βρίσκονται α) στην Ε.Ε. – 27, β) στην Ευρωζώνη καθώς και γ) στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση αλλά εκτός Ευρώ, αναφορικά με τα έτη 2002 – 2010. Αναλυτικότερα, η τρέχουσα μελέτη αποτελείται από πέντε κεφάλαια καθώς και από ένα παράρτημα. Κατ’ αρχάς, το πρώτο (1ο) κεφάλαιο εξετάζει ορισμένες βασικές έννοιες της διεθνούς επιχειρηματικής δραστηριότητας. Εν συνεχεία, στο δεύτερο (2ο) κεφάλαιο, παρουσιάζονται οι έξι προαναφερθέντες προσδιοριστικοί παράγοντες, οι οποίοι είναι ικανοί να εξηγήσουν την επένδυση των Πολυεθνικών Επιχειρήσεων σε μια δεδομένη τοποθεσία. Επιπροσθέτως, στο τρίτο (3ο) κεφάλαιο, αναλύονται τα υποδείγματα εκείνα που στηρίζονται σε πάνελ δεδομένα. Στο τέταρτο (4ο) κεφάλαιο, δε, πραγματοποιείται η εμπειρική ανάλυση με τη βοήθεια του στατιστικού πακέτου, STATA και ταυτόχρονα, διαφαίνονται τα αντίστοιχα αποτελέσματα αυτής, αναφορικά με τη σχέση των εισροών Α.Ξ.Ε. και των εξεταστέων παραγόντων, σε κάθε μια ομάδα χωρών (Ε.Ε. – 27, χώρες Ευρωζώνης και χώρες εκτός Ευρώ) ξεχωριστά, κατά τα έτη 2002 – 2010. Στη συνέχεια, στο πέμπτο (5ο) κεφάλαιο της παρούσας εργασίας, παρουσιάζονται τα συμπεράσματα που εκπίπτουν από τη συγκεκριμένη ανάλυση και παράλληλα, δίδονται ορισμένες ενδιαφέρουσες προτάσεις για μελλοντική έρευνα. Εν κατακλείδι, η τρέχουσα μελέτη ολοκληρώνεται με την εισαγωγή ενός παραρτήματος, το οποίο αποτελεί ένα συνοπτικά χρήσιμο εγχειρίδιο εντολών του πακέτου STATA και ίσως συμβάλλει στην κατανόηση και εξυπηρέτηση του εκάστοτε χρήστη αυτού. / Foreign Direct Investment (F.D.I.) is considered as an important tool in the process of globalization and plays a crucial role in the development of economies of many countries, by improving the quality of their infrastructure, their technical skills, entrepreneur capabilities and financial resources, in terms of government revenues and foreign exchange. This dissertation takes part in order to examine whether a) Real G.D.P. Growth Rate per Capita, b) Annual Inflation Rate (Inflation is measured by the Annual Growth Rate of the G.D.P. Deflator), c) Unemployment Rate (Total Unemployment as a percentage of Total Labor Force), d) Telephone Lines per 100 people, e) Labor Force with Secondary Education and f) Nominal Labor Cost (Labor Cost Index, Nominal Value – Annual Data), affect F.D.I. inflows a) in the 27 European Union member countries, b) in the Eurozone countries and c) in the Non – Eurozone countries, during the period 2002 – 2010. Specifically, this study consists of five chapters and an appendix. First of all, the first (1st) chapter examines concepts relevant to the international business activity. Moreover, the second (2nd) chapter presents the above six determinants of Foreign Direct Investment, which is able to explain the establishment of MNEs in a specific location. Furthermore, the third (3rd) chapter concerns those models based on panel data. Τhe fourth (4th) chapter incorporates the empirical analysis, using the statistical package, STATA, and simultaneously, its corresponding results, regarding the relationship between F.D.I. inflows and their possible six determinants, in each group of countries separately (E.U. – 27 member countries, Eurozone and Non – Eurozone countries), during the period 2002 – 2010. Moreover, the fifth (5th) chapter shows the final results, which are extracted from the specific analysis and at the same time, it provides some interesting proposals for further research. Finally, this study is completed with the introduction of an annex, which is a useful manual of STATA commands and perhaps, make users become more convenient and confident with this package.