The economic efficiency of water development in Utah, including transfer systems, has seldom been examined, nor has the costs of public policies which result in deviations from efficient allocations. In order that public officials be better informed about water allocations , the present effort examines the efficient allocation of water in time frames up to 2020 under several alternative assumptions and calculates the cost of alternative policies. Us ing mathematical programming techniques, a computer mode l is developed to determine the supply (marginal cost) and demand (value of marginal product) relationships for agricultural water, given depletions for municipal and industrial (M & I) and wetland requirements. The model maximizes net profit per acre t o an average agriculturalist in each of ten study areas in Utah. Proposed interbasin transfers and their costs are included in supply. The optimal solution gene rated is an efficient allocation, since maximization of net profits occurs only when value of marginal product equals marginal cost. The requirements for M & I water are projected into the future using trending and probable industrial development. An efficient allocation (optimal solution) is generated by the model f or 1965, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 20 20. Th e timing of investments in water distribution systems can be determined from these solutions. Using alternative assumptions about policies (minimum inflows to Great Salt Lake and water salvage) several alternative temporal distributions are determined. Additionally, the effect of restrictions on groundwater pumping (present levels of storage must be maintained) are examined. The costs to users in higher supply curves (marginal costs) are approximated by areas between supply curves. In addition, losses to agricultural users from diminished efficient new production can be approximated. The critical factors in large proposed water transfers in Utah appear to be the growth of M & I requirements along the Wasatch Front, particularly in the Jordan River Basin. Sufficient water is available in the Colorado River Basins to provide maximum transfers, full oil shale and power generation development, and efficient agricultural production. Restrictions on groundwater pumping and water salvage in the Jordan River Basin and maintenance of high inflows to Great Salt Lake make transfers necessary sooner. The costs of such restrictions approaches 25 percent of the total investment by agriculture in transfer systems. If no r e strictions are made, but investment in these systems occurs now, a loss of foregone returns to alternative investment equal to about 70 percent of the total agricultural investment is incurred by society.

Experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model using idealized topographies were run to investigate aspects of the role that the lateral ocean constraints play in the climate. The experiments consider an idealized planet covered with a constant deep ocean, where one-grid-wide land barriers were gradually added. The series of experiments allowed the investigation of many aspects of the coupled system equilibrium and variability, ending with an evaluation of the effects of the Indonesian Throughflow. Rather than to investigate the throughflow\'s impacts in modern climate, which has been largely explored in numerical experiments in the past decades, the throughflow is investigated in an alternative climate, argued as a possible scenario during ice-age periods. It was found that the change in the hemispheric water source of the throughflow affects many aspects of its impact as it is known for modern climate. In summary, the throughflow acts within the inter-basin seesaw in the sense to restore the previous phase of the inter-basin seesaw. / Experimentos com um modelo acoplado oceano-continente-atmosfera-gelo marinho e topografias idealizadas foram empregados para investigar os impactos que contornos laterais nos oceanos desempenham no clima. Os experimentos consideram um planeta idealizado, coberto por um oceano de profundidade constante, onde barreiras com um ponto de grade de espessura foram gradualmente adicionadas. Esta série de experimentos permitiram investigar vários aspectos do sistema acoplado em termos de seu equilíbrio e variabilidade, finalizando com a análise dos efeitos devidos ao Fluxo da Indonésia. Ao invés de investigar os impactos que este fluxo tem sobre o clima atual, o que tem sido bastante explorado em experimentos numéricos nas últimas décadas, a investigação é feita num clima alternativo, que configura um possível cenário durante períodos glaciais. Foi encontrado que a mudança na origem das águas que compõem o Fluxo da Indonésia altera em vários aspectos seus impactos como são conhecidos no clima atual. Em suma, o Fluxo da Indonésia atua dentro de um mecanismo de gangorra inter-hemisférica na circulação termoalina no sentido de reestabelecer a fase anterior desse mecanismo tipo gangorra.

Experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model using idealized topographies were run to investigate aspects of the role that the lateral ocean constraints play in the climate. The experiments consider an idealized planet covered with a constant deep ocean, where one-grid-wide land barriers were gradually added. The series of experiments allowed the investigation of many aspects of the coupled system equilibrium and variability, ending with an evaluation of the effects of the Indonesian Throughflow. Rather than to investigate the throughflow\'s impacts in modern climate, which has been largely explored in numerical experiments in the past decades, the throughflow is investigated in an alternative climate, argued as a possible scenario during ice-age periods. It was found that the change in the hemispheric water source of the throughflow affects many aspects of its impact as it is known for modern climate. In summary, the throughflow acts within the inter-basin seesaw in the sense to restore the previous phase of the inter-basin seesaw. / Experimentos com um modelo acoplado oceano-continente-atmosfera-gelo marinho e topografias idealizadas foram empregados para investigar os impactos que contornos laterais nos oceanos desempenham no clima. Os experimentos consideram um planeta idealizado, coberto por um oceano de profundidade constante, onde barreiras com um ponto de grade de espessura foram gradualmente adicionadas. Esta série de experimentos permitiram investigar vários aspectos do sistema acoplado em termos de seu equilíbrio e variabilidade, finalizando com a análise dos efeitos devidos ao Fluxo da Indonésia. Ao invés de investigar os impactos que este fluxo tem sobre o clima atual, o que tem sido bastante explorado em experimentos numéricos nas últimas décadas, a investigação é feita num clima alternativo, que configura um possível cenário durante períodos glaciais. Foi encontrado que a mudança na origem das águas que compõem o Fluxo da Indonésia altera em vários aspectos seus impactos como são conhecidos no clima atual. Em suma, o Fluxo da Indonésia atua dentro de um mecanismo de gangorra inter-hemisférica na circulação termoalina no sentido de reestabelecer a fase anterior desse mecanismo tipo gangorra.

A esquistossomose à uma doenÃa parasitÃria, provocada por vermes trematÃdeos do gÃnero Schistosoma. à uma endemia mundial, ocorrendo em 74 paÃses e territÃrios, principalmente na AmÃrica do Sul, Caribe, Ãfrica e Leste do MediterrÃneo, onde atinge as regiÃes do Delta do Nilo, alÃm de paÃses como Egito e SudÃo. Entre as parasitoses humanas mais disseminadas no mundo, a esquistossomose ocupa o segundo lugar (perdendo apenas para a malÃria), constituindo, no Brasil, um de seus mais graves problemas de saÃde pÃblica. A transmissÃo do Schistosoma mansoni depende do inter-relacionamento entre o ecossistema, as pessoas e suas condiÃÃes sociais. Grandes projetos de engenharia que causam alteraÃÃes no meio ambiente costumam criar condiÃÃes satisfatÃrias para o aparecimento de fatores de risco de introduÃÃo e disseminaÃÃo de doenÃas nas comunidades afetadas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi construir uma linha de base dos municÃpios atingidos por dois grandes projetos de infra-estrutura hÃdrica: A integraÃÃo de Bacias do Rio SÃo Francisco nos limites do estado do Cearà e o EixÃo das Ãguas do CearÃ, e as implicaÃÃes sobre a transmissÃo de Esquistossomose MansÃnica. Os municÃpios pertencentes a Ãrea de InfluÃncia Direta dos projetos envolvidos foram: Alto Santo, Baixio, Barro, Brejo Santo, Cascavel, Caucaia, Chorozinho, Horizonte, IcÃ, Itaitinga, Jaguaribara, Jaguaribe, Jati, Lavras da Mangabeira, MaracanaÃ, Mauriti, MissÃo Velha, Morada Nova, Ocara, Pacajus, Pacatuba, Pena Forte, Russas, SÃo GonÃalo do Amarante e Umari. Foram utilizados indicadores sÃcio-demogrÃficos, sÃcio-econÃmicos, educacionais, ambientais e de saÃde. A anÃlise dos dados sÃcio-demogrÃficos e sÃcio-econÃmicos revelou que os municÃpios prÃximos a RegiÃo Metropolitana de Fortaleza apresentaram os melhores indicadores. O hospedeiro intermediÃrio B. straminea encontra-se disseminado em todos os 25 municÃpios dos quais 6 apresentaram casos de esquistossomose mansÃnica no perÃodo de 2001 a 2006. Somente 8 municÃpios sÃo trabalhados pelo Programa Estadual de Controle da Esquistossomose com prevalÃncia variando de 0,1 a 0,8 % com o municÃpio de Maracanaà apresentando a maior prevalÃncia (0,8%). Cinco municÃpios da AID apresentaram Ãbito por esquistossomose no perÃodo de 2001 a 2009, destes 3 nÃo sÃo trabalhados pelo PCE. A produÃÃo de espaÃos potenciais para a transmissÃo da esquistossomose na AID decorrentes da implementaÃÃo do referidos projetos de transposiÃÃo de bacias necessita ser mensurado. / Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease caused by trematode worms of the genus Schistosoma. It is a worldwide endemic disease, occurring in 74 countries and territories, mainly in South America, the Caribbean, Africa and Eastern Mediterranean, where it reaches the regions of the Nile Delta, along with countries like Egypt and Sudan Among the most widespread parasitic infections in human world, schistosomiasis ranks second (second only to malaria), constituting, in Brazil, one of its most serious public health problems. The transmission of Schistosoma mansoni depends on the inter-relationship between the ecosystem, people and their social conditions. Large engineering projects that cause environmental changes often create good conditions for the emergence of risk factors for introduction and spread of diseases in the affected communities. The objective of this study was to build a baseline of the municipalities affected by two major projects of water infrastructure: The integration of the SÃo Francisco River Basin within the limits of the state of Ceara and EixÃo Waters of CearÃ, and the implications on the transmission Schistosomiasis mansoni. The municipalities in the Area of Direct Influence of the projects involved were: Alto Santo, Baixio, Barro, Brejo Santo, Cascavel, Caucaia, Chorozinho, Horizonte, IcÃ, Itaitinga, Jaguaribara, Jaguaribe, Jati, Lavras da Mangabeira, MaracanaÃ, Mauriti, MissÃo Velha, Morada Nova, Ocara, Pacajus, Pacatuba, Pena Forte, Russas, SÃo GonÃalo do Amarante e Umari. Indicators were used socio-demographic, socioeconomic, educational, and environmental health. The socio-demographic and socioeconomic analysis revealed that the municipalities close to the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza were the best indicators. The intermediate host Biomphalaria straminea is widespread in all 25 municipalities of which 6 were cases of schistosomiasis in the period 2001 to 2006.Only eight counties are handled by the State Program for the Control of Schistosomiasis with prevalence ranging from 0.1 to 0.8% with the town of Maracanaà presenting the highest prevalence (0.8%). Five municipalities ADI (area of direct influence) had died of schistosomiasis in the period 2001 to 2009, these three are not operated by the State Program for the Control of Schistosomiasis. The production potential spaces for the transmission of schistosomiasis in the ADI following the implementation of these projects watershed transposition needs to be measured.

This dissertation is composed of three essays investigating three aspects of future water issues. The first essay focuses on an examination of water scarcity issues caused by rapid population growth and economic development in Texas. The second essay examines water scarcity under climate change scenarios in Texas. The third essay discusses arsenic-related water quality issues in the drinking water. An integrated economic, hydrological, and environmental model is developed for the first two essays by implicitly incorporating uncertainty about future climate, water demand from all types of water use, a spatial river flow relationship, interaction between ground and surface water, institutional regulations, and the possibilities of inter-basin water transfers (IBTs). In studying water scarcity under economic growth and population growth, we find that while some cities and counties have sufficient water, there are some other cities and counties (especially Dallas, Fort Worth and Austin) facing different degrees of water scarcity problems. In studying the climate change impact, four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRESs) yield consistent results. Water scarcity becomes even more severe for cities. Texas realizes slight gains in earlier periods and a net loss beginning in 2060. This study finds that twelve IBTs, if there is no climate change, and fourteen IBTs, under the climate change scenario, will be economically feasible in 2060. These IBTs can not only greatly reduce water scarcity, but also create new growth opportunity for Houston. Water is transferred from in-stream flow in source basins. There is no significant impact on other sectors except in-stream flow and water flow out to bay. In the third essay, a two-stage structural model is developed to model household risk-averting behavior with respect to arsenic-related mortality risk in the drinking water. The empirical results suggest that risk perceptions for the parents and children are important in the decision of how much to spend on water treatment, but not in whether or not to treat water. Parents in our sample displayed mixed altruism. The information generated by this dissertation can help state agencies to manage water resources and to improve water-related human health, especially health for children, more effectively and more efficiently.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa‟s hydrological and geographical characteristics, coupled with the location of a large part of its mineral endowment, required the development of the complex Vaal River Supply System, including inter-basin water transfer (IBT) projects which have been in operation for over twenty-five years. This research compares the actual water transfers of two such IBTs with their original, appraisal stage, predictions. Transfers are shown to be significantly less and also more variable than predicted. Further research reveals that the state of the receiving system has a large bearing on year-to-year decisions regarding transfers. Past appraisals, following what is called the Incremental Approach, do not adequately consider the likely future inter-basin transfer operating regime. Examination of six case studies, four South African, one Chinese and one Australian, shows that the Incremental Approach is still in general use – despite tools available for an improved approach. A new approach is proposed to upgrade estimations of variable costs associated with water transfers – often substantial life-cycle cost components of IBTs. The generally used unit reference value (URV) measure for appraising and ranking water resource projects in South Africa is also rooted in the economic theory of cost-effectiveness. This shows that the current approach is conceptually flawed; it fails to distinguish between water transfers and effectiveness outputs. The determination of the URV equation is expanded and improved. The upgraded appraisal approach, inclusive of the improved URV methodology, is named the Comprehensive Approach. A step-wise demonstration of the Comprehensive Approach is provided. Uncertainty regarding future water transfers and associated variable costs are provided for by stochastic simulation modelling. Decision analysis theory is applied to obtain the appropriate input value of variable costs. It is shown that the Comprehensive Approach can lead to an outcome significantly different from the Incremental Approach. The research provides new insights, placing water resource planning practitioners in a better position to recommend appropriate IBTs in future. These insights can also be transferred to the design of institutional and financial models related to IBTs, as well as the configuration and operation of supply systems including sea-water desalination projects. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrika se hidrologiese en geografiese eienskappe, gekoppel aan die ligging van 'n groot deel van sy minerale bates, het gelei tot die ontwikkeling van die komplekse Vaalrivier Voorsieningstelsel, insluitend tussen-bekken oordragskemas waarvan sommige al vir meer as vyf-en-twintig jaar in werking is. Hierdie navorsing vergelyk die werklike wateroordragte van twee sulke oordragskemas met die oorspronklike vooruitskattings tydens die beplanning-stadium. Daar word getoon dat oordragte noemenswaardig minder en ook meer onreëlmatig was as wat voorspel is. Verdere ondersoek toon dat die stand van die stelsel, aan die ontvangskant, die besluitneming rakende die jaar-tot-jaar oordrag beïnvloed het. Historiese evaluerings het 'n “Inkrementele Benadering” (soos hier genoem) gevolg, wat nie voldoende die toekomstige bedryfsomgewing ten opsigte van tussen-bekken oordragte inagneem nie. Ondersoek van ses gevalstudies, vier Suid-Afrikaans, een Sjinees en een Australies, toon dat die Inkrementele Benadering nog algemeen in gebruik is, ten spyte daarvan dat hulpmiddels vir 'n verbeterde benadering beskikbaar is. 'n Nuwe benadering word voorgestel vir die verbetering van vooruitskattings van veranderlike koste wat met wateroordragte geassosieer word – dikwels 'n aansienlike gedeelte van die lewenssiklus-koste van sodanige skemas. Die Eenheidverwysingswaarde (EVW) maatstaf, wat algemeen in Suid-Afrika gebruik word om waterbronprojekte te beoordeel en in rangorde te plaas, word ook geanker in die ekonomiese teorie van koste-effektiwiteit. Daarmee word getoon dat die huidige gebruik van die EVW konsepsioneel gebrekkig is; dit tref nie 'n onderskeid tussen wateroordragte en effektiwiteitsuitsette nie. Die bepaling van die EVW vergelyking is verbreed en verbeter. Die opgegradeerde benadering, met insluiting van die verbeterde EVW metodiek, word die Omvattende Benadering genoem. 'n Stapsgewyse uiteensetting van die Omvattende Benadering word voorsien. Onsekerhede ten opsigte van wateroordragte en geassosieerde veranderlike koste word deur middel van stogastiese modellering aangespreek. Besluitnemingontledingsteorie word ingespan om die toepaslike insetwaarde van die veranderlike koste te bepaal. Daar word getoon dat die Omvattende Benadering tot 'n resultaat kan lei wat aansienlik verskil van wat met die Inkrementele Benadering verkry word. Die navorsing verskaf nuwe insigte wat die waterbronbeplanner in 'n beter posisie sal plaas om gepaste tussen-bekken oordragskemas voor te stel. Hierdie insigte kan ook oorgedra word na die ontwerp van institusionele en finansiële modelle rakende oordragskemas, asook die uitleg en bedryf van voorsieningstelsels, insluitend seewater-ontsoutingsaanlegte.

From the Proceedings of the 1971 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 22-23, 1971, Tempe, Arizona / The Colorado River is the only major stream in the U.S. whose water supply is fully utilized. This distinction has brought the Colorado more than its share of controversy, within states, between states and between nations. The Colorado River compact, whose purpose was to equitably apportion the waters between the upper and lower basins and to provide protection for the upper basin through water reservation, was ratified by all states except Arizona, in 1923. Arizona finally ratified it in 1944. The history of controversies and negotiation concerning the compact are outlined through the supreme court decision on march 9, 1964, which entitled California to 4.4 maf, Nevada to 0.3 maf and Arizona to 2.8 maf, of the first 7.5 maf available in the lower Colorado. Unfortunately, the court did not attempt to establish priorities in the event of shortage. The problem is complicated by an international treaty of 1944, guaranteeing Mexico 1.5 maf annually, except in years of unusual circumstances. Because Senator Connally of Texas was then chairman of the senate foreign relations committee and because the treaty allocated twice as much Colorado River water to Mexico as it was then using, it was argued that this treaty represented a tradeoff to Mexico, giving it less water from the Rio Grande in exchange for more water from the overburdened Colorado. Problems of inter-basin water transfer studies, uniform Colorado basin water quality standards and central Arizona project planning are discussed.

From the Proceedings of the 1978 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 14-15, 1978, Flagstaff, Arizona / Combined urban, agricultural, industrial and mining groundwater withdrawal from the Santa Cruz River Basin exceeds natural aquifer replenishment by 74,000 acre -feet annually. Four ameliorative water management alternatives are presented singly and in combination with one another. These alternatives are importing Colorado River water, exchanging treated effluent with mining and agricultural interests for groundwater, interbasin water transfer, and retiring farmlands for groundwater rights. These management philosophies are applicable to most economically emergent urban areas in arid and semiarid regions.

Southern Africa generally has an arid climate and many hydrologists are predicting an increase in water scarcity over time. This research seeks to understand the implications of this in socio-political terms. The study is cross-disciplinary, examining how policy interventions can be used to solve the problem caused by the interaction between hydrology and demography. The conclusion is that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is perceived as the problem by policy-makers. Instead, water scarcity is the manifestation of the problem, with root causes being a combination of climate change, population growth and misallocation of water within the economy due to a desire for national self-sufficiency in agriculture. The solution lies in the trade of products with a high water content, also known as 'virtual water'. Research on this specific issue is called for by the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)

Southern Africa generally has an arid climate and many hydrologists are predicting an increase in water scarcity over time. This research seeks to understand the implications of this in socio-political terms. The study is cross-disciplinary, examining how policy interventions can be used to solve the problem caused by the interaction between hydrology and demography. The conclusion is that water scarcity is not the actual problem, but is perceived as the problem by policy-makers. Instead, water scarcity is the manifestation of the problem, with root causes being a combination of climate change, population growth and misallocation of water within the economy due to a desire for national self-sufficiency in agriculture. The solution lies in the trade of products with a high water content, also known as 'virtual water'. Research on this specific issue is called for by the White Paper on Water Policy for South Africa. / Political Sciences / M.A. (International Politics)