What triggers political unrest under International Monetary Fund (IMF) programmes? Why do we see unrest - protests, strikes, and riots - in some countries under IMF programmes and not in others? This thesis argues that IMF labour conditionality in an immobile labour market compounded by intrusive fiscal conditionality and blocked democratic channels result in unrest. Where labour is immobile in the borrowing country, IMF labour conditionality decentralising the market creates large-scale grievances among the labour groups. Immobile labour groups substantially lose income and benefits under those measures due to high wage differentials and varied labour protection measures across sectors. Moreover, uncertainty and risks increase, while the opportunities to return back to employment or to maintain the existing income and benefits diminish. When the political authority is unable to address the rising grievances due to tight fiscal conditionality and blocked democratic channels, we observe political unrest under IMF programmes. Where labour is mobile, on the other hand, it is easier for workers to switch between sectors and jobs when the economic crisis hits their sector. The labour groups respond to the internal crisis and the external impact by increasing mobility and switching to the sectors that are still growing despite the crisis. Labour conditions do not give rise to a similar degree of uncertainty and risks compared to immobile markets. Hence, programmes are implemented without large-scale unrest. The study tests this theory in a global sample of 117 countries between 1970 and 2013 and investigates the impact of mobility and IMF conditionality on unrest with a data set originally compiled and coded for this study. It then delves into two extreme cases, Greece, 2010 and Turkey, 2001. While Greece had extreme immobility and received intrusive labour and fiscal conditionality in 2010, Turkey is located on the opposite end of the spectrum, with very high levels of mobility, the limited number of labour conditions, and greater fiscal space. We see that while Greece witnessed large-scale unrest in 2010, Turkey implemented the programme smoothly. Finally, the study applies the theory into three shadow cases, Ireland, 2010, Latvia, 2008, and Portugal, 2011 and demonstrates that the varied degrees of mobility and conditionality and fiscal conditionality result in different degrees of unrest.

Orientador: Jose Carlos de Souza Braga / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T12:10:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bueno_FabioMarvulle_M.pdf: 708476 bytes, checksum: b0c673a7ce0d2ab6d303fc22f7ad184c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: Este trabalho analisa as transformações na economia brasileira decorrentes dos acordos com o Fundo Monetário Internacional entre 1998 e 2002, focando as mudanças de papel desempenhado pelo Fundo na evolução da economia internacional e as repercussões em um dos principais instrumentos da instituição, as condicionalidades. Analisa também as características gerais dos acordos de 1998, 2001 e 2002, destacando tanto o processo de internalização dos parâmetros dos acordos, pelo uso das condicionalidades, visando a eliminação da discricionaridade da política econômica em relação às principais características da macroeconomia brasileira do período / Abstract: This dissertation analyses the transformations in Brazilian economy as a result of International Monetary Fund programs from 1998 to 2002, emphasizing the role change played by Fund in evolution of the international economy and the repercussions in one of the main instruments of the institution: conditionalities. It also analyses the general characteristics of the agreements in 1998, 2001 and 2002, with emphasis in the process of internationalizing the agreement, by using conditionalities, in order to eliminate the discricionarity of political economy, as well as the main characteristics of the Brazilian macroeconomy in this period / Mestrado / Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Magister Legum - LLM

Foreign direct investment amongst other mechanisms provides capital inflow meant to stimulate economic growth. Apart from promoting economic growth, FDI can also lead to increase in employment, technology, technical knowhow and managerial skills. South Africa has implemented various policy initiatives in attempts to attract foreign investment. This study investigates on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth, with particular reference to the South African economy. The period of study is from 1980 to 2010. The study begins by reviewing literature on economic growth and foreign direct investment. South Africa’s macroeconomic background is examined to determine the trends in FDI inflows and economic growth. An empirical model linking theoretical and empirical literature on the effect of FDI on economic growth is estimated using the Johansen cointegration and VECM framework. Variables specified in the methodology include real gross domestic product (RGDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment (INVE), real exchange rate (REXCH) and foreign marketable debt (DEBT). The long run results showed that FDI, REXCH and DEBT have a negative impact on growth. INVE has a positive impact on growth. Short run results indicated that there is no strong pressure on RGDP to restore long-run equilibrium whenever there is a disturbance. The short run lag of FDI was found to exert a positive impact on growth. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis complemented the long and short-run findings. Shocks on REXCH, and DEBT generated a negative response on RGDP. The shocks were not significantly different from zero and were transitory. Results from the variance decomposition analysis revealed that the fundamentals explain some, but not all, of the variations of RGDP. For the fifth year forecast error variance RGDP explains the largest component of the variation followed by INVE, REXCH, FDI and DEBT. After a period of ten years, the influence of RGDP and INVE declines, whereas REXCH, FDI and DEBT increase. Conclusions and policy recommendations were made using these results.

Thesis analyses role of International Monetary Fund in currency crises its proceedings and instruments and thereof arising criticism. In the first chapter there are stated definitions of currency crises, described their causes and possibilities of prevention. Short description of the Fund and used instruments in its operations are also included. The main focus is on analysis of the approach of the IMF to significant currency crises since 1990's. Mexican, south-east Asian, Argentinean and Icelandic crises are analyzed. As a practical aspect of the thesis approach of the IMF to currency crisis in the Czech republic in 1997 is examined as well. In analysis there is always stated overall description of the crisis, approach of the IMF to mitigation of the crisis and thereof arising experts' criticism. In the last chapter there is analysis of certain reports and commissions that dealt with Fund's operations and suggested reforms. Experts' opinions (Kenen, Sedlacek, Jonas) of the IMF's functioning and its summary are also part of the chapter.

International organizations (IOs) operate in increasingly dense institutional networks. This means that IOs rarely act in isolation; instead, their decisions are shaped by the activities performed by other IOs in their issue area. However, existing literature focuses primarily on how individual IOs can solve cooperation problems in a vacuum. How and when can IOs broadly, and U.S.-led liberal IOs in particular, effectively pursue their mandates against the backdrop of institutional crowding? In a three-paper dissertation, I probe the evolution of multilateral cooperation networks and how they structure policymaking in liberal IOs. To explore these dynamics, I construct an extensive, hand-coded dataset of cooperation between organizations in the development and emergency lending issue spaces 1945-2018. This coding draws on the contents of thousands of organizational policy papers, program documents, and press releases. I then leverage quantitative methods, text analysis, and network modeling to analyze these data. I supplement the empirical results with semi-structured interviews and experimental research designs. While existing work suggests that IOs must make concessions to member states to prevent them from shopping between institutions or else restrict their mandates to reclaim monopoly authority, I show that IOs can achieve their mandates and combat complexity through cooperation. In the first paper, I show that such cooperation materializes most easily between IOs whose leading stakeholders are geopolitically aligned. This is because multilateral staff are selected and socialized by leading shareholders to hold beliefs similar to their own. In the second and third papers, I show how cooperation enables IOs to enforce more stringent policies and improve operational performance. On the whole, then, I show that U.S.-led IOs like the World Bank and IMF can coerce welfare-enhancing reforms in target states and promote good governance by cooperating with other organizations in their issue spaces, though geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and other leading IO member states may be obstructive.

Just twenty years after its entry into the World Bank and IMF, China had joined over 50 international organizations (IO) and had become involved with 1,275 international non-governmental organizations (INGOS). Previously one of the least connected states in the world, China is now one of the most connected on the measure of IO membership. Importantly, China’s behavior within IOs has “varied from symbolic to substantive” at various stages in its global participation. Consequently, China has exhibited a dichotomy of puzzling behavior in its interaction in IOs. Sometimes it complies when doing so appeared counter to internal interests, while other times it has undermined organizations it has greatly benefited from. These patterns have not always been consistent either since its participation has varied over time within different organizations. Why does China’s behavior within these organizations vary? Why does China join or create new IOs when it is already a member of a similar organization? I build upon a diverse body of political science research arguing that China looks beyond the satisficing aspect of whether the IO is good enough, and more to how its behavior can optimize achieving its desired interests. My theory posits that in the context of relative shifts in power, variation in China’s IO behaviors is predicated by the extent to which IOs conform to China’s national interests. This rational behavior approach (RBA) outlines four strategies: rule-taking, rule-breaking, rule-changing, and rulemaking. Furthermore, I argue that as an emerging state’s relative power increases over time, so does its bargaining power, leading to a more assertive rule-changing behavior as it attempts to adapt the organization to allow its ascendancy as a rule-maker. My research explores 40 years of the PRC’s participation within the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund drawing from semi-structured, in-depth interviews with WB China directors, IMF China directors, the Chief Counsel for AIIB’s establishment, a WB president, Department of Treasury and State representatives, and Chinese nationals who have held key positions in both WB and IMF staff. This research also includes reviews of secondary literature exploring China’s interaction within these organizations and analysis of 40 years of annual reports, consultations, and transcripts obtained from archived organizational records. / Political Science

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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005. / Some digitised pages may appear illegible due to the condition of the original hard copy. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Today, the issue of poverty reduction is central to the development process. This is particularly so because developing countries and the donors that prop up many of these countries' economies have come to realize that not all impressive economic gains, where they occur in the developing countries, are translated into improvement in the people's welfare. The Bretton Woods institutions have also been under attack from an everincreasing body of research for neoliberal policies that inform their prescriptions to poor clients. It is alleged that the IMFlWorld Bank's conditionalities and austerity measures have exacerbated poverty in developing countries. The main issue in this study is whether the IMFlWorld Bank policy prescriptions to Uganda have led to economic growth and helped to pull the country out of poverty or whether they have impoverished its people even further. The other question for this research to answer is whether poverty in Uganda is on the increase or whether it is just a matter of perception. This study is based on information obtained from various books, academic journals and papers, NGO reports, government publications, electronic media reports, and IMFlWorld Bank working papers and reports. This study has been able to observe that the Bretton Woods institutions have succeeded in revitalizing Uganda's economy, although the country is yet to see sustainable economic growth. Although the privatization process was riddled with corruption, the country benefited from the reforms through efficiency gains. Similarly, people who grow only food crops have not benefited from liberalization, but those who grow cashcrops (except cotton) have generally benefited from it. The study has confirmed that some of the Bretton Woods institutions' conditionalities, e.g. retrenchment, have caused poverty among some Ugandans and cost sharing has increased the severity of poverty among Uganda's poor. The study has also confirmed that the inequality gap has widened. The income poverty that was receding between 1992 and 1997 has since 2000 made a comeback. The study also reveals that other qualitative forms of poverty e.g. powerlessness and social seclusion, are widespread in Uganda. However, the study has not found sufficient evidence to directly link the increasing poverty in Uganda to the Bretton Woods institutions' policies. Finally, it is recommended that to mitigate the effects of poverty, the release of poverty reduction funds should not be pegged on conditionality. However, conditionality should be imposed on non-essential government expenditure. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING Armoedeverligting is vandag 'n kernkwessie in die ontwikkelingsproses. Hierdie waarneming is spesifiek van belang deurdat ontwikkelelende lande, en die skenkers wat sommige van hierdie ekonomieë steun, besef het dat indrukwekkende ekonomiese vooruitgang nie noodwendig tot 'n verbetering in lewens-standaarde lei nie. Die Bretton Woods instellings word al hoe meer gekritiseer oor hulle voorskriftelike neoliberale beleide. Daar word beweer dat die IMFlWêreldbank se voorwaardes en onbuigbaarheid reeds gelei het tot armoede in sommige ontwikkelende lande. Die hoof-ondersoek in hierdie studie handeloor die vraag of die IMF/ Wêreldbank-beleidsvoorskrifte Uganda aangespoor het tot ekonomiese groei en so gehelp het om die land uit armoede to help, en of dit nie dalk die landsburgers verder verarm het nie. Die tweede vraagstuk in hierdie studie is of armoede aan die toeneem is in Uganda en of dit dalk nie net 'n kwessie van persepsie is nie. Die navorsing vir hierdie werkstuk is gebaseer op verskeie boeke, akademiese joernaal-artikels en refererate, verslae van nie-winsjagende organisasie, regeringspublikasies, elektronies media verslae, en IMFlWêreldbank konsepartikels en verslae. Die studie het gevind dat die Bretton Woods instellings wel daarin geslaag het om lewe te blaas in die Ugandese ekonomie, maar dat die land steeds nie volhoubare ekonomiese groei behaal het nie. Hoewel korrupsie in die privatiseringsproses die sukses daarvan beperk het, het die land wel voordeel getrek uit vooruitgang in doeltreffendheid. Boere wat voedselgewasse plant vir plaaslike markte, het nie veel baat gevind by liberalisering nie terwyl diegene wat kontantgewasse (maar nie katoen) aangeplant het, het wel voordeel getrek uit liberalisering. Die studie het bevestig dat sommige van die Bretton Woods instellings se voorwaardes, byvoorbeeld afdankings en koste-deling, armoede veroorsaak het of die graad daarvan vererger het onder Uganda se armes. Die studie staaf ook verder dat die armoede-gaping groter geraak het. Die inkomste-armoede wat gekrimp het tussen 1992 en 1997, het sedert 2000 weer verskyn. Die studie onthulook dat ander kwalitatiewe vorms van armoede, bv. magteloosheid en sosiale uitsluiting, wydverspreid voorkom in Uganda. Die studie het egter nie genoeg bewyse gevind om die groeiende armoede direk te koppel aan die Bretton Woods instellings se beleide nie.